Trends in Crime - A Short Story 2011/12

Introduction

Published as a companion to the Quarterly First Release to March 2012, this narrative discusses the headline crime statistics for England and Wales in the context of longer-term trends, the wider research literature and international trends.

There are two principal sources of crime statistics – the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW, formerly known as the British Crime Survey) and police recorded crime statistics. Each source has different strengths and limitations (see box 1.1¹), but together they provide a more comprehensive picture of crime and victimisation. The headline crime statistics also draw on other sources including incidents of anti-social behaviour recorded by the police and crimes dealt with by the courts, which are not covered in the main police recorded crime count or by the CSEW.

Box 1.1 Strengths and limitations of the Crime Survey and police recorded crime

Figure 1 shows how the latest data from each source breaks down into its key offence groups. This shows that the majority of both CSEW crimes (in the 2011/12 survey) and crimes recorded by the police in 2011/12 were theft, violence, and vandalism or criminal damage offences. This pattern is similar to that seen in recent years; although the next section shows that substantial changes have taken place over the long-term.

Figure 1 Police recorded and CSEW crimes 2011/12, by crime type

Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales - Office for National Statistics, Home Office

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Notes

1. For more information see the User Guide to Crime Statistics for England and Wales (483.8 Kb Pdf) or the ‘Further Information’ section of the first release.

2. See section 3.2 of the User Guide. (483.8 Kb Pdf)

What is happening to overall levels of crime and anti-social behaviour?

Latest figures in the first release show an estimated 9.5 million CSEW crimes in England and Wales based on results from the 2011/12 survey. This was a similar volume to that estimated from the previous two years (9.6 million from the 2010/11 survey and 9.5 million from the 2009/10 CSEW). The 2011/12 CSEW also estimated that a further 1.0 million personal crimes were committed against children aged 10 to 15. The coverage of children in the CSEW is a fairly recent addition¹  and so it is not possible to present trends at this point in time.

The police recorded crime series showed a 4 per cent reduction in the volume of offences between 2010/11 and 2011/12, falling from 4.2 million to 4.0 million offences, with falls in most offence groups. In addition, the police recorded 2.7 million incidents of anti-social behaviour (ASB) in 2011/12. Although the latest ASB incident figures are compiled using different underlying classification from previous years, figures for the period 2007/08 to 2010/11 show declines in the number of ASB incidents recorded by the police, consistent with recent downward trends in total police recorded crime².

The police recorded crime series coverage is generally restricted to notifiable offences which are, or can be, heard at a crown court. A range of non-notifiable offences are dealt with by prosecution at a magistrates’ court or through the police issuing on the spot sanctions (such as a Penalty Notice for Disorder or a Fixed Penalty Notice). The latest information in the first release on such offences from the Ministry of Justice relates to the 2011 calendar year and shows there were 1.1 million convictions for non-notifiable offences – a decrease of 7 per cent since the previous year. The police issued 1.8 million Fixed Penalty Notices in 2010 (just over half of which related to speeding)³; and 46,000 Penalty Notices for Disorder were issued for non-notifiable crimes in 2011.

The CSEW is able to estimate what proportion of households and adults were victims of crimes (covered by the survey) in the previous 12 months⁴. The latest estimates from the 2011/12 survey are similar to those found the previous year. In relation to households⁵:

• 6 in 100 households had experienced vandalism of household property (for example, scratching of car bodywork or breaking a fence or wall).

• 5 in 100 households owning vehicles had been victims of a vehicle-related theft (including theft from vehicles, theft of vehicles and attempted thefts of/from).

• 2 in 100 households had experienced a burglary in a dwelling (in half of these cases nothing was taken).

• 16 in 100 households had been victims of any of the household crimes covered by the survey^6.

With regard to crimes experienced at the individual level⁷ the 2011/12 survey found:

• 3 in 100 adults had experienced a violent crime (around a half experiencing violence with injury).

• 2 in 100 adults had experienced ‘other theft of personal property’ (that is, theft of personal property not being carried by the person at the time, such as theft of unattended bags, wallets, and mobile phones).

• 1 in 100 adults had been victims of theft from the person (for example, pick-pocketing).

• 6 in 100 adults had been victims of any of the personal crimes covered by the survey.

While not directly comparable with adult estimates⁸, children aged 10 to 15 experienced higher levels of violence and theft with:

• 8 in 100 children having been victims of violent crime, and

• 8 in 100 children experiencing theft while away from the home.

