This bulletin contains information on the third estimate of GDP for 2012 quarter three. It includes revisions and more detail on the output, income and expenditure approaches to GDP. Also included are data on the institutional sector accounts, including the households' saving ratio and disposable income.
|Households' saving ratio||Real households' disposable income||Gross domestic product|
|Current market prices||Chained volume measure||Chained volume measure|
|per cent||1per cent||2009=100||2009=100||1per cent|
Annex A (30.5 Kb Excel sheet) contains growth rates back to Q1 2011.
Output of the agriculture, forestry & fishing industries increased by 4.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 following a decrease of 2.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.
Output of the production industries rose by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2012. In the second quarter of 2012 output of the production industries fell by 0.9 per cent.
Mining & quarrying output increased by 2.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2012. This follows a decrease of 3.5 per cent in the previous quarter.
Manufacturing output rose by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2012. In 2012 quarter two manufacturing output fell by 1.0 per cent (see Figure 2).
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply decreased by 2.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 following an increase of 4.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.
Water supply, sewerage & waste management increased by 2.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 following a decrease of 2.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.
Construction output decreased by 2.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2012. This follows a decrease of 2.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.
Services output increased by 1.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 following a decrease of 0.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2012 (see Figure 3).
Output of the distribution, hotels & restaurants industries increased by 1.9 per cent in 2012 quarter three following an increase of 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. The increase in 2012 quarter three was mainly due to the wholesale industries.
Output of the transport, storage & communication industries rose by 0.2 per cent in 2012 quarter three following a decrease of 1.5 per cent in 2012 quarter two. The increase was mainly due to programming & broadcasting activities and computer programming, consultancy & related activities. These were offset by decreases in motion picture, video & TV programme production and information service activities.
Output of the business services & finance industries rose by 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2012. In 2012 quarter two output of the business services & finance industries was unchanged. In 2012 quarter three increases were mainly due to employment activities and rental & leasing activities. These were offset by decreases in financial service activities and services to building & landscaping activities.
Output of government & other services increased by 1.6 per cent in 2012 quarter three following an increase of 0.2 per cent in 2012 quarter two. The increase in 2012 quarter three was mainly due to sports activities, amusement & recreation activities.
Gross value added excluding oil and gas extraction increased by 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 following a decrease of 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.
Annex B (31.5 Kb Excel sheet) contains growth rates back to Q1 2011.
Gross domestic expenditure (the sum of all expenditure by UK residents on goods and services which are not used up or transformed in a productive process) increased by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 following an increase of 0.6 per cent in 2012 quarter two.
Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.4 per cent in 2012 quarter three, following an increase of 0.2 per cent in 2012 quarter two (see Figure 4). The level of household expenditure is now 1.3 per cent higher than in 2011 quarter three. The largest increases in household spending in the latest quarter were in recreation & culture and transport. The largest decreases were in household goods & services and housing.
Government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.8 per cent in 2012 quarter three, following a decrease of 1.1 per cent in 2012 quarter two.
Gross fixed capital formation decreased by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2012, following a decrease of 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter (see Figure 5).
Including the alignment adjustment, the level of inventories increased by £1.0 billion in the third quarter of 2012. Excluding the alignment adjustment, the level of inventories increased by £1.4 billion.
The deficit in net trade was £5.5 billion in 2012 quarter three, compared with a deficit in net trade of £7.3 billion in 2012 quarter two (see Figure 6).
Exports of goods rose by 3.1 per cent in 2012 quarter three due to increases in chemicals and capital goods, partially offset by a fall in ships and aircraft. Exports of services fell by 1.5 per cent in 2012 quarter three due to decreases in insurance and financial services. Imports of goods fell by 0.1 per cent in 2012 quarter three due to decreases in other consumer goods and fuels, partially offset by an increase in capital goods. Imports of services fell by 1.5 per cent in 2012 quarter three due to other business services, financial services and government services.
