Statistical bulletin: Quarterly National Accounts, Q4 2011

The headline figures are

• UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms decreased by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011, revised from a decline of 0.2 per cent previously estimated. For the year 2011, GDP in volume terms increased by 0.7 per cent.
• Output of the production industries fell by 1.3 per cent, within which manufacturing fell by 0.7 per cent.
• Output of the service industries fell by 0.1 per cent, while output of the construction industry fell by 0.2 per cent.
• Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.4 per cent in volume terms in the latest quarter.
• In current price terms, compensation of employees rose by 0.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Summary

This bulletin contains information on the third estimate of GDP for 2011 quarter four. It includes information along with revisions to and more detail on the output, expenditure and income approaches to GDP. Also included are data on the institutional sector accounts, including the household saving ratio and disposable income. The earliest period open for revision is 2011 quarter one.

Key Data Q4 2011

Key data Q4 2011

Gross domestic product   Household saving ratio (per cent) Real household disposable income (1per cent) Current market prices 2008=100 Chained volume measure 2008=100 Chained volume measure (1per cent) Seasonally adjusted 2010 Q1 8.5 0.5 100.4 96.6 0.4 2010 Q2 6.3 -1.7 101.7 97.7 1.1 2010 Q3 7.0 0.5 102.9 98.3 0.7 2010 Q4 6.8 -0.7 103.2 97.9 -0.5 2011 Q1 6.0 -1.4 104.3 98.1 0.2 2011 Q2 7.9 1.4 104.6 98.0 -0.1 2011 Q3 7.9 -0.1 105.6 98.6 0.6 2011 Q4 7.7 -0.2 106.2 98.3 -0.3

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

1. Percentage change on previous quarter: seasonally adjusted

GDP analysed by output categories, chained volume measures, Tables B1 and B2

 

See Annex A (28.5 Kb Excel sheet) for growth rates back to 2011 Q1.

The output of the agriculture, forestry & fishing industry decreased by 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with a decrease of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2011.

The output of the production industries fell by 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011. In the third quarter of 2011 output of the production industries rose by 0.1 per cent. For the year 2011, output of the production industries fell by 1.2 per cent.

Mining & quarrying output decreased by 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011. This compares with a decrease of 0.4 per cent in the previous quarter.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011. This compares with a decrease of 0.1 per cent in the previous quarter.

 

Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply decreased by 5.3 per cent in 2011 quarter four compared with an increase of 1.6 per cent fall in 2011 quarter three.

Water supply, sewerage & waste management increased by 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with an increase of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2011.

Gross value added excluding oil and gas extraction decreased by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with an increase of 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2011. For the year 2011, gross value added excluding oil and gas extraction increased by 1.6 per cent.

Construction output is estimated to have decreased by 0.2 per cent in 2011 quarter four. This compares with an increase of 0.5 per cent in 2011 quarter three. In the year 2011. construction output increased by 2.8 per cent.

Services output decreased by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with an increase of 0.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2011. For the year 2011, services output increased by 1.6 per cent.

 

Output of the distribution, hotels & restaurants' industries fell by 0.4 per cent in 2011 quarter four compared with an increase of 0.4 per cent in 2011 quarter three. This was driven by a weakness in wholesale.

Output of the transport, storage & communication industries fell by 0.5 per cent in 2011 quarter four, compared with an increase of 1.1 per cent in 2011 quarter three. The decline was mainly driven by weakness in transport support and computing.

Output of the business services & finance industries fell by 0.1 per cent in 2011 quarter four, compared with an increase of 1.3 per cent in 2011 quarter three. The main drivers behind the fall in 2011 quarter four were legal activities, banking and auxiliary financial services.

Output of government & other services rose by 0.4 per cent in 2011 quarter four, following a similar increase of 0.4 per cent in 2011 quarter three. The main driver behind the growth in 2011 quarter four was an increase in human health activities.

GDP analysed by expenditure categories, chained volume measures, Table C2

See Annex B (31 Kb Excel sheet) for growth rates back to 2011 Q1.

Gross domestic expenditure decreased by 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with an increase of 0.5 per cent in 2011 quarter three.

Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.4 per cent in 2011 quarter four, compared with a decrease of 0.3 per cent in 2011 quarter three. The level of household expenditure is now 1.0 per cent lower than in 2010 quarter four. The largest increase in spending in the latest quarter was on miscellaneous services, driven by increases in life assurance and other services. Recreation and culture, and other clothing and footwear also grew in 2011 quarter four. This was offset by a decrease in spending on housing, with electricity, gas and other fuels showing the largest fall. For the year 2011, household final consumption expenditure fell by 1.2 per cent.

