Statistical bulletin: UK Trade July 2011

UK Trade July 2011

• The UK’s seasonally adjusted deficit on trade in goods and services remained at £4.5 billion in July.
• The seasonally adjusted deficit on trade in goods remained at £8.9 billion in July.
• The estimated seasonally adjusted surplus on trade in services increased to £4.5 billion in July.
• The seasonally adjusted volume of exports was 2.0 per cent higher and imports 3.8 per cent higher than June.
• Export prices of goods fell by 0.7 per cent but import prices rose by 1.3 per cent, compared with June.

UK Trade in Goods Summary for July 2011

 

Supplementary Analysis Page:

Summary

The UK’s seasonally adjusted deficit on trade in goods and services was £4.5 billion in July, virtually unchanged compared with June. The deficit on trade in goods was £8.9 billion, virtually unchanged compared with June. The surplus on trade in services was estimated at £4.5 billion, compared with £4.4 billion in June. The seasonally adjusted volume of exports of goods was 2.0 per cent higher, and the volume of imports was 3.8 per cent higher than in June. Export prices of goods fell by 0.7 per cent but import prices rose by 1.3 per cent compared with June.

Drivers

Total exports of goods rose by £1.4 billion (5.6 per cent) to £25.4 billion, and total imports of goods also rose by £1.4 billion (4.3 per cent) to £34.3 billion. The rise in exports of goods was driven by increased exports of oil (up £0.5 billion), followed by increased exports of chemicals, capital goods and semi manufactured goods other than chemicals (all up £0.2 billion). The rise in imports of goods was driven by increased imports of chemicals (up £0.4 billion), followed by higher imports of capital goods (up £0.3 billion) and higher imports of oil (up £0.2 billion). 

Oil

The increase in total exports of oil was comprised of increased exports of crude oil (up £0.5 billion), and included increased exports of crude oil to the Netherlands in particular, and to a lesser extent to France. Exports of other (non-crude) oil to non-EU countries increased (up £0.2 billion), including higher exports of other (non-crude) oil to the US. Exports of other (non-crude) oil to EU countries decreased.

Chemicals

The increase in imports of chemicals was comprised largely of imports of organic chemicals (up £0.3 billion). Organic chemicals are a broad class of substances containing carbon and its derivatives, including hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, sulphur, phosphorus and other elements. They form the basis for a wide range of commodities including plastics, detergents, adhesives, solvents, lubricants, paints, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.

Capital Goods

The increase in exports of capital goods was comprised largely of exports of electrical engineering goods (up £0.1 billion), and exports of mechanical engineering goods and exports of scientific and photographic apparatus (both up less than £0.1 billion).  The increase in imports of capital goods was comprised largely of imports of electrical engineering goods (up £0.2 billion), and imports of railway equipment (up less than £0.1 billion).

Semi Manufactured goods other than chemicals

The increase in exports of semi manufactured goods other than chemicals was comprised largely of exports of metal manufactures to the Netherlands and Germany.
  

Note:
Care should be taken when using the month-on-month growth rates due to their volatility.

Value of UK trade in goods (seasonally adjusted)

In July, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods remained at £8.9 billion.
Total exports rose by £1.4 billion (5.6 per cent) to £25.4 billion and total imports rose by £1.4 billion (4.3 per cent) to £34.3 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value, July 11 compared with June 11

							Exports (£m)		Imports (£m)
Oil (see trade in oil section)							+466		+227
Cars							+95		+60
Consumer goods other than cars							-42		-154
Intermediate goods							-77		+119
Capital goods							+191		+329
Chemicals							+245		+403
Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals							+190		+147

In the three months ended July, the deficit on trade in goods widened by £4.4 billion to £26.3 billion, compared with the deficit of £21.8 billion in the three months ending April 2011.
Total exports rose by £0.4 billion (0.5 per cent) to £74.6 billion and total imports rose by £4.8 billion (5.0 per cent) to £100.9 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value, May - July 11 compared with February - April 11

							Exports (£m)		Imports (£m)
Oil (see section on trade in oil)							-308		+1 033
Cars							-345		-507
Consumer goods other than cars							+64		+694
Intermediate goods							-68		+287
Capital goods							-101		+573
Chemicals							-35		+1 202
Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals							-3		+325
Silver (see background notes - Interpreting the data)							+481
Food drink and tobacco (see background notes - Interpreting the data)									+510

 

 

Trade in goods - EU analysis (seasonally adjusted)

