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Consumer Price Inflation Detailed Briefing Note, September 2013 (HTML Version) This product is designated as National Statistics

Released: 24 October 2013 Download PDF

Summary

Consumer Prices Index (CPI)

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and in line with European regulations. First published in 1997 as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the CPI is the inflation measure used in the Government’s target for inflation.

The CPI is also used for purposes such as uprating pensions, wages and benefits and can aid in the understanding of inflation on family budgets. For more information on the uses of the CPI see the article 'Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics'.

  • The all items CPI is 126.8, up from 126.4 in August.

  • The all items CPI annual rate is 2.7%, unchanged from last month.

  • The annual rate for CPI excluding indirect taxes, CPIY, is 2.8%, unchanged from last month.

  • The annual rate for CPI at constant tax rates, CPI-CT, is 2.5%, down from 2.6% last month.

  • The CPI all goods index is 121.5, up from 120.5 in August.

  • The CPI all goods index annual rate is 2.1%, down from 2.4% last month.

  • The CPI all services index is 133.5, down from 133.8 in August.

  • The CPI all services index annual rate is 3.4%, up from 3.0% last month.

CPIH

CPIH is a new measure of UK consumer price inflation that includes owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH). These are the costs of housing services associated with owning, maintaining and living in one’s own home. OOH does not include costs such as utility bills and minor repairs and maintenance which are already included in the index. CPIH uses an approach called rental equivalence to measure OOH. Rental equivalence uses the rent paid for an equivalent house as a proxy for the costs faced by an owner occupier. In other words this answers the question “how much would I have to pay in rent to live in a home like mine?” for an owner occupier. OOH does not seek to capture increases in house prices. Although, this may be inconsistent with some users’ expectations of measures of OOH, the inclusion of an asset price and therefore capital gains makes the measure less suitable for a measure of consumption. OOH currently accounts for just over 12% of the expenditure weight of CPIH. This has increased gradually from a weight of 10% in 2005.

Currently, the method of calculation, the population coverage and the basket of goods and services are the same as the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), with the exception of OOH. The method of deriving the weights for CPIH and the data used for these are also the same as for CPI, with the exception of OOH. This can result in some differences from the CPI. ONS currently classifies CPIH as an experimental statistic. For further information see the article Introducing the new CPIH measure of Consumer Price Inflation, 2005 to 2012.  

  • The all items CPIH is 124.7, up from 124.3 in August.

  • The all items CPIH annual rate is 2.5%, unchanged from last month.

  • The annual rate for CPIH excluding indirect taxes, CPIHY, is 2.6%, unchanged from last month.

  • The OOH component of CPIH is 107.7, up from  107.6  last month.

  • The OOH component annual rate is 1.0%, unchanged from last month.

  • The CPIH all goods index is 121.6, up from 120.6 in August.

  • The CPIH all goods index annual rate is 2.1%, down from 2.4% last month.

  • The CPIH all services index is 127.6, down from 127.8 in August.

  • The CPIH all services index annual rate is 2.8%, up from 2.5% last month.

Retail Prices Index (RPI) and RPIJ

In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, the Retail Prices Index and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. The full assessment report can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website.

The RPI is a long-standing measure of UK inflation that has historically been used for a wide range of purposes such as the indexation of pensions and rents and index-linked gilts. For further information on current and historic uses of the RPI please see the article 'Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics'.

RPIJ is an improved variant of the Retail Prices Index which is calculated using formulae that meet international standards. The rationale for creating RPIJ was to give users a better alternative to the RPI if their needs were for a measure of inflation based on the same population, classifications, weights etc as the RPI. Currently, RPIJ also acts as an analytical series, in that it allows users to see the impact of using the Jevons (which meets international standards) in place of the Carli formula (which does not meet international standards) in the RPI. The use of the different formulae at the elementary aggregate level is currently the only difference between the two indices. ONS does not produce detailed goods and services indices for RPIJ. ONS currently classifies RPIJ as an experimental statistic. For further information on RPIJ please see the article Introducing the new RPIJ measure of Consumer Price Inflation, 1997 to 2012.

  • The all items RPI is 251.9, up from 251.0 in August.

  • The all items RPI annual rate is 3.2%, down from 3.3% last month.

  • The all items RPIJ is 235.0, up from 234.2 in August.

  • The all items RPIJ annual rate is 2.5%, down from 2.6% last month.

