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Statistical bulletin: Producer Price Index, December 2011 This product is designated as National Statistics

Released: 13 January 2012 Download PDF

Key points

  • In the year to December 2011 the output price index for home sales of manufactured products rose 4.8 per cent, compared with a rise of 5.4 per cent last month. This is the lowest annual rate since December 2010, when the index rose 4.2 per cent.
  • Between November and December the output index for home sales of manufactured products fell 0.2 per cent. This is the first monthly fall since June 2010, when the index also fell 0.2 per cent.
  • In the year to December 2011 the output price index excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum rose 3.0 per cent.
  • In the year to December 2011 the total input price index rose 8.7 per cent, compared with a rise of 13.6 per cent last month. This is the lowest annual rate since October 2010, when the index rose 8.5 per cent.
  • Between November and December the total input price index fell 0.6 per cent.

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers and provides a key measure of inflation, alongside other indicators such as the Retail Prices Index (RPI), Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and Services Producer Prices Index (SPPI). This Statistical Bulletin contains a comprehensive selection of data on input and output index series. It contains producer price indices of materials and fuels purchased and output of manufacturing industry by broad sector.

The output price indices measure change in the prices of goods produced by UK manufacturers (these are often called 'factory gate prices').

The input price indices measure change in the prices of materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers for processing. These are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day to day running.

Imported Price Indices (IPIs) are a series of economic indicators that measure change in the prices of goods and raw materials imported into the UK. IPIs are a key component of input price indices.

Exported Price Indices (EPIs) are a series of economic indicators that measure change in the prices of goods manufactured in the UK but destined for export markets.

Output Prices: Summary

In the year to December 2011, movements in output prices for UK manufactured products were as follows:

  • The output price index for home sales of manufactured products rose 4.8 per cent, compared with a rise of 5.4 per cent last month. This is the lowest annual rate since December 2010, when the index rose 4.2 per cent.

  • The output price index excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum rose 3.0 per cent, compared with a rise of 3.1 per cent last month. This is the lowest annual rate since December 2010, when the index rose 2.7 per cent.

  • The output price index excluding excise duty rose 4.8 per cent, compared with a rise of 5.6 per cent last month. This is the lowest annual rate since December 2010, when the index rose 4.0 per cent.

 Between November and December:

  • The output price index for home sales of manufactured products fell 0.2 per cent. This is the first monthly fall since June 2010, when the index also fell 0.2 per cent. The last time the monthly fall was larger was in November 2008, when the index fell 0.7 per cent. There were price decreases in petroleum products, chemical & pharmaceutical products and transport equipment. These decreases were offset by price increases in other manufactured products and food products.

 

Output prices

Output prices 12 months percentage change: materials & fuels purchased and excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum industries - December 2011
Source: Index Numbers of Producer Prices (PPI): Provision of Price Information - Office for National Statistics

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Output prices (home sales), December 2011

Percentage change (not seasonally adjusted)
   All manufactured products  Excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum  All manufactured products excluding duty
 1 month  12 months  1 month  12 months  1 month  12 months
2011 Jul 0.3 6.1 0.4 3.4 0.3 6.2
Aug 0.0 6.0 0.1 3.5 0.1 6.2
Sep 0.3 6.3 0.3 3.7 0.2 6.4
Oct 0.0 5.7 -0.1 3.3 0.1 5.9
Nov 0.2 5.4 -0.1 3.1 0.2 5.6
  Dec -0.2 4.8 -0.1 3.0 -0.2 4.8

Table source: Office for National Statistics

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Input Prices: Summary

In the year to December 2011, movements in input prices1,2 of materials and fuels purchased by the UK manufacturing industry were as follows:

  • The total input price index rose 8.7 per cent, compared with a rise of 13.6 per cent last month. This is the lowest annual rate since October 2010, when the index rose 8.5 per cent.

  • The input price index for the manufacturing industry excluding the food, beverages tobacco & petroleum industries rose 6.9 per cent, compared with a rise of 10.0 per cent last month. This is the lowest annual rate since October 2010, when the index rose 6.0 per cent.

