"Figure 4: There is approximately a two-in-three chance that the “final” estimate will be within the confidence intervals","" "Confidence intervals and the first estimate of quarter-on-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth","" "","" "Notes","1. The 68% confidence intervals are based on statistical properties of revisions between the first and “final” estimate of gross domestic product (GDP), computed over a rolling 10-year window and applying a normal distribution. 2. These confidence intervals imply there is approximately a two-in-three chance that the “final” estimate will be within the estimated range. 3. Q1 equals Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 equals Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 equals Quarter 3 (July to September) and Q4 equals Quarter 4 (October to December). " "Unit","%" "","" "","First estimate","Lower","Upper" "2008 Q1 ","0.4","0.1","0.7" "2008 Q2 ","0.2","-0.1","0.5" "2008 Q3 ","-0.5","-0.8","-0.2" "2008 Q4 ","-1.5","-1.8","-1.2" "2009 Q1 ","-1.9","-2.2","-1.6" "2009 Q2 ","-0.8","-1.2","-0.4" "2009 Q3 ","-0.4","-0.8","0.0" "2009 Q4 ","0.1","-0.3","0.5" "2010 Q1","0.2","-0.2","0.6" "2010 Q2","1.1","0.7","1.5" "2010 Q3","0.8","0.4","1.2" "2010 Q4","-0.5","-0.9","-0.1" "2011 Q1","0.5","0.1","0.9" "2011 Q2","0.2","-0.2","0.6" "2011 Q3","0.5","0.1","0.9" "2011 Q4","-0.2","-0.6","0.2" "2012 Q1","-0.2","-0.6","0.2" "2012 Q2","-0.7","-1.1","-0.3" "2012 Q3","1.0","0.6","1.4" "2012 Q4","-0.3","-0.7","0.1" "2013 Q1","0.3","-0.1","0.7" "2013 Q2","0.6","0.2","1.0" "2013 Q3","0.8","0.4","1.2" "2013 Q4","0.7","0.3","1.1" "2014 Q1","0.8","0.4","1.2" "2014 Q2","0.8","0.4","1.2" "2014 Q3","0.7","0.3","1.1" "2014 Q4","0.5","0.1","0.9" "2015 Q1","0.3","-0.1","0.7" "2015 Q2","0.7","0.3","1.1" "2015 Q3","0.5","0.1","0.9" "2015 Q4","0.5","0.1","0.9" "2016 Q1","0.4","0.0","0.8" "2016 Q2","0.6","0.2","1.0" "2016 Q3","0.5","0.1","0.9" "2016 Q4","0.6","0.2","1.0"