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Chapter 4: Mortality, 2012-based NPP Reference Volume This product is designated as National Statistics

Released: 28 March 2014 Download PDF

Introduction

Throughout the 20th century and into this century, the UK has experienced a continuation of the pattern of falling mortality rates that began in the 19th century. During this time there has been a change from a pattern of high infant and child mortality driven by the prevalence of acute and infectious diseases, to a new pattern in which adult mortality predominates and chronic and degenerative diseases are the most common causes of death.1 The pattern has been broadly similar in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.2,3,4

The 2012-based principal projection assumes that mortality rates will continue to improve into the future to an annual target rate of improvement from 2037 of 1.2% for most ages. This target rate was based on the examination of past rates of improvement and expert advice. The average annual rate of improvement over the last hundred years was around 1.1% for males and 1.2% for females.

This chapter summarises past trends in mortality and life expectancy and discusses the assumptions about future mortality made for the 2012-based population projections.

Future Prospects for Life Expectancy

Since the 1980s the period expectation of life at birth in the UK for females has increased by about 1.9 years per decade, while male life expectancy has increased by around 2.6 years per decade. However, there are diverse opinions amongst demographers as to the level of longevity that might reasonably be expected in the future.9,10,11,12 One can point to Japan, where the period expectation of life at birth in 2012 was about 86.4 years for females and 79.9 years for males,13 and to other countries in Europe, such as Italy, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, which also currently have higher period expectations of life at birth than the UK for both males and females.14 There is also the possibility of lower incidences of cancer, heart disease and strokes through changes in lifestyle and, through medical advances, greater control of these when they do occur. In particular, mortality rates for heart disease and strokes have fallen quite rapidly and steadily over the 1990s for males and females aged 40 to 64 and to a lesser extent for older men and women.15 Since 2000, the falls in mortality rates from these causes have continued at around the same pace for the 40–64 age-group and have accelerated for older men and women (aged 65 and over). Mortality rates from circulatory diseases had fallen to similar levels as the all cancers mortality rate by 2008. In the future changes in mortality rates from causes other than circulatory diseases will have an increasingly greater effect on the rates of future mortality improvements.

On the other hand some demographers believe that, despite the possibility of advances in medical practices and of encouraging healthy lifestyles, a law of diminishing returns will apply to mortality rate reductions at advanced ages, partly because no more than a minority of the population will adopt truly healthy lifestyles. It is also possible that new diseases, or the re-emergence of existing diseases such as tuberculosis, may serve to temper future improvements in mortality.

Methodology and Derivation of UK Base Mortality Rates

When formulating the mortality assumptions for population projections the focus is on mortality rates and annual percentage change in the mortality rates by age and year rather than life expectancy. The annual percentage changes are also referred to as rates of improvement in mortality (or mortality improvements) because at most ages in most years mortality rates have improved. In this chapter, the assumptions for the projections are given in the form of central mortality rates (mx). The difference between these and the probabilities of dying (qx) used to carry out the actual projections is described in Chapter 1. The latter figures can be accessed via the NPP interactive table download tool by selecting the assumed age specific mortality rates.

Age-specific mortality rates were calculated for each year using deaths data and mid-year population estimates for 1961 to 2011 (deaths data for 2012 did not become available until after the mortality assumptions for these projections were finalised). Population estimates by age for those aged 90 and over from 1979 onwards (and retrospective estimates for earlier years, back to when these persons were aged 80) were calculated using the Kannisto-Thatcher survivor ratio method which is a modified form of the method of extinct generations.16 The retrospective estimates to age 80 have been found to give more reliable results than using the official population estimates made at the time.

A p-spline model was then applied to the resulting crude mortality rates to produce a fitted, smoothed surface of mortality rates to the historical data for each gender.17 This was the same approach as used for the 2010-based national population projections. Comparisons of the annual percentage change in the smoothed mortality rates using different ranges of calendar years and ages found that the addition of an extra year's data or extending the age range can result in quite different rates of mortality improvement at some ages for the most recent years in the data used (this is often termed 'edge effects'). In particular, when an extra year's data are added improvements calculated for the final and penultimate years of the data range tend to be altered more than those for earlier years, which were usually not altered to a significant degree.

