Statistical bulletin: UK Trade, November 2011

UK Trade November 2011

• The UK’s deficit on seasonally adjusted trade in goods and services was £2.6 billion in November, compared with the deficit of £1.9 billion in October.
• The deficit on seasonally adjusted trade in goods was £8.6 billion in November, compared with the deficit of £7.9 billion in October.
• The surplus on seasonally adjusted trade in services was estimated at £6.1 billion in November, compared with the surplus of £6.0 billion in October.
• Excluding oil and erratic items, the seasonally adjusted volume of exports was 1.7 per cent lower, and the volume of imports was 1.1 per cent higher in November, compared with October.
• Export prices of goods fell by 0.4 per cent and import prices of goods fell by 0.2 per cent, compared with October.

UK Trade in Goods Summary for November 2011

Balance of UK trade November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (18 Kb)

Balance of UK trade in goods November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (19 Kb)

Supplementary Analysis Page:

The UK’s deficit in Trade in Goods and Services increased to £2.6 billion in November, up from £1.9 billion in October. 

The UK’s surplus in Trade in Services increased to an estimated £6.1 billion, up from £6.0 billion in October. Exports of services rose by less than £0.1 billion (0.2 per cent) to £15.9 billion and imports of services fell by less than £0.1 billion (0.5 per cent) to reach £9.9 billion.

The UK’s deficit in Trade in Goods increased to £8.6 billion, up from the deficit of £7.9 billion in October. Exports of goods fell by £0.4 billion (1.5 per cent) from £26.1 billion in October to £25.7 billion in November, and imports of goods rose by £0.4 billion (1.1 per cent) from October’s £34.0 billion to £34.4 billion in November.

Exports

The £0.4 billion decrease in exports of goods was made up of slightly increased exports to EU countries of £13.6 billion (up by less than £0.1 billion from October) and reduced exports to non-EU countries of £12.2 billion (down £0.4 billion from October).

The decrease in exports was driven by lower exports of silver (down £0.3 billion) to non-EU countries, including India. Exports of intermediate goods and consumer goods other than cars, were each down £0.2 billion, largely to non-EU countries. This was offset by higher exports of oil (up £0.3 billion) and cars (up £0.1 billion) to EU and non-EU countries.

Imports

The £0.4 billion increase in total imports was made up increased imports from EU countries of £17.2 billion (up £0.4 billion from October) and slightly increased imports from non-EU countries of £17.2 billion. Imports from non-EU countries were at a record level in November 2011, slightly exceeding the previous record in October 2011.

The increase in total imports of goods was made up of higher imports of chemicals (up £0.5 billion) largely from EU countries, including Ireland. The record imports from non-EU countries were driven by increased imports of semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals (up £0.1 billion). 

Volume and Prices

The volume of exports of goods fell by 1.7 per cent, driven by a fall in export volumes of consumer goods excluding cars (down 9.1 per cent) and intermediate goods (down 6.5 per cent), offset by increased exports volumes of cars (up 6.8 per cent) and basic materials (up 6.2 per cent).

Export prices of goods fell by 0.4 per cent, driven by lower prices of  food, drink & tobacco, chemicals, cars, consumer goods other than cars, intermediate goods and capital goods, ships & aircraft and miscellaneous manufactures.

The volume of imports of goods rose by 1.1 per cent, driven by increased import volumes of chemicals (up 15.7 per cent), offset by a decline in import volumes of capital goods (down 4.0 per cent).

Import prices of goods fell by 0.2 per cent, driven by lower prices of chemicals, semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals, cars and consumer goods other than cars.

Note:

Care should be taken when using the month-on-month growth rates due to their volatility.

Value of UK trade in goods (seasonally adjusted)

In November, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods widened by £0.8 billion to £8.6 billion, compared with a deficit of £7.9 billion in October.

Total exports fell by £0.4 billion (1.5 per cent) to £25.7 billion, but total imports rose by £0.4 billion (1.1 per cent) to £34.4 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value, November 2011 compared with October 2011

In the three months ending November, the deficit on trade in goods widened by £0.2 billion to £26.7 billion, compared with a deficit of £26.5 billion in the three months ending August.

Total exports rose by £2.2 billion (3.0 per cent) to £76.3 billion and total imports rose by £2.4 billion (2.3 per cent) to £103.0 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value, September - November 11 compared with June - August 11

Value of UK trade in goods November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (19 Kb)

Value of UK trade in goods excluding oil November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (19 Kb)

Trade in goods - EU analysis (seasonally adjusted)

In November, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries widened by £0.3 billion to £3.6 billion, compared with a deficit of £3.3 billion in October.

EU exports rose by less than £0.1 billion (0.3 per cent) to £13.6 billion and EU imports rose by £0.4 billion (2.1 per cent) to £17.2 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (EU), November 11 compared with October 11

In the three months ending November, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries widened by £0.9 billion to £11.4 billion, compared with a deficit of £10.5 billion in the three months ending August.

