CPI annual inflation stands at 4.8 per cent in November 2011, down from 5.0 per cent in October. The CPI stands at 121.2 in November 2011 based on 2005=100.
The largest downward pressures to the change in CPI annual inflation between October and November came from food, petrol, clothing and furniture, household equipment & maintenance.
The largest upward pressures to the change in CPI annual inflation between October and November came from domestic heating and off sales of alcohol.
RPI annual inflation stands at 5.2 per cent in November, down from 5.4 per cent in October. The largest downward pressures came from food, petrol, furniture and clothing. Partially offsetting these were upward pressures from wines & spirits off sales and fuel & light. The RPI stands at 238.5 in November 2011 based on January 1987=100.
|Index1 (UK, 2005 = 100)||% change over 1 month||% change over 12 months|
|Food & non-alcoholic beverages||0.6|
|Alcohol & tobacco||0.3|
|Clothing & footwear||1.2|
|Housing & household services||0.4|
|Furniture & household goods||1.0|
|Recreation & culture||-0.2|
|Restaurants & hotels||0.2|
|Miscellaneous goods & service||0.0|
|CPI All Items||0.2|
The most significant upward contributions to the 1-month change in the CPI between October and November 2011 came from:
clothing & footwear: prices, overall, rose by 1.2 per cent between October and November. There were upward effects across a wide range of goods but particularly from garments,
food & non-alcoholic beverages: the largest upward effects came from fruit, where prices rose by 6.4 per cent, and meat, where they rose by 1.6 per cent, a record increase for an October to November period,
furniture, household equipment & maintenance: by far the largest upward effect came from furniture & furnishings where prices rose by 2.0 per cent,
housing & household services: the upward effect came from domestic heating where prices rose by 1.0 per cent, the largest rise for an October to November period since 2006.
The most significant downward contributions to the 1-month change in the CPI between October and November 2011 came from:
transport: prices, overall, decreased by 0.6 per cent. By far the largest downward effect came from a 7.5 per cent fall in air fares,
recreation & culture: prices, overall, fell by 0.2 per cent with the most significant downward effects coming from audio-visual equipment, data processing equipment, gardens, plants & flowers and books.
The most significant downward contributions to the change in the CPI 12-month rate between October and November 2011 came from:
food & non-alcoholic beverages: prices, overall, rose by 0.6 per cent between October and November this year compared with a rise of 1.6 per cent between the same two months a year ago. The 1.6 per cent increase was a record for an October to November period. The lower rise this year reflects the continuance of sales activity from October and the results of a good harvest for some fresh produce. The downward effects came from:
- bread & cereals: prices fell by a near record 1.0 per cent for an October to November period compared with a near record rise of 1.9 per cent a year ago. Last year wheat prices increased as global supply problems boosted demand for British wheat and the UK harvest was smaller than expected,
- sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate & confectionery: prices fell by 0.7 per cent, a record fall for an October to November period, compared with a record rise of 1.9 per cent between the same two months a year ago,
- vegetables: prices fell by 1.0 per cent, the largest fall for an October to November period since 2001 following good harvests for produce such as potatoes and onions. Prices rose by 0.5 per cent between the same two months a year ago.
These effects were partially offset by an upward contribution from meat where prices rose by a record 1.6 per cent for October to November compared with a rise of 1.0 per cent between the same two months a year ago.
transport: prices, overall, fell by 0.6 per cent between October and November this year compared with a fall of 0.1 per cent a year ago. The downward effect was driven by fuels & lubricants reflecting a fall in petrol prices of 1.0 pence per litre between October and November this year compared with a 1.8 pence per litre rise a year ago. This was partially offset by a small upward effect from sea transport where average fares rose this year but fell a year ago,
clothing & footwear: prices, overall, rose by 1.2 per cent between October and November this year compared with a rise of 2.0 per cent between the same two months a year ago. The largest downward effects came from men's and women's outerwear,
furniture, household equipment & maintenance: prices, overall, rose by 1.0 per cent between October and November this year compared with a record rise for October to November of 1.6 per cent a year ago. The main downward effect came from furniture & furnishings and this was partially offset by upward effects from glassware, tableware & household utensils and non-durable household goods.