Between November and December:

  • The total input price index fell 0.6 per cent, mainly reflecting price falls in crude oil, imported chemicals, other imported parts & equipment and other imported materials.

  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the input price index for the manufacturing industry excluding the food, beverages tobacco & petroleum industries fell 0.7 per cent. This is the largest monthly fall since November 2009, when the index also fell 0.7 per cent. The last time the monthly fall was larger was in April 2009 when the index fell 1.3 per cent.

  • The price of imported materials as a whole (including crude oil) fell 0.9 per cent.

Input prices (materials & fuel) manufacturing industry

Input prices (materials & fuel) purchased and excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum industries: 12 months percentage change - December 2011
Source: Index Numbers of Producer Prices (PPI): Provision of Price Information - Office for National Statistics

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Input prices, December 2011

Percentage change
   Materials & fuels purchased  Excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum industries
 1 month (NSA)  12 months (NSA)  1 month (NSA)  12 month (NSA)  1 month (SA)
2011 Jul 0.6 18.5 1.0 13.3 0.8
Aug -1.9 16.3 -0.6 13.0 0.2
Sep 2.0 18.0 0.6 13.2 0.6
Oct -0.8 14.3 -0.2 10.8 -0.5
Nov 0.3 13.6 0.1 10.0 0.1
  Dec -0.6 8.7  -0.5 6.9 -0.7

Table source: Office for National Statistics

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Notes for Input Prices: Summary

  1. These indices include the Climate Change Levy which was introduced in June 2001.

  2. These indices include the Aggregate Levy which was introduced in June 2002.

Output Prices: Detail

The contributions to movements in the total output index by the main product groups over the last year and month (not seasonally adjusted) are:

12 months change to December 2011

Product group Percentage change
Food products 7.1
Tobacco & alcohol 6.6
Clothing, textiles & leather 5.5
Paper & printing 3.5
Petroleum products 10.5
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals 3.3
Metal, machinery & equipment 3.6
Computer, electrical & optical 0.5
Transport equipment 0.9
Other manufactured products 3.3
   
All manufacturing 4.8

Table source: Office for National Statistics

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1 month change to December 2011

Product group Percentage change
Food products 0.1
Tobacco & alcohol 0.0
Clothing, textiles & leather 0.0
Paper & printing 0.1
Petroleum products -0.9
Chemicals & pharmaceuticals -0.9
Metal, machinery & equipment -0.1
Computer, electrical & optical 0.1
Transport equipment -0.2
Other manufactured products 0.2
   
All manufacturing -0.2

Table source: Office for National Statistics

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Contribution to 12 months percentage change in total (4.8%)

Contribution to 12 months percentage change in total (4.8%) - December 2011
Source: Index Numbers of Producer Prices (PPI): Provision of Price Information - Office for National Statistics

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Contribution to 1 month percentage change in total (-0.2%)

Contribution to 1 month percentage change in total (-0.2%) - December 2011
Source: Index Numbers of Producer Prices (PPI): Provision of Price Information - Office for National Statistics

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Input Prices: Detail

The contributions to movements in the total input index by the main commodities over the year and month (not seasonally adjusted) are:

12 months change to December 2011

Product group Percentage change
Fuel incl. CCL 6.3
Crude oil  21.2
Home food materials 1.6
Imported food materials 6.4
Other home-prod. materials 4.9
Imported metals 0.4
Imported chemicals 4.6
Imported parts & equipment 4.2
Other imported materials 9.7
   
All manufacturing 8.7

Table source: Office for National Statistics

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1 month change to December 2011

Product group Percentage change
Fuel incl. CCL 0.1
Crude oil  -1.0
Home food materials 0.5
Imported food materials 0.0
Other home-prod. materials -0.2
Imported metals -0.7
Imported chemicals -1.3
Imported parts & equipment -0.6
Other imported materials -0.7
   
