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Statistical bulletin: Public Sector Finances, April 2012 This product is designated as National Statistics

Released: 22 May 2012 Download PDF

Provisional estimates for current month

  • A current budget deficit excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions of £12.4 billion in April 2012.
  • Net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions of -£16.5 billion (a surplus) in April 2012.
  • Net debt excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions was £1,006.3 billion, equivalent to 64.8 per cent of GDP.
  • This month's figures include a large one-off transfer to Government of £28 billion, as part of the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan.

Background

The PSF Statistical Bulletin is published jointly by ONS and HM Treasury on a monthly basis, and provides the latest available measures for key public sector financial statistics  such as Public Sector Current Budget (PSCB), Net Borrowing (PSNB), Net Debt (PSND) and PSND as a percentage of GDP. These key indicators are provided on two bases. 

One set includes the temporary effects of financial interventions made in response to the financial crisis that began in 2007, such as the establishment of public ownership/control of several major banking groups. An alternative set of indicators, the so-called ‘ex-measures’, excludes the temporary effects of financial interventions.

Main Statistics

 

Cumulative public sector net borrowing (ex measure)

Cumulative public sector net borrowing (ex measure) for the current and previous financial years, plus OBR forecasts.
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Net debt as a percentage of GDP excluding financial interventions

Long run of net debt as a percentage of GDP excluding financial interventions
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Public Sector excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions

Not seasonally adjusted, £ billion1
April Financial year  
2012   2011 2011/12  
Current budget -12.4   -8.0 -94.8
Net borrowing -16.5   9.1 124.4
Net debt2 1,006.3   909.6 1,022.6
Net debt (% annual GDP)2 64.8   60.6 66.0
           

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Unless otherwise stated.

  2. Net debt at the end of the period.

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Reconciliation of public finance statistics excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions

Not seasonally adjusted, £ billion
April    Financial year
2012      2011             2011/12
Public sector net investment -28.9 1.0 29.6
minus
Public sector current budget -12.4 -8.0 -94.8
Public sector net borrowing -16.5 9.1 124.4

Table source: Office for National Statistics

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Sectoral breakdown of public sector borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions

Not seasonally adjusted, £ billion
  2012 2011 2011/12
Central government  -14.2 14.0 114.2
Local government -2.4 -4.5 12.3
General government -16.6 9.6 126.5
Public corporations1 0.1 -0.5 -2.1
Public sector -16.5 9.1 124.4

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. For the purposes of this table the Bank of England data has been subsumed into the Public Corporations data

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Fiscal indicators as a percentage of GDP: latest 10 years

Excluding financial sector interventions Including financial sector interventions
Public sector current budget Public sector net borrowing Public sector  net debt at end of period Public sector current budget Public sector net borrowing Public sector  net debt at end of period
2000/01  2.3 -4.0 30.7 2.3 -4.0 30.7
2001/02  1.1 0.1 29.7 1.1 0.1 29.7
2002/03  -1.1 2.4 30.8 -1.1 2.4 30.8
2003/04  -1.6 3.0 32.1 -1.6 3.0 32.1
2004/05  -1.7 3.4 34.1 -1.7 3.4 34.1
2005/06  -1.2 3.0 35.3 -1.2 3.0 35.3
2006/07 -0.5 2.4 35.9 -0.5 2.4 35.9
2007/08  -0.5 2.5 36.7 -0.5 2.5 43.2
2008/09 -3.6 6.9 43.5 -2.7 5.3 150.9
2009/10 -7.7 11.2 52.5 -6.0 9.1 153.8
2010/11 -6.7 9.3 60.5 -4.9 7.5 150.4
2011/12 -6.4 8.2 66.0 -4.4 6.4 148.1

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Fiscal indicators PSNB and PSND are the same including and excluding financial interventions before 2007/08.

