Statistical bulletin: UK Trade, May 2012

May 2012

• The UK’s deficit on seasonally adjusted trade in goods and services was £2.7 billion in May, compared with a deficit of £4.1 billion in April.
• The deficit on seasonally adjusted trade in goods was £8.4 billion in May, compared with a deficit of £9.7 billion in April.
• The surplus on seasonally adjusted trade in services was estimated at £5.6 billion in May, unchanged when compared with April 2012.
• Excluding oil and erratic items, the seasonally adjusted volume of exports was 6.6 per cent higher, and the volume of imports was 1.0 per cent higher in May compared with April.
• As ONS previously announced in its statement on 3 July 2012, exports and imports price indices data are not available in this month's UK Trade publication. The statement detailing the omission of these data can be found on the ONS website.

Key figures

Balance of UK Trade in goods and services, May 2012

 

Balance of UK Trade, May 2012

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Balance of UK Trade in goods, May 2012

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Supplementary analysis page

The UK’s deficit in Trade in Goods and Services narrowed by £1.4 billion to £2.7 billion in May, compared with April.

The UK’s surplus in Trade in Services was estimated at £5.6 billion in May, virtually unchanged compared with April. Exports of services rose by less than £0.1 billion (0.2 per cent) to £15.5 billion and imports of services remained unchanged at £9.9 billion.

The UK’s deficit in Trade in Goods narrowed by £1.3 billion to £8.4 billion in May compared with April. Exports of goods increased by £1.9 billion (7.8 per cent), from £23.8 billion in April to £25.7 billion in May. Imports of goods increased by £0.5 billion (1.5 per cent), from £33.5 billion in April to £34.0 billion in May.

EU

The deficit in trade in goods with EU countries narrowed by £0.1 billion to £4.5 billion in May, compared with a deficit of £4.6 billion in April, as exports increased by £0.6 billion (4.7 per cent) to £12.5 billion and imports increased by £0.5 billion (2.9 per cent) to £17.0 billion.

Non-EU

The deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries decreased by £1.3 billion to £3.9 billion in May, compared with a deficit of £5.1 billion in April, as exports increased by £1.3 billion (10.9 per cent) to £13.2 billion and imports increased by less than £0.1 billion (0.2 per cent) to £17.0 billion.

Exports

The increase in total exports of goods was driven by higher exports of the following commodities:

• Cars (up £0.5 billion), particularly to non-EU countries including China, USA and Russia.
• Oil (up £0.3 billion), particularly to non-EU countries including the USA.
• Chemicals (up £0.3 billion), particularly to EU countries including Germany and France.
• Aircraft (up £0.2 billion), particularly to non-EU countries.

Imports

The increase in total imports of goods was driven by higher imports of the following commodities:

• Oil (up £0.3 billion), particularly from EU countries including the Netherlands and Sweden.
• Intermediate goods (up £0.3 billion) particularly from non-EU countries.

This was partially offset by a fall in imports of the following commodities:

• Chemicals (down £0.2 billion), from both EU and non-EU countries.
• Aircraft (down £0.2 billion), from both EU and non-EU countries.

Volumes

The volume of exports of goods (excluding oil and erratics) increased by 6.6 per cent, driven by an increase in export volumes of cars (up 34.2 per cent), chemicals (up 6.0 per cent) and food, drink & tobacco (up 5.6 per cent).

The volume of imports of goods (excluding oil and erratics) increased by 1.0 per cent, driven by an increase in import volumes of intermediate goods (up 5.0 per cent), food, drink & tobacco (up 4.1 per cent) and consumer goods other than cars (up 1.9 per cent).

Note:

Care should be taken when using the month-on-month growth rates due to their volatility.

Value of UK trade in goods (seasonally adjusted)

In May, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods was £8.4 billion, compared with a deficit of £9.7 billion in April.

