"Figure 7: Age-standardised quarterly rolling annual mortality rates and fitted segmented model, by sex for those aged under 75 years, Wales, 1990 to 2017","" "","" "","" "Notes","1. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 population, standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population. 2. Figures exclude non-residents, based on boundaries as of February 2018. 3. Q1 refers to annual period ending Quarter 1 (April to March), Q2 refers to annual period ending Quarter 2 (July to June), Q3 refers to annual period ending Quarter 3 (October to September), Q4 refers to annual period ending Quarter 4 (January to December). 4. Segmented model is the segmented linear regression model produced by our program to best fit the data. 5. Pre-breakpoint trend projected is the trend fitted to the data up until the breakpoint projected forward to the end of the observed data time series. " "Unit","Age-standardised mortality rate, per 100,000" "","" "Period Ending","Females - Observed rate","Females - Segmented model","Females - Pre-breakpoint trend projected","Males - Observed rate","Males - Segmented model","Males - Pre-breakpoint trend projected" "Q4 1990","461.0","477.0","477.0","829.0","835.1","835.1" "Q1 1991","462.8","475.0","475.0","829.9","830.5","830.5" "Q2 1991","457.9","473.0","473.0","825.4","825.9","825.9" "Q3 1991","461.8","470.9","470.9","822.4","821.3","821.3" "Q4 1991","452.6","468.9","468.9","799.1","816.7","816.7" "Q1 1992","453.4","466.8","466.8","785.9","812.1","812.1" "Q2 1992","453.7","464.8","464.8","776.5","807.5","807.5" "Q3 1992","444.1","462.7","462.7","772.7","802.9","802.9" "Q4 1992","448.7","460.7","460.7","773.3","798.3","798.3" "Q1 1993","444.0","458.6","458.6","768.8","793.6","793.6" "Q2 1993","447.1","456.6","456.6","777.9","789.0","789.0" "Q3 1993","456.6","454.6","454.6","776.1","784.4","784.4" "Q4 1993","457.4","452.5","452.5","795.8","779.8","779.8" "Q1 1994","453.1","450.5","450.5","792.3","775.2","775.2" "Q2 1994","450.4","448.4","448.4","785.0","770.6","770.6" "Q3 1994","452.4","446.4","446.4","782.0","766.0","766.0" "Q4 1994","441.4","444.3","444.3","766.4","761.4","761.4" "Q1 1995","443.6","442.3","442.3","766.1","756.8","756.8" "Q2 1995","440.5","440.3","440.3","771.5","752.2","752.2" "Q3 1995","437.1","438.2","438.2","765.8","747.6","747.6" "Q4 1995","447.3","436.2","436.2","760.7","742.9","742.9" "Q1 1996","447.8","434.1","434.1","756.3","738.3","738.3" "Q2 1996","444.3","432.1","432.1","730.9","733.7","733.7" "Q3 1996","443.9","430.0","430.0","729.4","729.1","729.1" "Q4 1996","437.0","428.0","428.0","727.0","724.5","724.5" "Q1 1997","437.2","425.9","425.9","723.0","719.9","719.9" "Q2 1997","440.6","423.9","423.9","738.0","715.3","715.3" "Q3 1997","433.5","421.9","421.9","734.9","710.7","710.7" "Q4 1997","431.9","419.8","419.8","722.8","706.1","706.1" "Q1 1998","427.1","417.8","417.8","712.4","701.5","701.5" "Q2 1998","422.6","415.7","415.7","701.1","696.8","696.8" "Q3 1998","423.9","413.7","413.7","694.6","692.2","692.2" "Q4 1998","424.1","411.6","411.6","689.5","687.6","687.6" "Q1 1999","427.7","409.6","409.6","698.5","683.0","683.0" "Q2 1999","419.9","407.6","407.6","697.0","678.4","678.4" "Q3 1999","419.6","405.5","405.5","694.7","673.8","673.8" "Q4 1999","417.2","403.5","403.5","695.0","669.2","669.2" "Q1 2000","410.3","401.4","401.4","690.8","664.6","664.6" "Q2 2000","409.6","399.4","399.4","680.0","660.0","660.0" "Q3 2000","403.9","397.3","397.3","667.6","655.4","655.4" "Q4 2000","392.2","395.3","395.3","648.8","650.7","650.7" "Q1 2001","387.9","393.2","393.2","628.5","646.1","646.1" "Q2 2001","391.0","391.2","391.2","625.9","641.5","641.5" "Q3 2001","387.3","389.2","389.2","623.4","636.9","636.9" "Q4 