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Cumulative public sector current budget (ex measure)

Cumulative public sector current budget (ex measure) for current and previous financial years
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Cumulative public sector net investment (ex measure)

Cumulative public sector net investment (ex measure) for current and previous financial year
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Central government current receipts

Central government current receipts for current and previous financial year
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Central Government current expenditure

Central Government current expenditure for the current and previous financial years
Source: Office for National Statistics

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The main statistics released show, that in April 2012:

For measures excluding financial interventions:

  • the public sector current budget was in deficit by £12.4 billion; this is a £4.4 billion higher deficit than in April 2011, when there was a deficit of £8.0 billion;

  • public sector net borrowing was -£16.5 billion (a surplus); this is £25.6 billion lower net borrowing than in April 2011, when net borrowing was £9.1 billion;

  • public sector net debt at the end of April 2012 was £1,006.3 billion (64.8 per cent of GDP). This compares with £909.6 billion (60.6 per cent of GDP) at the end of April 2011;

The central government net cash requirement was -£6.9 billion (a surplus), a £14.5 billion lower net cash requirement than in April 2011, when there was a net cash requirement of £7.6 billion.

For measures including interventions:

  • the public sector current budget was in deficit by £10.0 billion; this is a £4.9 billion higher deficit than in April 2011, when there was a deficit of £5.2 billion;

  • public sector net borrowing was -£18.8 billion ( a surplus); this is £25.0 billion lower net borrowing than in April 2011, when net borrowing was £6.2 billion;

  • public sector net debt at the end of April 2012 was £2,293.9 billion (147.7 per cent of GDP). This compares with £2,245.3 billion (149.7 per cent of GDP) as at the end of April 2011.

Recent Events and Methodological Changes

Royal Mail Pension Plan

Following Royal Assent for the Postal Services Act, on 13 June 2011 the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) has moved ahead with the proposed transfer of assets and liabilities from the Royal Mail Pension Plan (RMPP) to a new government run unfunded public sector pension scheme. Under the terms of the Act, the Government assumes both the RMPP pension liabilities, accrued up to March 2012, and the bulk of the RMPPs assets. These transactions took place in April 2012. More information regarding the transfer can be found on the BIS website

The value of the RMPP assets transferred was £28.0 billion and the value of the transferred liabilities was approximately £38 billion. Under National Accounts rules, the pension liabilities of unfunded pension plans, like those for the Civil Service, are contingent liabilities and are therefore not recorded as liabilities in the National Accounts or Public Sector Finances. However, the transfer of the assets provides the government finances with a one off boost in the short term, though government expenditure rises over the longer term as it pays out the pensions to retired Royal Mail workers.

Guidance on how to record the government assumption of pension liabilities in circumstances like this is explicitly set out in the Eurostat Manual on Government Deficit and Debt chapter on "Payments to government from transfer of pension obligations". Following this guidance, the impact of the transfer of assets has been that:

  • Central government net investment for April 2012 has been reduced by the total value of all the assets (i.e. £28bn).

  • Central government net borrowing for April 2012 has been reduced by the total value of all the assets (i.e. £28bn).

  • Central government net cash requirement in April 2012 has been boosted (i.e. reduced) by that element of the total assets that has been realised as cash.

  • Central government net debt at the end of April 2012 has been reduced by the value of the cash realised in April 2012 plus the uplifted nominal value of government bonds (i.e. gilts) previously held by the pension fund and transferred to central government. A total of over £16bn. Net debt is reduced by the cash as this is a liquid asset, whilst the government bonds impact the debt as once they become government assets they are netted off government liabilities.

Other transferred illiquid assets will only impact on net debt and net cash requirement at the point at which they are sold.

Special Liquidity Scheme

The Bank of England Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS) officially closed at the end of January 2012. On closure the accumulated net profits of the scheme were transferred to HM Treasury in April 2012. The net profits amounted to £2.3bn which has been recorded as a capital grant to Central Government from the Bank of England in April. As part of the winding up of the scheme the SLS has reclaimed the corporation tax paid on its operations. This amounted to £0.7bn and was repaid to the Bank by HMRC in March depressing recorded tax receipts in this month.

Housing Revenue Account

In accordance with the Localism Act 2011, which received Royal Assent on 21 November 2011, the Housing Revenue Account (HRA) subsidy system in England was abolished at the end of March 2012 and this has been replaced with local government self-financing for council housing. Details can be found at the Department for Communities and Local Government's website.

The transactions involved in abolishing the HRA subsidy system and replacing it with a self-financing system were large. The transactions took place on 28 March 2012 and broadly fell into four categories:

  • Local authorities paid £13.4 billion to the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG).

  • DCLG paid £5.3 billion mostly to the Public Works Loan Board (PWLB) to discharge local authority debt held by PWLB.

  • DCLG paid a further £1.6 billion to PWLB as payment for the premia on debt discharged early.

