In addition to the principal projection, variant projections can be produced based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration. This release presents data from the 10-year average migration variant, high migration variant and low migration variant.
Publications
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Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
2016-based variant subnational population projections, including a variant based on a 10-year trend of migration data and variants with higher and lower levels of net international migration.
Data
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Subnational population projections – internal migration: SNPP Z5
Population figures over a 25-year period for internal migration, by single year of age and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections – births by age of mother: SNPP Z3
Population figures over a 25-year period on births by age of mother for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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2016-based subnational population projections: differences between the principal projection and variants, mid-2026 and mid-2041
Differences in population between principal projection and variant projections.
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Subnational population projections – cross-border migration: SNPP Z6
Population figures over a 25-year period for cross-border migration, by single year of age and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections for regions: Table 1
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections – local authorities: SNPP Z1
Population figures over a 25-year period, by single year of age and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections incorporating births, deaths and migration for regions and local authorities: Table 5
Population figures over a 25-year period, including births, deaths and migration by sex for regions and local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Subnational population projections – international migration: SNPP Z7
Population figures over a 25-year period for international migration, by single year of age and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections by single year of age – clinical commissioning groups: SNPP Z2
Population figures over a 25-year period, by single year of age and sex for clinical commissioning groups in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections for local authorities: Table 2
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections for clinical commissioning groups and NHS regions: Table 3
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for clinical commissioning groups in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Subnational population projections – deaths: SNPP Z4
Population figures over a 25-year period for deaths by single year of age and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
Methodology
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Subnational population projections across the UK: a comparison of data sources and methods
User guidance, uses, assumptions and methodology for the subnational population projections for each constituent country of the UK.
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Methodology used to produce the 2016-based subnational population projections for England
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2016-based subnational population projections: frequently asked questions
An article providing answers to questions on the 2016-based subnational population projections.
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Subnational population projections QMI
Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report for subnational population projections, detailing the strengths and limitations of the data, methods used, and data uses and users.
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:
- meet identified user needs
- are well explained and readily accessible
- are produced according to sound methods
- are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest
Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.