Quarter 3 2012 saw the UK host the London 2012 Olympic Games and Paralympics. Estimates drawn from the International Passenger Survey conducted by The Office for National Statistics are that a total of 470,000 overseas residents visited the UK with a primary purpose relating to the Olympics or Paralympics (to watch, work or participate) during this period and a further 215,000 people attended a ticketed Olympics or Paralympics event although their main purpose for visit was not related to the Olympics. (Tables 28 and 29).
The combined figure of 685,000 visits represents approximately 8% of the typical visit volume in quarter 3.
Despite this inflow of Olympics-related visits less people visited the UK in quarter 3. The total of 8.9 million visits (for any purpose) to the UK by overseas residents was 3% lower than in the same period in 2011. Meanwhile UK residents made a slightly-increased number of visits abroad (up 0.3% compared with a year ago, to 19.3 million). Therefore the balance of outbound minus inbound travel and tourism visits was greater than in quarter 3 2011. (Tables 1–4).
Visitors who came to the UK for the purpose of the Olympics spent an average of £1,510 on the visit (including any tickets bought in advance or during the visit) which is more than double the average spend among all visitors (£720). (Tables 28 and 29). This resulted in earnings to the UK in quarter 3 being 8% higher than in quarter 3 2011. In combination with an increase of 4% in spending abroad by UK residents, the deficit to the UK associated with overseas travel and tourism was £5.3 million, unchanged from quarter 3 2011.
The relative geographical source of visitors to the UK in quarter 3 was generally in line with 2011 with visits from each of North America, Europe and other countries falling. Of a total increase in earnings of £0.4 billion in quarter 3, most (£0.3 billion) came from residents of 'other countries'.
London received less overnight visits from overseas residents in quarter 3 2012 than a year earlier, down from 4.4 million to 4.2 million. Visits to the rest of England and Scotland also fell, but not those to Wales. (Tables 13 and 14). However, spending associated with overnight visits to London increased by 11% from £2.8 billion to £3.1 billion. Spending on Olympics and Paralympics tickets will have accounted for a part of this increase. Spending in the rest of England was 4% higher than a year earlier at £2.3 billion, in Scotland 9% lower at £0.6 billion and in Wales spending was unchanged at £0.1 billion.
In the first nine months of 2012 key trends relative to 2011 have been:
No overall % change in the number of visits to the UK by overseas residents
A 5% increase in (unadjusted) earnings from these visits
No change in the number of visits abroad by UK residents
A 4% increase in (unadjusted) expenditure abroad by UK residents
The net result is an increase in deficit to the UK associated with overseas travel and tourism of £150 million, from £11.7 billion to £11.9 billion.
The profile of visits to and from the UK is broadly similar to that in 2011. However, it is noted that visits to North America by UK residents have fallen 4% this year (Table 2).
This report contains estimates of completed international visits to and from the UK and earnings and expenditure associated with these visits. The estimates are derived from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) conducted by ONS at all major air and Eurostar ports in the UK as well as on sea and Eurotunnel routes into and out of the UK.
Reference tables 13 and 14 contained provisional 2011 estimates which were superseded in July 2012 by final 2011 estimates. The tables have now been updated with the final 2011 estimates. ONS apologises for this error.
Estimates contained in this publication are produced from responses provided by international passengers arriving in and departing from the UK, sampled on the International Passenger Survey (127.8 Kb Pdf) conducted by ONS.
Estimates are based on interviews conducted when passengers end their visit. Therefore any visits commencing in the reported quarter but not completed until later are not included in estimates for the reported quarter.
Parts of the report refer to countries visited abroad. It should be noted that if a UK resident visited more than one country on a trip abroad, the country recorded as visited in this publication is the country that was visited for the longest period.
The estimates produced from the IPS are subject to sampling errors that result because not every traveller to or from the UK is interviewed on the survey. Sampling errors are determined both by the sample design and by the sample size - generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particular estimate, the proportionately smaller is its sampling error. The survey sample size is approximately 70,000 per quarter.