Government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.5 per cent in 2011 quarter four, compared with a decrease of 0.5 per cent in 2011 quarter three. In 2011, government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.1 per cent.

Gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.6 per cent in the latest quarter, compared with an increase of 0.6 per cent in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, gross fixed capital formation fell by 1.2 per cent.

 

Including the alignment adjustment, the level of inventories increased by £1.1 billion in the latest quarter. In the year 2011, the level of inventories increased by £5.6 billion.

The deficit in net trade was £4.0 billion in 2011 quarter four, compared with a deficit in net trade of £4.7 billion in 2011 quarter three.

Exports of goods rose by 4.0 per cent in 2011 quarter four, driven by increases in chemicals, capital goods and intermediate goods. Exports of services fell by 2.0 per cent in 2011 quarter four driven by a decrease in financial services. Imports of goods rose by 1.0 per cent in 2011 quarter four driven by increases in ships & aircraft, and cars. Imports of services rose by 0.4 per cent in 2011 quarter four driven by an increase in travel services, partially offset by a fall in financial services.

GDP implied deflator

See Annex D (34.5 Kb Excel sheet) for growth rates back to 2011 Q1.

The gross domestic product implied deflator at market prices for 2011 quarter four is 2.3 per cent above the same quarter of 2010.

GDP analysed by income categories at current prices, Table D

See Annex C (28.5 Kb Excel sheet) for growth rates back to 2011 Q1.

GDP at current market prices rose by 0.6 per cent in 2011 quarter four, compared with an increase of 0.9 per cent in 2011 quarter three.

Compensation of employees rose by 0.9 per cent in 2011 quarter four, compared with an increase of 1.1 per cent in 2011 quarter three. For the year 2011, compensation of employees increased by 2.1 per cent.
  

The gross operating surplus of corporations rose by 1.3 per cent in 2011 quarter four, compared with a fall of 1.0 per cent in 2011 quarter three. Private non-financial corporations' operating surplus rose by 2.0 per cent in 2011 quarter four. Financial corporations' operating surplus fell by 15.0 per cent in 2011 quarter four. For the year 2011, gross operating surplus of corporations rose by 0.2 per cent.

 

Taxes on products and production less subsidies increased by 0.6 per cent in 2011 quarter four compared with an increase of 3.4 per cent in 2011 quarter three. In 2011 as a whole, taxes on products and production less subsidies increased by 8.4 per cent.

Sector Accounts, Tables I, J1, J2, J3, K1 and K2

Summary

The household saving ratio was 7.7 per cent in 2011 quarter four compared with 7.9 per cent in the previous quarter. For the year 2011 the saving ratio was 7.4 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent in 2010.

Net lending by sector, Table I

In 2011 quarter four and annually for 2011, the central government and local governemnt sectors were net borrows. Public corporations, financial corporations, private non-financial corporations, households and the rest of the world sectors were net lenders.

Central government

Net borrowing was £29.4 billion in 2011 quarter four following net borrowing of £28.3 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, central government net borrowing was £122.3 billion compared with £147.7 billion in 2010.

Local government

Net borrowing was £1.7 billion in 2011 quarter four following net borrowing of £1.3 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, local government net borrowing was £3.4 billion compared with £1.4 billion in 2010.

Public corporations

Net lending was £0.2 billion in 2011 quarter four, following net lending of £0.9 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, public corporations net lending was £1.7 billion unchanged from 2010.

Financial corporations

Net lending was £0.9 billion in 2011 quarter four following net lending of £9.3 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, financial corporations net lending was £25.1 billion compared with £17.6 billion in 2010.

Private non-financial corporations

Net lending was £17.2 billion in 2011 quarter four, following net lending of £4.2 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, private non-financial corporations net lending was £53.2 billion compared with £53.1 billion in 2010.

Household and non-profit institutions serving households

Net lending was £5.7 billion in 2011 quarter four following net lending of £6.3 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, household and non-profit institutions serving households net lending was £21.0 billion compared with net lending of £24.9 billion in 2010.

Rest of the world

Net lending was £7.6 billion in 2011 quarter four, following net lending of £9.4 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, net lending was £25.4 billion following on from £44.9 billion in 2010. This implies a UK current account deficit for 2011.

The household and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector, Tables J1, J2 and J3

The saving ratio in 2011 quarter four was 7.7 per cent compared with 7.9 per cent in 2011 quarter three. This decrease was driven by increased household expenditure partially offset by increased wages and salries and net property income.