Total exports rose by £1.9 billion (7.8 per cent) to £25.7 billion and total imports rose by £0.5 billion (1.5 per cent) to £34.0 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value, May 2012 compared with April 2012

In the three months ending May 2012, the deficit on trade in goods increased by £2.7 billion to £26.6 billion, compared with a deficit of £23.9 billion in the three months ending February 2012.

Total exports fell by £0.4 billion (0.5 per cent) to £75.9 billion, but total imports rose by £2.4 billion (2.4 per cent) to £102.5 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value, March - May 2012 compared with December 2011 - February 2012

Value of UK Trade in goods, May 2012

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Value of UK Trade in goods excluding oil, May 2012

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Trade in goods - EU analysis (seasonally adjusted)

In May, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries decreased by less than £0.1 billion to £4.5 billion, compared with a deficit of £4.6 billion in April.

EU exports rose by £0.6 billion (4.7 per cent) to £12.5 billion, and EU imports rose by £0.5 billion (2.9 per cent) to £17.0 billion. At the commodity level:

Trade in goods, EU analysis (seasonally adjusted), May 2012 compared with April 2012

In the three months ending May 2012, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries widened by £1.9 billion to £13.6 billion, compared with a deficit of £11.7 billion in the three months ending February 2012.

EU exports fell by £1.6 billion (4.1 per cent) to £37.7 billion, but EU imports rose by £0.3 billion (0.5 per cent) to £51.2 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (EU), March - May 2012 compared with December 2011 - February 2012

Balance of Trade in goods EU countries, May 2012

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Trade in goods - non-EU analysis (seasonally adjusted)

In May, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries decreased by £1.3 billion to £3.9 billion, compared with a deficit of £5.1 billion in April.

Non-EU exports rose by £1.3 billion (10.9 per cent) to £13.2 billion, and non-EU imports rose by less than £0.1 billion (0.2 per cent) to £17.0 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (non-EU), May 2012 compared with April 2012

In the three months ending May 2012, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries increased by £0.9 billion to £13.1 billion, compared with a deficit of £12.2 billion in the three months ending February 2012.

Non-EU exports rose by £1.2 billion (3.4 per cent) to £38.2 billion and non-EU imports rose by £2.1 billion (4.3 per cent) to £51.3 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (non-EU), March - May 2012 compared with December 2011 - February 2012

Balance of Trade in goods non-EU countries, May 2012

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Trade in goods - one month geographical analysis (seasonally adjusted)

May 2012 compared with April 2012

Within EU countries, exports to both Germany and the Netherlands rose by £0.1 billion. Among Non-EU countries, exports to China rose by £0.3 billion and to the USA by £0.2 billion.

Within EU countries, imports from the Netherlands rose by £0.2 billion. Among Non-EU countries, imports from South Africa rose by £0.2 billion and imports from China and Japan rose by £0.1 billion. Imports from Norway fell by £0.1 billion.

Change in 1 monthly trade with significant partner countries, May 2012 compared with April 2012

Table notes:

1. Significant trading partners defined as top 10 export markets & import sources 2011 (see Monthly Review of External Trade table G1).

Significant partner country 1 month balances, May 2012

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Trade in goods – three month geographical analysis (seasonally adjusted)

Three months ending May 2012 compared with the three months ending February 2012

Within EU countries, exports to the Netherlands fell by £0.8 billion. Among Non-EU countries, exports to the USA rose by £0.4 billion.

Within EU countries, there were no import movements in excess of £0.3 billion. Among Non-EU countries, there were also no import movements in excess of £0.3 billion.

Change in 3 monthly trade with significant partner countries, March - May 2012 compared with December 2011 - February 2012

Table notes:

1. Significant trading partners defined as top 10 export markets & import sources 2010 (see Monthly Review of External Trade table G1).