Notes for What is happening to overall levels of crime and anti-social behaviour?

1. See section 3.2 of the User guide (483.8 Kb Pdf) .

2. See the ‘Crime experienced by children aged 10-15’ section of the first release.

3. For details see the ‘anti-social behaviour’ section of the first release.

4. Source: Police Powers and Procedures 2010/11 (Home Office, 2012, Table FPN.02).

5. See Appendix table A3 (785 Kb Excel sheet) for victimisation rates for all CSEW offence groups since 1981.

6. For items damaged or stolen and other details, see the Home Office’s 2010/11 CSEW ‘nature of vandalism’ ‘nature of vehicle-related theft'  ‘nature of burglary’ ‘nature of other household theft’ tables.

7. CSEW crimes committed against households include burglary, vandalism, vehicle-related theft and bicycle theft.

8. For details on these crimes see the Home Office’s 2010/11 CSEW ‘nature of personal and other theft’ and ‘nature of violence’.

9. Note that the method of counting crime for adults and children are not directly comparable, and estimates for 10-15 year olds are based on a ‘preferred’ measure which best reflects childhood experiences of crime. See the ‘Crime experienced by children aged 10-15’ section in the first release for more information.

How do these latest figures compare with longer-term trends?

Estimates from the CSEW now span a 30 year period. Figure 2 shows several distinct patterns over this period:

• The survey showed a rising trend between 1981 and 1995.

• There were substantial falls in crime until the 2004/05 survey.

• CSEW crimes then decreased slowly between 2004/05 and 2009/10 (with few year-on-year statistically significant changes).

• CSEW crimes have flattened out in the last three years.

It is not possible to make long-term comparisons in police recorded crime due to fundamental changes in the recording of crimes introduced in 1998 and April 2002¹. Since 2002/03 the police recorded crime figures have shown steady year-on-year decreases and the latest figures indicate that the number of crimes recorded by the police has fallen by a third over the last decade.

Figure 2 Trends in recorded crime and CSEW, 1981 to 2011/12

Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales - Office for National Statistics, Home Office

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The latest results show 2011/12 CSEW crime levels to be over 50 per cent lower than their mid-90s peak of 19.1 million crimes per annum. Figure 3 below indicates the size of these decreases in terms of the proportion of people or households who were victim of one or more crimes broken down by offence type, showing how the composition of overall crime has changed over the period.

 

Figure 3 Proportions of people or households being victim once or more, 1995 and 2011/12 CSEW, by offence type

Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales - Office for National Statistics, Home Office

Notes:

1. Vehicle-related theft and bicycle theft figures relate to the vehicle-owning and bicycle populations only

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There have been some substantial reductions in victimisation rates, including:

• A sharp reduction in the proportion of households who had experienced a burglary between the 1995 survey and the 2011/12 CSEW (6 per cent and 2 per cent respectively).

• The proportion of vehicle-owning households who have suffered a vehicle-related theft has dropped by an even greater extent, from 20 per cent to 5 per cent, over the same period.

Notes for How do these latest figures compare with longer-term trends?

1. These changes mean that it is not possible to make direct comparisons with police recorded crime figures from before 2002/03. For more information see Section 3 of the User guide (483.8 Kb Pdf) .

What is happening to overall levels of violent crime?

Violent crime contains a wide range of offences¹ , around a half of which involve no injury to the victim. This is true of both CSEW and police recorded violence offences. While the volume of violent crime estimated by the CSEW has fluctuated in recent years, there has been no statistically significant year-on-year change in each of the last four years.

The latest police recorded violence figures show a reduction in volume of 7 per cent, down from 822,000 offences in 2010/11 to 763,000 offences in 2011/12. This has continued a general downward trend since 2006/07, with year-on-year reductions in the range of four to eight per cent in each of the last five years. Decreases were also shown in 2011 survey of NHS hospital accident and emergency departments in England and Wales (Sivarajasingam, et al., 2011) and with official statistics on hospital admissions for violent assault for the 12 months ending September 2011².

Figure 4 shows CSEW 2011/12 violent offences by two of the three available breakdowns³.

Figure 4 Nature of CSEW violence offences 2011/12 CSEW

Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

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The latest CSEW estimates showed that:

• Of the 2 million violence offences from the CSEW 2011/12, around a quarter involved wounding^4.

