|Index number||Month on the same month a year ago||3 months on the same 3 months a year ago||Month on previous month||3 months on previous 3 months|
The seasonally adjusted index of production fell by 3 per cent in October 2012 compared with October 2011. This is the 19th consecutive monthly fall on the same month a year ago.
Between September 2012 and October 2012 this index fell by 0.8 per cent. The main downwards contributions were in the mining & quarrying sector where there was a fall of 3.9 per cent and, a fall in the manufacturing sector of 1.3 per cent. These falls were partially offset by an increase in the energy supply sector, which rose by 4.5 per cent, and an increase of 1.1 per cent in the water & waste management sector.
The seasonally adjusted index of manufacturing fell by 2.1 per cent in October 2012 when compared with October 2011. Nine manufacturing sub sectors fell and four rose. For this period the largest downward contributions in manufacturing output were: the manufacture of chemicals & chemical products, which fell by 9.4 per cent; the manufacture of wood and paper products, which fell 9.3 per cent and, the manufacture of rubber & plastic products which fell by 9.2 per cent. In contrast, the largest increase came from the manufacture of transport equipment, which rose by 6.0 per cent.
Seasonally adjusted manufacturing output fell by 1.3 per cent in October 2012 compared with September 2012, following no change in growth between August and September 2012.
Ten manufacturing sub sectors fell, two rose and one remained the same. The largest contributions to the month on month fall were: the manufacture of food products, beverages & tobacco, which fell by 2.4 per cent (largely due to the alcohol manufacturing industries); the manufacture of pharmaceutical products, which fell by 5.1 per cent and the manufacture of coke & refined petroleum, which fell by 19.6 per cent.
The large month on month fall in the manufacture of coke & refined petroleum was due to planned maintenance and lower production reported at a number of sites.
Output of the mining & quarrying industries fell by 20.9 per cent in October 2012 compared with October 2011.
The largest downward contributions came from extraction of oil & gas, which fell by 26.9 per cent, followed by the mining of coal and lignite, which fell by 27.8 per cent.
Between September 2012 and October 2012 the mining & quarrying sector fell by 3.9 per cent. The main downwards contribution was from the extraction of oil & gas, which fell by 4.4 per cent. Output for other mining and quarrying fell by 2.8 per cent for the same period.
Operational repairs in a large North Sea oil field continued in October 2012, reducing output.
Energy supply output rose by 9.1 per cent in October 2012 compared with October 2011. This was largely due to an increase in, electrical power generation, transmission & distribution of 10.2 per cent.
Between September 2012 and October 2012 energy output supply rose by 4.5 per cent. This was largely due to an increase in gas supply of 18.5 per cent. This was partially caused by increased demand for gas in the production of electricity.
Evidence also shows lower temperatures for the period - October 2012 was 2.9 degrees colder when compared with October 2011 and, 3.7 degrees colder in October 2012 than in September 2012.
Water & waste management rose by 2.4 per cent in October 2012 when compared with October 2011.
Between September 2012 and October 2012 water & waste management output rose by 1.1 per cent.
All revisions to Index of Production quarters are estimated to have minimal impact (less than 0.05 percentage points) on previously published estimates of GDP quarterly growth rates.
The Index of Production (IoP) measures the output of the production industries in the UK. Figures are adjusted for seasonal variations unless otherwise stated and the reference year is 2009=100. For an explanation of the terms used in this bulletin, please see the Background Notes section. Care should be taken when using the month on month growth rates due to their volatility. An assessment of the quality of the production statistics is available in the background notes.
|Description||% of production||Month on same month a year ago growth (%)||Contribution to production (% points)||Month on previous month growth (%)||Contribution to production (% points)|
Headline figures for the Index of Production are:
Total Index of Production; Sector B Mining & quarrying; and within this Division 06 Oil & gas extraction; Sector C Manufacturing; Sector D Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning; and Sector E Water supply, sewerage & waste management.