Annex D (28 Kb Excel sheet) contains growth rates back to Q1 2011.
The gross domestic product implied deflator at market prices for 2012 quarter three is 2.2 per cent above the same quarter of 2011 (see Figure 7). The GDP implied deflator is calculated by dividing current price GDP by chained volume GDP and multiplying by one hundred to convert to an index. It is not used in the calculation of GDP, rather it is generated after the calculation of GDP.
Annex C (22 Kb Excel sheet) contains growth rates back to Q1 2011.
GDP at current market prices rose by 1.7 per cent in 2012 quarter three. In 2012 quarter two GDP at current market prices fell by 0.3 per cent.
Compensation of employees increased by 0.7 per cent in 2012 quarter three. This follows an increase of 0.1 per cent in 2012 quarter two (see Figure 8).
The gross operating surplus of corporations, including the alignment adjustment, increased by 3.9 per cent in 2012 quarter three, following a decrease of 3.0 per cent in 2012 quarter two (see Figure 9). Private non-financial corporations on an aligned basis rose by 5.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 following a decrease of 2.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. On an unaligned basis private non-financial corporations increased by 0.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 and decreased by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter 2012.
Taxes on products and production less subsidies increased by 1.1 per cent in 2012 quarter three following a decrease of 0.2 per cent in 2012 quarter two.
The households' saving ratio was 7.7 per cent in 2012 quarter three, up from 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, the saving ratio was 6.6 per cent, unchanged from 2010.
In 2012 quarter three, the central government sector was a net borrower. Local government, public corporations, financial corporations, private non-financial corporations, households and the rest of the world sectors were net lenders (see Figure 10).
Annually for 2011, the central government sector was a net borrower. Local government, public corporations, financial corporations, private non-financial corporations, households and the rest of the world sectors were net lenders.
Net borrowing was £33.9 billion in 2012 quarter three following net borrowing of £4.3 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, central government net borrowing was £121.9 billion following net borrowing of £146.0 billion in 2010.
Net lending was £2.0 billion in 2012 quarter three following net lending of £2.1 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, local government net lending was £1.8 billion following net borrowing of £1.0 billion in 2010.
Net lending was £0.7 billion in 2012 quarter three, following net borrowing of £0.8 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, public corporations' net lending was £0.1 billion following net lending of £1.0 billion in 2010.
Net lending was £4.0 billion in 2012 quarter three, following net borrowing of £24.5 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, financial corporations' net lending was £29.7 billion following net lending of £31.0 billion in 2010.
Net lending was £9.3 billion in 2012 quarter three, following net lending of £7.3 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, private non-financial corporations' net lending was £68.3 billion following net lending of £64.0 billion in 2010.
Net lending was £8.7 billion in 2012 quarter three following net lending of £6.4 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, household and non-profit institutions serving households net lending was £15.0 billion following net lending of £17.4 billion in 2010.
Net lending was £11.9 billion in 2012 quarter three, following net lending of £16.5 billion in the previous quarter. For the year 2011, net lending was £17.2 billion following on from net lending of £33.6 billion in 2010.
The saving ratio in 2012 quarter three was 7.7 per cent compared with 7.4 per cent in 2012 quarter two, (see Figure 11). This increase was driven by a rise in gross operating surplus, mixed income and compensation of employees, partially offset by increased consumption expenditure.
The level of real households' disposable income increased by 0.4 per cent in the latest quarter following an increase of 2.3 per cent in 2012 quarter two (see Figure 12). This rise is due to a 0.9 per cent increase in nominal gross disposable income offset by growth of 0.5 per cent in the households and NPISH final consumption expenditure deflator.
For the year 2011, real households' disposable income decreased by 1.0 per cent following a rise of 0.5 per cent in 2010. This reflects a rise of 4.5 per cent in the households and NPISH final consumption deflator partially offset by a 3.5 per cent increase in nominal gross disposable income. The rise in nominal gross disposable income was driven by increased compensation of employees, gross operating surplus and mixed income.