• There were similar proportions of violent offences where the offender was known to the victim (domestic violence and acquaintance violence) and those where the offender was typically not known (mugging and stranger violence).

• Robberies and muggings (which include snatch theft), made up small proportions of all violent crimes.

• Children were more likely to be victims of violent crime than adults with 8 per cent of 10 to 15 year olds having been victims in the last year compared with 3 per cent of adults^5.

Around 2 per cent of adults experienced ‘violence with injury’ according to the 2011/12 survey. To put this in context it represents a similar proportion of the population to that estimated to have been injured in traffic accidents according to analysis recently published by the Department for Transport (based on the 2009/10 CSEW, and the National Travel Survey from 2007 to 2009)⁶.

Notes for What is happening to overall levels of violent crime?

1. CSEW robbery is included in the total violence numbers whereas for police recorded crime the offence is presented separately.

2. Based on the latest available Hospital Episode Statistics.

3. See Appendix tables A1 – A3 (785 Kb Excel sheet) .

4. Injuries include broken bones, severe bruising and severe cuts.

5. Note that the method of counting crime for adults and children are not directly comparable, and estimates for 10-15 year olds are based on a ‘preferred’ measure which best reflects childhood experiences of crime. See the ‘Crime experienced by children aged 10-15’ section in the first release for more information.

6. Based on table 5a of the Department for Transport’s ‘Reported road casualties Great Britain 2009: annual report’.

What is happening to more serious violent crime?

The latest police recorded crime figures point to reductions in a number of the more serious categories of violent offences. For example:

• Provisional data show that 550 homicides¹ were recorded in 2011/12, a decrease of 14 per cent compared with 2010/11 when 638 homicides were recorded.

• The number of attempted murders also fell from 523 to 483 (a decrease of 8 per cent).

• The police recorded 9 per cent fewer offences of grievous bodily harm with intent in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11.

The number of homicides has increased from around 300 per year in the early 1960s to over 800 per year in the early years of this century². More recently the number of homicides has fallen and these provisional data show that homicide is at its lowest level since 1983 (when 550 were also recorded).

To put the latest homicide figures in context, there were three times as many victims of road deaths (1,715) reported to the police in England and Wales in 2011³ (although levels of deaths on the roads have also shown some marked decreases in recent years).

In addition, provisional data show that offences involving a firearm (other than air weapons) recorded by the police fell by 16 per cent (to 5,911) in 2011/12 compared with the previous year. This is consistent with a steady fall in offences involving a firearm since 2005/06, when more than 11,000 offences were recorded (annual trend tables D19 and D20).

It is not possible to make long-term comparisons with offences involving knives⁴; however the police recorded a 5 per cent decrease in selected offences (including homicide) that involved a knife or sharp instrument between 2010/11 and 2011/12 (32,711 and 30,999 offences respectively), a decrease broadly in line with that of overall police recorded crime (which was down 4 per cent) ( Annual trend and demographic table D18 (1.33 Mb Excel sheet) ).

As CSEW is a survey of victims it does not, of course, cover homicide. While serious wounding offences are included in the survey the relatively low volume means that the estimates are not produced for these offences in this series of releases.

Notes for What is happening to more serious violent crime?

1. Homicide includes the offences of murder, manslaughter and infanticide. Homicide data are provisional figures supplied by the police as at 13th June 2012. Final figures from the Homicide Index which takes account of further police investigations and court outcomes will be published in January 2013.

2. Homicide figures were not thought to be affected by changes in police recording practice so it is possible to examine longer-term trends from police recorded crime.

3. Based on table RAS3007 of the Department for Transport’s Reported road casualties Great Britain 2011.

4. West Midlands Police force included unbroken bottle and glass offences in their returns but now exclude these offences in line with other forces.

How do trends in violent crime compare with other countries?

It is of interest to compare the figures for England and Wales with those of other countries although such comparisons are difficult due to the absence of a standard international classification for crime recording and the differing legal systems. Homicide definitions vary less than for some other types of crimes (Smith, et al., 2012) and are the best comparative measure across time. Figures compiled by Eurostat, for the period between 2006 and 2009, show England and Wales to have lower than the EU average homicide rates (Tavares, et al, 2012).

Figure 5 Homicides per million people 2009, selected countries

Source: Eurostat

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Figure 5 shows that the homicide rate in England and Wales was higher in 2009 than that of the other most populous European countries such as Spain and Germany, but lower than that of the EU as a whole. Data for other OECD countries (such as Canada and the USA) suggest that rates across Europe were lower than those in other developed countries.