  • The annual rate for RPIX, the all items RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (MIPs) index is 3.2%, down from 3.3% last month.   

  • The all goods RPI is 198.8, up from 197.2 in August. 

  • The all goods RPI annual rate is 2.9%, down from 3.4% last month.

  • The all services RPI is 335.5, down from 336.0 in August.

  • The all services RPI annual rate is 3.7%, up from 3.5% last month.

  • The annual rate for RPIY, the all items RPI excluding MIPs and indirect taxes index is 3.4%, down from 3.5% last month.

  • The Seasonally Adjusted RPIY (SARPIY) annual rate is 3.4%, down from 3.5% last month.

  • The Tax and Price Index (TPI) for September is 222.0, up from 221.1 in August.

  • The TPI annual rate is 2.2%, down from 2.3% in August. 

CPI summary

Contributions to change in the CPI annual rate

CPI COICOP DIVISIONS     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01: Food and non-alcoholic beverages 112 106 - 0.1 0.01
02: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 42 44 1.1 0.5 -0.03
03: Clothing and footwear 65 68 4.7 4.2 -0.01
04: Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 144 137 0.1 0.1 -
05: Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 61 59 0.5 0.2 -0.02
06: Health 24 25 0.2 0.2 -
07: Transport 162 148 -1.3 -1.4 -
08: Communication 27 31 - 0.1 -
09: Recreation and culture 134 141 0.6 0.6 -
10: Education 19 21 0.5 1.9 0.03
11: Restaurants and hotels 114 117 0.3 0.5 0.02
12: Miscellaneous goods and services 96 103 0.7 0.3 -0.03

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Largest upward effect came from:

  • Air fares, where prices, overall, fell between August and September 2013 as they always do between these two months. The fall this year (18.7%) was smaller than the fall a year ago (25.2%) resulting in an upward contribution to the change in the CPI from air fares. In 2012 prices, overall, fell between August and September for long-haul, European and domestic flights. This year the fall in prices for long-haul and European flights was smaller than a year ago and there was a rise in the price of domestic flights. Looking back over the previous 10 years (2003 to 2012), the average fall in air fares between August and September was 22.6%.

Largest downward effect came from:

  • Motor fuels, prices, overall, fell by 0.2% between August and September 2013 compared with a rise of 2.7% between the same two months in 2012. Petrol prices fell by 0.5 pence per litre between August and September this year, to stand at £1.37, compared with a rise of 3.9 pence per litre between the same two months a year ago, to stand at £1.39. Diesel prices rose by 0.1 pence per litre this year between August and September this year, to stand at £1.42, compared with a larger rise of 3.5 pence between the same to months a year ago to stand at £1.44.

CPI notable movements

CPI notable movements

All items CPI Annual rate +2.7%, unchanged from last month
Also +2.7% in May 2013
Last higher in July 2013 (+2.8%)
Last lower in April 2013 (+2.4%)
All items CPI exc energy, food, Annual rate +2.2%, up from +2.0% last month
alcohol and tobacco Highest since June 2013 (+2.3%)
Education Annual rate +21.4%, up from +19.7% last month
Never higher since official series began in January 1997
Miscellaneous goods and services Annual rate +0.9%, down from +1.2% last month
Lowest since August 2000 (+0.8%)
All goods Annual rate +2.1%, down from +2.4% last month
Lowest since May 2013 (+2.0%)
All services Annual rate +3.4%, up from +3.0% last month
Also +3.4% in June 2013
Last higher in May 2013 (+3.6%)

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CPI detailed briefing

  • Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the CPI.

01 Food & non-alcoholic beverages

      Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01 Food & non-alcoholic beverages 112 106 - 0.1 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to non-alcoholic beverages.

01.1 Food

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01.1 Food 98 93 0.1 0.2 -
01.1.1 Bread and cereals 17 16 0.1 -0.2 -0.01
01.1.2 Meat 22 21 0.4 0.7 0.01
01.1.3 Fish 4 4 -0.7 -2.0 -0.01
01.1.4 Milk, cheese and eggs 14 13 0.1 -0.1 -
01.1.5 Oils and fats 2 2 -0.1 -4.4 -0.01
01.1.6 Fruit 9 9 -0.8 1.8 0.02
01.1.7 Vegetables including potatoes 15 14 0.6 1.5 0.01
01.1.8 Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery 12 11 -0.1 -0.9 -0.01
01.1.9 Food products not elsewhere covered 3 3 0.4 -0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There were small upward contributions from fruit; meat; and vegetables including potatoes.