Net lending of private non-financial corporations was £9.3 billion in the latest quarter compared with net lending of £7.3 billion in the previous quarter. This increase in net lending in the latest quarter was driven by a rise in gross operating surplus offset by increased gross capital formation.
For the year 2011 net lending was £68.3 billion compared with £64.0 billion in 2010.
GDP grew by 0.9 per cent according to the third estimate for the third quarter of 2012. Since the second estimate, GDP has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points. Despite the revision, the overall economic picture remains broadly unchanged. The UK economy has experienced subdued economic growth since the recovery from the 2008 economic downturn lost momentum in late 2010. GDP was unchanged when compared with the same quarter in 2011 and has grown by 0.7 per cent when compared with the same quarter in 2010. That said, in the most recent quarter growth has been partly supported by special factors such as hosting the Olympic and Paralympic Games as well as the very weak second quarter growth which was affected by particularly the bad weather and reduction in working days caused by the Diamond Jubilee.
In the output measure, service industries’ growth was revised down by 0.1 percentage points from 1.3 per cent to 1.2 per cent, but remained the main driver of growth. Production growth was revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points as a consequence of downward revisions to mining & quarrying including oil & gas extraction, and manufacturing. There was also a small upward revision to construction but due to the industry’s relatively small weight, its impact on GDP was minimal.
Household expenditure grew for the fourth consecutive quarter but was revised down by 0.2 percentage points, from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent. The growth in household expenditure during the last year has been subdued and this latest revision reflects the difficult situation faced by households. Low consumer confidence, paying off previously accrued debt and inflationary pressures have potentially contributed to muted consumer spending. The fall in gross fixed capital formation of 0.2 per cent may also reflect a lack of confidence in the economy.
In the income approach, compensation of employees has been revised down from 1.4 per cent to 0.7 per cent since the second estimate of GDP. Compensation of employees is a broader category which includes more than just ‘wages’ and salaries but also includes social and pension contributions by employers. Therefore, the downward revision does not necessarily mean a reduction in consumer spending power or a further squeeze on households.
Overall the picture remains broadly unchanged from the Second Estimate of GDP. The Diamond Jubilee and particularly poor weather in the second quarter and hosting of the Olympic and Paralympic Games in the third quarter may explain why growth appears to be robust when compared to previous quarters. However, it is not possible to quantify the effects of the events and therefore assess the underlying strength of the economy.
ONS publishes a monthly Economic Review discussing the economic background giving economic commentary on the latest GDP estimate and other ONS economic releases. The next article will be published on 8 January 2013.
As part of the celebrations for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee there were changes to bank holidays in May and June 2012. The Spring Bank Holiday moved into June, and there was an additional day's holiday.
The change to the holidays has been classified as a statistical special event in line with ONS policy on Special Events (209.3 Kb Pdf) . The event was not regular, so no adjustment has been made to account for it as part of the seasonal adjustment process. It is not possible to quantify the impact of the changes to the bank holidays at this stage; retrospective analysis will be carried out, in line with the ONS special events policy, when data for later periods are available. The bad weather in the quarter may have also had an impact in some components although it has not been formally designated as a special event.
The change in the bank holidays in May and June due to the Diamond Jubilee and the poor weather between April and June 2012 added additional uncertainty to the estimate for June 2012 used within the compilation of the quarter two 2012 preliminary estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) published on 25 July 2012. An article produced at that time showed users how the quarter two 2012 preliminary estimate of GDP was compiled.
In 2012 quarter three, GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in the Euro Area and rose by 0.1 per cent in the European Union as a whole (EU27), (see Figure 13). These are based upon second estimates of GDP for the third quarter of 2012 published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Compared with the third quarter of 2011, seasonally adjusted GDP in the Euro area fell by 0.6 per cent. In the European Union as a whole, GDP was 0.4 per cent lower than in 2011 quarter three.