In July, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries widened by £0.3 billion to £3.4 billion, compared with the deficit of £3.2 billion in June.
EU exports rose by £0.7 billion (5.2 per cent) to £14.0 billion and EU imports rose by £1.0 billion (5.8 per cent) to £17.4 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value, July 11 compared with June 11

							Exports (£m)		Imports (£m)
Oil (see section on trade in oil)							+211		+189
Cars							0		+68
Consumer goods other than cars							-20		-189
Intermediate goods							+14		+132
Capital goods							+60		+157
Chemicals							+233		+495
Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals							+98		+68

In the three months ended July, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries narrowed by £0.1 billion to £9.9 billion, compared with the deficit of £10.1 billion in the three months ending April 2011.
EU exports rose by £2.3 billion (5.9 per cent) to £41.2 billion and EU imports rose by £2.2 billion (4.4 per cent) to £51.2 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value, May - July 11 compared with February - April 11

							Exports (£m)		Imports (£m)
Oil (see section on trade in oil)							+678		+319
Cars							-77		-317
Consumer goods other than cars							+165		+230
Intermediate goods							+61		+413
Capital goods							+249		+274
Chemicals							+313		+471
Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals							+107		+62
Food drink and tobacco (see background notes section - Interpreting the data)									+408

 

Trade in goods - non-EU analysis (seasonally adjusted)

In July, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.2 billion to £5.5 billion, compared with the deficit of £5.7 billion in June.
Non-EU exports rose by £0.7 billion (6.1 per cent) to £11.4 billion and non-EU imports rose by £0.4 billion (2.7 per cent) to £16.9 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (non-EU), July 11 compared with June 11

							Exports (£m)		Imports (£m)
Oil (see section on trade in oil)							+255		+38
Cars							+95		-8
Consumer goods other than cars							-22		+35
Intermediate goods							-91		-13
Capital goods							+131		+172
Chemicals							+12		-92
Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals							+92		+79

In the three months ended July, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries widened by £4.6 billion to £16.3 billion, compared with the deficit of £11.7 billion in the three months ending April 2011.
Non-EU exports fell by £1.9 billion (5.5 per cent) to £33.4 billion but non-EU imports rose by £2.6 billion (5.6 per cent) to £49.7 billion. At the commodity level:

Change in key commodity value (non-EU), May - July 11 compared with February - April 11

							Exports (£m)		Imports (£m)
Oil (see section on trade in oil)							-986		+714
Cars							-268		-190
Consumer goods other than cars							-101		+464
Intermediate goods							-129		-126
Capital goods							-350		+299
Chemicals							-348		+731
Semi-manufactured goods other than chemicals							-110		+263
Silver (see background notes section - Interpreting the data)							+463

Trade in goods - one month geographical analysis (seasonally adjusted)

July 2011 compared with June 2011

Within the EU countries, exports to the Netherlands rose by £0.2 billion. Among Non-EU countries, there were no export movements in excess of £0.2 billion. (See background notes, ‘Interpreting the Data’).
Within the EU countries, imports from Germany rose by £0.6 billion and imports from Denmark rose by £0.3 billion. Among Non-EU countries, imports from Canada rose by £0.2 billion.

Change in monthly trade with significant partner countries, July 11 compared with June 11

Change in monthly trade with significant partner countries,  July 2011 compared with June 2011¹
		Exports (£m)					Imports (£m)
		Jul 11	1 month				Jul 11	1 month
		Value	Change				Value	Change
1	USA	3113	+189		1	Germany	4478	+551
2	Germany	2731	+103		2	China	2616	+68
3	Netherlands	2214	+205		3	Netherlands	2476	+153
4	France	1901	+162		4	USA	2278	-62
5	Irish Republic	1527	-25		5	Norway	2020	-66
6	Belgium-Luxembourg	1450	+28		6	France	1973	+45
7	Italy	958	+84		7	Belgium/Luxembourg	1736	+19
8	Spain	795	-38		8	Italy	1100	-109
9	China	782	+78		9	Irish Republic	1054	+3
10	Sweden	557	+23		10	Spain	925	-40
1 Significant trading partners defined as top 10 export markets & import sources 2010 (see Monthly Review of External Trade table G1).

Trade in goods - three monthly geographical analysis (seasonally adjusted)

Three months ended July 2011 compared with the three months ended April 2011

Within the EU countries, exports to France rose by £0.6 billion. Exports to Belgium/Luxembourg and Germany both rose by £0.5 billion. Among Non-EU countries, exports to India rose by £0.4 billion but exports to the USA fell by £1.1 billion.
Within the EU countries, imports from Germany rose by £0.5 billion. Among Non-EU countries, imports from China and Russia both rose by £0.4 billion but imports from Norway fell by £0.5 billion.