As a result of these analyses, smoothed mortality rates were calculated using data for years 1961 to 2011 and age ranges 0 to 100 for males and 0 to 105 for females. Percentage changes in mortality were then calculated by age for the year 2009 using the smoothed mortality rates for 2008 and 2009. These rates of percentage change for 2009 were then projected forward to 2012 by assuming that the same rates of change applied in 2010, 2011 and 2012. This projection was carried out by year of age (period) for those born in 1960 and later and by year of birth (cohort) for those born before 1960. Improvement rates (percentage change) in 2012 for ages where this methodology did not give an assumed rate were obtained by interpolation between the nearest ages where there were assumed rates.

Assumed age specific base mortality rates for 2012 were obtained by applying the resulting assumed rates of improvement to the smoothed age-specific mortality rates produced for 2009.

Base year mortality rates for individual countries

Mortality rates for the base year 2012 were initially calculated for the UK. Mortality rates for 2012 for the four individual countries of the UK were then obtained by adjusting the UK mortality rates at each age in proportion to the particular country's mortality experience relative to the UK mortality experience at that age for the three years 2009 to 2011. The resulting base year mortality rates for individual countries are shown for selected ages in Table 4-1. The country specific mortality improvement rates described later in this chapter were then applied to the projected base mortality rates for 2012 for each country to obtain the projected mortality rates for future years.

Table 4-1: Assumed base year mortality rates (mx) per 100,000 population, by selected ages, 2012

Males Females
Age England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland
0 469 443 429 513 381 344 340 408
2 14 11 13 16 13 12 12 13
12 10 12 8 11 8 9 8 9
22 53 66 79 101 22 23 32 30
32 81 112 149 111 44 50 70 40
42 175 204 268 203 103 108 139 121
52 366 399 490 418 252 282 333 289
62 914 971 1,179 999 600 665 790 659
72 2,440 2,643 3,103 2,668 1,571 1,737 2,058 1,745
82 7,143 7,539 8,374 7,653 5,137 5,499 6,177 5,418
92 21,288 22,309 21,359 22,786 17,251 17,963 18,488 18,392
102 51,832 51,832 51,832 51,832 44,793 45,014 47,239 46,122

Table source: Office for National Statistics

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Effect of Assumptions

The implications of these assumptions in terms of the period expectation of life at birth and at age 65 are shown in Figure 4-6 and Figure 4-7 respectively.

Figure 4-6: Actual and projected period expectation of life at birth according to mortality rates for given year, 1981–2087, United Kingdom

Figure 4-6: Actual and projected period expectation of life at birth according to mortality rates for given year, 1981–2087, United Kingdom
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Scottish figures have not been revised to take account of the 2011 Census.

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Figure 4-7: Actual and projected period expectation of life at age 65 according to mortality rates for given year, 1981–2087 United Kingdom

Figure 4-7: Actual and projected period expectation of life at age 65 according to mortality rates for given year, 1981–2087 United Kingdom
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Scottish figures have not been revised to take account of the 2011 Census.

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In 2037, period expectation of life at birth for the UK is around 0.4 years higher for males and 0.1 years higher for females compared to the previous projections. These differences are mainly due to the age-specific mortality rates for 2012 being assumed to be lower at many ages below 70 and the rates of mortality improvement between 2012 and 2013 assumed to be higher at many ages below 90 compared to those projected for the same period in the 2010-based projections. 

Expectation of Life for Cohorts

So far in this report, expectations of life have mainly been calculated on the basis of the mortality rates for a particular calendar year (period life expectancies). In many contexts it is more meaningful to calculate the average life expectancy which allows for future known or assumed changes in mortality rates (referred to as cohort life expectancy). Further information on the difference between period and cohort life expectancies is available on the ONS website 21. Table 4-4 shows projected period and cohort expectations of life at selected ages for four different years.

Table 4-4 shows that the projected period expectation of life at birth for a male in the UK was 79.0 years on the basis of the mortality rates for 2012. However, taking into account assumed mortality improvements in later years, that is cohort life expectancy, a male born in that year would be expected to live for 90.6 years. Similarly, the average man aged 65 in 2012 would live for a further 18.3 years based on the mortality rates for 2012 (period). However, taking account of the assumed further mortality improvement after 2012 (cohort), he would actually be expected to live for a further 21.2 years.

Table 4-4: Period and cohort expectation of life by selected ages, United Kingdom, for the years 2012, 2013, 2023, 2033 and 2037

Males Females
2012 2013 2023 2033 2037 2012 2013 2023 2033 2037
Period expectation of life
0 79.0 79.0 81.8 83.5 84.1 82.7 82.8 85.2 86.8 87.3
15 64.5 64.5 67.2 68.9 69.4 68.1 68.2 70.6 72.1 72.6
60 22.3 22.6 24.8 26.2 26.6 25.0 25.2 27.3 28.7 29.1
65 18.3 18.5 20.6 21.9 22.3 20.7 21.0 23.0 24.3 24.7
75 11.2 11.4 13.2 14.3 14.6 12.9 13.1 14.9 16.1 16.5
85 5.8 5.9 7.2 8.1 8.4 6.7 6.9 8.3 9.3 9.5
Cohort expectation of life
0 90.6 90.7 92.2 93.7 94.3 93.9 94.0 95.4 96.8 97.3
15 73.9 74.1 75.5 77.0 77.5 77.3 77.5 78.8 80.1 80.7
60 25.8 25.9 27.2 28.4 28.9 28.7 28.8 30.0 31.2 31.6
65 21.2 21.4 22.6 23.7 24.1 23.9 24.0 25.2 26.3 26.7
75 12.9 13.1 14.3 15.2 15.6 15.0 15.1 16.3 17.2 17.6
85   6.3 6.5 7.8 8.6 8.8 7.4 7.6 9.0 9.8 10.0

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Scottish figures have not been revised to take account of the 2011 Census.

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Figure 4-8 shows the cohort expectation of life at birth for England and Wales for generations born from 1850 to 2050 and Figure 4-9 shows the cohort expectation of life at age 65 for those reaching age 65 in 1850 to 2050 based on the actual mortality rates experienced in the past or assumed for the future.

About half of the increase in cohort life expectancies at birth between generations born in 1850 and 1945 was due to the reduction in infant and child mortality to very low levels. Subsequent generations have benefited particularly from the almost complete elimination of deaths from acute and infectious diseases. Figure 4-8 illustrates the point that, while current reductions in mortality rates at the older ages will continue to extend the average lifetime, once this reaches around 78 years for males and 83 years for females (that is, for men and women born in 1950), further progress is likely to be much slower. The great majority of deaths will then be attributable to chronic and degenerative diseases.

Figure 4-8: Cohort expectation of life at birth according to historic and projected mortality rates, for persons born from 1850 to 2050, England & Wales

Figure 4-8: Cohort expectation of life at birth according to historic and projected mortality rates, for persons born from 1850 to 2050, England & Wales
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Life expectancy figures are not available for the UK before 1951; for long historic trends England & Wales data are used.

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Figure 4-9: Cohort expectation of life at age 65 according to historic and projected mortality rates, for persons who reach age 65 in the years 1850 to 2050, England & Wales

Figure 4-9: Cohort expectation of life at age 65 according to historic and projected mortality rates, for persons who reach age 65 in the years 1850 to 2050, England & Wales
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Life expectancy figures are not available for the UK before 1951; for long historic trends England & Wales data are used.
  2. The 'blip' in the trend lines in 1984 relates to the birth cohorts of 1918-1920, where the births were not evenly distributed throughout the year.

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While the cohort expectation of life at age 65 for females has been increasing at a fairly steady rate since the 1930s, the cohort expectation of life at age 65 for males showed relatively little increase between 1930 and 1970 after which it began to increase more rapidly than for females. As discussed earlier, a partial explanation for this may be the different historical patterns in cigarette smoking between men and women. This is likely to have delayed mortality rates for older males falling to the levels they would have reached had they followed the improvements in female mortality rates experienced during the 1950s and 1960s. 

Constituent Countries of the UK

The projected mortality rates and expectations of life vary between countries because of the differing starting mortality rates and, for Scotland, the different rates of mortality improvement at some ages, as discussed earlier. The resulting life expectancies are shown in Table 4-5; of the four countries, England shows the highest life expectancy and Scotland the lowest.

Table 4-5 also shows the comparable life expectancies from the 2010-based projections. The 2012-based period expectations of life at birth are a little higher for males and broadly similar for females compared to the 2010-based projections over the period 2012 to 2037 for all the constituent countries. In 2037, period expectations of life at birth for females are projected to be very similar with only differences of 0.1 year in England, Scotland and Wales. The differences in 2037 are larger for males with period life expectancies at birth around 0.8 years higher in Scotland, 0.6 years higher in Northern Ireland and 0.4 years higher in the UK, England and Wales.