The level of real household disposable income decreased by 0.2 per cent in the latest quarter following a decrease of 0.1 per cent in 2011 quarter three. The fall in the latest quarter is the result of an increase of 0.6 per cent in nominal gross disposable income being offset by a rise of 0.8 per cent in the household and NPISH final consumption expenditure deflator. Real household disposable income is now 0.3 per cent below the level seen in 2010 quarter four.

For the year 2011, real household disposable income decreased by 1.2 per cent following on from a 0.2 per cent decrease in 2010. This reflects a rise of 2.7 per cent in the nominal gross disposable income, driven by increased compensation of employees, gross operating surplus and mixed income and other large movements being offset by an increase in taxes on income and wealth. This also reflects the increase in the household and NPISH final consumption deflator, which rose by 4.0 per cent in 2011 following a rise of 4.1 per cent in 2010.

Private non-financial corporations sector, Tables K1 and K2

Net lending of private non-financial corporations was £17.2 billion in the latest quarter, compared with net lending of £4.2 billion in the previous quarter. This increase in net lending in the latest quarter was driven by decreased dividend payments and decreased gross capital formation. For the year 2011, net lending was £53.2 billion compared with £53.1 billion in 2010.

Economic background

The latest GDP estimate indicates that the economy contracted by slightly more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. This primarily reflects the taking on of additional data from surveys and administrative sources. The estimate has been revised from a fall of 0.2 per cent to a fall of 0.3 per cent which indicates a mild contraction and reflects the difficult economic conditions faced by businesses and consumers, domestically, regionally and globally.

As has been mentioned in previous GDP releases for recent quarters, there seems to be some contrast in the condition facing businesses and households and their confidence. Consumer confidence continues to be weak and subdued, whilst business expectations remains relatively buoyant, particularly when compared with the same survey indicators of activity.

However, a number of indicators depicting the economic and financial conditions facing households continue to be weak or adverse. Aside from low consumer confidence, external survey indicators of household financial positions suggest they are still very weak despite what is now a fairly prolonged period of re-balancing their debt positions; employment conditions and prospects remain very weak, with unemployment continuing to rise; wage growth remains well below inflation, as it has been for most of the last four years. However, with household consumption rising in the fourth quarter, for the first time in the last six quarters, there are signs that consumers may be beginning to feel more confident about spending although it may also simply reflect a prolonged period of pent up demand which cannot be permanently suppressed. The growth of household consumption in the fourth quarter came from services, durables and semi-durables, whilst non-durables contracted. This goes some way to supporting the idea that households have been putting off purchasing more expensive durables and household services, though it also reflects some of the strong discounting that was evident during the autumn and in the run up to Christmas.

Compensation of employees also increased, reflecting the stronger Workforce jobs data. Although there were some sources of strength in the fourth quarter data (household consumption, net exports, compensation of employees, private non-financial corporations' gross operating surplus and government expenditure), there were also areas of weakness, which on balance outweighed the areas of growth. These were primarily due to a decline in business investment, reduced stockbuilding and a decline in financial corporations' gross operating surpluses.

Revisions, GDP and components, previously published 24 February 2012

Revisions resulting from the incorporation of new data and replacement of forecasts and estimates based on earlier data have been taken back to the first quarter of 2011.

GDP growth for 2011 quarter four has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points from the estimate published last month. There has been an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point to 2011 quarter three; a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points to 2011 quarter two and a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points to 2011 quarter one.

Output components

Growth in the volume of output in the production industries for both 2011 quarters four and three has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points from the estimates published last month. The 2011 quarter two estimate of production output has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points. The 2011 quarter one estimate of production output has been revised up by 0.2 percentage points.

The volume of output in the service industries in 2011 quarter four has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points.

The volume of output in the construction industries has been revised up by 0.3 percentage points in 2011 quarter four. Construction output has been revised up by 0.2 percentage points for the 2011 quarter three estimate; revised down by 0.5 percentage points in 2011 quarter two and revised up by 0.2 percentage points in 2011 quarter one.

Expenditure components chained volume measures

Growth in household final consumption expenditure has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points for 2011 quarter four and has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points for 2011 quarter three. In 2011 quarter two household final consumption expenditure has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points and has been revised down by 0.3 percentage points for 2011 quarter one.

Growth in general government final consumption expenditure has been revised down by 0.5 percentage points for 2011 quarter four. General government final consumption expenditure has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points in 2011 quarter three. General government final consumption expenditure has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points in 2011 quarter two. For 2011 quarter one general government final consumption expenditure has been revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

Growth in gross fixed capital formation has been revised up by 2.2 percentage points for 2011 quarter four; revised up by 1.6 percentage points in 2011 quarter three; revised down by 0.8 percentage points for 2011 quarter two and revised down by 0.2 percentage points for 2011 quarter one.