Change in 3 monthly trade with significant partner countries, May-July 11 compared with February-April 11

		Exports (£m)					Imports (£m)
		May - Jul	3 month				May - Jul	3 month
		Value	Change				Value	Change
1	USA	9421	-1074		1	Germany	12802	+520
2	Germany	8175	+477		2	China	7697	+401
3	Netherlands	6092	+378		3	Netherlands	7145	+266
4	France	5799	+577		4	USA	7064	-128
5	Irish Republic	4596	+242		5	Norway	5936	-542
6	Belgium-Luxembourg	4391	+537		6	France	5825	+331
7	Italy	2661	+108		7	Belgium/Luxembourg	5308	+247
8	Spain	2450	-4		8	Italy	3482	+6
9	China	2187	+44		9	Irish Republic	3140	+105
10	Sweden	1636	-13		10	Spain	2804	+34
Significant trading partners defined as top 10 export markets & import sources 2010 (see Monthly Review of External Trade table G1).

 

Volume of total trade in goods, excluding oil and erratics (seasonally adjusted)

In July, the volume of exports rose by 2.0 per cent and the volume of imports rose by 3.8 per cent, compared with June. At the commodity level:

In the three months ended July, the volume of exports fell by 2.8 per cent but the volume of imports rose by 1.1 per cent, compared with the three months ending April 2011. At the commodity level:

 

Export and import prices for trade in goods (not seasonally adjusted)

In July, export prices fell by 0.7 per cent but import prices rose by 1.3 per cent, compared with June. This led to a decrease in the terms of trade. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices fell by 0.9 per cent but import prices rose by 1.3 per cent.
In the three months ended July, export prices rose by 1.4 per cent and import prices rose by 2.3 per cent. This led to a decrease in the terms of trade. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices rose by 1.3 per cent and import prices rose by 2.5 per cent.

 

 

Trade in oil (seasonally adjusted)

In July, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £1.2 billion, compared with a deficit of £1.5 billion in June. Oil exports rose by £0.5 billion to £3.4 billion and oil imports rose by £0.2 billion to £4.6 billion.
In the three months ended July, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £3.2 billion, compared with the deficit of £1.8 billion with the three months ending April 2011. Oil exports fell by £0.3 billion to £9.6 billion but oil imports rose by £1.0 billion to £12.8 billion.

Trade in services (seasonally adjusted)

In July, the UK’s estimated surplus on trade in services increased by £0.1 billion to £4.5 billion compared with a surplus of £4.4 billion in June.
Exports fell by £0.1 billion (0.9 per cent) to £13.9 billion but imports fell by £0.2 billion (2.3 per cent) to £9.4 billion.
In the three months ended July, the estimated surplus on trade in services narrowed by £0.7 billion to £13.3 billion, compared with the surplus of £13.9 billion with the three months ending April 2011.
Total exports rose by £0.3 billion (0.8 per cent) to £41.8 billion and total imports rose by £1.0 billion (3.6 per cent) to £28.5 billion.

 

 

Records Sheet

UK trade record information for July 2011 can be accessed here.

Background notes

1. What’s new?
   Revisions Policy
   In accordance with National Accounts revision policy, there are no revisions to data since the last UK Trade Statistical Bulletin of 9 August 2011.  

   Changes to customs procedures for non-EU exports: July 2011
   A change to the customs system administrating the export of goods to non-EU countries from the UK took place on 1 July 2011. This could have a marginal effect on July non-EU Overseas Trade Statistics exports data used as inputs to this statistical bulletin. More details can be found at the following link.

   Upcoming Changes
   The quarterly GDP and Balance of Payments datasets consistent with Blue Book and Pink Book 2011 are due to be published on 5th October 2011.
   The UK Trade Statistical Bulletin to be published on 13 October 2011 will have a revision period back to January 1998. This will be in line with the open revisions period for the 2011 Blue Book.
   UK Trade produces UK Trade in Goods Analysed in Terms of Industries on a quarterly basis. Currently, this data is published in accordance with the 2003 UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC 2003). From 13 October 2011, this data will be published in accordance with the 2007 UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC 2007)
   Blue Book and Pink Book 2011 are due to be published on 1st November.  An article on the content of Blue Book 2011 has been produced and can be found at the following link 
   

    

2. Code of Practice for Official Statistics 
   National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. © Crown copyright 2011.