Cohort life expectancies at birth for both males and females are projected to be slightly higher than in the previous projections for each country of the UK for all years except for English males and females and Welsh males. In England cohort life expectancy at birth in the 2012-based projections is broadly similar or slightly lower than in the 2010-based projections. Cohort life expectancy for Welsh males is higher in the 2012-based projections than the 2010-based projections in the early years of the projections but is 0.2 years lower by 2037.

Table 4-5: Period and cohort expectation of life at birth for the years 2012, 2013, 2023, 2033 and 2037, 2012-based and 2010-based projections

Years
2012 2013 2023 2033 2037
Period expectation of life at birth
Males
England 79.3 79.2 79.4 79.5 82.1 81.8 83.8 83.4 84.4 84.0
Wales 78.3 78.3 78.4 78.6 81.4 80.9 83.1 82.6 83.6 83.2
Scotland 76.8 76.5 76.9 76.7 79.6 78.9 81.4 80.6 82.0 81.2
Northern Ireland 78.1 77.9 78.2 78.2 81.0 80.5 82.8 82.1 83.3 82.7
United Kingdom 79.0 78.9 79.0 79.2 81.8 81.4 83.5 83.1 84.1 83.7
Females
England 82.9 83.0 83.1 83.3 85.5 85.4 87.1 87.0 87.6 87.5
Wales 82.1 82.4 82.3 82.6 84.9 84.7 86.5 86.4 87.0 86.9
Scotland 80.8 81.0 80.9 81.2 83.4 83.2 85.0 84.9 85.5 85.4
Northern Ireland 82.3 82.4 82.3 82.7 84.8 84.8 86.3 86.4 86.9 86.9
United Kingdom 82.7 82.8 82.8 83.0 85.2 85.1 86.8 86.7 87.3 87.3
Cohort expectation of life at birth
Males
England 90.8 90.8 91.0 90.9 92.5 92.5 93.9 94.1 94.5 94.7
Wales 90.0 89.3 90.2 89.5 91.6 91.0 92.7 92.6 93.0 93.2
Scotland 88.6 87.3 88.7 87.5 90.4 89.1 92.0 90.8 92.6 91.4
Northern Ireland 89.9 88.6 90.0 88.8 91.5 90.3 93.1 91.9 93.7 92.5
United Kingdom 90.6 89.8 90.7 89.9 92.2 91.5 93.7 93.0 94.3 93.6
Females
England 94.1 94.1 94.2 94.3 95.6 95.7 97.0 97.1 97.5 97.6
Wales 93.5 92.8 93.7 93.0 95.1 94.4 96.5 95.7 97.0 96.3
Scotland 92.2 91.4 92.3 91.6 93.8 93.0 95.2 94.5 95.8 95.0
Northern Ireland 93.4 92.8 93.5 92.9 94.9 94.3 96.3 95.7 96.9 96.2
United Kingdom   93.9 93.2 94.0 93.3 95.4 94.7 96.8 96.1 97.3 96.6

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Corresponding results from the 2010-based projections are shown in italics.

  2. Scottish figures have not been revised to take account of the 2011 Census.

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Mortality differences between males and females

In common with other Northern European countries,1 the difference in period life expectancy at birth for females over males rose in the UK during the period 1900 to 1970, before declining in more recent years. In the UK the differential has fallen from 6.0 years in 1980 to 3.7 years in 2012; it is projected to fall to about 3.3 years by 2037. In contrast, although the difference in period life expectancy at age 65 for females over males fell from the late 1980s to 2.4 years in 2012 it is projected to remain broadly the same in 2037.

The Changing Life Table

Figures 4-10 and 4-11 illustrate how the survival curve, which shows the proportion of those born in a given year who survive to each age, is getting progressively more rectangular in shape as more deaths occur at advanced ages. The charts are based on the average of male and female mortality in England and Wales. In Figure 4-10, the survival curves are calculated on a period basis and show the percentages who would survive to successive ages if they experienced the mortality rates of the year shown with no allowance for known or projected changes in mortality rates for the years thereafter. The first, least rectangular, curve represents the life table according to the mortality rates of the year 1851 and successive curves are given at 20 year intervals, with the uppermost being the projected life table for the year 2031. From this chart it can be seen that the median age at death, that is, the age to which half of those born survive, was about 46 on the basis of the mortality rates of 1851; this is projected to increase to about age 88 by the year 2031.