2001","388.5","387.1","387.1","622.3","632.3","632.3" "Q1 2002","380.6","385.1","385.1","619.0","627.7","627.7" "Q2 2002","374.3","383.0","383.0","604.4","623.1","623.1" "Q3 2002","380.9","381.0","381.0","607.9","618.5","618.5" "Q4 2002","379.8","378.9","378.9","604.7","613.9","613.9" "Q1 2003","379.2","376.9","376.9","597.0","609.3","609.3" "Q2 2003","382.2","374.9","374.9","598.6","604.7","604.7" "Q3 2003","373.0","372.8","372.8","591.6","600.0","600.0" "Q4 2003","373.4","370.8","370.8","595.8","595.4","595.4" "Q1 2004","371.2","368.7","368.7","592.1","590.8","590.8" "Q2 2004","361.1","366.7","366.7","586.2","586.2","586.2" "Q3 2004","360.8","364.6","364.6","577.3","581.6","581.6" "Q4 2004","355.7","362.6","362.6","562.3","577.0","577.0" "Q1 2005","356.7","360.5","360.5","561.3","572.4","572.4" "Q2 2005","362.5","358.5","358.5","561.8","567.8","567.8" "Q3 2005","354.6","356.5","356.5","554.4","563.2","563.2" "Q4 2005","348.9","354.4","354.4","544.1","558.6","558.6" "Q1 2006","344.8","352.4","352.4","536.5","553.9","553.9" "Q2 2006","337.8","350.3","350.3","530.2","549.3","549.3" "Q3 2006","341.8","348.3","348.3","529.5","544.7","544.7" "Q4 2006","335.0","346.2","346.2","525.3","540.1","540.1" "Q1 2007","336.0","344.2","344.2","516.2","535.5","535.5" "Q2 2007","340.8","342.2","342.2","517.7","530.9","530.9" "Q3 2007","337.9","340.1","340.1","515.5","526.3","526.3" "Q4 2007","341.0","338.1","338.1","528.4","521.7","521.7" "Q1 2008","329.8","336.0","336.0","527.4","517.1","517.1" "Q2 2008","322.3","334.0","334.0","521.1","512.5","512.5" "Q3 2008","322.8","331.9","331.9","522.0","507.8","507.8" "Q4 2008","333.2","329.9","329.9","507.9","503.2","503.2" "Q1 2009","340.3","327.8","327.8","507.4","498.6","498.6" "Q2 2009","334.9","325.8","325.8","500.2","494.0","494.0" "Q3 2009","329.8","323.8","323.8","493.3","489.4","489.4" "Q4 2009","316.5","321.7","321.7","496.2","484.8","484.8" "Q1 2010","309.4","319.7","319.7","488.8","480.2","480.2" "Q2 2010","310.2","317.6","317.6","484.9","475.6","475.6" "Q3 2010","309.4","315.6","315.6","482.0","471.0","471.0" "Q4 2010","311.0","313.5","313.5","476.3","468.0","466.4" "Q1 2011","315.5","311.5","311.5","483.9","467.5","461.7" "Q2 2011","314.3","309.5","309.5","481.8","467.0","457.1" "Q3 2011","312.3","307.4","307.4","479.2","466.5","452.5" "Q4 2011","302.8","305.4","305.4","469.0","466.0","447.9" "Q1 2012","294.8","303.3","303.3","458.2","465.5","443.3" "Q2 2012","296.2","301.4","301.3","455.1","465.1","438.7" "Q3 2012","299.5","301.3","299.2","458.6","464.6","434.1" "Q4 2012","304.8","301.2","297.2","457.3","464.1","429.5" "Q1 2013","307.4","301.1","295.1","458.1","463.6","424.9" "Q2 2013","310.1","301.0","293.1","468.3","463.1","420.3" "Q3 2014","303.7","300.8","291.1","461.2","462.7","415.7" "Q4 2013","300.1","300.7","289.0","464.1","462.2","411.0" "Q1 2014","294.8","300.6","287.0","456.8","461.7","406.4" "Q2 2014","286.3","300.5","284.9","444.9","461.2","401.8" "Q3 2014","284.7","300.4","282.9","439.8","460.7","397.2" "Q4 2014","289.6","300.3","280.8","441.4","460.3","392.6" "Q1 2015","303.1","300.2","278.8","449.6","459.8","388.0" "Q2 2015","309.9","300.1","276.8","450.2","459.3","383.4" "Q3 2015","313.0","300.0","274.7","456.7","458.8","378.8" "Q4 2015","312.5","299.8","272.7","456.4","458.3","374.2" "Q1 2016","303.9","299.7","270.6","462.6","457.9","369.6" "Q2 2016","304.8","299.6","268.6","468.2","457.4","364.9" "Q3 2016","301.3","299.5","266.5","468.9","456.9","360.3" "Q4 2016","296.1","299.4","264.5","466.5","456.4","355.7" "Q1 2017","296.3","299.3","262.4","461.9","455.9","351.1" "Q2 2017","290.8","299.2","260.4","463.7","455.4","346.5" "Q3 2017","296.4","299.1","258.4","461.4","455.0","341.9" "Q4 2017","298.8","298.9","256.3","455.0","454.5","337.3"