"Figure 12: Mortality rates for males and females aged 85 to 89 years are not improving at as great a rate as was expected pre-breakpoint","" "Age-specific quarterly rolling annual mortality rates and fitted segmented model, by sex for males and females aged 85 to 89 years, Wales, 1990 to 2018","" "","" "Notes","1. Age-specific mortality rates per 100,000 population. 2. Figures exclude non-residents, based on boundaries as of May 2019. 3. Q1 refers to annual period ending Quarter 1 (April to March), Q2 refers to annual period ending Quarter 2 (July to June), Q3 refers to annual period ending Quarter 3 (October to September), Q4 refers to annual period ending Quarter 4 (January to December). 4. Segmented model is the segmented linear regression model produced by our program to best fit the data. 5. Pre-breakpoint trend projected is the trend fitted to the data up until the breakpoint projected forward to the end of the observed data time series." "Unit","Age-specific mortality rates per 100,000" "","" "Period Ending","Males - Observed rate","Males - Segmented model","Males - Pre-breakpoint trend projected","Females - Observed rate","Females - Segmented model","Females - Pre-breakpoint trend projected" "Q4 1990","18368.7","18222.8","18222.8","12297.5","13358.3","13358.3" "Q1 1991","18083.7","18169.4","18169.4","12649.9","13323.8","13323.8" "Q2 1991","18051.3","18116.1","18116.1","12737.9","13289.2","13289.2" "Q3 1991","17458.9","18062.7","18062.7","12537.5","13254.6","13254.6" "Q4 1991","17419.2","18009.3","18009.3","12710.3","13220.1","13220.1" "Q1 1992","17475.7","17955.9","17955.9","12651.2","13185.5","13185.5" "Q2 1992","17175.5","17902.5","17902.5","12458.0","13150.9","13150.9" "Q3 1992","17268.2","17849.2","17849.2","12703.2","13116.4","13116.4" "Q4 1992","17113.1","17795.8","17795.8","12651.9","13081.8","13081.8" "Q1 1993","16907.9","17742.4","17742.4","12522.1","13047.2","13047.2" "Q2 1993","16851.7","17689.0","17689.0","12905.8","13012.7","13012.7" "Q3 1993","16623.6","17635.6","17635.6","13074.1","12978.1","12978.1" "Q4 1993","17571.8","17582.3","17582.3","13663.2","12943.5","12943.5" "Q1 1994","17490.7","17528.9","17528.9","13592.8","12909.0","12909.0" "Q2 1994","17579.2","17475.5","17475.5","13356.3","12874.4","12874.4" "Q3 1994","17624.5","17422.1","17422.1","12867.1","12839.8","12839.8" "Q4 1994","16912.3","17368.8","17368.8","12253.4","12805.3","12805.3" "Q1 1995","17148.3","17315.4","17315.4","12266.7","12770.7","12770.7" "Q2 1995","17511.4","17262.0","17262.0","12318.2","12736.1","12736.1" "Q3 1995","17850.9","17208.6","17208.6","12247.3","12701.6","12701.6" "Q4 1995","18020.8","17155.2","17155.2","12561.1","12667.0","12667.0" "Q1 1996","17964.2","17101.9","17101.9","12801.6","12632.4","12632.4" "Q2 1996","17431.4","17048.5","17048.5","12621.6","12597.9","12597.9" "Q3 1996","17196.0","16995.1","16995.1","12816.9","12563.3","12563.3" "Q4 1996","17002.4","16941.7","16941.7","12622.6","12528.7","12528.7" "Q1 1997","17278.0","16888.3","16888.3","12618.4","12494.2","12494.2" "Q2 