3. Understanding the data 
     
   Short Guide to UK Trade 
   Ever since statistics on exports and imports of goods were first collected in 1697 UK trade has been one of the country’s key economic indicators.

   All information included in the monthly UK Trade First Release is on a BoP basis and is seasonally adjusted. The release contains tables showing the total value of trade in goods together with index numbers of volume and price, figures analysed by broad commodity group (values and indices) and according to geographical area (values only). In addition the Trade statistical bulletin also includes early monthly estimates of the value of trade in services.

   Data appearing in the UK Trade statistical bulletin also used as a direct input into the quarterly Balance of Payments and National Accounts.
   

   Interpreting the data
   Monthly commodity movements for Food, beverages and tobacco, Basic materials, Fuels other than oil, and Erratics (Ships, Aircraft, Precious stones, and Silver) are only detailed in this Statistical Bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £200 million (£400 million for three monthly comparisons).
   Monthly country movements are only detailed in this Statistical Bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £200 million (£400 million for three monthly comparisons).

   VAT Missing Trader Intra Community (MTIC) fraud
   Import figures for trade in goods include adjustments to allow for the impact of VAT MTIC fraud.
   The adjustments to trade in goods relate only to part of the carousel version of VAT MTIC fraud. This fraud leads to under recording of imports as fraudsters import goods from the EU, which they then sell on before disappearing without paying VAT on that sale. The goods are eventually exported. Such exports are declared and are therefore already reflected in the UK’s trade in goods statistics.
   Changes to the pattern of trading associated with MTIC fraud can make it difficult to analyse trade by commodity group and by country as changes in the impact of activity associated with this fraud affect both imports and exports. However, the MTIC trade adjustments are added to the EU import estimates derived from Intrastat returns as it is this part of the trading chain that is not generally recorded. In particular, adjustments affect trade in capital goods and intermediate goods - these categories include mobile phones and computer components, which are still the most widely affected goods.
   International convention determines that the treatment of the impact is to adjust imports upwards by the relevant amounts of missing declarations (non-response). However, users may wish to interpret short term movements in imports excluding that part of the fraudulent activity that is not included in the import estimates, and for this purpose an analysis of the import figures with the VAT MTIC adjustments excluded is shown in Table 13.

   Definitions and explanations

   A glossary of terms is published in the UK Balance of Payments (Pink Book).  
     
   Use of the data
   UK Trade is a key economic indicator due to the importance of international trade to the UK economy. It is also a very timely statistic, providing an early indicator of what is happening more generally in the economy.
   In addition, it is a major component of two other key economic statistics – UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the UK Balance of Payments. This means that there is a threefold potential for UK Trade statistics to inform the Government’s view of the UK economy, as well as the views of others, such as economists, City analysts, academics, the media, and international organisations.
   

   Notes on tables – rounding:
   The sum of constituent items in tables do not always agree exactly with the totals shown due to rounding.
   Symbols
   ..    Not applicable
   -     Nil or less than half the final digit shown.

4. Methods

   • Composition of the data
     Detailed methodological notes are published in the UK Balance of Payments (Pink Book).
   • Seasonal adjustment
     Seasonal adjustment aims to remove effects associated with the time of the year or the arrangement of the calendar so that movements within a time series may be more easily interpreted.
   • Deflation
     It is common for the value of a group of financial transactions to be measured in several time periods. The values measured will include both the change in the volume sold and the effect of the change of prices over that year. Deflation is the process whereby the effect of price change is removed from a set of values.
     Chain-linked indices (chained volume measures) which are indexed to form the volume series in this bulletin differ from fixed base indices in that the growth from one year to the next is estimated by weighting the components using the contribution to value of trade in the immediately preceding year (effectively re-basing every year). This series of annually re-weighted annual growths is then ‘chain-linked’ to produce a continuous series.
     The implied price deflators derived by comparing current price data to chained volume measures data are not the same as the price indices published in this statistical bulletin because the former are current weighted while the latter are base (2006) weighted.
     Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution.
      
     A paper entitled Overseas Trade Statistics Methodology describing the basis on which trade in goods statistics are compiled is available on the UK Trade Info website:
     A further paper Statistics on Trade in Goods (GSS Methodological Series No. 36) describing the adjustments that need to be applied to conform to IMF definitions for Balance of Payments and the division of responsibility between ONS and HMRC is available on the National Statistics website
     The Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS) data used as inputs to this statistical bulletin are collected and published by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) on an International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) basis.
     

