Crime in England and Wales: year ending September 2019

Following a long-term reduction, levels of crime have remained broadly stable in recent years. While in the latest year there has been no change in overall levels of crime, this hides variation seen in individual crime types.

The latest figures from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) show continued rises in overall fraud, with a 9% increase in the year ending September 2019, driven by a rise in “bank and credit account fraud”. All other main crime types measured by the CSEW showed no change, including lower-harm violent offences (for example, violence without injury and assault with minor injury).

Police recorded crime data give more insight into the lower-volume but higher-harm violence that the survey either does not cover or does not capture well.

For the year ending September 2019 in England and Wales (excluding Greater Manchester Police) these data show:

• a 6% decrease in the overall number of homicides following a period of increases
• no percentage change in the number of police recorded offences involving firearms
• a 7% increase in the number of offences involving knives or sharp instruments

Many of these lower-volume, higher-harm types of violence tend to be concentrated in metropolitan areas such as London, the West Midlands and West Yorkshire.

While the total number of offences involving knives or sharp instruments in England and Wales (excluding GMP) increased by 7%, there was a mixed picture across police forces. For example, there has been little change in London and a decrease in West Yorkshire. In addition, the number of homicides where a knife or sharp instrument was involved decreased by 20%. This decrease was mainly driven by falls in London.

Although the most recent estimate of theft offences measured by the CSEW showed no change in the latest year, there was an 8% increase when compared with the year ending March 2017. While the CSEW provides the better indication of overall trends in theft offences, police recorded crime data can help identify short-term changes in individual offences that are thought to be well-reported and relatively well-recorded by the police. In the latest year these data show a mixed picture with:

• a 4% increase in vehicle offences, which includes a 5% rise in the subcategory of “theft or unauthorised taking of a motor vehicle”
• a 12% increase in robbery
• a 4% decrease in burglary

Statistician's comment

Commenting on today’s figures, Helen Ross from the Office for National Statistics Centre for Crime and Justice said:

“In the last year there has been no change in overall levels of crime, however, this hides variations in different types of crime. For example, there have been continued rises in fraud, vehicle offences and robbery, and decreases in burglary and homicide.

“Although the number of offences involving a knife has continued to increase, there is a mixed picture across police forces and overall levels of violence remain steady. We have also seen the number of homicides where a knife or sharp instrument was used decrease by a fifth, driven by falls in London.”

This bulletin reports on two main sources of crime data; the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) and police recorded crime. For further information on these sources see Measuring this data and Strengths and limitations.

The CSEW estimated that over 10.9 million offences¹ were experienced by adults aged 16 years and over in the year ending September 2019. The CSEW also measures the prevalence of crime, with the latest estimates showing that 8 in 10 adults did not experience any of the crimes asked about in the survey in the previous 12 months.²

There have been no statistically significant changes in total CSEW crime over the last two years. However, it is important to look at individual crime types as the relatively stable overall picture hides variation both within and across crime types.

The police recorded 5.8 million crimes in England and Wales (excluding Greater Manchester Police)³ in the year ending September 2019. These data provide a good measure of the crime-related demand on the police but are not a measure of all crime and should not be used to measure changes in the level of crime. Rises seen over recent years indicate a different trend to the CSEW, and reflect a combination of factors, including continuing improvements to police recording processes and practices, more victims reporting crime, and genuine increases in some types of crime.

For the latest headline figures relating to CSEW and police recorded crime, and for detailed figures including time series see Appendix tables.

For a more detailed commentary of both CSEW and police recorded crime see our annual Crime in England and Wales: year ending March 2019 bulletin.

Figure 2: Overview of the main crime types

England and Wales, year ending September 2019

Source: Office for National Statistics – Crime Survey for England and Wales, Home Office - Police recorded crime

Notes:

1. Data on violence, theft, fraud and computer misuse are from the Crime Survey for England and Wales and relate to adults aged 16 years and over.