All manufacturing -0.6

Table source: Office for National Statistics

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Contribution to 12 months percentage change in total (8.7%)

Contribution to 12 months percentage change in total (8.7%) - December 2011
Source: Index Numbers of Producer Prices (PPI): Provision of Price Information - Office for National Statistics

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Contribution to 1 month percentage change in total (-0.6%)

Contribution to 1 month percentage change in total (-0.6%) - December 2011
Source: Index Numbers of Producer Prices (PPI): Provision of Price Information - Office for National Statistics

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Output Prices: Summary Of Statistics

The overall output price index rose 4.8 per cent in the year to December 2011, compared with a rise of 5.4 per cent in the year to November. The index fell 0.2 per cent between November and December, with price decreases in petroleum products, chemical & pharmaceutical products and transport equipment being offset by price increases in other manufactured products and food products.

Petroleum product prices fell 0.9 per cent between November and December and rose 10.5 per cent in the year to December. This is the lowest annual rate since November 2010, when the index rose 9.9 per cent. The monthly fall was mainly due to a 1.2 per cent decrease in the price of diesel and gas oil.

Chemical & pharmaceutical product prices fell 0.9 per cent between November and December and rose 3.3 per cent in the year to December. This is the lowest annual rate since January 2010, when the index rose 3.0 per cent. The monthly fall was due to widespread decreases across a broad range of products, most notably a 3.8 per cent fall in the price of fertilisers & nitrogen compounds, a 2.1 per cent fall in the price of other organic basic chemicals and a 1.5 per cent fall in the price of plastics in primary form.

Transport equipment prices fell 0.2 per cent between November and December and rose 0.9 per cent in the year to December. The monthly fall was mainly due to a 0.5 per cent decrease in the price of other parts & accessories for motor vehicles, most notably safety seat belts, airbags & parts & accessories of vehicle bodies, which fell 0.8 per cent in the month.

Other manufactured product prices rose 0.2 per cent between November and December and rose 3.3 per cent in the year to December. The monthly rise was mainly due to a 2.5 per cent rise in the price of jewellery & related articles.

Food product prices rose 0.1 per cent between November and December and rose 7.1 per cent in the year to December. The monthly increase was mainly due to a 2.0 per cent rise in the price of processed & preserved meat.

Output price index excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum

The output price index for manufactured products excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum rose 3.0 per cent in the year to December, compared with a rise of 3.1 per cent in the year to November. This index is not affected by changes in excise duty. The index fell 0.1 per cent between November and December compared with no movement between November and December 2010.

Output price index excluding excise duty

This index rose 4.8 per cent in the year to December, compared with a rise of 5.6 per cent in the year to November. The index excluding excise duty fell 0.2 per cent between November and December, compared with a rise of 0.6 per cent between November and December 2010.

Input Prices: Summary Of Statistics

The overall input index rose 8.7 per cent in the year to December, compared with a rise of 13.6 per cent in the year to November. This is the lowest annual rate since October 2010, when the index rose 8.5 per cent.

The input index for all manufacturing fell 0.6 per cent between November and December, compared with a rise of 3.9 per cent between November and December 2010. The monthly fall in the input index mainly reflecting price decreases in crude oil, imported chemicals, other imported parts & equipment and other imported materials.

Crude oil prices fell 1.0 per cent between November and December and rose 21.2 per cent in the year to December. This is the lowest annual rate since November 2010, when the index rose 15.6 per cent.

Imported chemical product prices fell 1.3 per cent between November and December. This is the largest monthly fall since June 2009, when the index fell 1.7 per cent. The index rose 4.6 per cent in the year to December. This is the lowest annual rate since March 2010, when the index rose 4.0 per cent. The monthly fall was due to widespread decreases across a range of products, including a 1.8 per cent fall in the price of EU imports of plastics in primary forms, a 2.0 per cent fall in the price of EU imports of other organic basic chemicals and a 5.5 per cent fall in the price of EU imports of basic pharmaceutical products & pharmaceutical preparations.