Growth in exports of goods and services has been revised down by 0.7 percentage points for 2011 quarter four; revised up by 0.7 percentage points for 2011 quarter three; revised down by 0.1 percentage points for 2011 quarter two and revised down by 0.3 percentage points for 2011 quarter one.

Growth in imports of goods and services has been revised up by 0.5 percentage points for 2011 quarter four; revised up by 0.2 percentage points for 2011 quarter two and revised up by 0.3 percentage points for 2011 quarter one.

Income components

Growth in compensation of employees has been revised up by 1.2 percentage points for 2011 quarter four. For 2011 quarter three compensation of employees growth was revised up by 0.4 percentage points and revised up by 0.2 percentage points for 2011 quarter one.

Growth in the gross operating surplus of corporations in 2011 quarter four was revised down by 3.3 percentage points. In 2011 quarter three gross operating surplus of corporations' growth was revised down by 1.8 percentage points. In 2011 quarter two gross operating surplus of corporations' growth was revised up by 0.8 percentage points. In 2011 quarter one gross operating surplus of corporations' growth was revised down by 1.2 percentage points.

Revisions, Sector accounts, previously published 22 December 2011

Revisions have been taken back to 2011 quarter one in this release.

Net lending by sector, table I

Central government

Net borrowing in 2011 quarter three was revised from £30.3 billion to £28.3 billion.

Local government

Net borrowing in 2011 quarter three was revised from £1.6 billion to £1.3 billion.

Public corporations

Net lending in 2011 quarter three was revised from £0.2 billion to £0.9 billion.

Financial corporations

Net lending in 2011 quarter three was revised from £5.2 billion to £9.3 billion.

Private non-financial corporations

Net lending in 2011 quarter three was revised from £12.0 billion to £4.2 billion.

Household and NPISH

Net lending in 2011 quarter three was revised from £2.9 billion to £6.3 billion.

Rest of world

Net lending in 2011 quarter three was revised from £14.2 billion to £9.4 billion.

Household and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector, tables J1, J2 and J3

The household saving ratio was revised up in 2011 quarter three from 6.6 per cent to 7.9 per cent. This reflects downward revision to household expenditure.

Real household disposable income growth has been revised down from a rise of 0.3 per cent to a fall of 0.1 per cent in 2011 quarter three.

Background notes

1. Release policy
   
   This release includes data available up to 14 March 2012. Data are consistent with the Index of Production statistical bulletin published 9 March 2012 and the Trade in Goods data within the UK Trade Statistical Bulletin published 13 March 2012.

2. Future releases
   
   A preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2012 will be published on 25 April 2012. The second estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2012 will be published on 24 May 2012.

3. Forthcoming changes
   
   As a result of a review of the content and presentation of GDP statistical bulletins and following consultation with key users, ONS has made some presentational changes to this release. In this and all subsequent quarterly national accounts bulletins, the aggregate income and expenditure tables will include the alignemnt adjustments as 'of which' items within the relevant components - changes in inventories and gross operating surplus.

4. Other changes
   
   During April 2012 ONS will publish the first of a regular series of quarterly releases focusing on the household sector. Ahead of this new publication improvements have been made to the method of calculating 'per head' statistics within the the United Kingdom Economic Accounts published today. ONS has also taken this opportunity to reinstate longer time series for all 'per head' series.

5. Treatment of Olympic ticket sales
   
   An article titled Treatment of the Sale of Olympic Tickets (19.1 Kb Pdf) in the National Accounts is available on the ONS website.

6. Basic Quality Information for GDP Statistical Bulletin

   A Quality and Methodology Information (195.1 Kb Pdf) report for this Statistical Bulletin can be found on the ONS website.

7. Key quality issues
   
   Common pitfalls in interpreting series: Expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high. Revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. Early estimates are based on incomplete data.
   
   Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of 'errors' in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical 'error' but in this context the word refers to the uncertainty inherent in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modelling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques or the incorporation of new information which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced. Only rarely are there avoidable 'errors' such as human or system failures and such mistakes are made quite clear when they do occur.

8. Reliability
   
   Estimates for the most recent quarters are provisional and are subject to revision in the light of updated source information. ONS currently provides an analysis of past revisions (244.6 Kb Pdf) in the GDP and other Statistical Bulletins which present times series.
   