2. Data on homicide, knife or sharp instruments, burglary, vehicle offences and robbery are from police recorded crime.

3. Police recorded crime data are not designated as National Statistics.

4. Police recorded crime data for the year ending September 2019 exclude Greater Manchester Police (GMP).

5. Data on knife or sharp instrument offences exclude GMP for the whole timeseries back to the year ending March 2011.

6. No change indicates no significant change in the last year.

Notes for: Overall estimates of crime

1. For more details about what is covered in the CSEW, see Strengths and limitations.

2. This figure excludes domestic abuse and sexual assault measured by the self-completion module of the survey. Any domestic violence reported in the face-to-face interview is included.

3. Police recorded crime data for Greater Manchester Police are not included in this release because of issues with their data supply following the implementation of new IT systems.

For the offences and population that it covers, the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) provides the best measure of trends for overall violent crime; particularly for the more common but less harmful offences (for example, assault with minor injury).

There were 1.3 million incidents of violence estimated by the CSEW for the year ending September 2019. This figure has not changed significantly since the year ending March 2015, continuing the relatively stable trend seen in recent years.

The longer-term reductions in CSEW violent crime are reflected in research conducted by the Violence Research Group at Cardiff University (PDF, 652KB), and also in admissions data for NHS hospitals¹ in England.

For more detailed figures relating to violent crime including time series see Appendix tables.

Notes for: Violent crime

1. Please see the “External causes” datasets within Hospital Admitted Patient Care Activity 2018-19 for assault admissions.

The police recorded 617 homicides¹ in England and Wales (excluding Greater Manchester Police)² in the year ending September 2019, a 6% fall (from 654) compared with the previous year. This includes a 7% decrease (from 138 to 129) recorded by the Metropolitan Police Service in the latest year. The rate of homicide in the population remains very low, at 11 per 1 million people.

The number of homicides where a knife or sharp instrument was involved decreased by 20% in the year ending September 2019 (to 221 offences). Of all recorded homicides in the latest year, 40% involved a knife or sharp instrument, a similar proportion to the previous year. The recent reduction in such offences was driven by falls seen in London, where the Metropolitan Police Service recorded a 18% reduction to 71 homicides involving a knife or sharp instrument compared with the previous 12 months. This figure was down from 87 recorded in the previous year but was higher than the 56 recorded in the year ending March 2017.

For the latest headline figures relating to homicide and more detailed figures including time series see Appendix tables and Other related tables. For Police Force Area breakdowns see Police Force Area data tables.

Notes for: Homicide

1. Homicide includes the offences of murder, manslaughter, corporate manslaughter and infanticide.

2. Police recorded crime data for Greater Manchester Police are not included in this release because of issues with their data supply following the implementation of new IT systems.

Police recorded crime provides the best measure of higher-harm but less common types of violence, such as those involving a knife or sharp instrument.

Figures for the year ending September 2019 showed a 7% rise in offences involving knives or sharp instruments recorded by the police (to 44,771 offences).¹ This is 46% higher than when comparable recording began (year ending March 2011) and the highest on record.

The change in the number of offences involving knives or sharp instruments in the latest year varied by police force. For example, looking at the three areas with the highest rate per 100,000 population:

• London saw little change with a 2% increase (compared with a 7% rise in the previous year)
• West Yorkshire saw a decrease of 8%
• West Midlands saw an increase of 17%

In the latest year, the offence “assault with injury and assault with intent to cause serious harm” accounted for almost half of all offences involving a knife or sharp instrument (45% or 20,044 offences). Robberies accounted for a further 43% (19,431 offences).

Knife or sharp instrument offences continue to be concentrated in metropolitan areas with around a third (34%) of all offences recorded by the police across England and Wales in London. The highest rate was seen in London (169 offences per 100,000 population), compared with an England and Wales average of 80 offences per 100,000 population.

Other sources of data can help to provide insight into offences involving knives or sharp instruments. For example, the latest available provisional admissions data for NHS hospitals in England reported 5,069 admissions for assault by a sharp object between April 2018 and March 2019. This is, an increase of 2% compared with the previous year.