Homicide rates have fallen substantially since the mid 1990s, however, not just in Europe, but also in Asia, and North America (UNODC, 2011). Similarly, the recent reduction in violent crime recorded by the police in England and Wales is reflected in the EU and in the USA¹. While cross-country comparisons of police recorded violent crime are problematic, the rate of reduction in England and Wales has been faster over the period 2006-09 than that of the wider EU (a 17 per cent decrease compared with 7 per cent on average) (Tavares, et al., 2012).

Notes for How do trends in violent crime compare with other countries?

1. For example, the FBI’s Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report, January-December, 2011.

What is happening to the overall volume of robbery?

The small number of robbery victims interviewed in any one year means that CSEW estimates are prone to fluctuation. The number of robberies recorded by the police provides a more robust indication of trends than the CSEW.

The number of robberies recorded by the police in 2011/12 (74,690 offences) decreased by 2 per cent compared with 2010/11(76,189). With the exception of a notable rise in the number of robberies in 2005/06 and 2006/07 there has been a general downward trend between 2002/03 and 2009/10.

The numbers of robbery offences recorded for the past three years (around 75,000 per year) are lower than those in the rest of the comparable period (between 2002/03 and 2008/09). The geographic concentration of robbery means that trends across England and Wales tend to reflect what is happening in a small number of metropolitan areas. Figures 6 below show how the 2011/12 police recorded robbery is geographically distributed across different police force areas¹.

Figure 6 Police recorded robbery offences 2011/12, by police force area type

Source: Home Office

Notes:

1. British Transport Police data are excluded
2. London figures combine City of London and the Metropolitan police forces

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Figure 7 Police recorded robbery offences 2011/12 and 2010/11, by police force area type

Source: Home Office

Notes:

1. British Transport Police data are excluded
2. London figures combine City of London and the Metropolitan police forces

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Figure 6 shows that over half of all robberies recorded by the police in 2011/12 took place in London, compared with 21 per cent of all police recorded crime (a further 21 per cent of robberies and 17 per cent of all crime occurred in other metropolitan areas). Figure 7 shows that while robbery in London has increased in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11 (up 8 per cent) there have been falls seen in other police forces areas which have driven the overall reduction in robbery across England and Wales. Anecdotal evidence suggests that a major driver for the rise in robbery in London was an increase in thefts of smart phones.

Definitions of robbery are not as consistent between countries as definitions of homicide, and therefore it is not easy to determine whether England and Wales have relatively high or low levels of robbery. Data from Eurostat of changes in robbery, however, indicate that reductions in England and Wales between 2006 and 2009 were greater than those seen in most other European countries (Tavares et al., 2012).

Notes for What is happening to the overall volume of robbery?

1. Recorded crime figures for key offence groups by police force area (PFA) are available at PFA tables 2011-12 (485.5 Kb Excel sheet) .

What is happening to overall levels of acquisitive crime?

Acquisitive crime measured by the CSEW covers a range of high volume offences including burglary, vehicle-related thefts, and other thefts of personal and household property. In the police recorded crime series, it also covers thefts from commercial and other organisations¹.

The latest CSEW figures in the first release show that recent trends have been stable for both burglary and vehicle-related thefts. However, for both crime types this should be seen in the context of large reductions from peak levels seen in the mid-1990s. Estimates of the number of burglaries and vehicle–related thefts from the 2011/12 CSEW levels are 60 and 71 per cent lower respectively than 1995.

Police recorded crime data for 2011/12 compared with 2010/11 show reductions in vehicle crime (down 7 per cent) and burglary (down 4 per cent), continuing downward trends since 2002/03. Figure 8 below illustrates how CSEW estimates for selected acquisitive crime types have fallen since 1995.

Figure 8 CSEW acquisitive crimes indexed to 1995, 1995 to 2011/12

Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. Prior to 2001/02, CSEW estimates relate to crimes experienced in a given calendar year. From 2001/02 onwards the estimates relate to crimes experienced in the last 12 months based on interviews in the given financial year

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While levels of acquisitive crime remain well below their peak levels, the latest figures point to some recent increases in some theft offences. For example:

• While individual year on year changes have not been statistically significant, CSEW estimates indicate an underlying upward trend in ‘other household theft’, which has increased by 33 per cent since the 2007/08 survey. Around half of other household theft incidents involve theft of garden furniture or household items/furniture which are taken from outside the dwelling²; these thefts are generally opportunistic in nature.

• 'Other theft offences' recorded by the police also showed an increase, up by 2 per cent compared with 2010/11 (driven by theft of unattended property³, theft from the person, bicycle theft, and shoplifting).

• Police recorded crime figures for ‘theft from the person’ (which includes offences such as pick-pocketing) shows an 8 per cent increase comparing 2011/12 with 2010/11.

Reductions in acquisitive crime have been an important factor in driving falls in overall crime. Although there is little consensus on what has driven falls in these crimes, there is broad support for the view that improved vehicle and household security has been an important factor (Farrell et al., 2011). This hypothesis is supported by figures on the nature of crime from the CSEW (Moon, et al, 2010).

For example, the 2009/10 CSEW showed that households with ‘less than basic⁴ ’ home security measures were six times more likely to have been victims of burglary (6 per cent) than households with ‘basic’ security (1 per cent) (Flatley, et al., 2010). Between the 2002/03 and 2010/11 surveys the proportion of households with key home security measures (windows locks and double/deadlocks) increased by 9 and 10 percentage points respectively⁵. A number of other theories have been put forward to explain why these falls in crime have occurred. Many of these are contested. Theories include:

• Reduced consumption of drugs and alcohol (Bunge, et al., 2005).

• Demographic changes such as falling numbers of young men in the population (Fox, 2011).

• Changes in technology and infrastructure, including security technology (such as CCTV), and improved forensic methods (Farrell, 2010).

• Improved detection rates or longer prison sentences for repeat offenders.

• Changes to the probability and severity of punishment (Scottish Government, 2010), (Bandyopadhyay, 2012).

The marked crime drop seen since the mid-1990s coincides with the picture seen in many other developed economies. The International Crime Victimisation Survey (ICVS, Van Dijk, et al., 2008) suggests that, in general, acquisitive crime increased between 1988 and 1991 with a downward trend between 1996 and 2004 across the developed world.

The ‘security hypothesis’ suggests improved home and car security have been an important driver of crime rates internationally. Farrell, et al. (2010) show that decreases in the domestic burglary and vehicle theft rates occurred at different times in the UK, USA and Australia, but coincided in each country with increased take-up of security features.

Notes for What is happening to overall levels of acquisitive crime?

1. For more information see section 5.2 of the User guide (483.8 Kb Pdf) .

2. For items stolen and other details, see the Home Office’s 2010/11 CSEW ‘nature of other household theft’ tables.

3. This offence sub-group is known as ‘other theft and unauthorised taking’ offences.

4. ‘Basic’ home security refers to households fitted with window locks and double locks or deadlocks to outside doors.

5. See table 1.12 of the Home Office’s 2010/11 CSEW ‘nature of burglary’ tables.

Has the recent economic downturn led to a rise in acquisitive crime?

The rise in crime through the 1980s followed an economic downturn and rising unemployment. Many commentators therefore expected the current economic downturn to lead to increases in acquisitive crime. However, since the onset of the current economic downturn in late 2008, there has not been a rise in overall acquisitive crime, and many types of acquisitive crime (such as domestic burglary and vehicle theft) continue to show a flat or downward trend. However, as noted above there is evidence of more recent increases in some categories of theft.

One of the most marked rises in recent years has been in the recorded crime category of ‘Other theft or unauthorised taking’¹, which is up 2 per cent in 2011/12 compared with 2010/11 following a 10 per cent rise between 2009/10 and 2010/11. Although recorded crime statistics do not allow for the breakdown of this category by type of item stolen, it is known to include thefts of metal and metal cable. It is thought that metal theft has been an important contributor to rises in ‘other theft or unauthorised taking’ and this type of crime has also occurred in other countries, such as the USA, and is closely linked to metal commodity prices (Sidebottom, et al., 2011).

It is possible that the rise in metal theft is now slowing. This is supported by the latest figures from British Transport Police (BTP) which suggest the large increases in metal theft from the rail network between 2009/10 and 2010/11 are now slowing, with the BTP reporting a fall in theft of railway property², which is likely to be driven by metal theft.

Notes for Has the recent economic downturn led to a rise in acquisitive crime?