  • PWLB loaned £12.9 billion to local authorities at a reduced rate (as pre- announced by the government in September 2011).  

ONS considered the classification for these transactions and concluded that the first two transactions should be recorded as capital transfers; the £13.4 billion a capital transfer from local government to central government, and the £5.3 billion a capital transfer from central government to local government as it represents a debt cancellation. Capital transfers are a component of net investment, and so the net result of these transactions is that Central Government net investment was reduced by £8.1 billion in March 2012 and Local Government net investment was increased by the same £8.1 billion.

The premia paid to PWLB to discharge the debt early is recorded as an interest receipt to central government and a counterparting interest payment from local government. In accordance with National Accounts accrual guidelines, these payments are accrued to the point of payment in March 2012.

These capital transfers and interest payments have an impact on net borrowing, reducing central government net borrowing in March 2012 by £9.7 billion and increasing local government net borrowing by the same amount. Therefore, there is no effect on the overall public sector net borrowing.

The new £12.9 billion PWLB loan to local government has been recorded as an increase in local government debt of £8.0 billion, as £4.9 billion of previous loans were cancelled. The loan has no impact on public sector net borrowing as the loan liability is matched by an equal cash flow.

In cash terms the impact on the central government net cash requirement was to increase it by £6.4 billion in March 2012 as a consequence of paying off the local authority debts. Similarly, the local government net cash requirement was increased by £8.1 billion, which is the net of the two capital transfers.

3G Spectrum Licences

As explained in background note 17, a review was undertaken in 2011 of the correct treatment in National Accounts of government receipts following the sale of licenses in 2000 which granted mobile phone companies exclusive use of parts of the spectrum for third generation mobile phone services. The review concluded that the UK should record these receipts as a sale of an asset rather than as rental payments and this decision has been reflected in this Public Sector Finances bulletin since the February 2012 bulletin.

There has been no impact on public sector net debt from this classification change, but public sector net borrowing has increased by approximately £1 billion for every year since 2000/01, and public sector net borrowing in 2000/01 reduced by approximately £21 billion.

Upcoming Events and Methodological Changes

Accrued Interest on Gilt Coupons

ONS is aware that the current methodology for accruing the cash paid by government for gilt coupons is an overly simplistic one and not fully in line with international National Accounts guidance. ONS and HMT have been working on an improved methodology of accruing these gilt coupon payments. Implementation of the new methodology in Public Sector Finances will have no impact on public sector net debt or net cash requirement but will impact on central government accrued current expenditure and therefore public sector net borrowing. 

Latest estimates are that the impact of the revision will be to increase central government expenditure on accrued interest, and so net borrowing, by approximately £250 million for 2011/12 and 2010/11, £400 million for 2009/10, £500 million for 2008/09 and smaller amounts for previous years. It is planned to implement the methodological change in the Public Sector Finances, June 2012 bulletin.

OSCAR   

HM Treasury is currently replacing its COINS system for financial reporting with a new Online System for Central Accounting and Reporting (OSCAR). This system collects public spending data from central government departments and the devolved administrations. The new system is being used for the first time for the reporting of 2012/13 data, and as with any new database system there is likely to be an initial period after introduction where system/data problems are resolved. This may lead to unusually large revisions in the central government expenditure data reported over the first half of 2012/13.

Blue Book 2012

The Public Sector Finances statistical bulletin published in June 2012 will include some revisions from 2008 to reflect changes due to be published in the 2012 National Accounts Blue Book.

It is anticipated that the main revisions for local authority data will be to interest payments by local authorities and net investment. The revisions to interest payments are due to the implementation of a revised methodology. Local authority net investment will be revised upwards following the inclusion of the expenditure of Cross Rail and Rail for London, and downwards in 2009/10 by the exclusion of Public Finance Initiative (PFI) expenditure by Scottish local authorities, in line with Eurostat guidelines.

Public corporations data will take account of certain reclassifications, with British Energy being scored within the private sector from the beginning of 2009 and LOCOG and East Coast Main Line being scored within the public corporations sector from 2009 onwards. All of Transport Trading Limited will be included for the first time (other than Cross Rail and Rail for London, which are classified within the local authority sector.) These reclassifications coincidentally tend to offset each other and the revisions to public corporations capital expenditure are expected to be relatively small.

There are expected to be no substantive changes to central government data pre-2011/12.