Police recorded “possession of an article with a blade or point”² offences also rose by 17%, to 21,563 offences in the year ending September 2019. Trends in this offence can often be influenced by increases in targeted police action, such as increases in stop and searches, which are most likely to occur at times when rises in offences involving knives are seen. Data related to stop and searches can be found in the Home Office publication Police powers and procedures.

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) publish figures on knife and offensive weapon sentencing for England and Wales. The latest published figures show that the criminal justice system formally dealt with the highest number of knife and offensive weapon offences since 2009. While these figures are not directly comparable with those presented in this bulletin, they do reflect the increases seen in police figures.

For data relating to offences involving knives or sharp instruments see Other related tables, for geographic breakdowns see Police Force Area data tables and for sharp instrument homicides see Appendix tables: homicide in England and Wales.

Notes for: Knife or sharp instrument offences

1. Police recorded crime data for Greater Manchester Police are not included in this release because of issues with their data supply following the implementation of new IT systems.

2. Offences of “possession of an article with a blade or point” are covered separately by a specific recorded crime category.

There were 6,144 recorded offences involving firearms in England and Wales (excluding Greater Manchester Police)¹ in the year ending September 2019, a similar figure to the previous year (6,115 offences).

There were decreases seen in offences involving handguns and rifles (1% and 16% respectively). However, these decreases were balanced by increases in imitation firearms² and other firearms³ (3% and 8% respectively). For these less serious weapon types, it is likely that some of these increases reflect improvements in crime recording and that the police are now including these offences when previously they were being excluded.

Detailed data for the year ending March 2019 will be released in Offences involving the use of weapons: data tables in February 2020. For data relating to offences involving firearms see Other related tables.

Notes for: Offences involving firearms

1. Police recorded crime data for Greater Manchester Police are not included in this release because of issues with their data supply following the implementation of new IT systems.

2. Imitation firearms include replica weapons, as well as low-powered weapons which fire small plastic pellets, such as BB guns and soft air weapons.

3. Other firearms include CS gas or pepper spray, stun guns and other weapons.

For some types of crime, increases in the number of police recorded offences are largely because of recording improvements or more victims reporting, rather than a genuine rise in crime.

This effect is particularly pronounced for some types of violence; sexual offences, stalking and harassment, and offences flagged as domestic abuse-related.

Over the last seven years, Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS) have published a range of inspections related to police forces’ crime and incident recording practices. In 2014, Crime recording: making the victim count concluded that 33% of cases involving violence and 26% of sexual offences were not recorded by the police in England and Wales.

The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) provides a better picture of the overall trend in violent crime and a more reliable measure of the long-term trends in sexual assault, stalking and harassment, and domestic abuse.

In the year ending March 2019, the CSEW, the latest data available, estimated that 2.1 million adults aged 16 to 59 years experienced domestic abuse in the last year (1.4 million women and 0.7 million men). There has been little change in the prevalence of domestic abuse in recent years. However, the cumulative effect of small year-on-year changes has resulted in a small, significantly lower prevalence for the year ending March 2019 (6.3%), compared with the year ending March 2005 (8.9%).

Estimates from the CSEW for the year ending March 2019 showed that 2.9% of adults aged 16 to 59 years had been victims of sexual assaults in the last year (including attempted offences). This estimate showed no significant change compared with the previous year (2.7%). Over the past five years, there has been a rise in the prevalence of sexual assault estimated by the survey, with the latest estimate returning to levels similar to those over a decade ago.

In the year ending September 2019 in England and Wales (excluding Greater Manchester Police)¹, there was an increase in the total number of domestic abuse-related offences (up 14% to 725,037) and the number of sexual offences recorded by the police (up 3% to 154,229) compared with the year ending September 2018. These increases are thought to reflect factors related to reporting and recording and do not provide a reliable indication of current trends.

Further information and data related to domestic abuse can be found in Domestic abuse in England and Wales overview: November 2019.

