Statistical bulletin: UK Trade, January 2012

UK Trade January 2012

• The UK’s deficit on seasonally adjusted trade in goods and services was £1.8 billion in January, compared with the deficit of £1.2 billion in December.
• The deficit on seasonally adjusted trade in goods was £7.5 billion in January, compared with the deficit of £7.2 billion in December.
• The surplus on seasonally adjusted trade in services was estimated at £5.8 billion in January, compared with the surplus of £6.0 billion in December.
• Excluding oil and erratic items, the seasonally adjusted volume of exports was 2.2 per cent higher, and the volume of imports was 1.8 per cent higher in January, compared with December.
• Export prices of goods rose by 0.8 per cent and import prices of goods rose by 0.9 per cent, compared with December.

UK Trade in Goods Summary for January 2012

Balance of UK trade January 2012

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Balance of UK trade in goods January 2012

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Correction Notice

A significant error has been discovered in the trade in goods country dataset.  This error was caused by a mistake in the processing of adjustments applied to data and affects all published country data from January 2011.  The UK Trade statistical bulletin, time series data, Excel and PDF tables have all been affected and have now been updated.

Supplementary Analysis Page:

The UK’s deficit in Trade in Goods and Services increased to £1.8 billion in January, up from £1.2 billion in December.

The UK’s surplus in Trade in Services decreased to an estimated £5.8 billion in January, down from £6.0 billion in December. Exports of services fell by £0.4 billion (2.7 per cent) to £15.2 billion and imports of services fell by £0.3 billion (2.7 per cent) to reach £9.5 billion.

The UK’s deficit in Trade in Goods increased to £7.5 billion in January, up from the deficit of £7.2 billion in December. Exports of goods increased by £0.5 billion (2.0 per cent), from £25.6 billion in December to £26.1 billion in January. Imports of goods increased by £0.8 billion (2.6 per cent), from £32.7 billion in December to £33.6 billion in January.

EU

The deficit in trade in goods with EU countries widened by £0.3 billion to £3.9 billion in January, compared with the deficit of £3.6 billion in December, as exports fell slightly (by less than £0.1 billion) to £13.1 billion, but imports rose by £0.2 billion to £17.0 billion.

Non-EU

The deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries increased by £0.1 billion to £3.7 billion in January, compared with the deficit of £3.6 billion in December, as exports rose by £0.5 billion to £12.9 billion, and imports rose by £0.6 billion to £16.6 billion. Exports of goods to non-EU countries were at a record level in January 2012 (and in the three months to January 2012).

Exports

The increase in total exports of goods was driven by higher exports of cars (up £0.5 billion), particularly to non-EU countries including the US, Russia and China, and oil (up £0.3 billion), particularly to EU countries including the Netherlands and Germany. These were offset by lower exports of chemicals (down £0.2 billion) and consumer goods other than cars (down £0.1 billion) to EU and non-EU countries.

Imports

The increase in total imports of goods was made up of higher imports of oil (up £0.4 billion) from EU and particularly non-EU countries including Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Russia, chemicals (up £0.3 billion), particularly from EU countries including Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, and also from non-EU countries including the US and Switzerland, and intermediate goods (up £0.2 billion) from EU and non-EU countries. These were offset by lower imports of capital goods (down £0.2 billion) from EU countries.

Volume and Prices

The volume of exports of goods (excluding oil and erratics) rose by 2.2 per cent, driven by a rise in export volumes of cars (up 31.4 per cent) and basic materials (up 14.1 per cent). These were offset by lower export volumes of consumer goods other than cars (down 6.5 per cent). Exports prices of goods rose by 0.8 per cent.

The volume of imports of goods (excluding oil and erratics) rose by 1.8 per cent, driven by increased import volumes of basic materials (up 6.8 per cent), chemicals (up 6.5 per cent) and cars (up 4.8 per cent). These were offset by lower import volumes of consumer goods other than cars and food, beverages & tobacco (each down 2.0 per cent). Import prices of goods rose by 0.9 per cent.

