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InflowOutflowUnited Kingdom thousandsAll citizenships+/CI#Totals may not sum due to rounding. Crown copyright. You may reuse this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence.\To view this licence, go to: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/opengovernmentlicence/EstimateSource: Office for National Statistics (ONS).(British
(Including Overseas Territories)This table uses 95% confidence intervals (CI) to indicate the robustness of each estimate. Please see the Notes worksheet for more information.cPublished on 29 November 2018 by the Office for National Statistics. Email: migstatsunit@ons.gov.ukwor write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU. Email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk2008 Quarter 32009 Quarter 32010 Quarter 32011 Quarter 32012 Quarter 32013 Quarter 32014 Quarter 32015 Quarter 32016 Quarter 32008 Quarter 42009 Quarter 22009 Quarter 12009 Quarter 4Quarter2010 Quarter 12010 Quarter 22010 Quarter 42011 Quarter 12011 Quarter 22011 Quarter 42012 Quarter 12012 Quarter 22012 Quarter 42013 Quarter 12013 Quarter 22013 Quarter 42014 Quarter 12014 Quarter 22014 Quarter 42015 Quarter 12015 Quarter 22015 Quarter 42016 Quarter 12016 Quarter 22016 Quarter 4Balance2018 Quarter 1p 2018 Quarter 2p 6p = Estimates for the quarters of 2018 are provisionalCitizenship6Click box to display these data as a time series chartSelect Citizenship:Horizontal data offsetSelected citizenship(British (including overseas territories)JEuropean Union as constituted in relevant time period (other than British)?NonEuropean Union (excludes British and all other EU citizens)Vertical data offsetSelected reasonEstimate in tableEstimate for chartSelect Flow Type: Flow TypeBalance (Net Migration)2017 Quarter 12017 Quarter 22017 Quarter 32017 Quarter 4Select Quarter:All estimates are uncalibrated. Inflow and balance estimates might not match the annual totals in calibrated IPS estimates. Please see the Notes worksheet for more information.Longterm international migration flows fluctuate considerably on a seasonal basis. To observe the underlying trends, use the spinner at the top of this table to look at one quarter of each year at a time.YearsTable AChart A3CONTENTS (Click to go directly to selected content)NOTESDefinition of a migrantkThe UN recommendation for defining a longterm international migrant is used. That is, a migrant is someone who changes his or her country of usual residence for a period of at least a year, so that the country of destination effectively becomes the country of usual residence. This definition does not necessarily coincide with those used by other organisations.Data sourcesData comparabilityProvisional dataMigration flowsEstimates of flows of migrants into the UK ("Immigration estimates") are identified in these tables as "Inflow". Inflow estimates are held in Excel as positive numbers formatted to appear unsigned in black (immigrants add to the population of the UK).Estimates of flows of migrants out of the UK ("Emigration estimates") are identified in these tables as "Outflow". Outflow estimates are held in Excel as negative numbers formatted to appear unsigned but in red (emigrants reduce the population of the UK).Estimates of the numbers of migrants entering minus the numbers of migrants leaving the UK ("Net migration estimates") are identified in these tables as "Balance". Balance estimates are held in Excel as numbers and are formatted to appear as signed numbers in black. A positive number indicates that the inflow exceeds the outflow and that the net flow has increased the population of the UK. A negative number indicates that the outflow exceeds the inflow and that the net flow has decreased the population of the UK. Because of the way inflow and outflow estimates are stored in Excel, the balance estimates are the mathematical sum (before rounding) of the corresponding inflow and outflow estimates.+International Migration  Table of ContentsReliability of IPS estimatesIn the past, we have used standard error expressed as a percentage to indicate the reliability of IPS inflow and outflow estimates. Confidence intervals and standard errors are mathematically related:@Standard error % = 95% confidence interval / (0.0196 x estimate)RoundingAll estimates in this spreadsheet are individually rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not add exactly due to this rounding.All confidence intervals in this spreadsheet are also rounded to the nearest thousand. In particular, please note that a confidence interval which rounds to zero does not imply certainty, only that the confidence interval is less than 500.When calculating the upper and lower confidence interval limits for a given estimate, please take into account that both the estimate and the confidence interval have been rounded to the nearest thousand.Special values0~ Rounds to zero.#Please see notes on Rounding above.Copyright and reproduction :The content of this spreadsheet is Crown copyright 2018.You may reuse this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence.To view this licence, go to: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/opengovernmentlicence/ or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU. Email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.ukFurther informationeFor further information about longterm international migration, please email migstatsunit@ons.gov.ukData supplier:"Centre for International MigrationOffice for National StatisticsSegensworth RoadFAREHAMPO15 5RRThe following source of data is used to compile the estimates by quarter of longterm international migration into and out of the UK:K"0~"  Rounds to zero. Please see the Notes worksheet for more information.The International Passenger Survey (IPS) is the sole source of longterm international migration data by quarter, providing estimates of both inflows and outflows, but it does not cover all migration types. The IPS is a continuous voluntary survey conducted at all principal air and sea routes and the Channel Tunnel. It is a sample survey and the resultant figures are grossed up by weighting factors dependent on route and time of year. The figures produced are therefore estimates, not exact counts.Care should be taken when comparing the data in this table with those in our other publications. See "All estimates by quarter are labelled as experimental statistics" above for further information. The 2018 data used to compile the estimates in this report are provisional. Estimates for quarters one and two of 2018 are therefore provisional. Final estimates will be published on 28 November 2019.jFor a full definition of these citizenship groupings, please see 'Citizenship / Nationality groupings' in:%Using the time series chart (Chart A)$When comparing different selections of data, please be aware that the chart adjusts its vertical scale to suit the data displayed. The vertical scale is displayed to the left of the