International Comparability

The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union obliges member states to avoid excessive budgetary deficits. The Protocol on the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), annexed to the Maastricht Treaty, defines two criteria and reference values for compliance. These are a deficit to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio of 3 per cent, and a debt to GDP ratio of 60 per cent. EU Member Governments have to report their actual and planned government deficits, and the levels of their debt, to the European Commission, at the end of March and September each year.

The UK publishes a statistical bulletin, at the same time as its data transmission to the European Commission, which provides a summary of the UK general government deficit and debt as defined by the annex to the Maastricht Treaty. The latest bulletin published on 30 March 2012 reports that in 2011 the general government deficit (or net borrowing) was 8.3 per cent of GDP, and at the end of December 2011 the general government gross debt was 82.9 per cent of GDP.

The definition of general government deficit under the Maastricht Treaty has some minor differences to the definition of general government net borrowing published in this Public Sector Finances statistical bulletin. A reconciliation of the two is available within the Government Deficit and Debt under the Maastricht Treaty statistical bulletin.

The definition of debt under the Maastricht Treaty is a different to that used in this Public Sector Finances statistical bulletin. The net debt measure reported in this bulletin (and used by the UK Government for budget and forecast purposes) is calculated as the total stock of financial liabilities minus liquid assets. By contrast, the Maastricht debt is a gross debt measure which is calculated as the stock of financial liabilities. The other major difference in the two debt measures is that the Maastricht debt is limited to general government whereas in the public sector finances the principal debt measure is that for the public sector.

The UK figures may be compared to those of other EU Member States on the Government Finance Statistics section of the Eurostat website. Eurostat published on this website the latest EU and Member State deficit and debt figures on 23 April 2012. A full set of government finance tables provided by the UK to Eurostat as part of the April notification were published on the ONS website on 26 April 2012.

Revisions

Table PSF10R presents the revisions to key aggregates since last month’s publication. The largest revisions normally occur in the month following first release, when estimated and provisional data are replaced with firmer information.

Public sector net borrowing (PSNB ex) for 2011/12 has been revised down by £1.6 billion. This is almost entirely due to a £1.5 billion revision to central government net borrowing.

The downward revision to central government is principally composed of a £1 billion upward revision to central government receipts and a £500 million downward revision to central government expenditure. The receipt revisions mainly relate to income tax and national insurance contributions, whilst the expenditure revisions mainly relate to departmental spending and net social benefits.

Public sector net debt including temporary effects of financial interventions (PSND) as a percentage of GDP has been revised up by 7.3 per cent bringing PSND at the end of March 2012 to 148.1 per cent of GDP. The revision relates to updated data for the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund.

Background notes

  1. Data Quality

    A summary quality report (201.4 Kb Pdf)  for the public sector finances is available on the ONS website. This report describes in detail the intended uses of the statistics presented in this publication, their general quality and the methods used to produce them.

  2. Publication of data for all public sector banking groups and the Bank of England

    Data for the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group were fully incorporated into the public sector finances for the first time in the statistical bulletin published on 25 January 2011. Prior to this data for public sector banking groups related only to Northern Rock plc, Northern Rock (Asset Management) plc, and Bradford and Bingley plc. An article providing commentary on inputs to the public sector banks series, the sources of the data, processing methodologies, and the impacts on key aggregates is available from the ONS website.

    Following the sale of Northern Rock plc to Virgin Money Holdings (UK) Ltd on 1 January 2012, Northern Rock plc has moved out of the public sector. Therefore, Northern Rock plc is no longer included in the data for the public sector banking groups within this bulletin. It should be noted that Northern Rock (Asset Management) plc is still within the public sector and continues to be included within the data of this bulletin. 

  3. The Bank of England is also classified to the public sector.  Data for the Bank have been presented separately in the PSF statistical bulletin (see tables PSF2 and PSF4) commencing with the publication dated 25 January 2011.  The data are ONS estimates derived from the Bank's published accounts.  Prior to the January 2011 publication data for the Bank were included within series for public corporations in the public sector finances. 

  4. Classification issues concerning financial interventions

    There have been numerous financial interventions in recent years. These are described in an article on the ONS website that was published on 6 November 2009.

    The article also explains the classification of the institutions and transactions associated with these measures in the UK's National Accounts and Public Sector Finances. This follows consultation with Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Union, to ensure consistent interpretation of the international guidance.