Individual contributions may not sum to the total due to rounding.
|Sub-sector||Summary Description||% of production||Month on same month a year ago growth (%)||Contribution to production (% points)||Month on previous month growth (%)||Contribution to production (% points)|
|CA||Food, beverages and tobacco||11.9||-2.7||-0.35||-2.4||-0.31|
|CB||Textiles and leather products||2.0||-3.6||-0.07||0.2||0.00|
|CC||Wood, paper and printing||5.5||-9.3||-0.48||-0.6||-0.03|
|CD||Coke and petroleum||0.8||-29.8||-0.22||-19.6||-0.13|
|CG||Rubber and plastic products||4.7||-9.2||-0.44||-2.2||-0.10|
|CI||Computer, electronic & optical||4.3||8.7||0.34||2.1||0.09|
|CK||Machinery and equipment||4.8||-5.7||-0.37||-0.2||-0.01|
|CM||Other manufacturing & repair||4.5||-4.3||-0.20||-1.5||-0.07|
Manufacturing consists of 13 sub-sectors listed above with the percentage of the total they account for. The larger the percentage contribution, the more likely the impact on the overall manufacturing growth rate will be significant.
The seasonally adjusted index of mining & quarrying in October 2012 fell by 20.9 per cent compared with October 2011, while Oil & gas extraction decreased by 26.9 per cent contributing 20.2 percentage points to the fall in mining & quarrying.
The seasonally adjusted index of manufacturing in October 2012 fell by 2.1 per cent compared with October 2011. In detail:
Output decreased in nine of the 13 manufacturing sub-sectors and rose in four,
the largest contributions to the decrease in output came from the manufacture of chemicals & chemical products, which fell by 9.4 per cent, and in the manufacture of wood, paper products & printing, which fell by 9.3 per cent,
within the manufacture of chemicals & chemical products industries, the main falls were in petrochemicals, which fell by 19.5 per cent and, paints, varnishes & similar coatings, which fell by 14.8 per cent,
within the manufacture of wood, paper products & printing industries, the main falls were in the printing & reproduction of recorded media, which fell by 15.1 per cent and paper & paper products, which fell by 2.9 per cent,
chemicals & chemical products contributed approximately 0.8 percentage points to the 2.1 per cent month on same month a year ago fall in overall manufacturing with wood, paper products & printing contributing approximately 0.7 percentage points.
The seasonally adjusted index of the electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply industries in October 2012 rose by 9.1 per cent compared with October 2011. The main movements were:
electric power generation, transmission & distribution which rose by 10.2 per cent, and contributed 8.5 percentage points to the 9.1 per cent month on same month a year ago rise,
manufacture of gas & gas distribution, which rose by 3.7 per cent, and contributed 0.6 percentage points to the 9.1 per cent month on same month a year ago rise.
The seasonally adjusted index of the water supply, sewerage & waste management industries in October 2012 rose by 2.4 per cent compared with October 2011. The main movement was in sewerage, which rose by 6.9 per cent and contributed 2.3 percentage points to the overall rise in water supply & waste management.
This release conforms to the standard revisions policy for National Accounts (27.8 Kb Pdf) . In this release, periods from January 2011 are open for revision.
Since last month, there has been a number of late responses to the Monthly Business Survey and the re-estimation of the seasonal-adjustment factors. This has resulted in a downwards revision of 0.4 percentage points for the month on month growth rate in September 2012.
The monthly United Kingdom (UK) Index of Production (IoP) provides a timely indicator of growth in the output of production industries at constant prices. The IoP is a key economic indicator and one of the earliest short-term measures of economic activity and shares exactly the same industry coverage as the corresponding quarterly series within UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The main output is a seasonally adjusted estimate of total production and broad sector groupings of mining & quarrying, manufacturing, energy and water supply & sewerage. In general, seasonally adjusted output estimates are available down to the National Accounts Supply Use Table (SUT) level.
Output estimates are calculated by taking value estimates and adjusting them to remove the impact of price changes, or by using direct volume estimates. The total IoP estimate and various breakdowns are widely used in private and public sector institutions, particularly the Bank of England and Her Majesty’s Treasury, to assist in informed policy and decision making.