Table A shows the 95% confidence intervals for the main quarterly estimates of the total number of visits, nights and expenditure for both overseas residents visiting the UK and UK residents going abroad. These represent the interval into which there are 19 chances out of 20 that the true figure (had all travellers been surveyed) would lie.
If, for example, the relative 95 per cent confidence interval relating to an estimate of 10,000 was 5.0% there would be 19 chances out of 20 that the true figure (if all travellers had been surveyed) would lie in the range 9,500 to 10,500.
|Overseas visitors to the UK|
|Number of visits (1000s)||8,902||3.3%|
|Number of visitor-nights (1000s)||84,390||4.8%|
|Total earnings (£ million)||6,414||5.2%|
|UK residents going abroad|
|Number of visits (1000s)||19,327||1.9%|
|Number of visitor-nights (1000s)||222,881||3.1%|
|Total expenditure (£ million)||11,705||2.8%|
Sampling errors relating to visits, nights and expenditure across regions of the world and purpose groups together with countries visited / visits from and region of the UK visited are provided within the Confidence intervals, Q3 2012 (42.5 Kb Excel sheet) table.
Further guidance for readers is provided about the quality of Overseas Travel & Tourism estimates (404.8 Kb Pdf) .
The London 2012 Olympic games ran from 27 July to 12 August and the Paralympics Games from 29 August to 9 September.
Any visits to the UK by overseas residents completed before the end of September will be covered in the estimates in this publication.
It is estimated that a total of 470,000 visits were made to the UK in quarter 3 2012 primarily for an Olympics-related purpose (to watch, work or participate).
300,000 of these were made by residents of European countries, 84,000 by residents of North America and 85,000 by residents of other countries.
There were 67,000 visits from residents of USA, more than from any other country. This was followed by 54,000 from France, 47,000 from German and 46,000 from Netherlands.
Outside of Europe and North America the two countries from which most people came for the Olympics or Paralympics were Australia (15,000) and Brazil (9,000).
Visitors whose main reason for visiting the UK was Olympics-related stayed for an average of 8 days, compared with an average of 9 days among all visitors. They spent an average of £1,510 on their visit (including any tickets or other items bought in advance of the visit) compared with an average of £720 among all visitors.
363,000 of the 470,000 visits involved an overnight stay in London. 97,000 involved a stay elsewhere in England, 8,000 in Scotland and 7,000 in Wales. It is pointed out that a visit involving an overnight stay in one region may have involved a day visit to other regions.
Despite the 363,000 overnight visits to London by Olympics-related visitors, total overnight visits to London were 200,000 lower than in quarter 3 2011.
People who visited for an Olympics-related purpose and stayed in London overnight spent a total of £556 million (an average of £1,534) in London, contributing to total spend by overseas residents staying overnight in London being £370 million more this quarter than in Q3 2011.
Further analysis of overseas travel and tourism trends are provided in the publications:
Monthly Overseas Travel and Tourism, latest publication November 2012 published 10 January 2013; next release December 2012 to be published on the 14 February 2013
Travel Trends, latest publication Travel Trends 2011 published July 2012, next publication Travel Trends 2012 to be published July 2013. This publication provides more detailed analysis of visits and spending, including analysis by demographics, towns in the UK visited and countries visited by residents of different parts of the UK.
Travelpac is a data set which allows users to conduct their own analysis of quarterly and annual data on key variables. The datasets are provided in SPSS and Excel, latest publication Quarter 3 2012 published 10 January 2013.
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Table 5: Overseas earnings and expenditure at constant (1995) prices - includes estimates for the Channel Islands.
Table 7: Nights spent abroad by UK residents includes cruises allocated to 'Other Areas' (see note 29 under 'sample methodology').
Table 11: Spending by overseas residents by area and purpose of visit. See notes 10, 11 and 12 under 'Definitions'.
Trippers who cross the Channel or the North Sea but do not alight from the boat.
Migrants and persons travelling overseas to take up prearranged employment, together with military/diplomatic personnel, merchant seamen and airline personnel on duty.