  5. Impact of financial interventions

    A measure of public sector borrowing that excludes the effect of temporary financial interventions, PSNB ex, was announced in the 2009 Pre Budget Report. The definition of the parallel measure of net debt, PSND ex, was also aligned.  The impact of financial interventions on public sector net borrowing (PSNB) and public sector net debt (PSND) over quarterly periods is summarised in Appendix C data table.   Monthly series for PSNB ex and PSND ex and the public sector current budget on an excluding basis are also provided in this bulletin (see Table PSF1).  As part of the process of full inclusion of data for the public sector banking groups the methodology for accounting for depositor compensation was reassessed in January 2011. The convention on the treatment of the HM Treasury component of the compensation for Bradford and Bingley depositors as discussed on page 3 of the financial interventions article (166.8 Kb Pdf) was changed, so that this compensation no longer adds to PSNDex.

  6. Definitions

    A guide to monthly public sector finance statistics is available on the ONS website. It explains the concepts and measurement of the monthly data, plus those previously published, and gives some long runs of historical data.  The following background notes provide further information regarding the monthly data.

  7. The current budget is defined as net saving plus receipts of capital taxes, using National Accounts concepts as set out in the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA95).  For central government, monthly estimates of the current budget are obtained directly from data on transactions in current receipts and expenditures.  For local government and public corporations, the current budget is obtained by subtracting net borrowing from an estimate of net investment.  Net borrowing is consistent with the definitions in ESA95; procedures for calculating it are discussed in the methodological guide. Net investment is defined as investment less depreciation. Investment is capital formation (acquisition of fixed assets, stocks and valuables net of any sales) plus net payments of capital grants.

  8. Public sector net debt (PSND) is calculated as financial liabilities less liquid assets with both scored at face value.  Liquid assets mainly comprise foreign exchange reserves and bank deposits. Public sector holdings of public sector debt are consolidated out. The public sector net cash requirement is, approximately, the flows equivalent of PSND.

  9. The GDP figure used in the denominator for the calculation of fiscal aggregates as a percentage of GDP is the ‘not seasonally adjusted’ current price version.  For the net debt ratio, the GDP denominator covers the 12 months centred around the observation, e.g. six months before and six months after it. For the current budget and net borrowing financial year ratios, the GDP denominator covers the financial year.  These calculations require estimates or forecasts of GDP to be available for up to six months in the future. This estimation procedure is explained in detail in an article, The use of GDP in fiscal ratio statistics (113 Kb Pdf) , available on the ONS website. As a result of this estimation procedure the debt ratio is provisional when first published and subject to later revision when outturn GDP first becomes available, and again when more refined estimates of GDP are published.

  10. Relevance to users

    The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was established in May 2010, and placed on a permanent, statutory footing in March 2011. As set out in the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011, the OBR has a duty to prepare fiscal and economic forecasts twice each year. The Government has adopted the OBR’s forecasts as official forecasts used to inform policy decisions. The Charter for Budget Responsibility sets out the Government’s intention to continue this practice.

  11. The OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook of 21 March 2012, updated its previous forecasts of November 2011. The latest OBR forecasts (excluding temporary effects of financial sector interventions) for the financial year 2011/12 are:

    • Public sector current budget: a deficit of £98 billion.

    • Public sector net borrowing of £126 billion.

    • Public sector net debt: 67.3 per cent of GDP at end March 2012.

    Similar OBR forecasts (excluding temporary effects of financial sector interventions) for the financial year 2012/13 are:

    • Public sector current budget: a deficit of £95 billion. 

    • Public sector net borrowing of £92 billion.

    • Public sector net debt: 71.9 per cent of GDP at end March 2013.

    The OBR’s Forecast Evaluation Report (13 October 2011) compared OBR’s forecasts for 2010/11 with the provisional outturn figures as published in the Public Sector Finances bulletin of 21 September 2011.

  12. The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) recently conducted an assessment of the Public Sector Finances Statistical Bulletin to ensure that the Bulletin and its compilation methods fully comply with all the requirements of the National Statistics Code of Practice. A report of their findings was published o their website on 3 November.

  13. ONS is grateful to users who provided views on the structure, content and format of this statistical bulletin in a recent survey. A summary of the responses is available on the ONS website.

  14. Coherence

    The Public Sector Finances differ from other National Accounts data in that they have a more flexible revisions policy. This means that the PSF data may be inconsistent with the published GDP data and sector and financial accounts, as a revision may not be incorporated into the main National Accounts data set until a later date due to the more restrictive revisions policy.