Other imported parts & equipment product prices fell 0.6 per cent between November and December and rose 4.2 per cent in the year to December. The monthly fall was due to widespread decreases across a broad range of products, most notably a 1.3 per cent fall in the price of imported parts & accessories for motor vehicles, a 1.3 per cent fall in the price of imported other fabricated metal products and a 0.8 per cent fall in the price of imported electronic components & boards.

Other imported material prices fell 0.7 per cent between November and December. This is the largest monthly fall since August 2010, when the index fell 1.0 per cent. The index rose 9.7 per cent in the year to December. The monthly fall was due to widespread decreases across a range of products, including a 0.8 per cent fall in the price of imported pulp, paper & paperboard, a 3.7 per cent fall in the price of non EU imported textile yarn & thread and a 0.5 per cent fall in the price of imported metal ores & other non mining & quarrying products.

Apart from fuels (inc CCL) and food all other product groups recorded price decreases in the month of December.

Input price index excluding the food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum industries

The index for materials and fuels purchased by manufacturing industry excluding the food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum industries fell 0.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms between November and December. The unadjusted index rose 6.9 per cent in the year to December, compared with a rise of 10.0 per cent in the year to November.

Output Prices: Records

All manufactured products

Annual rate 4.8%, down from 5.4% last month. Last lower in December 2010 (4.2%). Monthly rate -0.2% down from 0.2% last month. Also -0.2% in June 2010. Last lower in November 2008 (-0.7%).

Excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum

Annual rate 3.0%, down from 3.1% last month. Last lower in December 2010 (2.7%). Monthly rate -0.1% unchanged from the previous two months. Last lower in June 2009 (-0.2%).

All manufactured products excluding duty

Annual rate 4.8%, down from 5.6% last month. Last lower in December 2010 (4.0%). Monthly rate -0.2% down from 0.2% last month. Also -0.2% in June 2010. Last lower in December 2008 (-0.7%).

Food products

Annual rate 7.1%, down from 8.3% last month. Last lower in February 2011 (6.3%). Monthly rate 0.1% unchanged from last month. Last lower in September 2010 (-0.2%).

Tobacco & alcohol (inc duty)

Annual rate 6.6%, up from 6.3% last month. Last higher in July 2009 (6.8%). Monthly rate 0.0% down from 0.5% last month. Also 0.0% in September 2011. Last lower in August 2011 (-0.4%).

Clothing, textiles & leather

Annual rate 5.5%, down from 5.9% last month. Last lower in August 2011 (5.1%). Monthly rate 0.0% up from -0.1% last month.

Paper & printing

Annual rate 3.5%, down from 3.8% last month. Also 3.5% in October 2010. Last lower in July 2010 (3.1%). Monthly rate 0.1% up from -0.3% last month.

Petroleum products

Annual rate 10.5%, down from 14.8% last month. Last lower in November 2010 (9.9%). Monthly rate -0.9% down from 0.8% last month. Last lower in July 2010 (-1.1%).

Chemical & pharmaceutical products

Annual rate 3.3%, down from 4.8% last month. Last lower in January 2010 (3.0%). Monthly rate -0.9% down from 0.0% last month. Last lower in February 2011 (-1.1%).

Metal, machinery & equipment nec

Annual rate 3.6%, down from 4.0% last month. Last lower in September 2011 (3.5%). Monthly rate -0.1%, down from 0.3% last month. Last lower in July 2009 (-0.3%).

Computer, electrical & optical equipment

Annual rate 0.5%, up from -1.1% last month. Last higher in March 2011 (0.7%). Monthly rate 0.1% up from -0.1% last month. Last higher in September 2011 (0.4%).

Transport equipment

Annual rate 0.9%, down from 1.1% last month. Last lower in April 2011 (0.8%). Monthly rate -0.2% unchanged from last month. Last lower in January 2011 (-0.3%).

Other manufactured products

Annual rate 3.3%, unchanged from last month. Also 3.3% in June 2011. Last lower in April 2011 (3.1%). Monthly rate 0.2% up from 0.1% last month. Also 0.2% in both August and September 2011. Last higher in July 2011 (0.3%).

