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International Compendium: Population Theme

Released: 24 April 2014 Download PDF

Introduction

The International Compendium consists of three themes; Economy, Labour Market and Population. The purpose of the compendium is to bring together a selection of comparable statistics for the UK and other European and non European countries along with a series of charts and commentary. Comparisons are made at a number of levels throughout the compendium with a focus on European comparisons, as well as wider international comparison, for example G7 countries or individual countries from Europe and elsewhere. A data catalogue is also included for each theme that provides links to the sources used in the commentary as well as links to additional sources of information.

The compendium draws on a number of sources of information which include existing ONS releases and data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat (the statistical office of the European Union).  The focus is therefore on existing published information and the compendium covers a broad range of information across the three themes. ONS intends to build on this initial version of the compendium to include further statistics and analysis. We would, therefore, welcome comments on the format and content of the compendium so that it can develop further over time.

In the population theme we bring together information on migration, country of birth information, life expectancy, and data for urban areas.

Migration data

ONS publishes information on migration to and from the UK and this section provides a summary of some of the key estimates.

The latest long-term international migration estimates for the year ending September 2013 show that:

  • 532,000 people immigrated to the UK;

  • 320,000 people emigrated from the UK;

  • net migration (the difference between these figures) was 212,000.

This data is sourced from the ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, February 2014

Figure 1.1: Long Term International Migration, 1970 to 2012 (annual), year ending March, June and September 2013

provisional

Figure 1.1: Long Term International Migration, 1970 to 2012 (annual), year ending March, June and September 2013
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Since 1994, net migration has been positive every year and rose sharply after 1997. During the 2000s, net migration peaked in 2004/05, in part as a result of immigration of citizens from the countries that joined the EU in 2004. Since the peak, annual net migration has fluctuated between around 150,000 and 250,000. Latest provisional estimates show net migration was 212,000 in the year ending September 2013.

The changes to net migration shown in Figure 1 have been caused by changes in immigration and emigration. In some years, net migration increased as a result of increased immigration (for example, in 2004/05) and in other years it has increased because emigration has fallen (for example in 2007). Latest figures for the year ending September 2013 show that immigration has increased slightly (although not a statistically significant change) by 35,000 to 532,000 from 497,000 during the previous year. Additionally, emigration has fallen slightly (although again not a statistically significant change) from 343,000 to 320,000. The combined increase in immigration and decrease in emigration has resulted in a statistically significant increase in net migration to 212,000 from 154,000.

Recent patterns in total net migration have been affected by different changes in migration flows between EU citizens and non-EU citizens. Net migration of EU citizens doubled from 65,000 in the year ending September 2012 to 131,000 in the year ending September 2013, a statistically significant increase. Conversely, the estimate of net migration of non-EU citizens has declined over the last few years. Although the recent fall to 141,000 in the year ending September 2013 from 160,000 in the previous year was not a statistically significant change, non-EU net migration remains at a lower level relative to the 2005 and 2010 peaks (Figure 1.2).

Figure 1.2: Long Term International Net Migration by Citizenship, 1975 to 2012 (annual), year ending March, June and September 2013

provisional

Figure 1.2: Long Term International Net Migration by Citizenship, 1975 to 2012 (annual), year ending March, June and September 2013
Source: Office for National Statistics

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The estimated number of British citizens emigrating long-term from the UK in the year ending September 2013 was 138,000, which although lower is statistically at a similar level to the 150,000 in the year ending September 2012 (Figure 3). Emigration of British citizens is now 33% lower than at its most recent peak of 207,000 in the year ending December 2006, and has remained at around the same level since 2010.

Figure 1.3: Long-term international migration estimates of British citizens, UK, 2003–2013 (year ending September 2013)

Figure 1.3: Long-term international migration estimates of British citizens, UK, 2003–2013 (year ending September 2013)
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Provisional Long Term International Migration estimates for the year ending September 2013 show that work-related reasons are the most common reason given for migrating to the UK. Between 2009 and 2012 formal study had been the most common main reason for immigration to the UK. An estimated 218,000 long-term migrants arrived to the UK for work-related reasons in the year ending September 2013. This is a statistically significant increase when compared to the estimate of 175,000 in the year ending September 2012. An estimated 176,000 long-term migrants arrived to the UK to study in the year ending September 2013. Although not a statistically significant change, this estimate is lower than the 187,000 who arrived to study in the year ending September 2012 (Figure 1.4).