Note:

Care should be taken when using the month-on-month growth rates due to their volatility.

Value of UK trade in goods (seasonally adjusted)

In January, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods increased by £0.3 billion to £7.5 billion, compared with the deficit of £7.2 billion in December.

Total exports rose by £0.5 billion (2.0 per cent) to £26.1 billion, and total imports rose by £0.8 billion (2.6 per cent) to £33.6 billion. At the commodity level:

In the three months ending January, the deficit on trade in goods decreased by £3.0 billion to £23.8 billion, compared with the deficit of £26.8 billion in the three months ending October.

Total exports rose by £1.9 billion (2.5 per cent) to £76.9 billion, but total imports fell by £1.2 billion (1.1 per cent) to £100.7 billion. At the commodity level:

Value of UK trade in goods January 2012

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Value of UK trade in goods excluding oil January 2012

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Trade in goods - EU analysis (seasonally adjusted)

In January, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries widened by £0.3 billion to £3.9 billion, compared with the deficit of £3.6 billion in December.

EU exports fell by less than £0.1 billion (0.3 per cent) to £13.1 billion, but EU imports rose by £0.2 billion (1.4 per cent) to £17.0 billion. At the commodity level:

In the three months ending January, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries widened by £0.1 billion to £11.6 billion, compared with the deficit of £11.5 billion in the three months ending October.

EU exports fell by £0.4 billion (1.0 per cent) to £39.5 billion, and EU imports fell by £0.3 billion (0.6 per cent) to £51.1 billion. At the commodity level:

Balance of trade in goods - EU countries January 2012

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Trade in goods - non-EU analysis (seasonally adjusted)

In January, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries increased by £0.1 billion to £3.7 billion, compared with the deficit of £3.6 billion in December.

Non-EU exports rose by £0.5 billion (4.4 per cent) to £12.9 billion, and non-EU imports rose by £0.6 billion (3.9 per cent) to £16.6 billion. At the commodity level:

In the three months ending January, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries decreased by £3.1 billion to £12.2 billion, compared with the deficit of £15.4 billion in the three months ending October.

Non-EU exports rose by £2.3 billion (6.5 per cent) to £37.4 billion but non-EU imports fell by £0.9 billion (1.7 per cent) to £49.7 billion. At the commodity level:

Balance of trade in goods - non-EU countries January 2012

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Trade in goods - one month geographical analysis (seasonally adjusted)

January 2012 compared with December 2011

Within the EU countries, exports to Germany rose by £0.3 billion. Exports to France fell by £0.2 billion and exports to Spain fell by £0.1 billion. Among Non-EU countries, exports to the USA, Russia and South Africa all rose by £0.2 billion.  Exports to Switzerland fell by £0.2 billion and exports to South Korea fell by £0.1 billion.

Within the EU countries, imports from Germany rose by £0.2 billion and imports from Sweden rose by £0.1 billion. Imports from the Irish Republic and Italy both fell by £0.1 billion. Among Non-EU countries, imports from Russia and Nigeria both rose by £0.2 billion and imports from Saudi Arabia rose by £0.1 billion. Imports from Israel fell by £0.2 billion.

Significant partner country 1 month balances January 2012

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Trade in goods - quarterly geographical analysis (seasonally adjusted)

Three months ending January 2012 compared with the three months ending October 2011

Within the EU countries, exports to France rose by £0.4 billion. Among Non-EU countries, exports to the USA rose by £1.2 billion and exports to South Korea rose by £0.6 billion. Exports to Russia rose by £0.3 billion.

Within the EU countries, there were no import movements in excess of £0.2 billion (See background notes, ‘Interpreting the Data’). Among Non-EU countries, imports from the USA fell by £0.4 billion, and imports from China and Nigeria both fell by £0.3 billion.