Input Prices: Records

Materials & fuels purchased

Annual rate 8.7%, down from 13.6% last month. Last lower in October 2010 (8.5%). Monthly rate -0.6% down from 0.3% last month. Last lower October 2011 (-0.8%).

Excluding food, beverages, tobacco & petroleum industries

Annual rate 6.9%, down from 10.0% last month. Last lower in October 2010 (6.0%). Monthly rate (seasonally adjusted) -0.7% down from 0.1% last month. Also -0.7% in November 2009. Last lower in April 2009 (-1.3%).

Fuel including climate change levy

Annual rate 6.3%, down from 12.8% last month. Last lower in March 2011 (4.9%). Monthly rate 0.1% down from 3.2% last month. Last lower in September 2011 (-1.3%).

Crude oil

Annual rate 21.2%, down from 33.2% last month. Last lower in November 2010 (15.6%). Monthly rate -1.0% down from 0.7% last month. Last lower in October 2011 (-2.1%).

Home food materials

Annual rate 1.6%, down from 5.8% last month. Last lower in April 2010 (-3.3%).  Monthly rate 0.5% down from 1.4% last month. Last lower in October 2011 (-0.7%).

Imported food materials

Annual rate 6.4%, down from 7.9% last month. Last lower in November 2010 (6.3%). Monthly rate 0.0% up from -0.5% last month. Last higher in September 2011 (0.7%).

Other home-produced materials

Annual rate 4.9%, up from 4.8% last month. Last higher in October 2011 (5.8%). Monthly rate -0.2% up from -0.6% last month. Last higher in October 2011 (0.3%).

Imported metals

Annual rate 0.4%, down from 4.7% last month. Last lower in August 2009 (-5.9%). Monthly rate -0.7% unchanged from last month. Last higher in September 2011 (-0.3%).

Imported chemicals

Annual rate 4.6%, down from 6.5% last month. Last lower in March 2010 (4.0%). Monthly rate -1.3% down from -0.5% last month. Last lower in June 2009 (-1.7%).

Imported parts & equipment

Annual rate 4.2%, down from 6.1% last month. Last lower in May 2011 (4.1%). Monthly rate -0.6% down from -0.5% last month. Last lower in October 2011 (-0.7%).

Other imported materials

Annual rate 9.7%, down from 11.5% last month. Last lower in June 2011 (8.7%). Monthly rate -0.7% down from -0.5% last month. Last lower in August 2010 (-1.0%).

Revisions

For this bulletin Reference Tables 8R and 9R (219 Kb Excel sheet) highlight revisions to movements in price indices previously published in last month’s Statistical Bulletin. These are mainly caused by changes to the most recent estimates, as more price quotes are received, and revisions to seasonal adjustment factors, which are re-estimated every month.

Revisions between first publication and estimates twelve months later

Percentages
    Value in last period  Revisions between first publication and estimates twelve months later
Average over the last 5 years  Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
Total output: 12 months 4.8 -0.11 0.17
Total output: 1 month -0.2 0.03 0.10
Total input: 12 months 8.7 0.39* 0.71*
Total input: 1 month -0.6 0.14 0.46

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. * Statistically significant.

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Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. The above table shows summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to the data covering a five year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows that the test is significant.

The table presents a summary of the differences between the first estimates published between December 2005 and November 2010 and the estimates published 12 months later. These numbers include the effect of the reclassification onto SIC 2007.

Spreadsheets giving revisions triangles of estimates for all months from January 1998 through to November 2011 and the calculations behind the averages in the table are available in the reference table area of this Statistical Bulletin, please see links:

Background notes

  1. Summary Quality Report

    A Summary Quality Report (95.6 Kb Pdf) for the PPI describes in detail the intended uses of the statistics presented in this publication, their general quality and the methods used to produce them.