  15. General government net borrowing reported in this bulletin forms the basis of the reports of Government Deficit under the Maastricht Treaty. This was most recently reported on in the March 2012 release.

  16. The definition of general government net borrowing to be reported for the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) is different to that used for the National Accounts. A regulation requires that payments on swaps are treated as interest payments; for all other purposes, including the National Accounts and the Public Sector Finances Statistical Bulletin, such payments are shown as financing items, consistent with ESA95.

  17. The definitions of the deficit also previously differed in the treatment of the government’s receipts from the sale of licences which granted mobile phone companies exclusive use of parts of the spectrum for third generation mobile phone services. UK interpretation of ESA95 was to treat these receipts as rental payments for use of an asset. ONS has recently reviewed the UK treatment in the context of the Eurostat decision of 2010 that the government is actually selling an asset and should record the receipts as negative capital in the year of sale. The review decided that it was appropriate for the UK to amend its treatment of the spectrum receipts to align with the international consensus. This decision was implemented initially in the September 2011 report on Government Deficit under the Maastricht Treaty and later in the February 2012 Public Sector Finances bulletin. 

  18. Since April 2011, Eurostat has amended the UK estimates of EDP deficit and debt to reflect an alternative treatment of data for Northern Rock Asset Management plc and Bradford and Bingley plc. ONS classifies these as financial corporations within the public sector, but Eurostat's view is that they are defeasance structures and should be classified to the central government sector. The appropriate classification for these entities is currently under review.

  19. Tax receipts data published in this bulletin are presented in terms of broad tax categories (e.g. Income Tax, VAT). For more detail on individual taxes users can go to the HM Revenue & Customs website and access a monthly publication which provides cash tax receipts data which are entirely consistent with the data published in Table PSF6 of the bulletin.

  20. Data from HM Treasury’s COINS database underlie the Central Government expenditure figures provided in this publication. In June 2010, HM Treasury released into the public domain, as part of the Government transparency agenda, raw data from the COINS database for the years 2005/06 to 2009/10. Subsequently, updated COINS data for 2006/7 to 2009/10 and latest outturn data for 2010/11 were released in September 2011. In-year quarterly COINS data are also published by HM Treasury, with the latest quarterly release made on 21 March 2012. The data are accessible from HM Treasury's website.

  21. The public sector finances bulletin is produced in partnership with HM Treasury (HMT). Further supporting information on public sector finances can be found on HMT's website, and a range of public finance data are available from HMT’s Public Finances Databank.

  22. Accuracy

    Central Government departmental expenditure data are subject to various validation processes and improve over time. They go through four main stages:

    • stage 1 – Initially, they are estimated using in-year reported data

    • stage 2 – In the July following the completion of the financial year the Public Expenditure Outturn White Paper is published, which gives department’s updates of full financial year estimates, but no in-year profile and will be based on audited resource accounts for most departments

    • stage 3 – Following the autumn publication of OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook these financial year estimates are updated

    • stage 4 – In February the following year the Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses National Statistics Outturn updates are published and the financial year estimates are further improved. All departments' and devolved administrations' accounts will have been audited and finalised by this stage

    Data for 2009/10 and 2010/11 are at stage 4.

    Data for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are at stage 1.

    As is usual in May, departments have generally provided restated outturn for the preceding financial year rather than a first outturn for the month of April. As such, the April 2012 figures are for the most part estimated from full year plans, and are likely to be more subject to revision than equivalent data for the remainder of the year.

  23. The local government data for 2009/10 and 2010/11 for local authorities are based on final outturns for receipts and expenditure. Data for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are based on either provisional estimates or forecasts and are subject to revisions when final outturn data become available.

  24. Previously to the bulletin of 24 January 2012, local government net borrowing in the bulletin was derived in two different ways depending on the month to which the net borrowing related. Local government net borrowing for the most recent month (or months) was estimated from information on local government cash deposits and loans. Local government net borrowing for earlier months was calculated from estimates of accrued current expenditure, revenue and net investment in a manner consistent with National Accounts. On occasions, the two methodology approach led to significant revisions (upwards and downwards) in local government data when estimates originally arrived at through financial loans / deposit data were updated quarterly to reflect the latest information on accrued expenditure and revenue.