The most significant upward contribution to the change in the CPI 12-month rate between October and November 2011 came from:
alcoholic beverages & tobacco: prices, overall, rose by 0.3 per cent this year, a record rise for an October to November period, compared with a fall of 0.3 per cent between the same two months a year ago. The effect was driven by wine (particularly red wine) when prices rose by 0.7 per cent when they usually fall between October and November, in the case of 2010 by a record 2.7 per cent.
|Food & non-alcoholic beverages||4.0|
|Alcohol & tobacco||9.7|
|Clothing & footwear||2.8|
|Housing & household services||9.2|
|Furniture & household goods||5.0|
|Recreation & culture||-0.5|
|Restaurants & hotels||4.6|
|Miscellaneous goods & services||2.8|
|CPI All Items||4.8|
housing & household services which contributed 1.2 percentage points with the main upward effects coming from gas and electricity where charges, overall, rose by 25.3 per cent and 15.5 per cent respectively over the 12 months to November,
transport which contributed 1.1 percentage points. The largest effects came from fuel & lubricants where prices, overall, rose by 13.1 per cent over the 12 months to November and air transport where fares rose by 6.3 per cent over the same period,
restaurants & hotels which contributed 0.5 percentage points. Here, restaurant & cafe prices, overall, rose by 4.9 per cent over the year,
food & non-alcoholic beverages which also contributed 0.5 percentage points with prices, overall, rising by 4.0 per cent over the year. The upward contributions were widespread with almost all categories having upward effects: the largest came from meat where prices rose by 6.4 per cent over the 12 months to November; sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate & confectionery where there was a 5.6 per cent rise; bread & cereals with a 3.1 per cent rise; and mineral waters, soft drinks & juices where prices rose by 4.6 per cent.
The CPIY is the same as the all items CPI except that it excludes price changes which are directly due to changes in indirect taxation (such as VAT).
In the year to November, the CPIY rose by 3.4 per cent, down from 3.5 per cent in October. Therefore the CPIY 12-month rate fell by 0.1 percentage points between October and November compared with a decrease of 0.2 percentage points in the CPI 12-month rate between the same two months. The impact of rounding is the main reason for the small difference in the changes in the CPIY and CPI 12-month rates between October and November. However, the increase in air passenger duty that came into effect in November 2010, which impacts on the CPI (but not the CPIY) 12-month rate comparison this month, also contributed.
The CPI-CT is the same as the CPI except that tax rates are kept constant at the rates they were in the base period (currently January 2011).
In the year to November, CPI-CT rose by 3.2 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent in October. The CPI-CT and CPI 12-month rates have therefore both decreased by 0.2 percentage points between October and November. The increase in air passenger duty that came into effect in November 2010, which impacts on the CPI (but not the CPI-CT) 12-month rate comparison this month, was not sufficient to cause a divergence between the change in the CPIY and CPI 12-month rates between October and November.
In the year to November the all items RPI rose by 5.2 per cent, down from 5.4 per cent in October. The RPI and CPI 12-month rates have therefore both decreased by 0.2 percentage points between October and November. Even at the more detailed level the differences in the contributions to the change in the RPI and CPI 12-month rates are relatively small. The largest are:
petrol & oil: has a higher weight in the RPI than the CPI so the downward effect from this component had a larger impact on the RPI,
sea transport: has a much lower weight in the RPI than the CPI so the upward effect from this component had a smaller impact on the RPI,
new cars: the different methods used to measure the price of new cars in the CPI and RPI resulted in an upward contribution to the RPI but a downward contribution to the CPI,
house depreciation: has an upward impact on the RPI but is excluded from the CPI.
The RPIX is the same as the all items RPI except for mortgage interest payments, which is excluded from RPIX.
