1. Other pages in this release
Other commentary from the latest labour market data can be found on the following pages:
Back to table of contents2. Main points for May to July 2019
Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain increased to 4.0% for total pay (including bonuses), and fell to 3.8% for regular pay (excluding bonuses).
In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth in total pay is estimated to be 2.1% and annual growth in regular pay is estimated to be 1.9%.
Of the sectors reported on, Construction and Finance and Business services are experiencing the highest pay growth, of over 5% (not adjusted for inflation) for total pay; manufacturing is experiencing the lowest pay growth, of 2.4%.
The estimated rate of growth in public sector pay fell as the impact of different timings this year for pay rises to some NHS staff lessened
The estimates in this bulletin come from a survey of businesses. It is not possible to survey every business each month, so these statistics are estimates based on a sample, not precise figures.
3. Analysis
Figure 1: Pay for employees (including bonuses) grew by 2.1% on the year when adjusted for inflation; pay excluding bonuses grew by 1.9%
Great Britain average weekly earnings annual growth rates, seasonally adjusted, January to March 2001 to May to July 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics - Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey
Download this chart Figure 1: Pay for employees (including bonuses) grew by 2.1% on the year when adjusted for inflation; pay excluding bonuses grew by 1.9%
Image .csv .xlsThe earnings estimates are not just a measure of pay rises as they also reflect changes in the number of paid hours worked and changes in the structure of the workforce; for example, more high-paid jobs would have an upward effect on earnings growth rates.
The rate of pay growth has been trending upwards since mid 2017. In May to July 2019 that trend has continued for total pay whereas annual growth in regular pay dipped by 0.1 percentage point when compared with April to June 2019.
Factors that contribute to that pattern are:
the timing of bonus payments: bonus payments in 2019 were slightly lower in March (the month in which bonuses are highest) compared with a year earlier, and higher in May to July; this impacts the pattern of growth in total pay
one-off payments were made to some NHS staff in April 2019; this impacted public sector pay growth in the period April to June whereas the effect of that payment is not present in May to July estimates.
Figure 2: Despite recent growth, earnings in real terms are lower than before the 2008 to 2009 recession
Great Britain average weekly earnings excluding bonuses, seasonally adjusted, January 2000 to July 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics - Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey
Download this chart Figure 2: Despite recent growth, earnings in real terms are lower than before the 2008 to 2009 recession
Image .csv .xlsFor July 2019, average regular pay, before tax and other deductions, for employees in Great Britain was estimated at:
£507 per week in nominal terms
£470 per week in real terms (constant 2015 prices), higher than the estimate for a year earlier (£461 per week), but £3 (0.7%) lower than the pre-recession peak of £473 per week for April 2008
The equivalent figures for total pay in real terms are £502 per week in July 2019 and £525 in February 2008, a 4.3% difference.
Figure 3: Average earnings, including bonuses, in the construction sector grew by 6.2% on the year
Annual growth in Great Britain nominal average weekly earnings (including bonuses), seasonally adjusted, between May to July 2018 and May to July 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics - Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey
Download this chart Figure 3: Average earnings, including bonuses, in the construction sector grew by 6.2% on the year
Image .csv .xlsBetween May to July 2018 and May to July 2019, average total pay growth (including bonuses) varied by industry sector:
Construction saw the highest estimated growth of 6.2%, compared with the whole economy average of 4.0%
Manufacturing saw the lowest growth, estimated at 2.4%
The pattern of higher growth in construction and finance and business services, and lower growth in manufacturing and wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants has been evident throughout 2019.
Figure 4: Public sector annual pay growth has fallen to 3.7%, as the impact of some 2019 NHS pay rises being implemented earlier than in 2018 weakens
Annual growth in Great Britain nominal average weekly earnings (including bonuses) for the public and private sector, seasonally adjusted, between June 2018 and July 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics - Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey
Download this chart Figure 4: Public sector annual pay growth has fallen to 3.7%, as the impact of some 2019 NHS pay rises being implemented earlier than in 2018 weakens
Image .csv .xlsBetween May to July 2018 and May to July 2019, public sector annual total pay grew by 3.7%, down from 4.0% in April to June 2019.