5. Quality 
   Basic quality information
   Accuracy: Trade in goods figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in the light of (a) late trader data, revisions to trade prices and revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, and (b) revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month.

   Trade in services estimates have been derived from a number of monthly and quarterly sources. For components where no monthly data are available, estimates have been derived on the basis of recent trends. The results should be used with appropriate caution, as they are therefore likely to be less reliable than those for trade in goods. More details of the data sources, estimation methodology and reliability of the monthly estimates of trade in services were set out in Economic Trends (January 1996 and September 1997).

   Reliability: Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. The table below shows summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to the data covering a five year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows that the test is significant. An article explaining the past revisions performance for UK Trade statistics and what is being done to improve the first published estimates was published on 9 May 2005

   Revision table

   			£million
   		Revisions between first publication and estimates twelve months later
   	Value in latest period	Average over the last 5 years (mean revision)	Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
   Total trade exports (IKBH)	39 256	846	1 102
   Total trade imports (IKBI)	43 706	687	1 044
   Total trade balance (IKBJ)	-4 450	167	519

   Download table

   • XLS format
     (26 Kb)

   The table covers estimates of UK trade first published from May 2005 (for May 2005) to July 2010 (for January 2010).  Spreadsheets giving these estimates and the calculations behind the averages in the table is available on the National Statistics website 
    
   An article analysing past revisions to quarterly balance of payments current account data was published in the May 2007 edition of Economic & Labour Market Review. It is available on the National Statistics website
   More information about revisions material in this Statistical Bulletin can be found on the National Statistics website

6. Coherence - EU enlargement and country coverage: Two more countries joined the EU from 1 January 2007. These countries were Bulgaria and Romania. In addition, the coverage of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries was extended to include Slovenia.  In order to enable users to make long-run comparisons, data for the new definition EU and non-EU was produced from January 1998 onwards for value, and from January 1999 onwards for volume and price indices. At the same time data for the old definitions were no longer maintained. There are additional series for country groupings on the old definitions.

   The coverage of EMU countries was extended to cover Cyprus and Malta from July 2008, Slovakia from January 2009, and Estonia from January 2011.  Some EU and non-EU breakdowns of commodity data for Chained Volume Measures which are available from the Statbase® service may be less reliable than the current price data. Please consult Marilyn Thomas on 01633 455708 if you are considering using them.
   Data have been combined for the United States and Puerto Rico, and for Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah (the United Arab Emirates) from January 2009 onwards. Estimates are separately available for the United States and Dubai up till the end of 2008 on request.

   Coherence - classifications and definitions. The Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS), on which the BoP trade data are based, have been compiled under the United Nations Standard International Trade Classification Revision 4 (SITC R4) from January 2007 but the data have been converted back to SITC R3 for this Statistical Bulletin and the Monthly Review of External Trade Statistics (MRETS) publication to help users compare data over time. There are some discontinuities at detailed levels, particularly between capital and intermediate goods where some products are allocated from January 2007 to intermediate goods rather than capital goods as done previously. It is also possible that volume and price changes between 2006 and 2007 may be less reliable than for other periods.

7. Summary quality report
   A Summary Quality Report for this Statistical Bulletin and associated data can be found on the National Statistics website 

8. National Accounts revisions policy 
   Avialable in the 'Revisions policies for Key Outputs' section on the Revisions to Economic Statistics page.

9. Revisions
   In accordance with National Accounts Revisions Policy there are no revisions since the last UK Trade Statistical Bulletin of 9 August 2011.

   Publication policy
   Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office. Also available is a list of the organisations given pre-publication access to the contents of this bulletin.

   Accessing data  
   Supplementary commodity data for this Statistical Bulletin (Monthly Review of External Trade Statistics); and quarterly data analysed by industry according to the Standard Industrial Classification (UK Trade in Goods Analysed in Terms of Industries) are also available free of charge as PDF files on the National Statistics website 

   The complete run of data in the tables of this Statistical Bulletin are also available to view and download in other electronic formats free of charge using the ONS Time Series Data website service. Users can download the complete Statistical Bulletin in a choice of zipped formats, or view and download their own selections of individual series. The Time Series Data service can be accessed here
   

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13. Next publication: 13 October 2011
    

    Issued by: Office for National Statistics, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport NP10 8XG
    

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14. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk