Statistical bulletin: Overseas Travel and Tourism, January 2013

Key points

• Visits to the UK by overseas residents fell by 1% in January. This follows two months of strong visit numbers in November and December 2012.
• Earnings from visits remained strong, and in the period November 2012 to January 2013 earnings were 8% higher compared with a year earlier.
• Visits abroad were up 6% in January 2013 compared with January 2012. However, the January 2012 figure was weak.
• Expenditure abroad is up 2% in the period November 2012 to January 2013 compared with a year earlier.
• Longer term, total travel and tourism numbers are generally stable. Visits to the UK grew 1% in the 12 months to January 2013 compared with a year earlier and visits abroad were unchanged.

Announcement: Travel Trends 2012

In addition to the monthly Statistical Bulletins, ONS publishes both quarterly and annual Overseas Travel and Tourism estimates.

Historically:

• provisional estimates for Quarter 4 are published in April each year,

• and these provisional estimates are subsequently revised to produce final full-year estimates, in July (via the publication Travel Trends).

In response to stated user desire to have estimates available earlier, ONS has taken steps to be able to produce end of year estimates in April. As a result in 2013, ONS will:

• Publish Travel Trends 2012, containing final 2012 estimates in April rather than July.

• Not publish the provisional Quarter 4 estimates, originally planned for publication on 11 April.

About the estimates

• Estimates contained in this bulletin are produced from responses provided by international passengers arriving in and departing from the UK, sampled on the International Passenger Survey (127.8 Kb Pdf) conducted by ONS.

• The sample profile and responses are calibrated to international passenger traffic for the reporting period.

• Estimates are based on interviews conducted when passengers end their visit. Therefore any visits commencing in the reported month but not completed until later are not included in estimates for the reported month.

• Spending associated with visits includes anything spent before, during and after the trip.

• Estimates are subject to sampling error, and confidence intervals are provided to help readers interpret the estimates (see background note 4 and Table 3). Further guidance is provided about the quality of Overseas Travel and Tourism estimates (404.8 Kb Pdf) .

Key trends in figures and charts

Table 1: Key visit and spending estimates for overseas residents' visits to the UK in 2013

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table 2: Key visit and spending estimates for UK residents' visits abroad in 2013

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Figure 1: Overseas residents' visits to the UK and UK residents' visits abroad (seasonally adjusted)

Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics

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Figure 2: Spending by overseas residents in the UK and spending by UK residents overseas by month (seasonally adjusted)

Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics

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Trends in visits to the UK by Overseas Residents (Reference tables 1,2,5)

• The number of visits to the UK by overseas residents in January 2013 was 2.2 million, 1% lower than the number in January 2012.

• The fall in visits in January followed strong visit numbers at the end of 2012. During the period November 2012 to January 2013, overseas residents made 7% more visits to the UK than in the corresponding period a year earlier and they spent 8% more on these visits.

• In the 12 months to January 2013 the number of visits to the UK rose 1% from a year earlier and earnings grew by 4%. Visits from North America were up 3% and from A12 countries (see 'Reference Tables Definitions') up 7%. Business trips grew 2% but holidays fell by 1%.

Figure 3: Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month (seasonally adjusted)

Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics

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Trends in visits abroad by UK Residents (Reference tables 3,4,5)

• The estimated number of visits abroad by UK residents in January 2013 was 3.4 million, 6% higher than in January 2012. It is noted that the January 2012 figure was lower than the trend in visit numbers at that time.

• During the period November 2012 to January 2013, UK residents made 2% more visits abroad than in the corresponding period a year earlier, and spent 2% more on these visits.

• In the 12 months to January 2013 the number of visits abroad by UK residents was unchanged in percentage terms from a year earlier, and expenditure on these visits grew by 3%. Visits to Europe rose by 1% while those to North America fell by 4% and to other countries fell by 3%. Visits to friends or relatives and for business both grew but holiday visits fell, by 1%.

Figure 4: UK residents' visits abroad by month (seasonally adjusted)

Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics

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Other Overseas Travel and Tourism releases

More detailed analysis of overseas travel and tourism trends are provided in the publications:

• Overseas Travel and Tourism Quarterly, latest publication Quarter 3 2012 published 10 January 2013. This publication provides more detailed analysis of visits and spending, isolating aspects such as countries of visit, mode of travel used, nationality of visitors, regions of the UK visited.

• Travel Trends, latest publication Travel Trends 2011 published July 2012, next publication Travel Trends 2012 to be published April 2013. This publication provides more detailed analysis of visits and spending, including analysis by demographics, towns in the UK visited and countries visited by residents of different parts of the UK.

• TravelPac (1.21 Mb ZIP) is a data set which allows users to conduct their own analysis of quarterly and annual data on key variables. The datasets are provided in SPSS and Excel.

Note that estimates are subject to revision between the Monthly Statistical Bulletin and the Quarterly publication and again when Travel Trends is published. Revisions result from more accurate passenger figures being made available to ONS.

Reference Tables Definitions

Abbreviations used in the tables:

 NA      ...not available

 SA      ...seasonally adjusted

 NSA    ...not seasonally adjusted

 †        ...point of earliest revision

 1        ...estimate (rounded to nearest 10,000 visits or £5 million)

Geographical areas:

• North America:

Canada (including Greenland and St Pierre et Miquelon), USA (including Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands).

• Europe:

All countries listed under EU27 plus other central & Eastern Europe, North Cyprus, Gibraltar, Iceland (including Faroe Islands), Norway, Switzerland (including Liechtenstein), Turkey, the former USSR and the states of former Yugoslavia

• EU15:

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France (including Monaco), Finland, Germany, Greece, Irish Republic, Italy (including San Marino and Vatican City), Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal (including Azores and Madeira), Spain (including Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands and Andorra) and Sweden.

• EU25:

As for EU15 plus, Cyprus*, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

• EU27:

As for EU25 plus, Bulgaria and Romania.

• A12:

All countries included in EU27 but not included in EU15.

*Only the south of Cyprus is a member of the EU but the IPS is unable to separate North and South Cyprus for the period before May 2004 and so all of Cyprus is included in the EU27 section until May 2004. From May 2004, only southern Cyprus is included in the EU27 figures.

Purpose groupings:

Holiday: Holiday/pleasure, to play amateur sport, cruise, Olympics/Paralympics - to watch.

Business: Business, Olympics/Paralympics - to work.

Visit friends or relatives: Visit family, visit friends.

Miscellaneous: Other reasons (including 'Olympics - participate'), or cases where the respondent is not able to give a single purpose as the main reason for visit.

People migrating (to or from the UK) or travelling as crew of aircraft, ships or trains are excluded from analysis in this publication.

Background notes

1. The estimates contained in this publication focus on travel and tourism with analysis based on visits (for any purpose) of less than 12 months duration by:

   a) overseas residents to the UK, and

   b) UK residents abroad

   Estimates of the number and profile of visits to the UK by overseas residents are drawn from interviews conducted on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) with overseas residents as they leave the UK at the end of their visit. Visits abroad by UK residents are drawn from interviews conducted UK residents as they return to the UK at the end of their visit abroad. In the case of UK residents, if more than one country was visited on a trip, the country recorded as visited in ONS's Overseas Travel and Tourism publications is the country that was visited for the longest period.

   Note that, although data by the International Passenger Survey (IPS) also feeds into the calculation of migration statistics, this report does not provide any information relating to International migration.

2. Figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in light of (a) more accurate data on passenger figures becoming available at the end of each quarter and (b) additional passenger data obtained at the end of each year.

3. The main series are seasonally adjusted. This aids interpretation by identifying seasonal patterns and calendar effects and removing them from the unadjusted data. The resulting figures give a more accurate indication of underlying movements in the series.

