"Figure 4: Age-standardised quarterly rolling annual mortality rates and fitted segmented model, by sex for those aged under 75 years, England, 1990 to 2017","" "","" "","" "Notes","1. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 population, standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population. 2. Figures exclude non-residents, based on boundaries as of February 2018. 3. Q1 refers to annual period ending Quarter 1 (April to March), Q2 refers to annual period ending Quarter 2 (July to June), Q3 refers to annual period ending Quarter 3 (October to September), Q4 refers to annual period ending Quarter 4 (January to December). 4. Segmented model is the segmented linear regression model produced by our program to best fit the data. 5. Pre-breakpoint trend projected is the trend fitted to the data up until the breakpoint projected forward to the end of the observed data time series. " "Unit","Age-standardised mortality rate, per 100,000" "","" "Period Ending","Females - Observed rate","Females - Segmented model","Females - Pre-breakpoint trend projected","Males - Observed rate","Males - Segmented model","Males - Pre-breakpoint trend projected" "Q4 1990","448.6","453.5","453.5","779.8","782.1","782.1" "Q1 1991","445.9","451.3","451.3","773.5","777.6","777.6" "Q2 1991","445.1","449.1","449.1","770.7","773.2","773.2" "Q3 1991","443.3","447.0","447.0","766.5","768.7","768.7" "Q4 1991","440.7","444.8","444.8","761.5","764.2","764.2" "Q1 1992","438.6","442.6","442.6","756.7","759.7","759.7" "Q2 1992","433.9","440.4","440.4","748.4","755.2","755.2" "Q3 1992","431.7","438.3","438.3","743.9","750.8","750.8" "Q4 1992","427.6","436.1","436.1","736.2","746.3","746.3" "Q1 1993","423.1","433.9","433.9","728.9","741.8","741.8" "Q2 1993","422.8","431.8","431.8","727.6","737.3","737.3" "Q3 1993","421.6","429.6","429.6","725.9","732.8","732.8" "Q4 1993","431.2","427.4","427.4","736.9","728.4","728.4" "Q1 1994","430.1","425.2","425.2","730.5","723.9","723.9" "Q2 1994","426.7","423.1","423.1","724.5","719.4","719.4" "Q3 1994","428.2","420.9","420.9","723.0","714.9","714.9" "Q4 1994","416.0","418.7","418.7","705.3","710.4","710.4" "Q1 1995","416.4","416.5","416.5","709.0","706.0","706.0" "Q2 1995","417.4","414.4","414.4","708.2","701.5","701.5" "Q3 1995","413.8","412.2","412.2","700.8","697.0","697.0" "Q4 1995","416.9","410.0","410.0","702.9","692.5","692.5" "Q1 1996","417.3","407.9","407.9","699.8","688.1","688.1" "Q2 1996","413.4","405.7","405.7","694.2","683.6","683.6" "Q3 1996","412.4","403.5","403.5","693.3","679.1","679.1" "Q4 1996","407.4","401.3","401.3","684.8","674.6","674.6" "Q1 1997","404.9","399.2","399.2","672.8","670.1","670.1" "Q2 1997","405.5","397.0","397.0","671.0","665.7","665.7" "Q3 1997","403.0","394.8","394.8","665.9","661.2","661.2" "Q4 1997","399.1","392.6","392.6","658.6","656.7","656.7" "Q1 1998","392.4","390.5","390.5","654.0","652.2","652.2" "Q2 1998","390.1","388.3","388.3","648.3","647.7","647.7" "Q3 1998","387.7","386.1","386.1","644.6","643.3","643.3" "Q4 1998","389.5","384.0","384.0","644.5","638.8","638.8" "Q1 1999","393.0","381.8","381.8","646.7","634.3","634.3" "Q2 1999","387.3","379.6","379.6","637.0","629.8","629.8" "Q3 1999","384.5","377.4","377.4","630.8","625.3","625.3" "Q4 1999","380.5","375.3","375.3","625.0","620.9","620.9" "Q1 2000","378.8","373.1","373.1","624.1","616.4","616.4" "Q2 2000","377.2","370.9","370.9","620.9","611.9","611.9" "Q3 2000","374.4","368.8","368.8","613.4","607.4","607.4" "Q4 2000","366.5","366.6","366.6","600.4","603.0","603.0" "Q1 2001","358.2","364.4","364.4","584.5","598.5","598.5" "Q2 2001","357.9","362.2","362.2","580.0","594.0","594.0" "Q3 2001","355.3","360.1","360.1","578.9","589.5","589.5" "Q4 