Overseas residents passing through the UK en route to other destinations (often known as transit passengers) but who do not stay overnight (however any spending whilst here is included in the figures for earnings).
P = Provisional,
R = Revised,
- = Not available or no sample,
0 = visits less than 500 or spending less than £50,000,
VFR = Visiting friends or relatives,
Please Note Due to rounding, constituent items in the tables may not add exactly to totals.
The figures relate to the number of completed visits, not the number of visitors. Anyone entering or leaving more than once in the same period is counted on each visit. The count of visits relates to UK residents returning to this country and to overseas residents leaving it.
Day-visits (that is trips that do not involve an overnight stay) abroad by UK residents as well as day trips to the UK by overseas residents are included in the figures for visits and expenditure. Details of such visits are shown separately in Tables 8-11 and 19-22 under the heading 'day visits'.Please note they do not cover day visits to or from the Irish Republic across the land border, although they are included in total visits. For overseas residents in transit through the UK see note 9.
An overseas visitor means a person who, being permanently resident in a country outside the United Kingdom, visits the UK for a period of less than 12 months. UK citizens resident overseas for 12 months or more coming home on leave are included in this category. Visits abroad are visits for a period of less than 12 months by people permanently resident in the UK (who may be of foreign nationality.
When a resident of the UK has visited more than one country the entire visit, expenditure and stay are allocated to the country stayed in for the longest time.
Visits for miscellaneous purposes include those for study; to attend sporting events; for shopping; health; religious; or for other purposes; together with visits for more than one purpose when none predominates (for example visits both on business and on holiday). Overseas visitors staying overnight in the UK en route to other destinations are also included in miscellaneous purposes.
Estimates relating to tourist flows across the land bord er between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland are, for convenience, included in the figures for sea. Where not shown separately, flows through the Channel Tunnel are also included under the figures for sea.
Regional Analysis (Table 13). The information relating to visitors using the land border from the Irish Republic is not collected and so is excluded from the table. Also excluded (except from the 'Total' section) are all visits that did not include an overnight stay in the UK. Visits by overseas residents to Northern Ireland although included in the 'total' column are not separately analysed. More than one region can be visited by an individual whilst in the United Kingdom and so the total of the visits to all regions will therefore sometimes be greater than the total number of visits to the UK.
Adjustments are made to the reported cost of an inclusive tour so that only the amount earned by the country of visit (for example accommodation costs, car hire, etc.) is included. This estimate is then added to an individual's spending to give the total spending in the country of visit (see also note 9).
Length of stay for UK residents cover the time spent, including the journey outside the UK, whilst for overseas residents it refers to the time spent within the UK.
Earnings and expenditure figures cover the same categories of travellers as do the number of visits, except that in addition the earnings figures include the expenditure by same day transit passengers , and the foreign exchange earnings and expenditure due to travel relating to the Channel Islands. They exclude payments for air, sea and rail travel to and from the UK. For any traveller on an inclusive tour an estimate of the return fare is deducted from the total tour price.
Earnings do not include the personal export of cars that have been purchased in the United Kingdom by overseas residents. Similarly spending excludes the personal import of cars by UK residents.
An estimate for purchases by overseas visitors at airport duty free shops is included in the figures for earnings. Such purchases on British carriers are still excluded.
North America: Canada (including Greenland and St Pierre at Miquelon), USA (including Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands).
Europe: All countries listed under EU27 plus other central and eastern Europe; North Cyprus; Gibraltar; Iceland (including Faroe Islands); Norway; Switzerland (including Liechtenstein); Turkey; the former USSR; and the states of former Yugoslavia.
EU15: Austria; Belgium; Denmark; France (including Monaco); Finland; Germany; Greece; Irish Republic; Italy (including San Marino and Vatican City); Luxembourg; Netherlands; Portugal (including Azores and Madeira); Spain (including Canary Islands; and the Balearic Islands and Andorra); and Sweden.