EU exports rose by £0.3 billion (0.6 per cent) to £40.2 billion and EU imports rose by £1.1 billion (2.2 per cent) to £51.6 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (EU), Sep - Nov 11 compared with Jun - Aug 11

Balance of trade in goods - EU countries November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (32 Kb)

Trade in goods - non-EU analysis (seasonally adjusted)

In November, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries widened by £0.5 billion to £5.0 billion, compared with a deficit of £4.6 billion in October.

Non-EU exports fell by £0.4 billion (3.5 per cent) to £12.2 billion and non-EU imports rose by less than £0.1 billion (0.1 per cent) to £17.2 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (non-EU), November 11 compared with October 11

In the three months ending November, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.7 billion to £15.3 billion, compared with a deficit of £16.0 billion in the three months ending August.

Non-EU exports rose by £1.9 billion (5.7 per cent) to £36.1 billion and non-EU imports rose by £1.2 billion (2.5 per cent) to £51.4 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (non-EU), Sep - Nov 11 compared with Jun - Aug 11

Balance of trade in goods - non-EU countries November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (18.5 Kb)

Trade in goods - one month geographical analysis (seasonally adjusted)

November 2011 compared with October 2011

Within EU countries, exports to the Netherlands rose by £0.2 billion. Among Non-EU countries, exports to the USA rose by £0.2 billion, while exports to India fell by £0.4 billion.

Within EU countries, imports from the Irish Republic rose by £0.3 billion. Among Non-EU countries, imports from Switzerland and Norway both rose by £0.2 billion. Imports from Nigeria and the USA both fell by £0.2 billion and imports from China and Russia both fell by £0.1 billion.

Significant partner country 1 month balances November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (31.5 Kb)

Trade in goods - quarterly geographical analysis (seasonally adjusted)

Three months ending November 2011 compared with the three months ending August 2011

Within EU countries, exports to Germany and the Netherlands both rose by £0.4 billion. Among Non-EU countries exports to the USA rose by £0.7 billion and exports to India rose by £0.4 billion.

Within EU countries, imports from Germany rose by £0.5 billion. Among Non-EU countries, imports from Norway rose by £0.6 billion and imports from the USA rose by £0.5 billion. Imports from Russia fell by £0.6 billion and imports from Switzerland fell by £0.4 billion.

Significant partner country 3 month balances, 3 months ending November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (18 Kb)

Volume of total trade in goods, excluding oil and erratics (seasonally adjusted)

In November, the volume of exports fell by 1.7 per cent but the volume of imports rose by 1.1 per cent, compared with October. At the commodity level:

In the three months ending November, the volume of exports rose by 3.7 per cent and the volume of imports rose by 1.5 per cent, compared with the three months ending August. At the commodity level:

Volume of exports of goods (finished manufactures) 3 months ending November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (30 Kb)

Volume of imports of goods (finished manufactures) 3 months ending November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (16 Kb)

Export and import prices for trade in goods (not seasonally adjusted)

In November, export prices fell by 0.4 per cent and import prices fell by 0.2 per cent, compared with October. This led to a decrease in the terms of trade. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices fell by 0.7 per cent and import prices fell by 0.3 per cent.

In the three months ending November, export prices rose by 0.4 per cent and import prices rose by 0.7 per cent. This led to a decrease in the terms of trade. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices rose by 0.2 per cent and import prices rose by 0.5 per cent.

Export and import prices (goods) November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (18 Kb)

Export and import prices (goods) excluding oil price effect November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (18 Kb)

 

Trade in oil (seasonally adjusted)

In November, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £1.5 billion, compared with a deficit of £1.6 billion in October. Oil exports rose by £0.3 billion to £3.2 billion and oil imports rose by £0.1 billion to £4.7 billion.

In the three months ending November, the deficit on trade in oil was £4.5 billion, compared with the deficit of £3.9 billion in the three months ending August. Oil exports rose by £0.3 billion to £9.0 billion and oil imports rose by £0.8 billion to £13.4 billion.

Balance on trade in oil November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (18 Kb)

Trade in services (seasonally adjusted)

In November, the UK’s estimated surplus on trade in services rose to £6.1 billion, compared with the estimated surplus of £6.0 billion in October.

Exports rose by less than £0.1 billion (0.2 per cent) to £15.9 billion and imports fell by less than £0.1 billion (0.5 per cent) to £9.9 billion.

In the three months ending November, the estimated surplus on trade in services widened by £0.2 billion to £18.0 billion, compared with the surplus of £17.7 billion in the three months ending August.

Total exports remained at £47.5 billion and total imports fell by £0.2 billion (0.8 per cent) to £29.5 billion.