   ONS has a webpage dedicated to revisions to economic statistics which brings together ONS work on revisions analysis, linking to articles, revisions' policies and key documentation from the Statistics Commission's report on revisions.
   
   Revisions to data provide one indication of the realiability of key indicators. The tables below show summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to data covering a five-year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows that the test is significant.

9. Revisions of GDP estimates
   
   Table 1 below shows the revisions to month 1 and month 2 estimates of GDP. The analysis of revisions between month 1 and month 2 uses month 2 estimates published from May 2007 (2007q1) to February 2012 (2011q4). The analysis of revisions between month 2 and month 3 uses month 3 estimates published from March 2007 (2006q4) to December 2011 (2011 q3).
   
   

   Table 1: Revisions to early estimates of GDP growth

   		Revisions between early estimates of GDP growth (quarterly, CVM)
   GDP growth in the latest period (per cent)		Average over the last five years	Average over the last five years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
   Revisions to GDP growth
   Between M1 and M2	-0.3	0.01	0.05
   Between M2 and M3	-0.3	-0.03	0.08

   Table source: Office for National Statistics

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   Table 2 below shows the revisions to GDP growth and the household saving ratio between the estimate published three months after the end of the quarter and the equivalent estimate three years later. For GDP and Household saving ratio, the analysis uses month 3 estimates first published from March 2004 (2003q4) to December 2008 (2008q3) for GDP.
   
   

   Table 2: Revisions to month 3 estimates of GDP growth and the household saving ratio

   		Revisions between first publication and estimates three years later
   	GDP growth in the latest period (per cent)	Average over the last five years	Average over the last five years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
   GDP growth (quarterly CVM)	-0.3	-0.16	0.29
   Household saving ratio	7.7	-0.91	1.16

   Table source: Office for National Statistics

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   Spreadsheets giving revision triangles (real-time databases) of estimates from 1992 to date, and the calculations behind the averages in both tables are available on the ONS website.
   
   Revisions' triangles for the main components of GDP from expenditure, ouput and income approaches are also available.
   
   An article titled Understanding the quality of early estimates of Gross Domestic Product, first published in December 2009, is available on the ONS website.

10. Coherence
    
    Historic experience shows that the output approach provides the best timely approach to measuring GDP growth. GDP growth according to the expenditure and income approaches is therefore brought into line with that recorded by output.

11. Further information
    
    Latest copies of this and other ONS releases are available on the ONS website. ONS has also produced a short guide to the UK National Accounts (124.6 Kb Pdf) . 

12. Policy governing release of new data
    
    Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office. Also available is a list of the names of those given pre-publication access (31.8 Kb Pdf) to the contents of this bulletin.

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15. Index to tables

    Gross domestic product tables

    National accounts aggregates (index numbers) ................................................ A1

    National accounts aggregates ......................................................................... A2

    Gross value added chained volume measures at basic prices, by category of output ........................................................................................................... B1

    Gross value added chained volume measures at basic prices, by category of output: service industries ...................................................................................................... B2

    Gross domestic product: expenditure
    Current market prices ................................................................................... C1

    Gross domestic product: expenditure
    Chained volume measures ............................................................................. C2

    Gross domestic product: by category of income
    Current market prices ................................................................................... D

    Household final consumption expenditure by purpose
    Current market prices ................................................................................... E1

    Household final consumption expenditure (goods and services)
    Current market prices ................................................................................... E2

    Household final consumption expenditure by purpose
    Chained volume measures............................................................................. E3

    Household final consumption expenditure (goods and services)
    Chained volume measures............................................................................. E4

    Gross fixed capital formation by sector and type of asset
    Chained volume measures............................................................................. F

    Changes in inventories
    Chained volume measures............................................................................ G

    Exports and imports of goods and services
    Current market prices........................................................................... H1

    Exports and imports of goods and services
    Chained volume measures........................................................................... H2

    Sector accounts tables

    Net lending/borrowing by sector.................................................................. I

    
    Household sector: allocation of primary income account................................ J1

    Household sector: secondary distribution of income account........................... J2

    Household sector: use of disposable income account..................................... J3

    Private non-financial corporation sector:

    allocation of primary income account............................................................. K1

    Private non-financial corporation sector:

    secondary distribution of income account and capital account........................... K2

    Other analysis

    Gross value at basic prices: individual measures............................................. L

    Alignment adjustments................................................................................. M

    Revisions tables

    Revisions analysis: revisions against previously published estimates.................. R

16. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

Statistical contacts

Name	Phone	Department	Email
Pete Lee	+44 (0)1633 456713	Office for National Statistics	gdp@ons.gsi.gov.uk