This public sector pay growth is impacted by the timing of NHS pay rises which saw some April 2018 pay increases not being paid until summer 2018. As a result, public sector pay estimates for the months April to July 2019 include two NHS pay raises for 2018 and 2019 when compared 2018. Further, the single month of April 2019 included a one-off payment to some NHS staff.
Back to table of contents4. Data
Average weekly earnings
Dataset EARN01 | Released 10 September 2019
Headline estimates of earnings growth in Great Britain (seasonally adjusted).
Average weekly earnings by sector
Dataset EARN02 | Released 10 September 2019
Estimates of earnings in Great Britain broken down to show the effects of changes in wages and the effects of changes in the composition of employment (not seasonally adjusted)
Average weekly earnings by industry
Dataset EARN03 | Released 10 September 2019
Estimates earnings in Great Britain broken down by detailed industrial sector (not seasonally adjusted).
| Including bonuses (Jan to Apr)¹ ² | Including bonuses (May to Dec)¹ ² | Excluding bonuses¹ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole economy | ± 0.9 | ± 0.5 | ± 0.5 |
| Private sector | ± 0.9 | ± 0.6 | ± 0.5 |
| Public sector | ± 0.9 | ± 0.5 | ± 0.5 |
| Services | ± 1.0 | ± 0.6 | ± 0.5 |
| Finance and business services | ± 2.8 | ± 1.6 | ± 1.4 |
| Public sector excluding financial services | ± 0.7 | ± 0.5 | ± 0.5 |
| Manufacturing | ± 1.1 | ± 1.0 | ± 0.9 |
| Construction | ± 2.5 | ± 2.6 | ± 2.4 |
| Wholesale and retail, hotels and restaurants | ± 2.1 | ± 1.7 | ± 1.5 |
Download this table Table 1: Sampling variability for average weekly earnings single month growth rates (percentage points)
.xls .csv5. Glossary
Average Weekly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) is the lead monthly measure of average weekly earnings per employee. It is calculated using information based on the Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey (MWSS), which samples around 9,000 employers in Great Britain.
The estimates are not just a measure of pay rises as they do not, for example, adjust for changes in the proportion of the workforce who work full-time or part-time, or other compositional changes within the workforce. The estimates do not include earnings of self-employed people.
Estimates are available for both total pay (which includes bonus payments) and for regular pay (which excludes bonuses). Estimates are available in both nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) and real terms (adjusted for inflation).
Bonus
A bonus is a form of reward or recognition granted by an employer. When an employee receives a bonus payment, there is no expectation or assumption that the bonus will be used to cover any specific expense. The value and timing of a bonus payment can be at the discretion of the employer or stipulated in workplace agreements.
Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)
As of 21 March 2017, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) became our lead measure of inflation. It is our most comprehensive measure of UK consumer price inflation.
Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey (MWSS)
A survey through which we collect information on wages and salaries. It is distributed monthly to around 9,000 employers covering around 12.8 million employees.
A more detailed glossary is available.
Back to table of contents6. Measuring the data
This bulletin relies on data collected from the Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey, a survey of employers in Great Britain excluding small businesses employing fewer than 20 people.
The Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report pulls together important qualitative information on the various dimensions of data quality, as well as providing a summary of the methods used to compile the output.
Back to table of contents7. Strengths and limitations
The figures in this bulletin come from a survey of businesses, which gathers information from a sample rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations such as time and cost constraints. Results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons.
As the number of people available in the sample gets smaller, the variability of the estimates that we can make from that sample size gets larger. Estimates for small groups (for example, earnings for the construction sector), which are based on quite small subsets of the Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey sample, are less reliable and tend to be more volatile than for larger aggregated groups (for example, earnings for the private sector).
In general, short-term changes in the growth rates reported in this bulletin are not usually greater than the level that can be explained by sampling variability. Short-term movements in reported rates should be considered alongside longer-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in other sources to give a fuller picture.
Further information is available in A guide to labour market statistics and A guide to sources of data on earnings and income.
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