1. This includes offences of theft of unattended personal or household property (for example, a mobile phone not being carried on the person or a ladder stolen from a back garden) and also thefts against commercial and other organisations (for example, theft of metal or industrial equipment).

2. See Crime down on Britain’s railways.

Background notes

1. The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

   Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

   • meet identified user needs

   • are well explained and readily accessible

   • are produced according to sound methods

   • are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest

   Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.

2. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

3. Details of policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office.

4. You may re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence, or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, email: psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk.

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6. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

   The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

   Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

   • meet identified user needs;
   • are well explained and readily accessible;
   • are produced according to sound methods; and
   • are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest.

   Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.

References

1. Bandyopadhyay, S., 2012, ‘Acquisitive Crime: Imprisonment, Detection and Social Factors’, London: Civitas http://www.civitas.org.uk/wordpress/2012/07/09/coalitions-anti-prison-policies-ignore-moj-data-on-effectiveness-of-long-sentences/
2. Bunge, V., Johnson, H., and Baldé A., 2005, ‘Exploring Crime Patterns in Canada’, Crime and Justice Research Paper Series no. 5 http://publications.gc.ca/Collection/Statcan/85-561-MIE/85-561-MIE2005005.pdf
3. Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., and Mailley, J., 2010, ‘Explaining and sustaining the crime drop: clarifying the role of opportunity-related theories’, Crime Prevention and Community Safety 12, pp 24-41
4. Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., and Mailley, J., 2010, ‘Explaining and sustaining the crime drop: clarifying the role of opportunity-related theories’, Crime Prevention and Community Safety 12, pp 24-41
5. Flatley, J., Kershaw, C., Smith, K., Chaplin, R., and Moon, D., 2010, ‘Crime in England and Wales 2009/10’, Home Office Statistical Bulletin 12/10 http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110218135832/http:/rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/bcs-publications.html
6. Fox, C., 2011, ‘How will the recession affect crime rates in Greater Manchester?’, Safer Communities 10(3), pp 17-30
7. Home Office, 2012a, ‘Police Powers and Procedures 2010/11’ http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/police-research/hosb0712/
8. Levitt, D., 2004, ‘Understanding why crime fell in the 1990s: four factors that explain the decline and six that do not’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(1), pp 163-190
9. Moon, D., Flatley, J., Hoare, J., Green, B., and Murphy, R., 2010, ‘Acquisitive Crime and Plastic Card Fraud: Findings from the 2008/09 British Crime Survey’, Supplementary Volume 3 to Crime in England and Wales 2008/09, Home Office Statistical Bulletin 08/10 http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110218135832/rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs10/hosb0810.pdf
10. Office for National Statistics, 2012, ‘User Guide to Crime Statistics for England and Wales’ http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Crime+in+England+and+Wales
11. Scottish Government, 2010, ‘Crime and Macroeconomic Performance in Scotland’ http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/CrimEco
12. Sidebottom, A., Belur, J., Bowers, K., Tompson, L., Johnson, S., 2011, ‘Theft in Price-Volatile Markets: On the Relationship between Copper Price and Copper Theft’, Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 48(3), pp 396-418
13. Sivarajasingam, V., Wells, J.P., Moore, S., Morgan, P. and Shepherd, J.P., 2012, ‘Violence in England and Wales 2011. An accident and Emergency Perspective’ Cardiff: Cardiff University http://www.vrg.cf.ac.uk/nvit/NVIT_2011.pdf
14. Smith, K., Osborne, S., Lau, I., Britton, A., 2012, ‘Homicides, Firearm Offences and Intimate Violence 2010/11’, Supplementary Volume 2 to Crime in England and Wales 2010/11, Home Office Statistical Bulletin 02/12 http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/crime-research/hosb0212/
15. Tavares, C., Thomas, G., Bulut, F., 2012 ‘Crime and Criminal Justice, 2006-2009’, Statistics in Focus 6/2012, Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/product_details/publication?p_product_code=KS-SF-12-006
16. UNODC, 2011, ‘Global Study on Homicide’ http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/Homicide/Globa_study_on_homicide_2011_web.pdf
17. Van Dijk, J.J.M., van Kesteren, J.N. and Smit, P., 2008, ‘Criminal Victimisation in International Perspective, Key findings from the 2004-2005 ICVS and EU ICS’, The Hague: Boom Legal Publishers http://rechten.uvt.nl/icvs/pdffiles/ICVS2004_05.pdf