  • Offset by bread and cereals; fish; oils and fats; and sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery.

Bread and cereals

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for packs of individual cakes.

Meat

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from home killed beef steak.

  • Partially offset by bacon, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Fish

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago.

Oils and fats 

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for margarine/low fat spread.

Fruit

  • Small upward effect.

  • Due to plums and organic desert apples.

Organic desert apples                                  Small upward effect.  
                                                                       Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.
Plums                                                            Small upward effect.  
                                                                       Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

Vegetables including potatoes

  • Small upward effect.

  • Due to cauliflowers, onions and premium potato crisps.

  • Partially offset by old white potatoes.

Cauliflowers                                                 Small upward effect.  
                                                                      Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.  
Onions                                                          Small upward effect.  
                                                                      Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago. 
Premium potato crisps                                Small upward effect. 
                                                                      Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago. 
Old white potatoes                                       Small downward effect.  
                                                                      Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from chocolate bars, boxes of chocolates and ice cream.

  • Partially offset by small upward contributions from bags of sweets and chocolate covered ice cream bars. 

01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages 14 13 -0.8 -0.3 0.01
01.2.1 Coffee, tea and cocoa 4 3 -1.6 0.2 0.01
01.2.2 Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices 10 10 -0.5 -0.4 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to coffee, tea and cocoa; where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago. 

02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 42 44 1.1 0.5 -0.03

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to alcoholic beverages; and tobacco.

02.1 Alcoholic beverages

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02.1 Alcoholic beverages 18 20 0.8 -0.2 -0.02
02.1.1 Spirits 5 6 1.5 -0.8 -0.01
02.1.2 Wine 9 9 0.9 0.1 -0.01
02.1.3 Beer 4 5 -0.1 - -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.   

  • Due to spirits and wine.

Spirits

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for vodka.

Wine

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for New World white wine.

  • Partially offset by a small upward contribution from New World red wine, where prices rose this year but fell a year ago.

02.2 Tobacco

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02.2 Tobacco 24 24 1.2 1.0 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for certain brands of cigarettes.   

03 Clothing and footwear

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03 Clothing and footwear 65 68 4.7 4.2 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to clothing.

03.1 Clothing

  Weight 2012   Weight 2013   1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03.1 Clothing 56 59 5.1 4.5 -0.01
03.1.2 Garments 52 54 5.3 4.7 -0.01
03.1.3 Other clothing and clothing accessories 3 4 2.8 2.5 -
03.1.4 Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing 1 1 0.1 0.3 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

  • Due to garments, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from women’s coats, cardigans, dresses and casual skirts; and also men’s branded T-shirts. Partially offset by upward contributions from men’s ready made suits and women’s formal jackets and trousers, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago. 

03.2 Footwear including repairs

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03.2 Footwear including repairs 9 9 2.0 2.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 144 137 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

04.1 Actual rentals for housing

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.1 Actual rentals for housing 64 62 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling 14 16 0.5 0.5 -
04.3.1 Materials for maintenance and repair 8 9 0.9 0.8 -
04.3.2 Services for maintenance and repair 6 7 - 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.   

04.4 Other services related to the dwelling

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.4 Other services related to the dwelling 10 11 - - -
04.4.1 Water supply 5 6 - - -
04.4.3 Sewerage collection 5 5 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels 56 48 0.2 0.1 -0.01
04.5.1 Electricity 20 19 - - -
04.5.2 Gas 32 26 - - -
04.5.3 Liquid fuels 3 2 2.8 2.4 -
04.5.4 Solid fuels 1 1 0.4 0.5 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.    

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 61 59 0.5 0.2 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to furniture, furnishings and carpets.

05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets 20 20 1.7 0.4 -0.03
05.1.1 Furniture and furnishings 16 16 2.0 -0.4 -0.04
05.1.2 Carpets and other floor coverings 4 4 0.5 3.5 0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to furniture and furnishings.

  • Partially offset by carpets and other floor coverings.

Furniture and furnishings

  • Large downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for double beds, non-leather suites and leather settees.

Carpets and other floor coverings

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from tufted carpet.