chart.NFurthermore, IPS inflow data for full years is calibrated against Labour Force Survey (LFS) data which provides a geographical distribution of longterm immigrants. This is not possible for individual quarters. Because of this inflow estimates (and therefore balance estimates) will not necessarily match IPS estimates for full years.2This publication uses 95% confidence intervals to indicate the reliability of the IPS estimates by quarter in Table A. 95% confidence intervals give a readily understood range in which the true value is likely to lie  there is a 95% probability that the true figure lies in the range: estimate +/ confidence interval. Users are advised to be cautious when making inferences from estimates with relatively large< confidence intervals. For inflow and outflow estimates where the lower confidence limit is below zero users should assume the estimate is above zero.nu\The following special value is used for estimates and their associated confidence intervals:The chart enables the user to select the exact data required. To select the data, click on the up/down arrows in the yellow boxes at the top of the chart. The chart titles will alter to reflect the information selected.^International Passenger Survey (IPS) estimates of longterm international migration by quarter2008
Q32008
Q42009
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42010
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42011
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42012
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42013
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42014
Q12014
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Q32014
Q42015
Q12015
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Q42016
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Q3Selected flow data:sLongterm international migration varies considerably on a seasonal basis. This chart illustrates that seasonality.vThe table in this spreadsheet has an accompanying chart intended to help the user observe seasonal trends in the data.Chart A is designed to help the user visualise seasonal fluctuations. Longer term trends can be seen most clearly by looking at the charts for consecutive rolling years published in our main Quarterly Provisional Report spreadsheet.Longterm international migration is also changing on a longer term basis. Longer term trends can be seen most clearly by looking at the charts for consecutive rolling years published in our main Quarterly Provisional Report spreadsheet.XTable A:
IPS estimates of longterm international migration by quarter and citizenshipChart A:
Times series chart of IPS estimates of longterm international migration by quarter for selected citizenship group and flow directionBecause of the small sample sizes involved in individual quarter data, estimates by quarter and citizenship are only available for three citizenship groupings  British (including citizens of British Overseas territories.), European Union (EU) excluding British and nonEU.ISome estimates by quarter by citizenship that can be selected in Chart A are based upon very small samples and can be unreliable. Please refer to Table A for full details of the confidence intervals surrounding the estimates. Users are advised to be cautious when making inferences from estimates with large confidence intervals.AHOur rolling year estimates of LTIM are about 90% based on data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) but in addition include adjustments for asylum seekers, migrant switchers and Northern Ireland land border moves. Detailed analyses (including these estimates by quarter), because of the characteristics of the other data sources, are only possible when based upon IPS data alone. YUncalibrated data by quarter for the United Kingdom, forty quarters ending 2018 Quarter 25Student immigration for the academic year 2016  2017The IPS assurance review highlighted that the IPS is more susceptible to sampling variability for students as most students arrive at the start of the academic year creating a cluster effect.BIn carrying out the IPS assurance review, our quality work suggested an unusual decrease in the student immigration estimates for 2016 quarter 3, as this decrease was not seen in other comparable nonEU data sources. Consequently, this feeds in to immigration and net migration estimates, particularly for nonEU citizens.European Union2 NonEuropean Union3 2016 Quarter 31 D1 In carrying out the IPS assurance review, our quality work suggested an unusual decrease in the student immigration estimates for 2016 quarter 3, as this decrease was not seen in other comparable nonEU data sources. Consequently, this feeds in to immigration and net migration estimates, particularly for nonEU citizens.2 European Union estimates are for the EU15 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) up to 2003, the EU25 (the EU15 and the EU8 groupings plus Malta and Cyprus) from 2004 to 2006, the EU27 (the EU25 plus Bulgaria and Romania) from 2007 and the EU28 (the EU27 plus Croatia) from July 2013. British citizens are excluded from the EU grouping and are shown separately. O3 Excludes British and other European Union citizens as defined in footnote 2.As a result of this unusual pattern, we produced an illustrative revised trend for the IPS nonEU student immigration estimates in our Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: July 2018. These are for illustrative purposes only and we have not made any changes to the published IPS or LTIM figures or to the uncalibrated IPS estimates for the quarter. We plan to review this and consider whether a formal adjustment should be made..0Estimates by quarter are not official statistics2Estimates for 2018 Q1 and 2018 Q2 are provisional.1Estimates by quarter are not official statistics.?It is important to note that estimates by quarter are not as robust as our estimates for rolling years and are not official statistics. This is due to the small sample sizes involved and because the complete methodology applied to our estimates for full years cannot be applied to our estimates for individual quarters.Estimates of international migration, by individual quarter, can be derived from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) as a by product of our IPS annual processing. They are not official statistics, but we are making them available in response to user requests for the information.We recommend users do not use these data and instead refer to the rolling years quarterly tables. Due to the seasonal nature of international migration and the small sample sizes involved for individual quarter data, users should be cautious with any interpretation of individual quarter estimates, especially where the corresponding confidence interval is large in comparison to the estimate. Users are advised to use the spinner control in Table A to distinguish seasonal fluctuations from longer term trends.TU ^WhWgXqXwYSZ][\^
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