GDP for the United States of America rose by 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2012 compared with the previous quarter when it rose by 0.3 per cent. GDP for Japan decreased by 0.9 per cent in 2012 quarter three. GDP growth for Japan was 0.0 per cent in 2012 quarter two.
When compared with the same quarter a year ago GDP for the United States of America rose by 2.5 per cent and GDP for Japan increased by 0.5 per cent.
The preliminary estimate of GDP released on 25 October included a description of where Olympic and Paralympic effects may have been seen in the output components of GDP. This section will describe possible effects of the games on expenditure and income approaches. As previously stated, it is not possible to quantify these effects, as there may have been offsetting positive and negative effects on different components and in different parts of the UK.
The most obvious effect is that of ticket sales, which are included in household final consumption expenditure (for domestic ticket-buyers) and exports (for non-UK residents). There may also have been a different pattern of household consumption by product category caused by the Olympics. Spending on categories such as hotels & restaurants and transport may have been affected, because those not attending the games consumed these services differently during the games period. There may also have been some people who chose not to travel at all during the games period. Additionally a small upward effect on government final consumption expenditure may have resulted from the Games. As well as the ticket sales already mentioned, it might be expected that there would be additional exports of both goods and services from the UK from those non-residents visiting during the Olympic and Paralympic Games.
There may have been an effect on the gross operating surplus of corporations, both as a result of Olympic and Paralympic ticket sales and also due to extra sales from corporations providing goods and services to spectators. The compensation of employees figure may have been affected if employers had to recruit extra staff to meet extra demand, although some employers may have just redeployed existing staff from other parts of their organisations.
The effects of the Olympic and Paralympic Games are not easily identifiable in the GDP data and are not all in the same direction. A detailed article (229 Kb Pdf) describing possible effects, comparing with earlier Olympic Games was published by ONS on 25 October.
The earliest period open for revision in this release is Q1 2011 (see figure 14).
Output revisions are shown in Annex E (31 Kb Excel sheet) of this release.
Expenditure revisions are shown in Annex F (36.5 Kb Excel sheet) of this release.
Income revisions are shown in Annex G (24 Kb Excel sheet) of this release.
Sector accounts revisions are shown in Annex H (2.92 Mb Excel sheet) of this release
This release includes data available up to 11 December 2012. Data are consistent with the Index of Production statistical bulletin published on 7 December 2012 and the trade in goods data within the UK Trade statistical bulletin published on 6 December.
A preliminary estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 will be published on 25 January 2013. The second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 will be published on 27 February 2013. A full set of quarterly national accounts for the fourth quarter of 2012 will be published on 27 March 2013.
Release content and context
This release is the second estimate of GDP. Data content for each successive release of GDP varies according to availability.
The preliminary estimate of GDP is based on output data alone. These are based on survey estimates for the first two months of the quarter with estimates for the third month of the quarter based on forecasts using early returns from businesses. Other (non-survey based) data used in the compilation of the output approach are also based on forecasts.
For the second estimate of GDP output estimates based on survey data are available for all three months of the quarter, in addition to other significant data sources. Estimates of the expenditure and income approaches to measuring GDP are also available in this release based on a combination of limited survey data, other data sources and forecasts.
For the quarterly national accounts release, output survey data are available for all three months of the quarter, along with most other data sources. For the expenditure and income approaches to measuring GDP, more extensive survey data are available, in addition to other data sources and a more limited use of forecasts.
After this release, the current quarter will be subject to revision in accordance with National Accounts revisions policy as further data, annual benchmarks and methodological improvements are implemented.
Measuring the impact of the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic games in the National Accounts
An article titled
'Measuring the impact of the Olympics and Paralympic games in the National Accounts' (115.6 Kb Pdf)
is available on the ONS' website which describes ONS' approach to ensuring that the planning, organising and economic activities associated with staging the games are recorded and recognised within the National Accounts.
