ONS has today published an article setting out the impact on real GDP growth of previously announced improvements to the National Accounts that will be introduced when revised figures, consistent with Blue Book 2016, are published on 30 June 2016.
Between 2012 and 2014, which are the new periods published today, quarter on quarter real GDP growth has been revised up by an average of 0.03 percentage points per quarter, with an absolute average quarter on quarter revision of 0.14 percentage points.
However, over the whole period from Q2 1997 to Q4 2014 there has been a small downwards average revision of -0.01 percentage points per quarter, with the absolute revision being 0.10 percentage points.
The peak to trough of the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn has been revised from -6.1% to -6.3% with GDP returning to pre-economic downturn levels in Q3 2013, one quarter later than previously estimated.
As already announced, the improvement that has the biggest impact on real GDP growth between 1997-2011 is changed methodology for imputed rentals, which contributes between -0.4 and +0.4 percentage points to the change in annual real GDP growth over the period. The biggest impact is in 2010, due to the improved figures removing a previous discontinuity in the imputed rentals series. Other improvements being made that have the most significant impacts on growth are the measurement of social transfers in kind, imports of gas, investment and the level of income concealed by businesses. These, though, contribute only between -0.1 and +0.1 percentage points to the change in annual real GDP growth over the period.
In 2012-14, as well as the method changes mentioned above, the inclusion of later data, such as those from HMRC and Annual Business Survey, also had a significant contribution to the revisions.
ONS Chief Economist Joe Grice said:
“The improvements, all previously announced, being introduced this year ensure that ONS continues to measure the changing economy in the best way possible.
“However, the overall quantitative impact is small and the new estimates still paint a similar picture to the previous ones.”
ONS previously published articles setting out the impact on the Sector & Financial Accounts and Balance of Payments on 26 April, an article setting out the impact on real GDP growth between 1997-2011 on 23 March and an article setting out the impact of the changes on current price GDP on 24 February.
Background Notes
The full ‘Impact of Blue Book 2016 Changes on Current Price and Chained Volume Measure Gross Domestic Product Estimates, 1997 to 2014’ article is available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/finalgdpcpandcvmquarterlyandannualestimates19972014
ONS previously published ‘Detailed assessment of changes to Balance of Payments annual estimates, 1997 to 2011’ article is available here: http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/nationalaccountsarticles/detailedassessmentofchangestobalanceofpaymentsannualestimates1997to2011
ONS previously published ‘Detailed assessment of changes to Sector and Financial Accounts 1997 to 2011’ article is available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/nationalaccountsarticles/detailedassessmentofchangestosectorandfinancialaccountsannualestimates1997to2011
ONS previously published ‘Impact of Blue Book 2016 Changes on Chained Volume Measure Gross Domestic Product Estimates, 1997 to 2011’ article is available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/nationalaccountsarticles/impactofbluebook2016changesonchainedvolumemeasuregrossdomesticproductestimates1997to2011
The ONS also previously published:
- Methodological improvements to National Accounts for Blue Book 2016: Imputed rental https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/changestonationalaccounts/imputedrental
- GDP(O) Water transport industry review, 2016 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/methodologies/watertransportindustryreview2016
- GDP(O) Postal and courier activities industry review, 2016 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/methodologies/postalandcourieractivitiesindustryreview2016
The previously published ‘Impact of Blue Book 2016 Changes on Current Price Gross Domestic Product Estimates, 1997 to 2011’ is available here: http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/datasets/impactofbluebook2016changesoncurrentpriceukgrossdomesticproductgdpestimatesforinclusioninthejune2016uknationalaccountsupdate but please note that small updates to these estimates have been published today.
The previously published article explaining the scope of changes to be introduced in the 2016 Blue and Pink books is available here: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/economy/national-accounts/changes-to-national-accounts/blue-book-and-pink-book-2016-changes/index.html
National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. © Crown copyright 2016.
Issued by: Office for National Statistics, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport NP10 8XG
Media contact: Tel Media Relations Office 0845 6041858
Emergency on-call 07867 906553
E-mail media.relations@ons.gov.uk
Website: www.ons.gov.uk