Data related to sexual offences can be found in Sexual offending: victimisation and the path through the criminal justice system.

For more detailed figures relating to violent crime including a time series see Appendix tables.

CSEW data on the prevalence of domestic abuse, sexual assault and stalking can be found Table S42 in Annual supplementary tables.

For more information about HMICFRS and Inspections of police recorded crime and incident data quality see our User guide.

Notes for: Other types of violence

1. Police recorded crime data for Greater Manchester Police are not included in this release because of issues with their data supply following the implementation of new IT systems.

The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) is the most reliable indicator for long-term trends in the more common types of crime experienced by the general population, such as theft.

There were 3.6 million incidents of theft estimated by the CSEW for the survey year ending September 2019. Although there was no overall change in the number of theft offences compared with the previous year, there was an 8% increase in theft offences compared with the year ending March 2017 (3.3 million offences). It is too early to say whether this represents a change in the long-term downward trend.

For the latest headline figures relating to theft and for more detailed figures including time series see Appendix tables. Additional demographic data from the CSEW related to theft can be found in Property crime tables.

Police recorded crime data can give reliable indications of trends in some offences involving theft. For example, domestic burglary and theft of a vehicle are less likely to be affected by the impact of recording improvements, as they are relatively well-reported to (and subsequently recorded by) the police.

Police recorded vehicle offences increased by 4% (to 441,351) in the year ending September 2019, continuing the rising trend seen over the last three years. The latest rise compares with an increase of 3% in the year ending September 2018 but is lower than seen in previous years.

Rises in police recorded robbery offences were evident for the fourth consecutive year, with an increase of 12% (to 82,542 offences) in the year ending September 2019 compared with the previous year. While recording improvements are likely to have contributed to the rise, some of the increase is likely to reflect a real change. Robbery is an acquisitive crime involving violence or the threat of violence that is more likely to be reported by the victim and recorded by the police than some other theft offences.

Figures for the year ending September 2019 show that the number of burglary offences recorded by the police decreased by 4% (to 380,567 offences). This is a larger decrease than the 1% decrease for the year ending September 2018. This contrasts with rises in police recorded burglary offences seen in recent years.

For the latest headline figures relating to burglary, robbery and vehicle theft and more detailed figures including time series see Appendix tables.

The overall volume of criminal damage in the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) has not changed over the last year (1 million offences). The subcategory “criminal damage to a vehicle” also shows no change following a period of decreases over the last 10 years. However, it is too early to say whether this is evidence of a change to the longer-term pattern. The latest figure (705,000 offences in the year ending September 2019) is less than half the volume it was in the year ending December 1995 (1.8 million offences).

Police recorded crime data show a 2% decrease in criminal damage and arson (to 531,662 offences) and a 7% fall in criminal damage to a vehicle (196,790 offences). The differences in criminal damage to a vehicle between the CSEW and police recorded crime could be partly explained by a relatively low reporting rate for this type of offence.

For the latest headline figures relating to criminal damage and more detailed figures including time series data see Appendix tables.

Additional demographic data from the CSEW related to criminal damage can be found in Property crime tables.

The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) provides the best measure of fraud offences experienced by adults in England and Wales. In the year ending September 2019, the estimated number of fraud incidents increased by 9% (to 3.8 million offences) compared with the previous year. The latest increase was driven mainly by a 15% increase in “bank and credit account fraud” (to 2.7 million offences).

Fraud offences referred to the authorities make up a relatively small proportion of the overall volume of fraud. The CSEW captures a large volume of lower-harm cases that are less likely to have been reported to the authorities. Incidents of fraud referred to the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau (NFIB) will include reports from businesses and other organisations, which are not included in the CSEW, and tend to mostly be focused on the more serious cases.

Reported fraud offences are recorded and collated by the NFIB from Action Fraud (the public-facing national fraud and cybercrime reporting centre) and two industry bodies, Cifas and UK Finance (who report instances of fraud where their member organisations have been a victim). Latest figures showed a 19% increase in the total number of fraud offences referred to the NFIB^1,2 in the year ending September 2019 (743,413 offences) compared with the previous year (625,988 offences).