  25. These revisions in local government data were unhelpful when trying to capture the latest position of public sector borrowing. A development which is expected to reduce the size of these data revisions and improve the reliability of in-year local government data is the new quarterly data being collected by the Department for Communities and Local Government via their Quarterly Revenue Outturn. These data, first collected during 2011/12, provide quarterly updates for the main aspects of local government accrued current expenditure. The Public Sector Finances bulletin has used these data, since January 2012, to estimate the local government net borrowing consistently for all time periods from accrued current expenditure, revenue and net investment data.

  26. Revisions

    Table PSF10R presents the latest revisions to key aggregates. The largest revisions normally occur in the month following the first release, when estimated and provisional data are replaced with firmer information. Currently data for the public sector banking groups are only available for periods up to December 2011. Values for months from January 2012 onwards are imputed ONS estimates. Consequently these, and the aggregates which include the impacts of financial interventions, may be revised substantially when new data become available. 

  27. One indication of the reliability of the key indicators in this bulletin can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. Previously, analyses of revisions to the wider measures of public sector current budget, net borrowing, and net debt that include the impacts of financial interventions were presented in this bulletin. The sizeable revisions resulting from the replacement of imputed data by hard data for the public sector banking groups has meant that these revisions have become more prone to be statistically significant when tested.  Given that the primary focus of users is on the ex-measures, it would be preferable to analyse and present revisions of these in the bulletin. As yet sufficiently long monthly time series are not available for the ex-measures to enable standard revisions analysis to be conducted on them.

  28. As general government net borrowing is quite close in terms of coverage to PSNB ex, it will in the interim be the subject of revisions analysis. The table below shows summary information on the size and direction of revisions from first publication to one year later. The average of five years worth of such revisions is shown; for example – from those first published in March 2006 (for February 2006 to February 2011) first estimates.  Please note that these indicators only report summary measures for revisions, the revised data may still be subject to measurement error.

    Summary table of revision indicators

        Latest monthly  value Revisions between first publication and estimate twelve months later
    Average over the last five  years Average over the last five years (average  absolute revision)
    General Government Net borrowing, £m (-NNBK) -16,582 -708 1,507
           

    Table source: Office for National Statistics

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  29. A statistical test is applied to the average revision to determine whether it is statistically significantly different from zero.  An asterisk (*) is used to indicate if a mean revision has been found to be statistically significant.  A spreadsheet giving these estimates and the calculations behind the averages in the tables is available on the ONS website in the data section for this statistical bulletin.

  30. Publication policy

    Complete runs of series in this Bulletin are available to download free of charge.  Alternatively, for low-cost tailored data call Online Services on 01329 444366 or email statbase@statistics.gov.uk.  Data underlying the graphs in the Statistical Bulletin are available on request.

    An electronic dataset is normally made available one working day after publication of the Public Sector Finances Statistical Bulletin. The dataset contains quarterly data consistent with the latest Public Sector Finances Statistical Bulletin, analysed by economic category and sub-sector. 

  31. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office.

    National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

    You may use or re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk

  32. Special arrangements apply to the Public Sector Finances, which is produced jointly with HM Treasury. A list of ministers and officials with pre-publication access (30.4 Kb Pdf) to the contents of this bulletin is available on request. In addition some members of the Treasury’s Fiscal Statistics and Policy (FSP) team will have access to them at all stages, because they are involved in the compilation or quality assurance of the data, and some members of the Treasury’s Communications team will see the bulletin, but only within the 24 hour pre-release period, because they place the data on the website.

  33. Public sector finances data which supplement and extend the data provided in this bulletin have been available via the ONS Financial Statistics publication. However, publication of the Financial Statistics has ceased, with the last edition published on 12 July 2011.

    Some public sector finance data series previously published in Financial Statistics are not available elsewhere. Data series in this category are found in the Financial Statistics tables 1.1D, 1.2A, 1.3A, 1.3B, 1.3C, 1.3D and 1.4A. Therefore, these tables will continue to be made available for download on the Public Sector Finances web page.

    Tables 1.1D, 1.2A, 1.3A and 1.4A which are updated monthly will continue to be available monthly, published concurrently with the PSF Supplementary data, while Tables 1.3B, 1.3C and 1.3D will be available quarterly.

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  35. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

Statistical contacts

Name Phone Department Email
David Bailey +44 (0)1633 455668 Public Sector Finances psa@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Get all the tables for this publication in the data section of this publication .
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