The third most common reason for migrating to the UK is to accompany/join. In the year ending September 2013, 66,000 people migrated to the UK to accompany or join relatives; this figure is similar to the estimate of 63,000 who migrated for this reason in the year previously. (Figure 1.4).

Figure 1.4: Long-term international migration estimates of immigration to the UK, by main reason for migration, 2004–2013 (year ending September 2013)

Figure 1.4: Long-term international migration estimates of immigration to the UK, by main reason for migration, 2004–2013 (year ending September 2013)
Source: Office for National Statistics

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This section contains the latest available figures on emigration from the UK by reason.

In the latest available provisional LTIM estimates for the year ending September 2013, work-related reasons continue to be the main reason given for emigration and account for 58% of emigrants. An estimated 187,000 people emigrated from the UK for work-related reasons in the year ending September 2013. This is similar to the year ending September 2012 when 198,000 people emigrated for work-related reasons (Figure 1.5).

In the year ending September 2013, of those 187,000 emigrants leaving for work-related reasons, 114,000 (61%) left for a definite job, lower than the estimated 127,000 (64%) in the year ending September 2012. The remaining 73,000 (39%) left to look for work. The relative proportions of definite job and looking for work have remained fairly constant over time.

The numbers of British citizens emigrating was estimated at 138,000 for the year ending September 2013. IPS data show that migration patterns of British citizens have been driven by the number of British citizens leaving the UK for work-related reasons (76,000 in the year ending September 2013), which is just over half (59%) of all British emigrants.

Figure 1.5: Long-term international migration estimates of emigration from the UK, by main reason, 2003–2013 (year ending September 2013)

Figure 1.5: Long-term international migration estimates of emigration from the UK, by main reason, 2003–2013 (year ending September 2013)
Source: Office for National Statistics

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For more information on migration please visit the Migration Statistics Quarterly Report

Country of Birth Data

In 2012, India was the most common non-UK country of birth. 729,000 residents of the UK were born in India (9.5% of the total number of non-UK born residents in the UK). By comparison, in 2004, 502,000 residents of the UK were born in India (9.6% of the total number of non-UK born residents in the UK). Therefore, there has been a statistically significant increase of 227,000 Indian born residents in the UK between 2004 and 2012.

In 2012, the top 5 countries of birth for usual residents born outside the UK were India, Poland, Pakistan, Republic of Ireland, and Germany. Figure 2.1 shows the usual resident population in the UK for individuals born in these countries for the years 2008 to 2012.

Figure 2.1: Five most common countries of birth in the UK in 2012, 2008 to 2012

Figure 2.1: Five most common countries of birth in the UK in 2012, 2008 to 2012
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Figure 2.2 shows changes in the population of the UK by non-UK country of birth from 2004 to 2012. In 2012, approximately 1 in 8 (12.4%) of the usually resident population of the UK were born outside of the UK. This equates to 7,679,000 residents. By comparison, in 2004, approximately 1 in 11 (8.9%) of the usually resident population of the UK were born outside of the UK. This equates to 5,233,000 residents. Therefore, there has been a statistically significant increase of 2,446,000 non-UK born usual residents between 2004 and 2012.

Comparing 2012 data with estimates for 2010 and 2011, the increase in the non-UK born population of the UK (from 7,139,000 to 7,679,000) between 2010 and 2012 is statistically significant. This increase has been driven by residents born in the EU, as there were also statistically significant increases between 2010 and 2012 in the non-UK born population from the EU13 (864,000 to 955,000), the EU8 (805,000 to 1,014,000), and the EU26 (2,283,000 to 2,609,000). There were no statistically significant changes between 2011 and 2012.

Focussing on usual residents born outside of the UK, the estimated population born in the EU8 increased significantly between 2004 and 2008 (from 167,000 to 689,000). This increase was driven by accession and the widened opportunities for EU8 nationals to live and work in the UK.

Figure 2.2: Estimate of the resident population of the UK by non-UK country of Birth, 2004 to 2012

Figure 2.2: Estimate of the resident population of the UK by non-UK country of Birth, 2004 to 2012
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Figure 2.3 shows changes in the population of the UK by non-British nationality from 2004 to 2012.