05.2 Household textiles

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.2 Household textiles 7 8 0.2 0.4 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs 9 9 -0.3 -0.5 -
05.3.1/2 Major appliances and small electric goods 8 8 -0.3 -0.5 -
05.3.3 Repair of household appliances 1 1 0.1 - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils 5 5 -1.5 -2.0 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden 5 4 -1.0 -0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance 15 13 0.6 1.0 -
05.6.1 Non-durable household goods 6 5 1.4 2.4 -
05.6.2 Domestic services and household services 9 8 0.2 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 

06 Health

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06 Health 24 25 0.2 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment 10 10 0.3 0.3 -
06.1.1 Pharmaceutical products 6 6 0.5 0.2 -
06.1.2/3 Other medical and therapeutic equipment 4 4 - 0.4 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

06.2 Out-patient services

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.2 Out-patient services 5 6 0.1 0.1 -
06.2.1/3 Medical and paramedical services 3 3 - 0.1 -
06.2.2 Dental services 2 3 0.1 - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

06.3 Hospital services

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.3 Hospital Services 9 9 - 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

07 Transport

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07 Transport 162 148 -1.3 -1.4 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a large downward contribution coming from operation of personal transport equipment and a small downward contribution coming from purchase of vehicles.   

  • Offset by a large upward contribution from transport services.

07.1 Purchase of vehicles

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.1 Purchase of vehicles 43 38 0.2 - -0.01
07.1.1A New cars 24 21 - 0.1 -
07.1.1B Second-hand cars 16 14 0.3 0.1 -
07.1.2/3 Motorcycles and bicycles 3 3 0.6 -0.7 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago.

07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment 89 81 1.5 0.1 -0.12
07.2.1 Spare parts and accessories 5 5 0.1 1.9 0.01
07.2.2 Fuels and lubricants 46 40 2.7 -0.2 -0.13
07.2.3 Maintenance and repairs 22 22 0.2 0.2 -
07.2.4 Other services 16 14 0.2 0.5 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to fuels and lubricants.

  • Partially offset by spare parts and accessories.

Spare parts and accessories

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago.

Fuels and lubricants

  • Large downward effect.

  • The average price of petrol across the month, as recorded for the CPI, fell by 0.5 pence per litre between August and September 2013 to stand at 136.5 pence per litre.

  • Last year, the average price of petrol rose by 3.9 pence per litre between August and September 2012 to stand at 139.0 pence per litre.

  • The average price of diesel rose by 0.1 pence per litre between August and September 2013 to stand at 141.9 pence per litre, compared with a rise of 3.5 pence last year to stand at 143.8 pence per litre.

07.3 Transport services

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.3 Transport services 30 29 -10.1 -6.5 0.13
07.3.1 Passenger transport by railway 9 9 -0.4 0.3 0.01
07.3.2 Passenger transport by road 12 13 -0.2 -1.3 -0.02
07.3.3 Passenger transport by air 8 6 -25.2 -18.8 0.14
07.3.4 Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway 1 1 -20.4 -18.8 -

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to passenger transport by air and, to a lesser extent, passenger transport by railway.

  • Partially offset by passenger transport by road.

Passenger transport by railway

  • Small upward effect.

  • Average fares rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from international rail fares. 

Passenger transport by road 

  • Small downward effect.

  • Average fares fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for coach fares.

Passenger transport by air

  • Large upward effect.

  • Average air fares for long haul and European flights fell this year by less than a year ago.  Domestic routes rose this year but fell a year ago.

08 Communication

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08 Communication 27 31 - 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 

08.1 Postal services

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08.1 Postal services 1 2 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 

08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services 26 29 - 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

09 Recreation and culture

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09 Recreation and culture 134 141 0.6 0.6 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a large upward contribution from other recreational items, gardens and pets; and a small upward contribution from audio-visual equipment and related products.

  • Offset by small downward contributions from recreational and cultural services; and package holidays.

09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products 23 23 1.6 1.7 0.01
09.1.1 Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures 6 6 1.2 -0.1 -0.01
09.1.2 Photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment 4 3 -0.2 - -
09.1.3 Data processing equipment 6 7 2.1 3.6 0.01
09.1.4 Recording media 6 6 2.8 2.6 -
09.1.5 Repair of audio-visual equipment and related products 1 1 - - -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to data processing equipment.

  • Partially offset by equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures.

Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures

  • Small downward effect.  

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Data processing equipment

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from tablet computers.