Significant partner 3 month balances, November 2011 - January 2012

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Volume of total trade in goods, excluding oil and erratics (seasonally adjusted)

In January, the volume of exports rose by 2.2 per cent and the volume of imports rose by 1.8 per cent, compared with December. At the commodity level:

In the three months ending January, the volume of exports rose by 1.6 per cent, and the volume of imports rose by 0.1 per cent, compared with the three months ending October. At the commodity level:

Volume of exports of goods (finished manufactures) January 2012

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Volume of imports of goods (finished manufactures) January 2012

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Export and import prices for trade in goods (not seasonally adjusted)

In January, export prices rose by 0.8 per cent and import prices rose by 0.9 per cent, compared with December. This led to a decrease in the terms of trade. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices remained unchanged and import prices rose by 0.6 per cent.

In the three months ending January, export prices rose by 0.4 per cent but import prices fell by 1.0 per cent. This led to an increase in the terms of trade. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices fell by 0.3 per cent and import prices fell by 1.2 per cent.

 

Export and import prices (goods) January 2012

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Export and import prices (goods) - excluding oil price effect January 2012

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Trade in oil (seasonally adjusted)

In January, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £0.6 billion, compared with a deficit of £0.5 billion in December. Oil exports rose by £0.3 billion to £3.9 billion, and oil imports rose by £0.4 billion to £4.5 billion.

In the three months ending January, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £2.7 billion, compared with the deficit of £4.1 billion in the three months ending October. Oil exports rose by £1.7 billion to £10.5 billion and oil imports rose by £0.4 billion to £13.3 billion.

Balance on trade in oil January 2012

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Trade in services (seasonally adjusted)

In January, the UK’s estimated surplus on trade in services fell to £5.8 billion, compared with the estimated surplus of £6.0 billion in December.

Exports fell by £0.4 billion (2.7 per cent) to £15.2 billion, and imports fell by £0.3 billion (2.7 per cent) to £9.5 billion.

In the three months ending January, the estimated surplus on trade in services narrowed by £0.3 billion to £17.7 billion, compared with the surplus of £18.0 billion in the three months ending October.

Total exports fell by £0.5 billion (1.1 per cent) to £46.5 billion and total imports fell by £0.2 billion (0.8 per cent) to £28.8 billion.

Value of UK trade in services January 2012

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Records Sheet

UK trade record information for January 2012 can be accessed at the ONS website.

Background notes

1. What's new?

   Change of publication date for UK Trade April 2012

   ONS has recently announced via the Publication Hub that the UK trade April 2012 statistical bulletin, initially scheduled for release on Tuesday 12 June, has been moved to Friday 15 June.

   Annual supplementary analysis

   Due to the quality assurance following the re-mapping of Standard Industrial Trade Classification (SITC) REV4 data, the planned supplementary analysis has not been published in this statistical bulletin as noted in last months edition. The annual supplementary analysis will now be published in next months edition.

   UK Trade designated as National Statistics

   The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

   Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

   • meet identified user needs;

   • are well explained and readily accessible;

   • are produced according to sound methods, and

   • are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest.

   Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.

2. Code of Practice for Official Statistics 

   National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. © Crown copyright 2012.

3. Understanding the data

   Short Guide to UK Trade

   Ever since statistics on exports and imports of goods were first collected in 1697 UK trade has been one of the country’s key economic indicators.

   All information included in the monthly UK Trade Statistical Bulletin is on a Balance of Payments (BoP) basis and is seasonally adjusted. The release contains tables showing the total value of trade in goods together with index numbers of volume and price, figures analysed by broad commodity group (values and indices) and according to geographical area (values only). In addition the Trade statistical bulletin also includes early monthly estimates of the value of trade in services.

   Data appearing in the UK Trade statistical bulletin are also used as a direct input into the quarterly Balance of Payments and National Accounts.

   Interpreting the data

   Monthly commodity movements for Food, beverages and tobacco, Basic materials, Fuels other than oil, and Erratics (Ships, Aircraft, Precious stones, and Silver) are only detailed in this Statistical Bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £200 million (£400 million for three monthly comparisons).

   Monthly country movements are only detailed in this Statistical Bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £0.1 billion (£0.3 billion for three monthly comparisons).