All three fraud reporting bodies: Action Fraud, Cifas, and UK Finance, reported increases in the latest year. Action Fraud reported a 14% rise (to 310,675 offences), Cifas reported a 19% rise (to 333,734 offences) and UK Finance reported a 32% rise (to 99,004 offences). These increases need to be interpreted in the context of differences in coverage and fraud types captured by each reporting body.

Additional fraud data collected by UK Finance provide a broader range of bank account and plastic card frauds than those referred for police investigation to the NFIB. In the latest year, UK Finance reported 2.8 million cases of frauds involving UK-issued payment cards, remote banking and cheques via CAMIS. This is an increase of 17% from the previous year, driven largely by a 17% rise in plastic card fraud and more specifically a 353,453 volume increase (19%) in the subcategory “remote purchase fraud”.

For the latest headline figures relating to fraud and for more detailed figures including time series data see Appendix tables and Other related tables.

Notes for: Fraud

1. Cifas figures and any NFIB totals presented in this bulletin and accompanying data tables are based on provisional data provided by Cifas. For more information see footnote 4 in Table A5 of the appendix tables.

2. The UK Finance figures and NFIB totals presented in this bulletin and accompanying data tables are supplemented by provisional data provided by UK Finance. For more information see footnote 9 in Table A5 of the appendix tables.

The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) provides the better indication of the volume of computer misuse offences experienced by the adult population as it captures incidents that go unreported to the police. This can be seen by the large difference in the volume of computer misuse offences between the two sources.

Just over a million offences were estimated by the CSEW in the year ending September 2019. This compares with 21,471 offences referred to the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau (NFIB) by Action Fraud (the public-facing national fraud and cybercrime reporting centre). In addition, the two sources have different coverage, which means it is not possible to make meaningful comparisons between them.

In the year ending September 2019, the CSEW estimated that the volume of computer misuse offences did not change from the previous year. This is unlike previous years, which have shown a decline.

Variations within CSEW computer misuse are evident within the subcategories of “computer virus” and “unauthorised access to personal information (including hacking)”. However, the apparent increase in unauthorised access to personal information (22%, to 573,000 offences) and decrease in computer viruses (19%, to 433,000 offences) in the year ending September 2019 were not statistically significant.

All “computer misuse crime” referred to the NFIB by Action Fraud fell by 11% in the year ending September 2019 to 21,471 offences. This decrease follows consecutive rises in the previous two years, and the latest estimate remains 63% higher than in the year ending March 2016. The recent fall in computer misuse recorded by Action Fraud will, to some extent, have been affected by improvements to both internal case review processes and their online reporting tool. These changes took place in October 2018, resulting in some computer misuse offences now being more accurately classified as fraud offences.

For the latest headline figures relating to computer misuse and for more detailed figures see Appendix tables and Other related tables.

Fraud

Fraud involves a person dishonestly and deliberately deceiving a victim for personal gain of property or money, or causing loss or risk of loss to another. The majority of incidents fall under the legal definition of “Fraud by false representation” – where a person makes a representation that they know to be untrue or misleading (for example, banking and payment card frauds and dating scams). The Crime Survey for England and Wales estimates cover a broad range of fraud offences, including attempts involving a loss and incidents not reported to the authorities.

Knife and sharp instrument offences

An offence is recorded by the police as involving a knife or sharp instrument when the weapon is present during the offence or the threat is believed to be real. The weapon does not necessarily have to be used. These data are based on a special collection that includes the offences: homicide, attempted murder, threats to kill, assault with injury and assault with intent to cause serious harm, robbery, rape, and sexual assault.

Offences involving firearms

Offences involving a firearm include those where a firearm is fired, used as a blunt instrument, or used as a threat. Firearms include: shotguns, handguns, rifles, imitation weapons such as BB guns or soft air weapons, other weapons such as CS gas, pepper spray and stun guns, and unidentified weapons. They exclude conventional air weapons, such as air rifles.