It is clear from Figure 4-10 that recent improvements in period expectation of life at birth have been due primarily to increases in survival to older ages. However, the increase in the maximum age to which people can survive has been comparatively small. There is limited scope for further reduction in mortality rates in young and middle age. Any continuation of recent increases in expectation of life will only be achieved through major falls in mortality at older ages.

Figure 4-11 shows the survival curves calculated on a cohort basis, that is, allowing for known and projected future changes in mortality after the cohort’s year of birth. Since mortality rates have, in general, been improving over past years and are projected to continue to improve, the survival curve for a given year in Figure 4-11 lies further to the right than that for the corresponding year in Figure 4-10. From this chart it can be seen that, on a cohort basis, the median age at death for those born in 1851 was actually about 48, this is projected to increase to about age 98 for those born in 2031.

Figure 4-10: Proportion of persons surviving (on a period basis) to successive ages, according to mortality rates experienced or projected, persons born 1851–2031, England & Wales

Figure 4-10: Proportion of persons surviving (on a period basis) to successive ages, according to mortality rates experienced or projected, persons born 1851–2031, England & Wales
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Life expectancy figures are not available for the UK before 1951; for long historic trends England & Wales data are used.

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Figure 4-11: Proportion of persons surviving (on a cohort basis) to successive ages, according to mortality rates experienced or projected, persons born 1851–2031, England & Wales

Figure 4-11: Proportion of persons surviving (on a cohort basis) to successive ages, according to mortality rates experienced or projected, persons born 1851–2031, England & Wales
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Life expectancy figures are not available for the UK before 1951; for long historic trends England & Wales data are used.

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Further details

Projected numbers of deaths and comparisons with the previous (2010-based) projections are discussed in Chapter 2 while Chapter 6 presents the results of variant projections based on alternative assumptions about future mortality. The detailed age specific rates assumed in the principal and variant projections for each country are given on the ONS website.  

Views on Future Levels of Mortality Improvements and Expectations of Life

Mortality projections prepared in other countries and by other agencies tend to be based largely on extrapolation of past trends either in mortality rates, rates of mortality improvement or in expectations of life. Expert opinion is often used to inform the assumptions made. It is therefore perhaps helpful to summarise some of the current arguments put forward by experts regarding future levels of mortality improvements and life expectancy, for the UK and for other developed countries.

For the UK, several factors have been identified amongst the likely drivers of future mortality change including the 'cohort effect', the 'ageing of mortality improvement' (where the ages at which the highest rates of improvement have occurred have been increasing over time), increased uncertainty at younger ages, changes in prevalence of cigarette smoking, the effects of other lifestyle changes, medical advances, possible increased resistance to antibiotics and the potential re-emergence of old diseases and climate change.

Appendix A in background and methodology reports a meeting of the National Population Projections Expert Advisory Group at which members were asked their views on the validity of a large range of arguments which might be thought likely to influence future mortality trends. In general the UK experts felt that the current high rates of mortality improvement were likely to continue into the future, although there was disagreement as to whether improvements would converge for males and females over time. It was felt that factors such as medical and bio-technological advances, more effective health care systems and better health information and changes in lifestyle behaviour which have occurred and have been identified as increasing the chances of longevity would continue. It was also felt that society would be able and willing to afford new treatments. However, there were factors which would work in the opposite direction and not all sectors of the population may choose to adopt lifestyle behaviours leading to increasing longevity. Smoking has been a large explanatory factor in changing mortality trends and it is possible to be reasonably confident about its effects. However, behavioural factors and their effects were harder to predict. For example, it was agreed that there would be an increase in obesity levels and that this would have an effect on morbidity but there was less agreement as to the subsequent impact of this on mortality and whether any increase might be reversible in the medium-term. Also, there might be a protective effect if some weight was gained at older ages. Some believed rising levels of obesity would lead to large downward influence on life expectancy but others believed the effect would be relatively small.

It was acknowledged that there are elements influencing mortality improvement in both directions and that these need to be considered together to determine if the overall effect will be positive or negative. However, it was felt that those factors tending to increase longevity would outweigh negative influences and that the increase in life expectancy over the next 25 years would be similar to that experienced over the preceding 25 years.