In 2012, approximately 1 in 13 (7.8%) of the usually resident population of the UK held non-British nationality. This equates to 4,852,000 residents. By comparison, in 2004, approximately 1 in 20 (5.0%) of the usually resident population of the UK were non-British nationals. This equates to 2,946,000 residents. Therefore, there has been a statistically significant increase of 1,906,000 non-British nationals between 2004 and 2012.

Comparing 2012 data with estimates for 2010 and 2011, the increase in non-British nationals residing in the UK (4,460,000 to 4,852,000) between 2010 and 2012 is statistically significant. This increase has been driven by nationals of EU countries as there were also statistically significant increases between 2010 and 2012 in the non-British national population from the EU8 (829,000 to 1,074,000) and the EU26 (2,003,000 to 2,343,000). There were no statistically significant changes between 2011 and 2012.

Figure 2.3: Estimate of the resident population of the UK by non-British nationality, 2004 to 2012

Figure 2.3: Estimate of the resident population of the UK by non-British nationality, 2004 to 2012
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Life Expectancy

From the selected countries in figure 3.1, Iceland had the highest male life expectancy at birth of 80.8 years in 2012, while Latvia had the lowest at 69.1 years. Life expectancy at birth for males in UK was 78.9 years in 2010-2012, higher than France at 78.4 and Germany at 77.7 years.

Although men living in the UK had lower life expectancy at birth than 10 of the countries shown in figure 3.1, the difference between theirs and Iceland’s is less than two years and shows the potential for further increases in future male life expectancy.

Compared to the countries in figure 3.1 Iceland also had the highest life expectancy at age 65 in 2012 at 19.2 years. Again Latvia was the lowest at 13.5 years. Men in the UK have on average 18.4 years of life remaining at age 65, which is above Norway at 18.2 years, despite Norway having a higher life expectancy at birth. The figure for the UK at age 65 has a difference of less than one year from the highest shown in figure 3.1.

Figure 3.1: Life Expectancy of Males: 2012 unless otherwise stated

Figure 3.1: Life Expectancy of Males: 2012 unless otherwise stated
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Figure 3.2 shows that out of the 21 selected countries Japanese females had the highest life expectancy at birth of 86.4 years in 2012. Females in Brazil had the lowest life expectancy at 77.7 years. Life expectancy at birth for females in the UK was 82.8 years, 3.6 years lower than Japan’s. This shows the potential for further increases in female life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth for females in the UK is higher than in Germany and Denmark. Females in France appear to be doing better than their male counterparts when being compared with the other countries shown in figures 3.1 and 3.2. French females had the third highest life expectancy at birth and males had the 12th highest compared with the other countries shown figure 3.1 and 3.2.

Japanese women had the highest life expectancy at age 65, at 23.8 years in 2012. Of the 21 selected countries, women in Latvia had the lowest life expectancy at age 65 at 18.4 years. Women in the UK having celebrated their 65th birthday had on average a further 20.9 years of life, more than women in Germany (20.7 years) and in Denmark (20.0 years).

Figure 3.2: Life Expectancy of Females: 2012 unless otherwise stated

Figure 3.2: Life Expectancy of Females: 2012 unless otherwise stated
Source: Office for National Statistics

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In 2012 there were 806 people aged 90 and over per 100,000 population in the UK. Japan had by far the highest number of people aged 90 and over per 100,000 population at 1,197. With the exception of Japan, Europe (excluding Eastern European countries) tends to have the highest number of people aged 90 and over per 100,000 population compared to other regions of the world. Countries with more recently emerging economies such as China and India have relatively lower numbers of people aged 90 and over per 100,000 population.

According to the UN, in 2013 there were 441,000 centenarians in the world. Even in the most aged countries the population aged 100 and over represents a very small proportion of the overall population. In 2012, people aged 100 and over accounted for only 0.02% of the total UK population, or 21 per 100,000 population. However, in comparison to many other countries, the UK has relatively high numbers of centenarians (Figure 3.3). The prevalence of centenarians internationally largely mirrors that of the 90 and over population. In 2012, Japan had the highest number of centenarians per 100,000 population in the world at 40 while within Europe, France had the highest number at 30. Eastern European countries have lower rates of centenarians than countries in Western Europe. Russia in particular has a low number of centenarians (4) per 100,000 population, reflecting their relatively low life expectancy among developed nations.