Summary statistic tables (41.5 Kb Excel sheet) showing current growth rates compared with historical information for the IoP and the Index of Manufacturing (IoM) are available as part of this release.
This release conforms to the standard revisions policy for National Accounts. In this release, periods from January 2011 are open for revision.
An article outlining the ONS policy on special events is available.
Queen's Diamond Jubilee
As part of the celebrations for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee there were changes to bank holidays in May and June 2012. The late May bank holiday moved into June, and there was an additional day's holiday. The change to the holidays counts as a statistical special event in line with ONS's policy on Special Events. Caution should be taken when interpreting the movements in affected outputs that involve May and June 2012.
Olympics and Paralympics
The Olympics took place from 27 July to 12 August 2012 (with a few events starting on 25 July), and the Paralympics from 29 August to 9 September. For most economic statistics, any direct effect of the Olympics was mainly reflected in the August estimate, although some of the Paralympics-associated activity took place in September. Wider effects, for example if the presence of the Olympics has influenced the number of non-Olympics tourist visits, may of course affect any of the summer months.
This commentary is intended to help users to interpret the statistics in the light of events. As explained in ONS’s Special Events policy, it is not possible to make an estimate of the effect of the Olympics and Paralympics on particular series, only on the basis of information collected in those series. More details of how certain series are affected are in an Information Note, and an article explaining how various elements are reflected in the National Accounts was published in July 2012.
The Index of Production release for November 2012 will have a revisions period back to October 2012.
Code of Practice for Official Statistics
National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. © Crown copyright 2012.
Understanding the data
Short guide to the Index of Production
This Statistical Bulletin gives details of the index of output of the production industries in the United Kingdom. Index numbers of output in this Statistical Bulletin are on the base 2009=100 and are classified to the 2007 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). The production industries, which accounted for 15.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2009, cover mining and quarrying (Sector B), manufacturing (Sector C), gas and electric (Sector D), and water supply and sewerage (Sector E).
Interpreting the data
The non-seasonally adjusted series contain elements relating to the impact of the standard reporting period, moving holidays and trading day activity. When making comparisons it is recommended that users focus on seasonally adjusted estimates as these have the seasonal effects and systematic calendar related components removed.
Figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in light of (a) late responses to surveys and administrative sources and (b) revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month and reviewed annually (changes from the latest review are included in this release).
Definitions and explanations
Definitions found within the main statistical bulletin are listed here:
Chained volume measure: An index number from a chain index of quantity. The index number for the reference period of the index may be set equal to 100 or to the estimated monetary value of the item in the reference period.
Index number: A measure of the average level of prices, quantities or other measured characteristics relative to their level for a defined reference period or location. It is usually expressed as a percentage.
Seasonally adjusted: Seasonal adjustment aids interpretation by removing effects associated with the time of the year or the arrangement of the calendar, which could obscure movements of interest.
Use of the data
The IoP is a key economic indicator and one of the earliest short-term measures of economic activity. The main output is a seasonally adjusted estimate of total production and broad sector groupings of mining & quarrying, manufacturing, energy and water supply & sewerage. The total IoP estimate and various breakdowns are widely used in private and public sector institutions, particularly the Bank of England and Her Majesty’s Treasury, to assist in informed policy and decision making.
An article about the Index of Production methodology (147.9 Kb Pdf) is available on the National Statistics website.
Composition of the data
The Index of Production uses a variety of different data from sources which are produced on either a quarterly or monthly basis.
Most of the series are derived using current price turnover deflated by a suitable price index. This includes the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) data; an ONS short-term survey on different sectors of the economy. It is one of the main data sources used in the compilation of the Index of Production.
The index numbers in this Statistical Bulletin are all seasonally adjusted. This aids interpretation by removing annually recurring fluctuations, for example, due to holidays or other regular seasonal patterns. Unadjusted data are also available.