 

Significant partner country 3 month balances, March - May 2012

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Volume of total trade in goods, excluding oil and erratics (seasonally adjusted)

In May, the volume of exports rose by 6.6 per cent and the volume of imports rose by 1.0 per cent, compared with April. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity volume, May 2012 compared with April 2012

In the three months ending May 2012, the volume of exports rose by 1.0 per cent, but the volume of imports rose by 0.1 per cent, compared with the three months ending February 2012.  At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity volume, March - May 2012 compared with December 2011 - February 2012

Volume of exports of goods (finished manufactures) three months, May 2012

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Volume of imports of goods (finished manufactures) three months, May 2012

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Export and import prices for trade in goods (not seasonally adjusted)

As ONS previously announced in its statement on 3 July 2012, exports and imports price indices data are not available in this month's UK Trade publication. The statement detailing the omission of these data can be found on the ONS website.

Trade in oil (seasonally adjusted)

In May, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £1.1 billion, compared with a deficit of £1.2 billion in April. Oil exports rose by £0.3 billion to £3.6 billion and oil imports rose by £0.3 billion to £4.7 billion.

In the three months ending May 2012, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £3.6 billion, compared with a deficit of £2.1 billion in the three months ending February 2012. Oil exports fell by £0.3 billion to £10.4 billion and oil imports rose by £1.2 billion to £14.0 billion.

Balance on Trade in oil, May 2012

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Trade in services (seasonally adjusted)

In May, the UK’s estimated surplus on trade in services was unchanged at £5.6 billion, compared with April 2012.

Exports and imports were also unchanged in May when compared with April, with exports at £15.5 billion and imports at £9.9 billion.

In the three months ending May 2012, the estimated surplus on trade in services decreased by £0.7 billion to £16.9 billion, compared with a surplus of £17.7 billion in the three months ending February 2012.

Total exports fell by £0.8 billion (1.7 per cent) to £46.3 billion and total imports were virtually unchanged at £29.4 billion.

Value of UK Trade in services, May 2012

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Records sheet

The UK Trade record information for May 2012 can be accessed on the ONS website.

Background notes

1. What's new?

   Blue Book 2012

   The estimates in this statistical bulletin are consistent with this year’s Blue Book, to be published on 31 July 2012. An article describing the content of Blue Book 2012 is available on the ONS website. The base year and reference year for chained volume estimates have both moved on from 2008 to 2009.

   The estimates included in this release are also consistent with Quarterly National Accounts published on 28 June 2012. This article looks at the impact of changes in the National Accounts and economic commentary for 2012 quarter 1.

2. UK Trade designated as National Statistics

   The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

   Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

   • meet identified user needs;

   • are well explained and readily accessible;

   • are produced according to sound methods, and

   • are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest.

   Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.

3. Special Events

   An article outlining the ONS policy on special events can be found on the ONS website.

4. Code of Practice for Official Statistics 

   National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

5. Understanding the data

   Short Guide to UK Trade

   Ever since statistics on exports and imports of goods were first collected in 1697 UK trade has been one of the country’s key economic indicators.

   All information included in the monthly UK Trade Statistical Bulletin is on a Balance of Payments (BoP) basis and is seasonally adjusted. The release contains tables showing the total value of trade in goods together with index numbers of volume and price, figures analysed by broad commodity group (values and indices) and according to geographical area (values only). In addition the Trade statistical bulletin also includes early monthly estimates of the value of trade in services.

   Data appearing in the UK Trade statistical bulletin are also used as a direct input into the quarterly Balance of Payments and National Accounts.

   Interpreting the data

   Monthly commodity movements for Food, beverages and tobacco, Basic materials, Fuels other than oil, and Erratics (Ships, Aircraft, Precious stones, and Silver) are only detailed in this Statistical Bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £200 million (£400 million for three monthly comparisons).

   Monthly country movements are only detailed in this Statistical Bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £0.1 billion (£0.3 billion for three monthly comparisons).

   In months where quarterly and three monthly ending percentage changes for index data coincide there may be small differences between the data for methodological reasons. Quarterly data are the indexed form of an underlying constant price (for volume indices) or consistent quantity (for price indices) series. Three month ending data are the average of the index data in that period.

   VAT Missing Trader Intra Community (MTIC) fraud

   Import figures for trade in goods include adjustments to allow for the impact of VAT MTIC fraud.