1997","17541.0","16835.0","16835.0","12559.1","12459.6","12459.6" "Q3 1997","17383.0","16781.6","16781.6","12689.3","12425.0","12425.0" "Q4 1997","17038.9","16728.2","16728.2","12724.8","12390.5","12390.5" "Q1 1998","16192.5","16674.8","16674.8","12256.3","12355.9","12355.9" "Q2 1998","15717.2","16621.4","16621.4","12432.1","12321.3","12321.3" "Q3 1998","15932.1","16568.1","16568.1","12281.0","12286.8","12286.8" "Q4 1998","16369.8","16514.7","16514.7","12335.8","12252.2","12252.2" "Q1 1999","17358.0","16461.3","16461.3","13082.4","12217.6","12217.6" "Q2 1999","17762.3","16407.9","16407.9","13019.3","12183.1","12183.1" "Q3 1999","17451.1","16354.6","16354.6","12956.3","12148.5","12148.5" "Q4 1999","17147.9","16301.2","16301.2","12787.8","12113.9","12113.9" "Q1 2000","16963.0","16247.8","16247.8","12616.9","12079.4","12079.4" "Q2 2000","16606.5","16194.4","16194.4","12635.2","12044.8","12044.8" "Q3 2000","16854.8","16141.0","16141.0","12708.8","12010.2","12010.2" "Q4 2000","16440.4","16087.7","16087.7","12478.5","11975.7","11975.7" "Q1 2001","16140.0","16034.3","16034.3","12243.7","11941.1","11941.1" "Q2 2001","16443.7","15980.9","15980.9","12171.7","11906.5","11906.5" "Q3 2001","16260.5","15927.5","15927.5","12273.5","11871.9","11871.9" "Q4 2001","16519.8","15874.1","15874.1","12341.5","11837.4","11837.4" "Q1 2002","16101.6","15820.8","15820.8","12049.5","11802.8","11802.8" "Q2 2002","15847.3","15767.4","15767.4","12105.6","11768.2","11768.2" "Q3 2002","16032.5","15714.0","15714.0","12095.3","11733.7","11733.7" "Q4 2002","16231.1","15660.6","15660.6","12226.2","11699.1","11699.1" "Q1 2003","16500.6","15607.3","15607.3","12395.6","11664.5","11664.5" "Q2 2003","16781.8","15553.9","15553.9","12582.0","11630.0","11630.0" "Q3 2003","16683.0","15500.5","15500.5","12580.0","11595.4","11595.4" "Q4 2003","16692.2","15447.1","15447.1","12694.4","11560.8","11560.8" "Q1 2004","16389.3","15393.7","15393.7","12622.8","11526.3","11526.3" "Q2 2004","15649.5","15340.4","15340.4","12243.3","11491.7","11491.7" "Q3 2004","15068.5","15287.0","15287.0","12027.4","11457.1","11457.1" "Q4 2004","14300.9","15233.6","15233.6","11461.2","11422.6","11422.6" "Q1 2005","14443.1","15180.2","15180.2","11183.9","11388.0","11388.0" "Q2 2005","14212.0","15126.8","15126.8","11204.2","11353.4","11353.4" "Q3 2005","14342.1","15073.5","15073.5","10980.7","11318.9","11318.9" "Q4 2005","14272.9","15020.1","15020.1","10849.8","11284.3","11284.3" "Q1 2006","13928.3","14966.7","14966.7","10616.5","11249.7","11249.7" "Q2 2006","14165.5","14913.3","14913.3","10301.7","11215.2","11215.2" "Q3 2006","13684.8","14859.9","14859.9","10207.9","11180.6","11180.6" "Q4 2006","13501.9","14806.6","14806.6","10084.8","11146.0","11146.0" "Q1 2007","13462.3","14753.2","14753.2","10313.1","11111.5","11111.5" "Q2 2007","13575.9","14699.8","14699.8","10298.6","11076.9","11076.9" "Q3 2007","13842.2","14646.4","14646.4","10352.7","11042.3","11042.3" "Q4 2007","14179.6","14593.1","14593.1","10514.7","11007.8","11007.8" "Q1 