   In months where quarterly and three monthly ending percentage changes for index data coincide there may be small differences between the data for methodological reasons. Quarterly data are the indexed form of an underlying constant price (for volume indices) or consistent quantity (for price indices) series. Three month ending data are the average of the index data in that period.

   VAT Missing Trader Intra Community (MTIC) fraud

   Import figures for trade in goods include adjustments to allow for the impact of VAT MTIC fraud.

   The adjustments to trade in goods relate only to part of the carousel version of VAT MTIC fraud. This fraud leads to under recording of imports as fraudsters import goods from the EU, which they then sell on before disappearing without paying VAT on that sale. The goods are eventually exported. Such exports are declared and are therefore already reflected in the UK’s trade in goods statistics.

   Changes to the pattern of trading associated with MTIC fraud can make it difficult to analyse trade by commodity group and by country as changes in the impact of activity associated with this fraud affect both imports and exports. However, the MTIC trade adjustments are added to the EU import estimates derived from Intrastat returns as it is this part of the trading chain that is not generally recorded. In particular, adjustments affect trade in capital goods and intermediate goods - these categories include mobile phones and computer components, which are still the most widely affected goods.

   International convention determines that the treatment of the impact is to adjust imports upwards by the relevant amounts of missing declarations (non-response). However, users may wish to interpret short term movements in imports excluding that part of the fraudulent activity that is not included in the import estimates, and for this purpose an analysis of the import figures with the VAT MTIC adjustments excluded is shown in Table 13.

   Definitions and explanations

   A glossary of terms is published in the UK Balance of Payments Pink Book.

   Use of the data

   UK Trade is a key economic indicator due to the importance of international trade to the UK economy. It is also a very timely statistic, providing an early indicator of what is happening more generally in the economy.

   In addition, it is a major component of two other key economic statistics – UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the UK Balance of Payments. This means that there is a threefold potential for UK Trade statistics to inform the Government’s view of the UK economy, as well as the views of others, such as economists, City analysts, academics, the media, and international organisations.

   Notes on tables – rounding:

   The sum of constituent items in tables do not always agree exactly with the totals shown due to rounding.

   Symbols

   ..    Not applicable

   -     Nil or less than half the final digit shown.

4. Methods

   • Composition of the data

   Detailed methodological notes are published in the UK Balance of Payments (Pink Book).

   • Seasonal adjustment

   Seasonal adjustment aims to remove effects associated with the time of the year or the arrangement of the calendar so that movements within a time series may be more easily interpreted.

   • Deflation

   It is common for the value of a group of financial transactions to be measured in several time periods. The values measured will include both the change in the volume sold and the effect of the change of prices over that year. Deflation is the process whereby the effect of price change is removed from a set of values.

   Chain-linked indices (chained volume measures) which are indexed to form the volume series in this bulletin differ from fixed base indices in that the growth from one year to the next is estimated by weighting the components using the contribution to value of trade in the immediately preceding year (effectively re-basing every year). This series of annually re-weighted annual growths is then ‘chain-linked’ to produce a continuous series.

   The implied price deflators derived by comparing current price data to chained volume measures data are not the same as the price indices published in this statistical bulletin because the former are current weighted while the latter are base (2008) weighted.

   Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution.

   A paper entitled Overseas Trade Statistics Methodology describing the basis on which trade in goods statistics are compiled is available on the UK Trade Info website.

   A further paper Statistics on Trade in Goods (GSS Methodological Series No. 36) describing the adjustments that need to be applied to conform to IMF definitions for Balance of Payments and the division of responsibility between ONS and HMRC is available on the National Statistics website.

   The Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS) data used as inputs to this statistical bulletin are collected and published by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) on an International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) basis.

5. Quality

   Basic quality information

   Accuracy:

   Trade in goods figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in the light of (a) late trader data, revisions to trade prices and revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, and (b) revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month.

   Trade in services estimates have been derived from a number of monthly and quarterly sources. For components where no monthly data are available, estimates have been derived on the basis of recent trends. The results should be used with appropriate caution, as they are therefore likely to be less reliable than those for trade in goods. More details of the data sources, estimation methodology and reliability of the monthly estimates of trade in services were set out in Economic Trends (January 1996 and September 1997).