09.2 Other major durables for recreation and culture

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.2.1/2 Major durables for in/outdoor recreation 10 9 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets 35 32 - 1.1 0.04
09.3.1 Games, toys and hobbies 20 19 -0.3 1.6 0.04
09.3.2 Equipment for sport and open-air recreation 3 3 2.1 1.5 -
09.3.3 Gardens, plants and flowers 4 4 -0.6 0.1 -
09.3.4/5 Pets, related products and services 8 6 0.1 - -

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

  • Due to games, toys and hobbies; where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with upward contributions coming from computer games, computer games consoles, child’s trikes and soft toys.

  • Partially offset by a small downward contribution from pre-school activity toys, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago.

09.4 Recreational and cultural services

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.4 Recreational and cultural services 29 29 0.9 0.1 -0.02
09.4.1 Recreational and sporting services 8 9 2.4 1.3 -0.01
09.4.2 Cultural services 21 20 0.3 -0.5 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to cultural services; and recreational and sporting services.

Recreational and sporting services

  • Small downward effect.

  • Charges overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for part-time leisure classes.

Cultural services

  • Small downward effect.

  • Charges overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for theatre admission.

09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery 13 14 0.5 0.4 -
09.5.1 Books 3 4 2.5 2.5 -
09.5.2 Newspapers and periodicals 5 5 -0.7 0.1 -
09.5.3/4 Misc. printed matter, stationery, drawing materials 5 5 0.4 -0.8 -0.01

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small downward contribution from miscellaneous printed matter, stationery and drawing materials; where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

09.6 Package holidays

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.6 Package holidays 24 34 0.8 - -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Average charges for package holidays were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from foreign holidays.

10 Education

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
10 Education 19 21 0.5 1.9 0.03

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  • Largest upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Charges overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from part-time education classes and private school fees. 

11 Restaurants and hotels

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11 Restaurants and hotels 114 117 0.3 0.5 0.02

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.   

  • Due to catering services.

11.1 Catering services

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11.1 Catering services 97 98 0.1 0.4 0.02
11.1.1 Restaurants and cafes 86 88 0.1 0.3 0.02
11.1.2 Canteens 11 10 0.4 1.1 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to restaurants and cafes; and canteens.

Restaurants and cafes

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from both glasses and bottles of wine for consumption on premises.

Canteens

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago.

11.2 Accommodation services

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11.2 Accommodation services 17 19 1.1 1.0 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

12 Miscellaneous goods and services

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12 Misc. goods and services 96 103 0.7 0.3 -0.03

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  • Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to personal care; and financial services not elsewhere covered.

12.1 Personal care

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.1 Personal care 28 28 1.7 0.9 -0.02
12.1.1 Hairdressing and personal grooming establishments 8 7 0.1 0.1 -
12.1.2/3 Appliances and products for personal care 20 21 2.3 1.1 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to appliances and products for personal care; where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from deodorant, toilet rolls and mascara. Partially offset by a small upward contribution from tissues, where prices rose this year but fell a year ago.

12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered 13 13 0.5 0.3 -
12.3.1 Jewellery, clocks and watches 8 8 0.5 -0.3 -0.01
12.3.2 Other personal effects 5 5 0.4 1.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small downward contribution from jewellery, clocks and watches; where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from gold chains.

12.4 Social protection

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.4 Social protection 13 14 0.4 0.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.     

12.5 Insurance

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.5 Insurance 8 8 -0.3 -0.4 -
12.5.2 House contents insurance 3 2 0.4 -1.3 -
12.5.3 Health insurance 2 2 - - -
12.5.4 Transport insurance 3 4 -1.2 -0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered 23 30 0.5 0.1 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Charges overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from mortgage arrangement fees. 

12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered 11 10 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

RPI summary

Contributions to the change in the RPI annual rate

GROUPS      Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FOOD 114 116 0.1 - -0.02
CATERING 47 47 0.2 0.3 -
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 56 61 0.3 0.1 -0.01
TOBACCO 29 30 1.2 1.0 -0.01
HOUSING 237 254 0.2 0.2 -
FUEL AND LIGHT 46 43 0.2 0.2 -
HOUSEHOLD GOODS 62 60 1.1 0.4 -0.04
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES 67 62 0.1 0.4 0.01
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 45 43 4.5 4.6 -
PERSONAL GOODS AND SERVICES 39 40 0.8 0.5 -0.01
MOTORING EXPENDITURE 131 122 1.1 0.2 -0.12
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS 23 18 -8.1 -5.0 0.11
LEISURE GOODS 33 30 0.8 1.3 0.01
LEISURE SERVICES 71 74 1.0 0.1 -0.06