2008","14204.2","14539.7","14539.7","10327.2","10973.2","10973.2" "Q2 2008","14056.6","14486.3","14486.3","10619.2","10938.6","10938.6" "Q3 2008","14122.5","14432.9","14432.9","10637.7","10904.1","10904.1" "Q4 2008","14245.9","14379.5","14379.5","10960.9","10869.5","10869.5" "Q1 2009","14350.5","14326.2","14326.2","11110.6","10834.9","10834.9" "Q2 2009","14436.8","14272.8","14272.8","10695.4","10800.4","10800.4" "Q3 2009","14496.3","14219.4","14219.4","10532.5","10765.8","10765.8" "Q4 2009","14493.4","14166.0","14166.0","10317.2","10731.2","10731.2" "Q1 2010","14520.9","14112.6","14112.6","10415.4","10696.7","10696.7" "Q2 2010","14270.3","14059.3","14059.3","10526.2","10662.1","10662.1" "Q3 2010","14160.6","14005.9","14005.9","10692.5","10627.5","10627.5" "Q4 2010","13997.8","13952.5","13952.5","10844.2","10593.0","10593.0" "Q1 2011","13493.4","13899.1","13899.1","10396.1","10558.4","10558.4" "Q2 2011","13639.1","13845.7","13845.7","10465.5","10523.8","10523.8" "Q3 2011","13414.1","13792.4","13792.4","10275.0","10489.3","10489.3" "Q4 2011","13311.1","13739.0","13739.0","9935.6","10454.7","10454.7" "Q1 2012","13446.0","13685.6","13685.6","10051.7","10444.9","10420.1" "Q2 2012","13439.9","13632.2","13632.2","10032.5","10435.1","10385.6" "Q3 2012","13356.5","13578.9","13578.9","10066.3","10425.3","10351.0" "Q4 2012","13457.6","13525.5","13525.5","10379.2","10415.6","10316.4" "Q1 2013","13674.0","13472.1","13472.1","10681.0","10405.8","10281.9" "Q2 2013","13856.1","13418.7","13418.7","10878.7","10396.0","10247.3" "Q3 2013","13676.0","13365.3","13365.3","10938.3","10386.2","10212.7" "Q4 2013","13385.1","13312.0","13312.0","10612.8","10376.4","10178.2" "Q1 2014","12947.9","13258.6","13258.6","10137.6","10366.7","10143.6" "Q2 2014","12452.3","13205.2","13205.2","9896.0","10356.9","10109.0" "Q3 2014","12749.5","13151.8","13151.8","9983.3","10347.1","10074.5" "Q4 2014","13089.7","13098.4","13098.4","10173.0","10337.3","10039.9" "Q1 2015","13886.6","13045.1","13045.1","10750.6","10327.5","10005.3" "Q2 2015","14045.6","12991.7","12991.7","10906.4","10317.8","9970.8" "Q3 2015","13854.4","12938.3","12938.3","10942.6","10308.0","9936.2" "Q4 2015","13325.6","12884.9","12884.9","10820.6","10298.2","9901.6" "Q1 2016","12703.0","12831.6","12831.6","10392.6","10288.4","9867.1" "Q2 2016","12789.4","12778.2","12778.2","10447.6","10278.6","9832.5" "Q3 2016","12576.9","12724.8","12724.8","10326.3","10268.9","9797.9" "Q4 2016","12615.7","12671.4","12671.4","10143.8","10259.1","9763.3" "Q1 2017","12903.9","12772.5","12618.0","10092.1","10249.3","9728.8" "Q2 2017","12668.5","12873.9","12564.7","9948.6","10239.5","9694.2" "Q3 2017","12826.2","12975.4","12511.3","9802.7","10229.7","9659.6" "Q4 2017","13032.2","13076.9","12457.9","9774.6","10220.0","9625.1" "Q1 2018","13435.7","13178.4","12404.5","10313.0","10210.2","9590.5" "Q2 2018","13559.5","13279.9","12351.1","10189.9","10200.4","9555.9" "Q3 2018","13409.1","13381.3","12297.8","10137.2","10190.6","9521.4" "Q4 2018","13201.1","13482.8","12244.4","10151.2","10180.8","9486.8"