Oeppen and Vaupel12 have noted that record life expectancy (the highest life expectancy observed in any country of the world at any particular time) has increased at a steady pace over the last 160 years or so and suggest that this is likely to continue into the future. However, Olshansky11 and others have argued that there will be countervailing trends to the high rates of mortality improvements seen in recent years, driven by increasing levels of obesity, sedentary behaviours and other adverse lifestyle factors.

Given this disparity of views as to the likely future course of longevity, users of the projections can gain some insight into the sensitivity of their results to the various views on future mortality by considering the high and low life expectancy variants (see Chapter 6). However, these are intended to represent plausible alternative assumptions and are far from reflecting the extremes of thinking on future mortality.

References

  1. Caselli G (1994). Long-term Trends in European Mortality. OPCS Series SMPS no. 56. HMSO: London.

  2. Griffiths C and Brock A. (2003). Twentieth Century Mortality Trends in England and Wales. Health Statistics Quarterly 18, pp 5-17 available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hsq/health-statistics-quarterly/no--18--summer-2003/index.html

  3. General Register Office for Scotland (2013). Scotland’s Population 2012 – The Registrar General’s Annual review of Demographic Trends 158th Edition. GROS: Edinburgh. (The GROS is now the NRS) available at: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/at-a-glance/annrev/2012/

  4. Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2013). Registrar General Northern Ireland Annual Report 2012. NISRA: Belfast. Available at: http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/default.asp50.htm

  5. Gjonça A, Tomassini C, Toson B and Smallwood S (2005).Sex differences in mortality, a comparison of the UK and other developed countries. Health Statistics Quarterly 26, pp 6-16. Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hsq/health-statistics-quarterly/no--26--summer-2005/index.html

  6. Pampel F (2004). Forecasting sex differences in mortality in high income countries: the contributions of smoking prevalence. Working Paper Pop 2004-0002. Institute of Behavioural Science, University of Colorado. Available at: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol13/18/

  7. Office for National Statistics (1997). The Health of Adult Britain 1841-1994, Volume 1. The Stationery Office: London.

  8. Willets R. (1999). Mortality in the next millennium. Staple Inn Actuarial Society: London.

  9. Willets R et al. (2004). Longevity in the 21st Century. Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

  10. Tiljapurkar S, Li N and Boe C (2000). A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries. Nature Vol 405 pp 789-792. Available at: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v405/n6788/abs/405789a0.html

  11. Olshansky JS, Carnes BA and Désequelles A (2001). Prospects for Human Longevity. Science Vol 291 pp 1491-1492. Available at: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/291/5508/1491.short

  12. Oeppen J and Vaupel J (2002) Broken Limits to Life Expectancy. Science Vol 296 pp 1029-1031. Available at: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/296/5570/1029.summary

  13. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2012). Abridged Life Tables for Japan 2012. Statistics and Information Department: Tokyo http://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/database/db-hw/lifetb12/dl/lifetb12-01.pdf

  14. Life expectancy at birth by gender for EU countries: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tps00025&plugin=1Eurostat-Tables,Graphs and Maps_ Life expectancy at birth, by gender

  15. Office for National Statistics (2006). Griffiths C and Brock A, Chapter 13, Focus on Health. Palgrave Macmillan: Basingstoke.

  16. Thatcher AR, Kannisto V and Andreev K (2002). The survivor ratio method for estimating numbers at high ages. Demography 6. Available at: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/1/

  17. Currie D, Durban M and Eilers, P. H. C. (2004) Smoothing and forecasting mortality rates Statistical Modelling, 4, 279-298.

  18. Hickman M et al. (1999). Impact of HIV on adult (15-54) mortality in London 1979-96. Sex Transm Infect. Dec: 75(6), pp 385-8

  19. Brock A and Griffiths C (2003). Trends in mortality of young adults 15-44 in England and Wales, 1961-2001. Health Statistics Quarterly 19, pp 22-31. Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hsq/health-statistics-quarterly/no--19--autumn-2003/index.html

  20. Goldring S and Henretty N et al (2011) Mortality of the 'Golden Generation': what can the ONS Longtitudinal Study tell us? Population Trends 145, Autumn 2011, pp 1-30. Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/population-trends-rd/population-trends/no--145--autumn-2011/index.html

  21. Further information on the difference between period and cohort life expectancies is available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/population-and-migration/demography/guide-to-period-and-cohort-life-expectancy/index.html

Background notes

  1. The 2012-based Population Projections for United Kingdom and constituent countries were published on 6 November 2013 (main release) and 10 December 2013 (extra variants).

  2. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

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