EU25 As for EU15 plus Cyprus (see * below); Czech Republic; Estonia; Hungary; Latvia; Lithuania; Malta; Poland; Slovakia; and Slovenia. Only the south of Cyprus is a member of the EU, but the IPS is unable to separate North and South Cyprus for the period before May 2004, and so all of Cyprus is included in the EU25 section until May 2004. From May 2004 only southern Cyprus is included in the EU25 figures. Where Cyprus is shown separately in a table, the figures relate to the whole island.
EU27: As for EU25 plus Bulgaria and Romania.
North Africa: Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Sudan.
Other Middle East: Bahrain; Iran; Iraq; Jordan; Kuwait; Lebanon; Oman; Qatar; Saudi Arabia; Syria; and the Yemen.
Central and South America: Argentina; Belize; Bolivia; British Antarctica; Brazil; Chile; Colombia; Costa Rica; Ecuador; El Salvador; the Falkland Islands; French Guiana; Guatemala; Guyana; Honduras; Nicaragua; Panama (including Canal Zone); Paraguay; Peru; Surinam; Uruguay; and Venezuela.
Other Caribbean: Antigua; Bahamas; Bermuda; British Virgin Islands; Cayman Islands; Cuba; Dominica; the Dominican Republic; Grenada; Haiti; Martinique; Montserrat; St Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla; St. Lucia; St. Vincent and the Grenadines; Trinidad and Tobago; Turks and the Caicos Islands.
The International Passenger Survey (IPS) produces estimates that are based on interviews with a stratified random sample of passengers entering and leaving the UK on the principle air, tunnel and sea routes. The main features of the stratification are: mode of transport (that is air, tunnel or sea), port and time of day.
The frequency of sampling within each stratum depends mainly on the variation of tourist expenditure and on the volume of migrants, for which the survey is also used to collect statistics. Travellers passing through passport control are randomly selected for interview and in all some 304,000 interviews were conducted in 2011. Only interviews carried out at the end of a visit are used to generate estimates of expenditure and stay. Of these interviews around 52,000 provided the published information on foreign visitors to the UK and around 67,000 were used for the estimate of UK residents travelling abroad. The interviews were conducted on a purely voluntary and anonymous basis.
Despite the introduction in April 1999 of interviewing on air and sea routes to and from the Irish Republic (see notes 4 and 5 of the 'Background Notes: Accuracy of the results' section) the results from the IPS are still supplemented with estimates of travel between UK and the Irish Republic over the land border where no IPS interviewing takes place. Estimates for travel by land are based on information provided by the Central Statistics Office of the Irish Republic. Estimates of earnings and expenditure are also supplemented with figures from the Economic Advisor's Office of the States of Jersey, who provide information about the Channel Islands.
Over 95 per cent of passengers entering and leaving the UK (excluding those travelling by land to and from the Irish Republic) travel on routes covered by the survey. The remainder are either passengers travelling at night when interviewing is suspended, or on those routes too small in volume to be covered. For those passengers, estimates are made and input into the main results of the survey.
At the major airports a sample of half days is taken and a fixed proportion of passengers are interviewed, whilst the smaller airports are sampled occasionally with the number of visits depending on the number of international passengers.
On the sea routes either particular cross-channel sailings are sampled and a fixed proportion of passengers interviewed on board, or a sample of days is taken and the passengers interviewed on the quay side.
In all, approximately 304,000 travellers (0.2 per cent of the total travellers) were interviewed in 2011; this proportion varies from port to port.
UK residents who left a cruise boat at a foreign port and returned home on a scheduled air or sea service (e.g. fly-cruises) are included in the IPS. Information on the number of passengers on cruises finishing in the UK is estimated in terms of the number of visits, length of stay and expenditure. These estimates are added to the cruise data collected from the IPS and included under the headings for 'other areas', 'holiday', and 'sea'. In 2010 a review took place of the methodology used to estimate the number of such visits. This review has led to more accurate methodology for estimating these visits and has resulted in an annual increase from the approximately 20 thousand to 200 thousand of such visits. The new estimates have been included in both publication and Travel Trends 2010 in late July 2011.