Seasonal adjustment removes regular variation from a time series. Regular variation includes effects due to month lengths, different activity near particular events such as shopping activity before Christmas, and regular holidays such as the May bank holiday. Some features of the calendar are not regular each year, but are predictable if we have enough data - for example the number of certain days of the week in a month may have an effect, or the impact of the timing of Easter. As Easter changes between March and April we can estimate its effect on time series and allocate it between March and April depending on where Easter falls. Estimates of the effects of day of the week and Easter are used respectively to make trading day and Easter adjustments prior to seasonal adjustments.
Although leap years only happen every four years, they are predictable and regular and their impact can be estimated. Hence, if there is a leap year effect, it is removed as part of regular seasonal adjustment.
It is common for the value of a group of financial transactions to be measured in several time periods. The values measured will include both the change in the volume sold and the effect of the change of prices over that year. Deflation is the process whereby the effect of price change is removed from a set of values.
All series, unless otherwise quoted, are measured at constant basic prices. Deflators adjust the value series to take out the effect of price change to give the volume series.
Basic quality information
A common pitfall in interpreting data is that expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high. Revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade off between timeliness and accuracy. Early estimates are based on incomplete data.
Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of ‘errors’ in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical ‘error’ but in this context the word refers to the uncertainty inherent in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modelling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques, or the incorporation of new information which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced. Only rarely are there avoidable ‘errors’ such as human or system failures, and such mistakes are made quite clear when they do occur.
Summary quality report
A summary quality report (130.1 Kb Pdf) for this Statistical Bulletin can now be found on the National Statistics website.
The 2005 median annual growth of MPI turnover, their associated standard errors and quality bands can now be found on the National Statistics website.
National Accounts revisions policy
Figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in light of (a) late responses to the Monthly Business Survey MBS and (b) revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every period.
The Index of Production release for November 2012 will have a revisions period back to October 2012.
National Accounts revision policy (27.8 Kb Pdf) can be found on the National Statistics website.
One indication of the reliability of the key indicators in this bulletin can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. The table below is based on the revisions which have occurred over the last five years. Please note that these indicators only report summary measures for revisions. The revised data may, themselves, be subject to sampling or other sources of error.
The following table presents a summary of the differences between the first estimates published between November 2006 and October 2011 and the estimates published 12 months later.
|Growth rates||Value in latest period||Average||Absolute average|
|Production - 3 month||-1.0||-0.15||0.31|
|Manufacturing - 3 month||-0.7||-0.14||0.37|
|Production - 1 month||-0.8||-0.11||*||0.27|
|Manufacturing - 1 month||-1.3||-0.09||0.30|
Spreadsheets give revisions triangles (3.5 Mb ZIP) of estimates for all months from March 1998 through to the current month.
A statistical test has been applied to the average revisions to find out if they are statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) indicates if a figure has been found to be statistically significant from zero.
The table uses historical data for the most recent 60 months, comparing the estimate at first publication with the estimate as published 12 months later. The numbers which underpin these averages will include normal changes due to late data and re-seasonal adjustment, but also significant methodological changes, the most recent being the introduction of the 2007 Standard Industrial Classification in October 2011.
Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the press office. Also available is a list of those given pre-publication access to the contents of this release (74 Kb Pdf) .
A complete set of series in the Statistical Bulletin are available to download free of charge on the Data section of the National Statistics website. Alternatively, for low-cost tailored data, call Online Services on 02075335675 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
The complete run of data in the tables of this Statistical Bulletin is also available to view and download in electronic format free of charge using the ONS Time Series Data service. Users can download the complete bulletin in a choice of zipped formats, or view and download their own selections of individual series.
ONS provides an analysis of past revisions in the IoP and other Statistical Bulletins (244.6 Kb Pdf) (previously known as First Release) which present time series. Details can be found on the National Statistics website.
ONS publishes revisions triangles (65.8 Kb Pdf) for all the main published key indicators on the National Statistics website.
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Next publication: Friday 11 January 2013.
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