2001","354.9","357.9","357.9","575.6","585.0","585.0" "Q1 2002","349.3","355.7","355.7","567.6","580.6","580.6" "Q2 2002","348.1","353.5","353.5","566.3","576.1","576.1" "Q3 2002","349.1","351.4","351.4","564.8","571.6","571.6" "Q4 2002","346.3","349.2","349.2","563.6","567.1","567.1" "Q1 2003","344.5","347.0","347.0","558.7","562.6","562.6" "Q2 2003","342.0","344.9","344.9","553.5","558.2","558.2" "Q3 2003","339.4","342.7","342.7","549.7","553.7","553.7" "Q4 2003","342.3","340.5","340.5","549.7","549.2","549.2" "Q1 2004","341.6","338.3","338.3","546.5","544.7","544.7" "Q2 2004","336.8","336.2","336.2","541.1","540.3","540.3" "Q3 2004","333.9","334.0","334.0","534.7","535.8","535.8" "Q4 2004","326.7","331.8","331.8","522.9","531.3","531.3" "Q1 2005","325.4","329.6","329.6","520.0","526.8","526.8" "Q2 2005","326.1","327.5","327.5","518.4","522.3","522.3" "Q3 2005","323.5","325.3","325.3","514.2","517.9","517.9" "Q4 2005","319.1","323.1","323.1","508.2","513.4","513.4" "Q1 2006","317.1","321.0","321.0","504.8","508.9","508.9" "Q2 2006","315.0","318.8","318.8","501.6","504.4","504.4" "Q3 2006","312.8","316.6","316.6","497.5","499.9","499.9" "Q4 2006","310.4","314.4","314.4","492.4","495.5","495.5" "Q1 2007","308.5","312.3","312.3","486.9","491.0","491.0" "Q2 2007","305.7","310.1","310.1","480.6","486.5","486.5" "Q3 2007","302.0","307.9","307.9","475.8","482.0","482.0" "Q4 2007","303.1","305.7","305.7","475.7","477.5","477.5" "Q1 2008","299.3","303.6","303.6","472.2","473.1","473.1" "Q2 2008","298.3","301.4","301.4","470.3","468.6","468.6" "Q3 2008","298.8","299.2","299.2","468.9","464.1","464.1" "Q4 2008","299.7","297.1","297.1","467.6","459.6","459.6" "Q1 2009","298.2","294.9","294.9","464.1","455.2","455.2" "Q2 2009","293.8","292.7","292.7","457.9","450.7","450.7" "Q3 2009","290.2","290.5","290.5","453.4","446.2","446.2" "Q4 2009","285.9","288.4","288.4","449.6","441.7","441.7" "Q1 2010","283.6","286.2","286.2","445.4","437.2","437.2" "Q2 2010","283.5","284.0","284.0","443.8","434.4","432.8" "Q3 2010","283.2","281.9","281.9","442.4","432.9","428.3" "Q4 2010","281.6","279.7","279.7","440.1","431.5","423.8" "Q1 2011","282.0","277.5","277.5","440.0","430.0","419.3" "Q2 2011","280.5","275.3","275.3","437.1","428.6","414.8" "Q3 2011","279.0","273.2","273.2","432.8","427.1","410.4" "Q4 2011","273.5","271.0","271.0","423.5","425.7","405.9" "Q1 2012","270.3","269.6","268.8","416.3","424.2","401.4" "Q2 2012","270.9","269.2","266.6","413.7","422.8","396.9" "Q3 2012","269.0","268.8","264.5","411.7","421.4","392.4" "Q4 2012","269.9","268.4","262.3","411.2","419.9","388.0" "Q1 2013","268.9","268.0","260.1","411.5","418.5","383.5" "Q2 2013","268.5","267.6","258.0","413.5","417.0","379.0" "Q3 2014","267.8","267.2","255.8","411.3","415.6","374.5" "Q4 2013","265.6","266.8","253.6","409.4","414.1","370.1" "Q1 2014","264.1","266.4","251.4","406.6","412.7","365.6" "Q2 2014","261.0","266.0","249.3","401.6","411.3","361.1" "Q3 2014","261.1","265.6","247.1","403.2","409.8","356.6" "Q4 2014","262.3","265.3","244.9","402.5","408.4","352.1" "Q1 2015","266.4","264.9","242.7","406.0","406.9","347.7" "Q2 2015","266.5","264.5","240.6","406.3","405.5","343.2" "Q3 2015","265.6","264.1","238.4","404.1","404.0","338.7" "Q4 2015","263.5","263.7","236.2","403.3","402.6","334.2" "Q1 2016","262.2","263.3","234.1","402.1","401.1","329.7" "Q2 2016","265.2","262.9","231.9","403.5","399.7","325.3" "Q3 2016","264.8","262.5","229.7","403.2","398.3","320.8" "Q4 2016","265.8","262.1","227.5","400.7","396.8","316.3" "Q1 2017","265.3","261.7","225.4","401.5","395.4","311.8" "Q2 2017","260.6","261.3","223.2","398.0","393.9","307.3" "Q3 2017","258.9","260.9","221.0","396.6","392.5","302.9" "Q4 2017","257.2","260.6","218.8","396.1","391.0","298.4"