Value of UK trade in services November 2011

Download chart

• XLS format
  (19 Kb)

Records Sheet

UK trade record information for November 2011 can be accessed at the ONS website and can be accessed by clicking on UK Trade, November 2011 dataset page.

UK Trade pre release list November 2011

UK trade pre release list can be found on the ONS website and can be accessed by viewing the pre release access list (26.6 Kb Pdf) .

Background notes

1. Code of Practice for Official Statistics

   National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. © Crown copyright 2012.

2. Understanding the data

   Short Guide to UK Trade

   Ever since statistics on exports and imports of goods were first collected in 1697 UK trade has been one of the country’s key economic indicators.

   All information included in the monthly UK Trade Statistical Bulletin is on a Balance of Payments (BoP) basis and is seasonally adjusted. The release contains tables showing the total value of trade in goods together with index numbers of volume and price, figures analysed by broad commodity group (values and indices) and according to geographical area (values only). In addition the Trade statistical bulletin also includes early monthly estimates of the value of trade in services.

   Data appearing in the UK Trade statistical bulletin are also used as a direct input into the quarterly Balance of Payments and National Accounts.

   Interpreting the data

   Monthly commodity movements for Food, beverages and tobacco, Basic materials, Fuels other than oil, and Erratics (Ships, Aircraft, Precious stones, and Silver) are only detailed in this Statistical Bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £200 million (£400 million for three monthly comparisons).
   Monthly country movements are only detailed in this Statistical Bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £0.1 billion (£0.3billion for three monthly comparisons).

   VAT Missing Trader Intra Community (MTIC) fraud

   Import figures for trade in goods include adjustments to allow for the impact of VAT MTIC fraud.
   The adjustments to trade in goods relate only to part of the carousel version of VAT MTIC fraud. This fraud leads to under recording of imports as fraudsters import goods from the EU, which they then sell on before disappearing without paying VAT on that sale. The goods are eventually exported. Such exports are declared and are therefore already reflected in the UK’s trade in goods statistics.

   Changes to the pattern of trading associated with MTIC fraud can make it difficult to analyse trade by commodity group and by country as changes in the impact of activity associated with this fraud affect both imports and exports. However, the MTIC trade adjustments are added to the EU import estimates derived from Intrastat returns as it is this part of the trading chain that is not generally recorded. In particular, adjustments affect trade in capital goods and intermediate goods - these categories include mobile phones and computer components, which are still the most widely affected goods.

   International convention determines that the treatment of the impact is to adjust imports upwards by the relevant amounts of missing declarations (non-response). However, users may wish to interpret short term movements in imports excluding that part of the fraudulent activity that is not included in the import estimates, and for this purpose an analysis of the import figures with the VAT MTIC adjustments excluded is shown in Table 13.

   Definitions and explanations

   A glossary of terms is published in the UK Balance of Payments (Pink Book).  

   Use of the data

   UK Trade is a key economic indicator due to the importance of international trade to the UK economy. It is also a very timely statistic, providing an early indicator of what is happening more generally in the economy.

   In addition, it is a major component of two other key economic statistics – UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the UK Balance of Payments. This means that there is a threefold potential for UK Trade statistics to inform the Government’s view of the UK economy, as well as the views of others, such as economists, City analysts, academics, the media, and international organisations.

   Notes on tables – rounding:

   The sum of constituent items in tables do not always agree exactly with the totals shown due to rounding.

   Symbols
   ..    Not applicable
   -     Nil or less than half the final digit shown.

3. Methods

   • Composition of the data
     Detailed methodological notes are published in the UK Balance of Payments (Pink Book).
   • Seasonal adjustment
     Seasonal adjustment aims to remove effects associated with the time of the year or the arrangement of the calendar so that movements within a time series may be more easily interpreted.
   • Deflation
     It is common for the value of a group of financial transactions to be measured in several time periods. The values measured will include both the change in the volume sold and the effect of the change of prices over that year. Deflation is the process whereby the effect of price change is removed from a set of values.
     Chain-linked indices (chained volume measures) which are indexed to form the volume series in this bulletin differ from fixed base indices in that the growth from one year to the next is estimated by weighting the components using the contribution to value of trade in the immediately preceding year (effectively re-basing every year). This series of annually re-weighted annual growths is then ‘chain-linked’ to produce a continuous series.
     The implied price deflators derived by comparing current price data to chained volume measures data are not the same as the price indices published in this statistical bulletin because the former are current weighted while the latter are base (2008) weighted.
     Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution.
      

   A paper entitled Overseas Trade Statistics Methodology describing the basis on which trade in goods statistics are compiled is available on the UK Trade Info website :
   A further paper Statistics on Trade in Goods (GSS Methodological Series No. 36) describing the adjustments that need to be applied to conform to IMF definitions for Balance of Payments and the division of responsibility between ONS and HMRC is available on the National Statistics website
   The Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS) data used as inputs to this statistical bulletin are collected and published by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) on an International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) basis.