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RPI notable movements

RPI notable movements

All items RPI Annual rate +3.2%, down from +3.3% last month
  Lowest since July 2013 (+3.1%)
All items RPI exc MIPS (RPIX) Annual rate +3.2%, down from +3.3% last month
  Also +3.2% in July 2013
  Last lower in May 2013 (+3.1%)
All items RPI exc MIPS and indirect Annual rate +3.4%, down from +3.5% last month
taxes (RPIY) Also +3.4% in July 2013 and June 2013
  Last lower in May 2013 (+3.3%)
Tobacco Annual rate +6.6%, down from +6.9% last month
  Lowest since March 2010 (+6.5%)
Personal goods and services Annual rate +2.3%, down from +2.7% last month
  Also +2.3% in February 2013
  Last lower in December 2008 (+2.2%)
Leisure services Annual rate +2.2%, down from +3.1% last month
  Lowest since July 2006 (+2.1%)
All goods Annual rate +2.9%, down from +3.4% last month
  Lowest since May 2013 (+2.5%)
All services Annual rate +3.7%, up from +3.5% last month
  Highest since June 2013 (+3.8%)

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RPI detailed briefing

In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, the Retail Prices Index and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. ONS consulted in March 2013 on whether to maintain this detailed RPI briefing and, based on views received, decided to continue with its publication.

  • Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the RPI.

Food

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FOOD 114 116 0.1 - -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to non-seasonal food.

  • Partially offset by seasonal food.

Seasonal food

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
SEASONAL FOOD 19 20 -0.5 0.6 0.02
Home killed lamb 1 1 -3.9 0.9 -
Fresh fish 2 2 -1.3 -4.0 -0.01
Eggs 1 1 1.6 0.4 -
Unprocessed potatoes 2 2 2.6 -3.4 -0.01
Other fresh vegetables 7 7 -0.7 2.1 0.02
Fresh fruit 6 7 -0.8 1.7 0.02

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

  • Due to other fresh vegetables and fresh fruit, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from cauliflowers and onions.

  • Partially offset by small downward contributions from:

  • Fresh fish, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for frozen prawns; and

  • Unprocessed potatoes, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for old white potatoes.

Non-seasonal food

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
NON-SEASONAL FOOD 95 96 0.2 -0.1 -0.04
Bread 4 5 1.1 -0.1 -
Cereals 4 4 0.5 0.4 -
Biscuits and cakes 7 7 0.5 -1.6 -0.01
Beef 4 4 0.3 2.7 0.01
Imported lamb 1 1 0.2 0.7 -
Pork 1 1 0.6 -1.7 -
Bacon 2 2 1.5 -0.4 -
Poultry 4 4 1.2 0.5 -
Other meat 7 7 -0.1 0.7 -
Processed fish 2 2 -0.1 -1.4 -
Butter 1 1 4.4 0.2 -
Oils and fats 2 2 -1.9 -5.5 -0.01
Cheese 4 3 1.2 -2.1 -0.01
Milk, fresh 4 4 -0.1 -0.4 -
Milk products 4 4 -1.0 1.8 0.01
Tea 1 1 -2.4 -0.1 -
Soft drinks 11 12 -0.6 -0.5 -
Sugar and preserves 1 1 -0.3 -0.3 -
Sweets and chocolates 11 13 0.4 -0.9 -0.02
Potato products 3 3 -0.7 1.6 0.01
Processed vegetables 2 2 3.6 - -0.01
Processed fruit 2 1 -0.3 1.3 -
Other foods 11 11 0.2 0.3 -
Coffee and other hot drinks 2 1 -0.5 0.2 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Sweets and chocolates, biscuits and cakes and cheese, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from chocolate bars, boxes of chocolates, packs of individual cakes and cheese spread. Partially offset by a small upward contribution from bags of sweets; 

  • Oils and fats, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for margarine/low fat spread; and

  • Processed vegetables, where prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago.

  • Partially offset by:  

  • Beef, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from for beef steaks; and

  • Milk products and potato products, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from yoghurt/fromage frais and premium potato crisps.

Catering

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
CATERING 47 47 0.2 0.3 -
Restaurant meals 27 27 0.2 0.3 -
Canteen meals 3 4 0.8 0.8 -
Take-away meals and snacks 17 16 0.3 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.      