National accounts methodology and articles
ONS regularly publishes methodological information and articles to give users more detailed information on developments within the National Accounts; supplementary analyses of data to help users with the interpretation of statistics and guidance on the methodology used to produce the National Accounts.
Historic experience shows that the output approach provides the most timely approach to measuring GDP growth. GDP growth according to the expenditure and income approaches is therefore brought into line with that recorded by output.
ONS has produced an article ‘Interpreting the Recent Behaviour of the Economy', available on the ONS' website to aid interpretation of the recent movements in the economy.
An article describing the 'Content of Blue Book 2013' (62.7 Kb Pdf) published by ONS on 30 November 2012. It includes forthcoming changes and outlines future plans for subsequent Blue and Pink Books.
National accounts classification decisions
The UK National Accounts are produced under internationally agreed guidance and rules set out principally in the European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA 95), and the accompanying Manual on Government Deficit and Debt (MGDD).
In the UK the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is responsible for the application and interpretation of these rules. ONS therefore makes classification decisions based upon the agreed guidance and rules and these are published on the ONS' website.
Basic Quality Information for GDP Statistical Bulletin
Quality and Methodology Information report (197.4 Kb Pdf)
for this Statistical Bulletin can be found on the ONS' website.
Key quality issues
Common pitfalls in interpreting series: Expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high. Revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. Early estimates are based on incomplete data.
Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of ‘errors’ in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical ‘error’ but in this context the word refers to the uncertainty inherent in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modelling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques or the incorporation of new information which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced. Only rarely are there avoidable ‘errors’ such as human or system failures and such mistakes are made quite clear when they do occur.
Estimates for the most recent quarters are provisional and are subject to revision in the light of updated source information. ONS currently provides an analysis of past revisions in the GDP and other Statistical Bulletin which present time series.
ONS has a webpage dedicated to revisions to economic statistics which brings together ONS work on revisions analysis, linking to articles, revisions policies and key documentation from the Statistics Commission's report on revisions.
Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. The tables below show summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to data covering a five-year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows if the result of the test is significant.
Revisions to GDP estimates
Table 2 below shows the revisions to month 1 and month 2 estimates of GDP. The analysis of revisions between month 1 and month 2 uses month 2 estimates published from February 2008 (2007 Q4) to November 2012 (2012 Q3). The analysis of revisions between month 2 and month 3 uses month 3 estimates published from December 2007 (2007 Q3) to September 2012 (2012 Q2).
|Estimate in the latest period||Revisions between early estimates of GDP growth (quarterly, CVM)|
|Revisions to GDP growth||Average over the last five years||Average over the last five years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)|
|per cent||per cent||per cent|
|Between M1 and M2||0.9||0.02||0.06|
|Between M2 and M3||0.9||-0.03||0.09|
Table 3 shows the revisions to GDP growth and the households' saving ratio between the estimate published three months after the end of the quarter and the equivalent estimate three years later. The analysis uses month 3 estimates first published from December 2004 (2004 Q3) to September 2009 (2009 Q2) for GDP.
Revisions triangles for the main components of GDP from expenditure, output and income approaches, and spreadsheets containing revisions triangles (real time databases) of estimates from 1992 to date and the calculations behind the averages in both tables are available on the ONS' website.
An article titled 'Updated analysis of revisions to quarterly GDP' (206.7 Kb Pdf) , published in October 2012 is available on the ONS' website.
Information on the methods ONS uses for balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP can be found on the ONS' website.
The size and direction of the quarterly alignment adjustments in the third quarter of 2012 indicate that, for 2012 quarter three, the level of expenditure was higher than that of output and the level of income was lower than that of output.
Latest copies of this and other ONS' releases are available under Press Releases on the ONS' website. ONS has also produced a short guide to the UK National Accounts (93.6 Kb Pdf) .
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