Figure 3.3: Centenarians per 100,000 of the population, by country, 2012

Figure 3.3: Centenarians per 100,000 of the population, by country, 2012
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Urban Audit Data

Approximately 80 per cent of the population of Europe lives in cities, and the Urban Audit project provide statistics for these areas - over 300 cities across 31 (European Union countries plus, Turkey, Croatia, Norway and Switzerland) countries and for over 300 statistical indicators. Urban Audit is a European Commission sponsored project to collect quantitative information on the quality of life in European cities in support of European Union (EU) policy initiatives on urban development. It is a joint project between Eurostat (Europe’s statistical office) and the respective statistical offices for each country. The data for Urban Audit IV, the most recent Urban Audit project, was collected during 2011 with a reference period of 2008.

Figure 4.1 shows how the annual growth of these cities has varied over the previous 5 years. Oslo, Murcia and Manchester have seen the largest annual growth of around 2 per cent per year, whilst, Liverpool, Hannover and Glasgow have seen only small growth. Belfast was the only city in this comparison to have seen a population decline, at around 0.24 per cent per year.

Figure 4.1: Average annual population change over 5 years, 2003-2008

Figure 4.1: Average annual population change over 5 years, 2003-2008
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Housing costs are a major factor in the cost of living. Figure 4.2 shows the cost of a house per m2. These housing costs will in turn influence mortgage or rent costs, which form part of the cost of living.

Figure 4.2: Average price of a house per m2 (Euros)

Figure 4.2: Average price of a house per m2 (Euros)
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Of the cities in this comparison, Madrid and Oslo, both capital cities, have the highest house prices per m2 (around 4,000 euros per m2) followed by Edinburgh and Valencia (around 3,000 euros per m2). Liverpool, Hannover and Bradford are the lowest in this comparison, at around 1,700 euros per m2. No data were provided for London, but it seems likely that house prices there are amongst the highest in Europe.

Creating skills, and attracting and retaining people with the right skills is important to the success of businesses and in turn important to the economic prosperity of a city. Different cities have a differing mix of industry and different industries need different workforce skills, however a broad measure of the skills that are created and exist in the population are shown in Figures 4.3 and 4.4. Figure 4.3 shows the number of students per 1,000 population who are in tertiary (post-secondary) education, whilst Figure 4.4 shows the proportion of the population who are qualified at tertiary level.

Figure 4.3: Students in tertiary education (ISCED levels 5-6)

Figure 4.3: Students in tertiary education (ISCED levels 5-6)
Source: Office for National Statistics

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UK cities had some of the highest proportions of students in tertiary education in this comparison. Manchester has the highest proportion of students in tertiary education at 138 per 1,000 population. Valencia had the next highest at around 114 per 1,000 population. At the other end of the spectrum Bradford had the lowest proportion of students in tertiary population at 22 per 1,000 population, almost half that of the next lowest cities, Berlin, Bristol and Greater London, with around 40 students per 1,000 population. These statistics are likely to be influenced by the educational institutions available within these cities and also the age-structure of the population.

The cities with the highest proportions of students studying at tertiary level do not necessarily have the highest proportion of the population who are qualified at this level. Manchester, which has the highest proportion of students in tertiary education, has one of the lowest proportions of the population qualified at tertiary level, at 27 per cent. Edinburgh has the highest proportion of the population qualified at tertiary level at 44 per cent, followed by Oslo with 42 per cent. Liverpool and Bradford have the lowest proportions qualified at tertiary level, at 20 and 21 per cent respectively.

Figure 4.4: Proportion of population qualified at tertiary level (ISCED levels 5-6)

Figure 4.4: Proportion of population qualified at tertiary level (ISCED levels 5-6)
Source: Office for National Statistics

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Background notes

  1. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Supporting information

Further information

Migration Statistics Quarterly Report - Collated migration data from the Office for National Statistics, Department for Work and Pensions and the Home Office, quarterly bulletin.
Content from the Office for National Statistics.
© Crown Copyright applies unless otherwise stated.