   The adjustments to trade in goods relate only to part of the carousel version of VAT MTIC fraud. This fraud leads to under recording of imports as fraudsters import goods from the EU, which they then sell on before disappearing without paying VAT on that sale. The goods are eventually exported. Such exports are declared and are therefore already reflected in the UK’s trade in goods statistics.

   Changes to the pattern of trading associated with MTIC fraud can make it difficult to analyse trade by commodity group and by country as changes in the impact of activity associated with this fraud affect both imports and exports. However, the MTIC trade adjustments are added to the EU import estimates derived from Intrastat returns as it is this part of the trading chain that is not generally recorded. In particular, adjustments affect trade in capital goods and intermediate goods - these categories include mobile phones and computer components, which are still the most widely affected goods.

   International convention determines that the treatment of the impact is to adjust imports upwards by the relevant amounts of missing declarations (non-response). However, users may wish to interpret short term movements in imports excluding that part of the fraudulent activity that is not included in the import estimates, and for this purpose an analysis of the import figures with the VAT MTIC adjustments excluded is shown in Table 13.

   Definitions and explanations

   A glossary of terms is published in the UK Balance of Payments Pink Book.

   Use of the data

   UK Trade is a key economic indicator due to the importance of international trade to the UK economy. It is also a very timely statistic, providing an early indicator of what is happening more generally in the economy.

   In addition, it is a major component of two other key economic statistics – UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the UK Balance of Payments. This means that there is a threefold potential for UK Trade statistics to inform the Government’s view of the UK economy, as well as the views of others, such as economists, City analysts, academics, the media, and international organisations.

   Notes on tables – rounding:

   The sum of constituent items in tables do not always agree exactly with the totals shown due to rounding.

   Symbols

   ..    Not applicable

   -     Nil or less than half the final digit shown.

6. Methods

   Composition of the data

   Detailed methodological notes are published in the UK Balance of Payments (Pink Book).

   Seasonal adjustment

   Seasonal adjustment aims to remove effects associated with the time of the year or the arrangement of the calendar so that movements within a time series may be more easily interpreted.

   Deflation

   It is common for the value of a group of financial transactions to be measured in several time periods. The values measured will include both the change in the volume sold and the effect of the change of prices over that year. Deflation is the process whereby the effect of price change is removed from a set of values.Chain-linked indices (chained volume measures) which are indexed to form the volume series in this bulletin differ from fixed base indices in that the growth from one year to the next is estimated by weighting the components using the contribution to value of trade in the immediately preceding year (effectively re-basing every year). This series of annually re-weighted annual growths is then ‘chain-linked’ to produce a continuous series.

   The implied price deflators derived by comparing current price data to chained volume measures data are not the same as the price indices published in this statistical bulletin because the former are current weighted while the latter are base (2008) weighted.

   Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution. 

   A paper, Statistics on Trade in Goods (384.4 Kb Pdf) (GSS Methodological Series No. 36) describing the adjustments that need to be applied to conform to IMF definitions for Balance of Payments and the division of responsibility between ONS and HMRC is available on the ONS website.

   The Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS) data used as inputs to this statistical bulletin are collected and published by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) on an International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) basis.

7. Quality 

   Basic quality information

   Accuracy: Trade in goods figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in the light of (a) late trader data, revisions to trade prices and revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, and (b) revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month.

   Trade in services estimates have been derived from a number of monthly and quarterly sources. For components where no monthly data are available, estimates have been derived on the basis of recent trends. The results should be used with appropriate caution, as they are therefore likely to be less reliable than those for trade in goods. More details of the data sources, estimation methodology and reliability of the monthly estimates of trade in services were set out in Economic Trends (January 1996 and September 1997).

   Reliability: Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. The table below shows summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to the data covering a five year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows that the test is significant. An article explaining the past revisions performance for UK Trade statistics and what is being done to improve the first published estimates was published on 9 May 2005 on the ONS website.