In the year to November, the RPIX rose by 5.3 per cent, down from 5.6 per cent in October. Therefore the RPIX 12-month rate fell by 0.3 percentage points between October and November compared with a decrease of 0.2 percentage points in the RPI 12-month rate between the same two months.
Mortgage interest payments had a small upward effect on the change in the RPI 12-month rate between October and November. This and the impact of rounding are the reasons for the small difference in the change in the RPIX and RPI 12-month rates between those months.
The RPIY is the same as the all items RPI except that it excludes price changes which are directly due to changes in indirect taxation (such as VAT) and mortgage interest payments.
In the year to November, the RPIY rose by 4.1 per cent, down from 4.3 per cent in October. Therefore the RPIY and RPI 12-month rates both fell by 0.2 percentage points between October and November. Although the overall changes in the 12-month rates at the all items level were the same, there were offsetting effects at the more detailed level. The largest were:
the increase in air passenger duty that came into effect in November 2010 had a downward impact on the RPI (but not the RPIY) 12-month rate this month,
mortgage interest payments had a small upward effect on the RPI but are excluded from the RPIY,
food has a higher weight in the RPIY compared with the RPI so the downward effect from this component had a larger impact on the RPIY.
|All items CPI||Annual rate +4.8%, down from +5.0% last month|
|Lowest since August 2011 (+4.5%)|
|Food & non-alcoholic||Annual rate +4.0%, down from +5.0% last month|
|beverages||Lowest since July 2010 (+3.4%)|
|Housing & household services||Annual rate +9.2%, up from +9.1% last month|
|Highest since February 2009 (+10.0%)|
|Annual rate +5.2%, down from +5.4% last month|
|All items RPI||Also +5.2% in August 2011|
|Last lower in July 2011 (+5.0%)|
|Annual rate +5.3%, down from +5.6% last month|
|All items RPI exc MIPS (RPIX)||Also +5.3% in August 2011|
|Last lower in July 2011 (+5.0%)|
|Fuel & light||Annual rate +21.1%, up from +20.2% last month|
|Highest since February 2009 (+22.3%)|
|Motoring expenditure||Annual rate +7.2%, down from +7.7% last month|
|Lowest since October 2009 (+5.3%)|
|Annual rate +5.8%, up from +5.7% last month|
|All services||Also +5.8% in September 2011|
|Last higher in February 2009 (+6.0%)|
CPI and RPI detailed Reference Tables (1.16 Mb Excel sheet) is a printer friendly multi-worksheet Excel spreadsheet, that pulls together the numerous tables that were published in the old style Consumer Price Indices Statistical Bulletin and Focus on Consumer Prices publication before the introduction of the new website on 27 August 2011. The 'Contents' page provides guidance on those data sets which are included, along with a correlation index showing old and new naming conventions and previous publication source(s), for example: RPI All items 1947-2011 or RP02 & Table 4.1 in Focus is now the new Table 20.
Following user feedback, detailed tables 1 to 4 have been reattached to the pdf version of the Statistical Bulletin and a further table (a breakdown of the RPI) added.
New ONS website
The most efficient way to access the latest CPI and RPI data and briefing on the new website is via the CPI or RPI key figures on the homepage.
In response to user feedback, we have taken the opportunity to make all CPI and RPI data available in one location. These data are provided via a 'printer friendly' Excel file (1.16 Mb Excel sheet) . (1.16 Mb Excel sheet)
To further help users, very detailed CPI data are now available including the individual price quotes and item indices that underpin the CPI. Please note that the data that are published are at a level which means that no individual retailer or service provider will be able to be identified. Previously the data published covered January 1996 to March 2011. The data for April to September 2011 are also now available. Going forward, these data will be updated once a quarter with around a three month lag compared with the latest CPI publication, for example, the data will next be updated when the February CPI is published on 20 March 2012, at which point the detailed data published will be extended to December 2011.
Also following user feedback, detailed tables 1 to 4 have been reattached to the pdf version of the Statistical Bulletin and a further table (a breakdown of the RPI) added.
Further information on the CPI and RPI, including details of the methodology used to construct the indices, articles, historic data etc, is available on the Consumer Price Index web page.
Measurement of cars within the CPI and RPI
The UK Statistics Authority, in September 2011, endorsed proposals from the Consumer Prices Advisory Committee (CPAC) relating to the measurement methods used for cars within the CPI and RPI. CPAC recommended that car prices in the CPI and RPI should be measured via transaction prices from car dealer websites instead of the current approach of using ‘list’ prices. CPAC also recommended that the same improved method should be used for both the CPI and RPI (currently two different methods are used).
The Authority plans to reach a final decision in January 2012 following public consultation which is underway, closing on 23 December 2011. The Office for National Statistics currently plans to introduce this change from the February 2012 CPI and RPI, published on 20 March 2012.
New this month
Quality & Methodology Information Report
Quality & Methodology Information Reports pull together qualitative information on the six Eurostat criteria of quality (relevance, accuracy, timeliness & punctuality, accessibility & clarity, comparability and coherence). The report for the CPI and RPI has been updated.
Inflation for December 2010 to December 2011 will be published on 17 January 2012. CPI and RPI inflation rates between December 2010 and November 2011 were 3.7 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively. Inflation rates for December 2010 to December 2011 will take account of price changes between November 2011 and December 2011.
The CPI is the main UK domestic measure of consumer price inflation for macroeconomic purposes. It forms the basis for the Government’s target for inflation that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is required to achieve. From April 2011 the CPI is also being used for the indexation of benefits, tax credits and public service pensions. The uprating is based on the 12-month change in the September CPI.
Internationally, the CPI is known as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). HICPs are calculated in each Member State of the European Union, according to rules specified in a series of European regulations developed by Eurostat in conjunction with the EU Member States. HICPs are used to compare inflation rates across the European Union. Since January 1999, the HICP has also been used by the European Central Bank (ECB) as the measure of price stability across the euro area.
The CPI and the RPI are compiled using the same underlying price data, based on a large and representative selection of around 650 individual goods and services for which price movements are measured in around 150 randomly selected areas throughout the UK. Around 180,000 separate price quotations are used every month to compile the indices. The outlets in which the prices are collected are selected randomly. Expenditure weights are held constant for one year at a time.
The selection of goods and services that are priced to compile the CPI and RPI is reviewed annually. The contents of the 2011 basket are in a list on the ONS website (265 Kb Pdf) . The expenditure weights used to compile the indices are also updated each year. Additional details of the updated CPI and RPI weights for 2011 are available from the ONS website in an article published on 19 April 2011 entitled Consumer Prices Index and Retail Prices Index: Updating Weights for 2011 (301.5 Kb Pdf) .
Rates of change for the CPI are calculated from unrounded index levels, rather than from the published indices, which are rounded to one decimal place. The use of unrounded indices increases the accuracy of the calculation. The unrounded index levels are available on request. By contrast, rates of change for the RPI are calculated from the published rounded indices.
Once the RPI indices are published they are never revised. CPI indices are revisable although the only time the CPI all items index has been revised was when the index was re-referenced to 2005=100, which took place with the publication of the January 2006 indices.
The CPI’s coverage of goods and services was extended in stages in the areas of health, education, childcare and insurance, with effect from the January 2000, 2001, and 2002 indices. In 2000, there was also a change to the population basis for the weights which was broadened from private households to include expenditure by foreign visitors and residents of institutional households.
The official CPI series starts in 1996 but estimates for earlier periods are available back to 1988. These estimates are broadly consistent with data from 1996 but should be treated with some caution.
RPI data are available back to 1947 but have been re-referenced on several occasions since then, generally accompanied by changes to the coverage and/or structure of the detailed sub-components. Details of these changes are given in Appendices 1 and 2 of the CPI Technical Manual (754.3 Kb Pdf) .