4. Quality

   Basic quality information

   Accuracy: Trade in goods figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in the light of (a) late trader data, revisions to trade prices and revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, and (b) revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month.

   Trade in services estimates have been derived from a number of monthly and quarterly sources. For components where no monthly data are available, estimates have been derived on the basis of recent trends. The results should be used with appropriate caution, as they are therefore likely to be less reliable than those for trade in goods. More details of the data sources, estimation methodology and reliability of the monthly estimates of trade in services were set out in Economic Trends (January 1996 and September 1997).

   Reliability: Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. The table below shows summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to the data covering a five year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows that the test is significant. An article explaining the past revisions performance for UK Trade statistics and what is being done to improve the first published estimates was published on 9 May 2005.

   Revisions table November 2011

   £million
   Revisions between first publication and estimates twelve months later
   Value in latest period		Average over the last 5 years (mean revision)	Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
   Total trade exports (IKBH)	41 681	869	1 124
   Total trade imports (IKBI)	44 247	628	986
   Total trade balance (IKBJ)	-2 566	248	534

   Download table

   • XLS format
     (14 Kb)

   The table covers estimates of UK trade first published from May 2005 (for March 2005) to December 2010 (for October 2010).  Spreadsheets giving these estimates and the calculations behind the averages in the table is available on the National Statistics website 

   An article analysing past revisions to quarterly balance of payments current account data was published in the May 2007 edition of Economic & Labour Market Review. It is available on the National Statistics website

   More information about revisions material in this Statistical Bulletin can be found on the National Statistics website

5. Coherence - EU enlargement and country coverage: Two more countries joined the EU from 1 January 2007. These countries were Bulgaria and Romania. In addition, the coverage of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries was extended to include Slovenia.  In order to enable users to make long-run comparisons, data for the new definition EU and non-EU was produced from January 1998 onwards for value, and from January 1999 onwards for volume and price indices. At the same time data for the old definitions were no longer maintained. There are additional series for country groupings on the old definitions.

   The coverage of EMU countries was extended to cover Cyprus and Malta from July 2008, Slovakia from January 2009, and Estonia from January 2011.  Some EU and non-EU breakdowns of commodity data for Chained Volume Measures which are available from the Statbase® service may be less reliable than the current price data. Please consult Marilyn Thomas on 01633 455708 if you are considering using them.
   Data have been combined for the United States and Puerto Rico, and for Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah (the United Arab Emirates) from January 2009 onwards. Estimates are separately available for the United States and Dubai up till the end of 2008 on request.

6. Summary quality report

   A Summary Quality Report for this Statistical Bulletin and associated data can be found on the National Statistics website (91.3 Kb Pdf)  

7. National Accounts revisions policy

   National Accounts revision policy (67.8 Kb Pdf) can be viewed on the ONS website.

8. Revisions

   Table 14R shows revisions to the main aggregates since the last Trade Statistical Bulletin of 9 December 2011. The revisions to trade in goods from October 2011 reflect revised data from Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs and other data suppliers, revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, later survey data on trade prices and a re-assessment of seasonal factors.

   Revisions to trade in services data, from January 2010 onwards, bring the monthly data into line with the UK Output, Income and Expenditure Statistical Bulletin published on 22 December 2011.

9. Publication policy

   Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office. Also available is a list of the organisations given pre-publication access to the contents of this bulletin.

10. Accessing data

    Supplementary commodity data for this Statistical Bulletin (Monthly Review of External Trade Statistics); and quarterly data analysed by industry according to the Standard Industrial Classification (UK Trade in Goods Analysed in Terms of Industries) are also available free of charge as PDF files on the National Statistics website.

    The complete run of data in the tables of this Statistical Bulletin are also available to view and download in other electronic formats free of charge using the ONS Time Series Data website service. Users can download the complete Statistical Bulletin in a choice of zipped formats, or view and download their own selections of individual series. The Time Series Data service can be accessed via the ONS website.

11. Follow @statisticsons on Twitter and receive up to date information about our statistical releases

12. Like facebook.com/statisticsons to receive our updates in your newsfeed and to post comments on our page

13. Watch our videos at YouTube/onsstats

14. Next publication: 9 February 2012

    Issued by: Office for National Statistics, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport NP10 8XG

    Media contact:

    Luke Croydon               0845 6041858
    Emergency on-call        07867 906553
    Email  media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    Statistical contact:

    Tel Marilyn Thomas    01633 455708
    Email trade.in.goods@ons.gov.uk

    Contact us:

    Tel  0845 601 3034
    Email  info@ons.gov.uk
    Website www.ons.gov.uk

15. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Statistical contacts