  2. Producer Price Index And Services Producer Prices: Implementation Of SIC 2007

    Producer Prices has implemented the change to the Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SIC 2007). The most significant change to PPI output prices involves the reclassification of ‘recovered secondary raw materials’ and ‘publishing’. These are no longer classified in the manufacturing sector, but are classified under services. In addition to this, a new SIC division, ‘repair, installation and maintenance of machinery and equipment’ has been created. Under SIC 2003 these activities were classified within the output of manufacturing, but as part of the specific industries where this activity took place.

    Fundamental changes have been made to the classification of the PPI Trade surveys, Import Price indices (IPI) and Export Price Indices (EPI). As part of the reclassification project the classification of these trade surveys have become compliant with Eurostat’s Short Term Statistics Regulation. The collection of IPI and EPI will now be on an SIC basis, a switch from the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) and Combined Nomenclature (CN) previously used. PPI input prices are heavily dependant on IPI.

    Further information on the changes and impact of the SIC 2007 on prices can be found in an article in Economic & Labour Market Review (84.1 Kb Pdf) , December 2010.

    Any comments about this work and its impact on PPI please contact ppi@ons.gsi.gov.uk

  3. Relevance To Users

    Index numbers shown in the main text of this bulletin are on a net sector basis. The index for any sector relates only to transactions between that sector and other sectors, sales and purchases within sectors are excluded. However, the more detailed figures shown in reference tables 4 and 6 (219 Kb Excel sheet) are on a gross basis; that is, intra industry sales and purchases are included in each of these indices.

    Indices relate to average prices for a month. The full effect of a price change occurring part way through any month will only be reflected in the following month’s index.

    All index numbers exclude VAT. Excise duty (on cigarettes, manufactured tobacco, alcoholic liquor and petroleum products) are included, except where labeled otherwise. Since PPIs exclude VAT, they are not affected by the increase in the standard rate of VAT to 20 per cent from 4 January 2011.

    The detailed input indices of prices of materials and fuels purchased by industry (Reference Table 6) (219 Kb Excel sheet) do not include the climate change levy (CCL). This is because each industry can, in practice, pay its own rate for the various forms of energy, depending on the various negotiated discounts and exemptions that apply.

  4. Common Pitfalls In Interpreting Series

    Expectations of accuracy and reliability in sample surveys are often too high. Revisions and sampling variability are inevitable consequences of the trade off between timeliness, accuracy and the burden on respondents. Details of sampling variability are included elsewhere in this bulletin.

    Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of ‘errors’ in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical ‘error’ but, in this context, the word refers to the uncertainty in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modeling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques or the incorporation of new information which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced. Only rarely are there avoidable ‘errors’ such as human or system failures, and such mistakes are made quite clear when they are discovered and corrected.

  5. Accuracy

    Figures for the latest two months are provisional and the latest five months are subject to revisions in light of (a) late and revised respondent data and (b), for the seasonally adjusted series, revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month. A routine seasonal adjustment review is normally conducted in the autumn annually. There are no planned methodological changes in the next 12 months.

  6. Publication Policy

    The complete run of data in the tables of this bulletin are also available to view and download in other electronic formats free of charge using the Office for National Statistics Datasets and Reference Table service (if you want the data associated with this bulletin click into Download data in this release option). Users can download the complete release in a choice of zipped formats or view and download their own selections of individual series. The Datasets and Reference Tables service can be accessed on the ONS website.

    Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office. A list of the names of those given pre-publication access to the contents of this bulletin is available on the ONS website (57.6 Kb Pdf) . In the light of the timing of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the PPI is provided to the Bank of England at 8.00 am on Thursday in line with release protocols.

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  8. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

  9. Copyright and reproduction

    © Crown copyright 2012

    Under the terms of the Open Government Licence and UK Government Licensing Framework, anyone wishing to use or re-use ONS material, whether commercially or privately, may do so freely without a specific application for a licence, subject to the conditions of the OGL and the Framework.

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  10. Next publication: 10 February 2012

    Media contact:
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  11. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

Statistical contacts

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