Detailed explanations on the main uses and methodology used to construct the ‘other measures of inflation’ included within this statistical bulletin and how they differ from the CPI can be found in Chapter 10 of the
CPI Technical Manual (754.3 Kb Pdf)
All items Retail Prices Index (RPI): the RPI is the most long-standing general purpose measure of inflation in the UK. Historically the uses of the RPI include the indexation of various prices and incomes and the uprating of pensions, state benefits and index-linked gilts, as well as the revalorisation of excise duties. Please note, though, that from April 2011 the CPI is being used to uprate benefits, tax credits and public service pensions.
The main differences between the CPI and RPI are:
population base: CPI includes all UK private and institutional households and foreign visitors to the UK. The RPI includes private households only and excludes the highest income households and pensioner households mainly dependent on state benefits; these excluded private households account for around 13 per cent of all UK household expenditure
item coverage: the most significant difference is that the CPI excludes a number of items relating to housing costs (such as mortgage interest payments, house depreciation and council tax) that are included in the RPI
index methodology – formula: the CPI mainly uses the geometric mean whereas the RPI uses the arithmetic mean to combine individual prices at the first stage of aggregation
item coding: the CPI uses a standard international classification system whereas the RPI uses a system unique to itself and not used elsewhere. The different approaches reflect the fact that the CPI is used to compare inflation rates across Europe so a standard framework is required; the RPI is mainly used within the UK only
Here is a breakdown of the differences between the CPI and RPI (62.9 Kb Pdf) annual inflation rates.
Also available is an explanation on the increased impact that the different formula used to construct the CPI and RPI (61 Kb Pdf) had on the indices during 2010:
All items Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX): this index is the same as the all items RPI but it excludes the mortgage interest payments component
All items Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments and indirect taxes (RPIY): is an index designed to measure movements in ‘core’ prices as the index excludes price changes which are directly due to changes in indirect taxation (for example VAT; excise duties on tobacco, alcohol and petrol; local authority taxation; and vehicle excise duties) and mortgage interest payments. The purpose of the index is to obtain a better indication of inflationary pressures at times when prices are directly influenced by Government-driven changes
Consumer Prices Index excluding indirect taxes (CPIY): is an index designed to measure movements in ‘underlying prices’ as it excludes price changes which are directly due to changes in indirect taxation (for example VAT, excise duties on tobacco, alcohol and petrol). As with the RPIY, its main purpose is to obtain a better indication of inflationary pressures at times when prices are directly influenced by Government-driven changes
Consumer Prices Index at constant tax rates (CPI-CT): is an index where tax rates are kept constant at the rates as they were in the base period (currently January 2011). The analytical value of the CPI-CT is when it is compared with the CPI; differences in the monthly and annual rates of change between the two indices provide an indication of the impact of tax changes on the CPI
This bulletin includes the November 2011 data, collected on 15 November 2011. Publication dates can be found on the ONS website (42.2 Kb Pdf) . The European Commission (Eurostat) will release figures for the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) for the month of November 2011 for EU Member States, together with an EU average, on 14 December 2011. Further information on HICP for the European Union, Eurozone and other EU Member States is available from Eurostat's HICP web page.
A more detailed quality report for this statistical bulletin is available on the ONS website. The report assesses the CPI and RPI against standard dimensions of quality such as relevance, accuracy and accessibility. The report was last updated in December 2011.
The mini Triennial Review (344.9 Kb Pdf) of the CPI and RPI Central Collection of Prices is also available.
A full description of how the CPI and RPI are compiled is given in the Consumer Price Indices Technical Manual (754.3 Kb Pdf) .
Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office. Also available is a list of the names of those given pre-publication access (81.4 Kb Pdf) to the contents of this release.
In line with the Consumer Price Indices Pre-Release arrangements, an advanced estimate of the CPI was provided to the Governor of the Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer 3.5 working days ahead of publication. The Governor shared this information with the MPC, and officials present at the MPC policy meeting, on Wednesday 7 December.
The National Statistician, Jil Matheson, has announced that the House Price Index currently produced by the Department for Communities and Local Government (and used in the production of the RPI) will transfer to ONS. The transfer is expected to be completed by April 2012. Further details are available on the ONS website.
National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
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17 January 2012
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