ONS has today published an article setting out the impact on real GDP growth of previously announced improvements to the National Accounts that will be introduced when revised figures, consistent with Blue Book 2016, are published on 30 June 2016.
Between 1998 and 2011, the average revision to quarter on quarter real GDP growth over the period is -0.02 percentage points, while the absolute revision to quarter on quarter real GDP growth is 0.09 percentage points. Average annual growth remains at 2.0%.
The estimated length and timing of the 2008/09 economic downturn is unrevised, while the peak to trough is revised slightly from -6.1% to -6.3%.
The improvement that has the biggest impact on real GDP growth is changed methodology for imputed rentals, which contributes between -0.4 and +0.4 percentage points to the change in annual real GDP growth over the period. The biggest impact is in 2010, due to the improved figures removing a previous discontinuity in the imputed rentals series.
Other improvements being made that have the most significant impacts on growth are the measurement of social transfers in kind, imports of gas, investment and the level of income concealed by businesses. These, though, contribute only between -0.1 and +0.1 percentage points to the change in annual real GDP growth over the period.
ONS Chief Economist Joe Grice said:
“The annual process of updating the methods and data sources for national accounts ensures ONS continues to measure the modern, changing economy in the best way possible.
“A number of improvements, all previously announced, are being introduced this year. But the overall impact on growth in real GDP is negligible, reducing average quarterly real GDP growth by just -0.02 percentage points while average annual GDP growth remains at 2.0%.”
ONS previously published an article setting out the impact on current price GDP of improvements to the National Accounts, consistent with the Blue Book 2016, on 24 February.
The full ‘Impact of Blue Book 2016 Changes on Chained Volume Measure Gross Domestic Product Estimates, 1997 to 2011’ article is available on the ONS website.
The ONS has also today published:
The previously published ‘Impact of Blue Book 2016 Changes on Current Price Gross Domestic Product Estimates, 1997 to 2011’ is available on the ONS website but please note that small updates to these estimates have been published today.
The previously published article explaining the scope of changes to be introduced in the 2016 Blue and Pink books is available on the ONS website.
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