4. The estimates produced from the IPS are subject to sampling errors that result because not every traveller to the UK is interviewed on the survey. Sampling errors are determined both by the sample design and by the sample size - generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particular estimate, the proportionately lower its sampling error. The survey sample size is approximately 25,000 per month.

   Accuracy of the estimates is expressed in terms of Confidence intervals. The confidence interval is a range within which the true value of a proportion lies with known probability. For example, the 95% confidence interval represents the range into which there are 19 chances out of 20 that the true figure would fall had all passengers been sampled. This is obtained as +/- 1.96 the standard error.

   Table 3: Confidence Intervals relating to Overseas Travel and Tourism estimates in January 2013

   January 2013 monthly estimates	Estimate	Relative 95% Confidence Interval (+/- % the estimate)
   Visits to UK by overseas residents (000s)	2,220	7.8
   Earnings from visits to UK (£ million)	1,240	9.4
   Visits abroad by UK residents (000s)	3,440	4.7
   Expenditure on visits abroad (£ million)	2,040	7.6

   Table source: Office for National Statistics

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   Confidence intervals for quarterly and annual estimates are provided in the relevant Overseas Travel and Tourism publications published by ONS.

5. One indication of the reliability of the key indicators in this release can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. The table below records the size and pattern of revisions which have occurred over the last five years to the following key seasonally adjusted estimates:

   • The number of visits by overseas residents to the UK (GMAT)

   • The number of visits abroad by UK residents (GMAX)

   • Earnings made from overseas residents in the UK (GMAZ) and

   • Expenditure abroad by UK residents (GMBB) 

   Table 4: Revisions over the last five years

   		Revisions between first publications and estimates three years later
   	Value in the latest period (2012 Q4)	Averages over the last five years (bias)	Average over the last five years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
   GMAT	8,010	38.00	148.00
   GMAX	14,090	181.50	277.50
   GMAZ	4,550	*71.25	*108.75
   GMBB	8,030	162.50	169.50

   Table source: Office for National Statistics

   Table notes:

   1. Units: GMAT and GMAX in thousands, GMAZ and GMBB in £million.
   2. A statistical test has been applied to find out if the mean revision to each key indicator is statistically different from zero. An asterisk (*) indicates where the mean revision has been significantly different from zero.

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   Spreadsheets giving revisions triangles (real time databases) of estimates for the period illustrated in the table, and calculations behind the averages shown, are available in the data section of this publication.

   Further information on the ONS revisions policy.

6. Statistical series are affected by special events. However, as explained in ONS's special events policy, it is not possible to make an estimate of the effect of particular events only on the basis of information collected in those series. However, ONS publishes a special events calendar which may help the reader put some context on reported estimates.

   There have been a number of special events in 2012. The Diamond Jubilee celebrations saw changes to the normal pattern of Bank holidays in May and June, and an additional day's holiday in June; all of these changes affected estimates for quarter 2 of 2012, and an article gave more information on how the estimates were compiled over this period. The Olympics took place from 27 July to 12 August 2012 (with a few events starting on 25 July), and the Paralympics from 29 August to 9 September. The direct effect of the Olympics and Paralympics was reflected in the estimates for the months of quarter 3 of 2012. More details of how certain series were expected to be affected were given in an Information Note. A detailed article describing possible effects on GDP and comparing with earlier Olympic Games was published by ONS on 25 October. Wider effects, for example the presence of the Olympics influencing the number of non-Olympics tourist visits, may of course have affected any of the summer months.

   The result of these special events in 2012 has been to introduce additional uncertainty in the interpretation of movements between Q2 and Q3 and between Q3 and Q4. Users should therefore consider all the information available when interpreting the statistics.

7. Constituent items in the tables may not add exactly to totals due to rounding.

8. The information provided to the ONS by respondents is treated as strictly confidential as directed by the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. It is used to produce statistics that will not identify any individuals.

9. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

10. Next publication: 11 April 2013

    General IPS queries:

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