   Reliability:

   Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. The table below shows summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to the data covering a five year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows that the test is significant. An article explaining the past revisions performance for UK Trade statistics and what is being done to improve the first published estimates was published on 9 May 2005 on the National Statistics website.

   Revisions Table January 2012

   			£million
   		Revisions between first publication and estimates twelve months later
   	Value in latest period	Average over the last 5 years (mean revision)	Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
   Total trade exports (IKBH)	41 305	1055*	1085*
   Total trade imports (IKBI)	43 067	1016*	1064*
   Total trade balance (IKBJ)	-1 762	33	383

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   The table covers estimates of UK trade first published from May 2005 (for March 2005) to February 2011 (for December 2010). Spreadsheets giving these estimates and the calculations behind the averages in the table is available on the National Statistics website

   An article analysing past revisions to quarterly balance of payments current account data was published in the May 2007 edition of Economic & Labour Market Review. It is available on the National Statistics website

   More information about revisions material in this Statistical Bulletin can be found on the National Statistics website

6. Coherence - EU enlargement and country coverage: Two more countries joined the EU from 1 January 2007. These countries were Bulgaria and Romania. In addition, the coverage of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries was extended to include Slovenia. In order to enable users to make long-run comparisons, data for the new definition EU and non-EU was produced from January 1998 onwards for value, and from January 1999 onwards for volume and price indices. At the same time data for the old definitions were no longer maintained. There are additional series for country groupings on the old definitions.

   The coverage of EMU countries was extended to cover Cyprus and Malta from July 2008, Slovakia from January 2009, and Estonia from January 2011. Some EU and non-EU breakdowns of commodity data for Chained Volume Measures which are available from the Statbase® service may be less reliable than the current price data. Please consult Marilyn Thomas on 01633 455708 if you are considering using them.

   Data have been combined for the United States and Puerto Rico, and for Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah (the United Arab Emirates) from January 2009 onwards. Estimates are separately available for the United States and Dubai up until the end of 2008 on request.

7. Summary quality report

   A Summary Quality Report for this Statistical Bulletin and associated data can be found on the National Statistics website.

8. National Accounts revisions policy

   National Accounts revision policy can be found on the National Statistics website.

9. Revisions

   Table 14R shows revisions to the main aggregates since the last Trade Statistical Bulletin of 9 February 2012. The revisions to trade in goods from January 2011 reflect revised data from Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs and other data suppliers, revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, later survey data on trade prices and a re-assessment of seasonal factors.

   Revisions to trade in services data, from January 2011 onwards, bring the monthly data in-line with the Second Estimate of GDP, Q4 2011 Statistical Bulletin published on 24 February 2012.

10. Publication policy

    Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office. Also available is a list of the organisations given pre-publication access to the contents of this bulletin.

11. Accessing data

    Supplementary commodity data for this Statistical Bulletin (Monthly Review of External Trade Statistics); and quarterly data analysed by industry according to the Standard Industrial Classification (UK Trade in Goods Analysed in Terms of Industries) are also available free of charge as PDF files on the National Statistics website.

    The complete run of data in the tables of this Statistical Bulletin are also available to view and download in other electronic formats free of charge using the ONS Time Series Data website service. Users can download the complete Statistical Bulletin in a choice of zipped formats, or view and download their own selections of individual series. The Time Series Data service can be accessed on the National Statistics website.

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14. Watch our videos at YouTube/onsstats

15. Next publication: 12 April 2012

    Issued by: Office for National Statistics, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport NP10 8XG

    Media contact:  

    Luke Croydon               0845 6041858

    Emergency on-call        07867 906553

    Email  media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    Statistical contact:

    Tel Marilyn Thomas    01633 455708

    Email trade.in.goods@ons.gov.uk

    Contact us:

    Tel  0845 601 3034

    Email  info@ons.gov.uk

    Website www.ons.gov.uk

16. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

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