A complex weighting procedure is used in the survey results taking account of passengers movement statistics produced by the BAA plc and the Civil Aviation Authority for air traffic by the Department for Transport for sea traffic. For Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester allowances are made for passengers in transit who do not pass through passport control and hence do not cross the IPS counting line.
For further information please read the IPS Methodology Report.
As the information is collected by a sample survey, the estimates of the number of visits, length of stay and expenditure are subject to a sampling error. Generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particular estimate, the smaller its sampling error. However, as the intensity of the sampling varies at each port, figures of a similar magnitude will not necessarily have the same percentage sampling error.
The IPS has a clustered sample design. The full effects of this complex sample design upon each of the main estimates is calculated, and it is these calculated 'complex' sampling errors which are quoted.
The sampling errors of IPS estimates are given in terms of an interval in to which there are 19 chances out of 20 that the true figure will fall. This is known as a 95 per cent confidence interval; the estimate plus or minus the percentage quoted gives the appropriate interval.
Traffic at all airports and seaports is monitored regularly to assess if they should be included in the IPS sample. As a consequence Liverpool and Prestwick airports were introduced into the sample at the beginning of 2005. Between 2000 and 2004, traffic through Liverpool had quadrupled to 'over two and a half million' international passengers, while at Prestwick there was a fivefold increase to nearly 'one and a half million' passengers over the same period. The inclusion of these ports in the IPS sample were shown to cause a discontinuity in regional results and methodology was modified to account for this. Similarly in early 2008 each of Doncaster, Bournemouth, Southampton and Heathrow Terminal 5 were added to the sample and in 2009 Aberdeen and Belfast International airports were added.
From January 2009 certain elements of the IPS have been revised to address recommendations put forward by the Interdepartmental Task Force on Migration Statistics, 2006. The changes involve revision to sample design, weighting and imputation methodology. These changes resulted in some discontinuity in estimates. An analysis was conducted and published in 2009. More details are available from the IPS team.
The model used to produce seasonal adjustment estimates is reviewed approximately every two years. A review was conducted in late 2009 and the new model was used for the first time to produce the seasonally adjusted estimates used in the December 2009 'Statistical Bulletin' publication. Details of the seasonal adjustment model can be obtained from the IPS team using the contact details attached.
Statistical series are affected by special events. However, as explained in ONS's special events policy, it is not possible to make an estimate of the effect of particular events only on the basis of information collected in those series. However, ONS publishes a special events calendar which may help the reader put some context on reported estimates.
There have been a number of special events in 2012. The Diamond Jubilee celebrations saw changes to the normal pattern of Bank holidays in May and June, and an additional day's holiday in June; all of these changes affected estimates for quarter 2 of 2012, and an article gave more information on how estimates were compiled over this period. The Olympics took place from 27 July to 12 August 2012 (with a few events starting on 25 July), and Paralympics from 29 August to 9 September. The direct effect of the Olympics and Paralympics were reflected in the estimates for the months of quarter 3 of 2012. More details of how certain series were expected to be affected were given in an Information Note. A detailed article (229 Kb Pdf) describing possible effects on GDP and comparing with earlier Olympic Games was published by ONS on 25 October. Wider effects, for example the presence of the Olympics influencing the number of non-Olympic tourist visits, may of course have affected any of the summer months.
The result of these special events in 2012 has been to introduce additional uncertainty in the interpretation of movements between Q2 and Q3 and between Q3 and Q4. Users should therefore consider all information available when interpreting the statistics.
IPS data for the years 1993 onwards are available online from www.ons.gov.uk. Travelpac is a free and simple to use dataset for those wishing to make further analyses of IPS data. It contains files provided in Excel and SPSS formats. More details can be found at Travelpac, Q3 2012 (1.21 Mb ZIP) .
These are published in the Overseas Travel and Tourism Statistical Bulletin available from:
Office for National Statistics, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport, NP10 8XG.
Telephone: +44 (0)1633 455286 or from the ONS website at www.ons.gov.uk.
Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: firstname.lastname@example.org