Release: National Population Projections, 2010-based reference volume: Series PP2

National population projections are available by age and sex for the UK and constituent countries. They are based on the annual mid-year population estimates for 2010 and a set of underlying assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and net migration.

This publication presents the results of the 2010-based national population projections published in October and November 2011. It provides information on the results of the principal (main) and variant (alternative scenario) projections for each country, with details of the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions on which they are based. In addition to details on the methodology used to produce the projections, analysis of past trends, and comparison with the previous 2008-based national projections.

Projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. They provide an indication of the impact that changes in demographic patterns might have on the size and age structure of the population in the future.

Projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward and long-term projections should be used with caution. To help understand the uncertainty, a number of variant projections are produced based on alternative demographic scenarios.

Other Useful Information

2010-based national population projections – principal and 9 key variants that were published on 26 October 2011

2010-based national population projections – extra 11 variants that were published on 23 November 2011

The interactive table download tool which enables you to easily access the detailed reference tables published in October and November 2011

Interactive population pyramids illustrating the results of the projections published in October and November 2011