   Revisions analysis UK Trade, May 2012

   £ million

   		Revisions between first publication and estimates twelve months later
   	Value in latest period	Average over the last 5 years (mean revision)	Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
   Total trade exports (IKBH)	41,188	755	1,011
   Total trade imports (IKBI)	43,905	406	763
   Total trade balance (IKBJ)	-2,717	357	602

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   The table covers estimates of UK trade first published from July 2006 (for May 2006) to June 2011 (for April 2011). Spreadsheets giving these estimates and the calculations behind the averages in the table are available on the ONS website.

   An article analysing past revisions to quarterly balance of payments current account data was published in the May 2007 edition of Economic & Labour Market Review (340.2 Kb Pdf) .

   More information about revisions material in this Statistical Bulletin can be found on the ONS website.

8. Coherence - EU enlargement and country coverage: Two more countries joined the EU from 1 January 2007. These countries were Bulgaria and Romania. In addition, the coverage of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries was extended to include Slovenia. In order to enable users to make long-run comparisons, data for the new definition EU and non-EU was produced from January 1998 onwards for value, and from January 1999 onwards for volume and price indices. At the same time data for the old definitions were no longer maintained. There are additional series for country groupings on the old definitions.

   The coverage of EMU countries was extended to cover Cyprus and Malta from July 2008, Slovakia from January 2009, and Estonia from January 2011. Some EU and non-EU breakdowns of commodity data for Chained Volume Measures which are available from the Statbase® service may be less reliable than the current price data. Please consult Stephen Curtos on 01633 456626 if you are considering using them.

   Data have been combined for the United States and Puerto Rico, and for Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah (the United Arab Emirates) from January 2009 onwards. Estimates are separately available for the United States and Dubai up until the end of 2008 on request.

9. Summary quality report

   A Summary Quality Report (91.3 Kb Pdf) for this Statistical Bulletin and associated data can be found on the ONS website.

10. National Accounts revisions policy

    National Accounts revision policy (67.8 Kb Pdf) can be found on the ONS website.

11. Revisions

    Revisions Table 14R shows revisions to the main aggregates since the last Trade Statistical Bulletin of 15 June 2012. The revisions to trade in goods from April 2012 reflect revised data from Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs and other data suppliers, revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, later survey data on trade prices and a re-assessment of seasonal factors.

    The revisions from January 1997, bring the data in-line with the Quarterly National Accounts (1st Quarter 2012) published on 28 June 2012 Blue Book.

12. Publication policy

    Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office. Also available is a list of the organisations given pre-publication access (28 Kb Pdf) to the contents of this bulletin.

13. Accessing data

    Supplementary commodity data for this Statistical Bulletin (Monthly Review of External Trade Statistics); and quarterly data analysed by industry according to the Standard Industrial Classification (UK Trade in Goods Analysed in Terms of Industries) are also available free of charge as PDF files on the ONS website.

    The complete run of data in the tables of this Statistical Bulletin are also available to view and download in other electronic formats free of charge using the ONS Time Series Data website service. Users can download the complete Statistical Bulletin in a choice of zipped formats, or view and download their own selections of individual series. The Time Series Data service can be accessed on the ONS website.

14. Follow ONS on Twitter and receive up to date information about our statistical releases. Like ONS on Facebook to receive our updates in your newsfeed and to post comments on our page. Watch our videos at YouTube.
    
    

15. Copyright and reproduction

    © Crown copyright 2012

    Under the terms of the Open Government Licence and UK Government Licensing Framework, anyone wishing to use or re-use ONS material, whether commercially or privately, may do so freely without a specific application for a licence, subject to the conditions of the OGL and the Framework.

    For further information, contact the Office of Public Sector Information, Crown Copyright Licensing and Public Sector Information, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 4DU.

    Tel: +44 (0)20 8876 3444

    Email psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk

16. Next publication: 8 August 2012

    Issued by: Office for National Statistics, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport NP10 8XG

    Media contact:
    Luke Croydon 0845 6041858
    Emergency on-call 07867 906553
    Email  media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    Contact us:

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17. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

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