Assumptions related to small business resilience

FOI reference: FOI-2025-3113

You asked

Please provide any internal documentation, briefing notes, modelling frameworks, or analyst guidance used by the Office for National Statistics between January 2020 and August 2025 that outline assumptions related to small business (under 50 employees) resilience in economic modelling or forecasting.

Specifically, I am seeking:

• Assumptions used to estimate SME survival rates during economic shocks (e.g. COVID-19, inflation, energy price spikes)
• Variables or thresholds used to define SME vulnerability or resilience (e.g. cash reserves, staffing levels, sector volatility)
• Any internal scoring, weighting, or segmentation logic applied to SMEs in scenario planning or stress testing
• Documentation showing how SME data was incorporated into macroeconomic models or policy simulations

If available, please include any unpublished modelling notes, internal slide decks, or analyst briefing materials. I would prefer the information in a structured format (e.g. PDF, Word, or Excel) where possible.

We said

Thank you for your request.

We do not produce assumptions for small businesses resilience and do not undertake any economic modelling or forecasting. All information relating to any size of business are based on data collected (or administrative data), processed and aggregated to produce estimates on recorded activity. 

We do not specifically ask businesses for information on survival rates, however our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) does ask businesses a range of questions related to cash reserves, worker shortages and recruitment. 

The associated download contains a spreadsheet, which provides details for all businesses (including those with less than 50 employment) for the following: 

• How long do you expect your business's cash reserves will last? 
• How did the number of employees at your business in December 2023 compare with the previous calendar month? 
• What are your business's expectations for the number of employees in September 2025? 
• Is your business currently experiencing a shortage of workers?  
• Did your business experience any difficulties recruiting employees in July 2025? 
• How does your business's ability to fill vacancies in the last month compare with normal expectations for this time of year? 
• Why did your business find filling vacancies more difficult, over the last month, compared with normal expectations for this time of year? 

The data is from 2020 (or when the question was first asked) to 2025. Further data over different time periods and for different questions can be found on our BICS dataset page.