Denise E. Williams
Population Projections Unit
Telephone: +44 (0) 1329 444652
Frequency of release: Biennially
Geographical coverage: UK
Geographical breakdown: Country
National population projections are available by age and sex for the UK and constituent countries. They are based on the annual mid-year population estimates for 2012 and a set of underlying assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and net migration.
This publication presents the results of the 2012-based national population projections published in November and December 2013. It provides information on the results of the principal (main) and variant (alternative scenario) projections for each country, with details of the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions on which they are based. In addition it includes details on the methodology used to produce the projections, analysis of past trends, and comparison with the previous 2010-based national projections.
Projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. They provide an indication of the impact that changes in demographic patterns might have on the size and age structure of the population in the future.
Projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward and long-term projections should be used with caution. To help understand the uncertainty, a number of variant projections are produced based on alternative demographic scenarios.
2012-based national population projections – principal and 9 key variants that were published on 6 November 2013
2012-based national population projections – extra 7 variants that were published on 10 December 2013
The detailed reference tables published in November and December 2013 can be most easily accessed using an Interactive table download tool - this enables users to find the reference table they need;
These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.