Overall theft offences

Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) theft offences include all personal and household crime where items are stolen, including: theft from the person, other theft of personal property, domestic burglary, vehicle-related theft, and bicycle theft.

Robbery

Robbery is an offence in which force, or the threat of force, is used either during or immediately prior to a theft or attempted theft. Mugging is an informal term for robbery. In this bulletin we use the term “robbery”.

Violent crime

Covers a range of offence types from minor assaults, such as pushing and shoving that result in no physical harm, to murder. This includes offences where the victim was intentionally stabbed, punched, kicked, pushed or jostled, as well as offences where the victim was threatened with violence, regardless of injury.

More information and further definitions can be found in the “offence type” section of the User guide to crime statistics for England and Wales.

Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW)

The CSEW is a face-to-face victimisation survey, which asks people resident in households in England and Wales about their experiences of a selected range of offences in the 12 months prior to the interview.

Police recorded crime

Police recorded crime data are supplied to us by the Home Office, who are responsible for the collation of recorded crime data supplied by the 43 territorial police forces of England and Wales, plus the British Transport Police. These data are supplied to the Home Office on a monthly basis in an aggregated return for each crime within the notifiable offence list.

More information on both these sources can be found in the User guide to crime statistics for England and Wales.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Crime in England and Wales QMI.

Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW)

The CSEW is a large nationally representative sample survey that has used a consistent methodology over time. The survey covers crimes not reported to the police and is not affected by changes in police recording practice; therefore, it is a reliable measure of long-term trends.

The CSEW does not cover crimes against businesses and those not resident in households (for example, residents of institutions and visitors). Headline estimates exclude offences that are difficult to estimate robustly (such as sexual offences) or that have no victim who can be interviewed (for example, homicides and drug offences). In addition, the survey is subject to error associated with sampling and respondents recalling past events. Potential time lag between occurrence of the crime and survey data collection means that the survey is not a good measure of emerging trends.

Police recorded crime

Police recorded crime has wider offence coverage and population coverage than the CSEW. It is the primary source of local crime statistics and is a good measure of offences that are well-reported to and well-recorded by the police, as well as lower volume crimes (for example, homicide). In addition, the time lag between occurrence of crime and reporting results tends to be short, providing an indication of emerging trends.

On the other hand, police recorded crime excludes offences that are not reported to, or not recorded by, the police and does not include less serious offences dealt with by magistrates’ courts (for example, motoring offences). Trends can be influenced by changes in recording practices or police activity as well as public reporting of crime, making it difficult to make long-term comparisons. There are also concerns about the quality of recording and that crime is not recorded consistently across police forces.

For some types of crime, because of ongoing changes in police recording practices, an increase in the number of offences recorded by the police is unlikely to indicate a real rise in these types of crime.

Police recorded crime data are not designated as National Statistics. Details of concerns over the quality of these data are in the UK Statistics Authority most recent assessment report.

Issues with Greater Manchester Police (GMP) recorded crime data

Following the implementation of a new IT system in July 2019, GMP have been unable to provide police recorded crime data for July, August and September 2019. This issue is ongoing and will also affect next quarter’s data. In order to allow for accurate comparisons across the years, data for GMP have been excluded from all the police recorded crime data and tables presented in this bulletin for the years ending September 2019, March 2019, September 2018 and March 2018.

Data including GMP (excluding the months July, August and September 2019) are published by the Home Office in Police recorded crime open data Police Force Area tables from year ending March 2013 onwards.

Data on offences involving knives or sharp instruments in England and Wales currently exclude GMP for the whole time series back to the year ending March 2011. In addition to the IT system implementation issue, which impacts data from July 2019 onwards, GMP data for previous time periods are affected by a separate technical issue. A review by GMP in December 2017 revealed an undercount of crimes involving a knife or sharp instrument. Following implementation of a subsequent methodological change in January 2018, data for GMP are not comparable over time.