Alcoholic drinks

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 56 61 0.3 0.1 -0.01
Beer on sales 21 21 - 0.1 -
Beer off sales 5 5 -0.3 -0.3 -
Wines and spirits on sales 16 20 -0.2 0.5 0.01
Wines and spirits off sales 14 15 1.4 - -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to wines and spirits off sales, where prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from vodka, European white wine and New World white wine. Partially offset by a small upward contribution from New World red wine, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

  • Partially offset by wines and spirits on sales, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for bottles of wine for consumption on premises.

Tobacco

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
TOBACCO 29 30 1.2 1.0 -0.01
Cigarettes 25 26 1.3 1.0 -0.01
Other tobacco products 4 4 1.0 0.6 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

  • Due to cigarettes, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.  

Housing

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSING 237 254 0.2 0.2 -
Rent 75 86 - - -
Mortgage interest payments 29 29 0.3 0.2 -
Council tax and rates 41 43 - - -
Water and other charges 13 14 - - -
Repairs and maintenance charges 9 10 - 0.1 -
DIY materials 8 7 0.4 0.7 -
Dwelling insurance and ground rent 6 7 0.3 -1.0 -0.01
House depreciation 56 58 0.6 0.9 0.02

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small upward contribution from house depreciation, with the smoothed house price index used to calculate this component rising this year by more than a year ago.

  • Offset by dwelling insurance and ground rent, where average insurance premiums fell this year but rose a year ago.

Fuel and light

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FUEL AND LIGHT 46 43 0.2 0.2 -
Coal and solid fuels 1 1 0.3 0.5 -
Electricity 21 20 - - -
Gas 21 19 - - -
Oil and other fuels 3 3 2.4 2.0 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 

Household goods

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSEHOLD GOODS 62 60 1.1 0.4 -0.04
Furniture 22 21 2.5 -0.9 -0.08
Furnishings 9 9 0.6 4.0 0.03
Electrical appliances 6 6 -0.3 0.9 0.01
Other household equipment 4 4 -0.9 -1.8 -
Household consumables 13 12 1.0 0.9 -
Pet care 8 8 - 0.1 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to furniture, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from lounge furniture, beds and home office desks.

  • Partially offset by:

  • Furnishings, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from tufted carpet; and  

  • Electrical appliances, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

Household services

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES 67 62 0.1 0.4 0.01
Domestic services 13 13 0.3 0.2 -
Fees and subscriptions 29 24 0.1 0.6 0.01
Postage 1 1 - - -
Telephone charges 24 24 - 0.2 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Fees and subscriptions, where average charges rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from part-time education classes.  Partially offset by a small downward contribution from house contents insurance, where average premiums fell this year but rose a year ago; and

  • Telephone charges, where prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago.

Clothing and footwear

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 45 43 4.5 4.6 -
Men’s outerwear 9 9 2.8 3.2 0.01
Women’s outerwear 16 16 9.0 8.5 -
Children’s outerwear 5 5 0.8 0.9 -
Other clothing 6 5 1.7 1.9 -
Footwear 9 8 2.2 2.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small upward contribution coming from men’s outerwear, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

Personal goods & services

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
PERSONAL GOODS & SERVICES 39 40 0.8 0.5 -0.01
Personal articles 10 10 0.3 0.5 -
Chemists' goods 15 15 1.9 0.9 -0.02
Personal services 14 15 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to chemists’ goods, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for deodorant and mascara.

Motoring expenditure

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
MOTORING EXPENDITURE 131 122 1.1 0.2 -0.12
Purchase of motor vehicles 39 34 0.2 0.1 -
Maintenance of motor vehicles 20 19 0.3 0.5 -
Petrol and oil 47 45 3.3 0.4 -0.13
Vehicle tax and insurance 25 24 -0.7 -0.1 0.01

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  • Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to petrol and oil, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago. The price of petrol, as recorded for the RPI, rose by 0.5 pence per litre between August and September 2013, to stand at 137.6 pence per litre, compared with a rise of 4.6 pence per litre last year to stand at 138.9 pence per litre. Diesel prices rose by 0.9 pence per litre, to stand at 142.7 pence per litre in September 2013, compared with a rise of 4.2 pence per litre last year to stand at 143.7 pence per litre.

  • Partially offset by vehicle tax and insurance, where average premiums for car insurance fell this year by less than a year ago.

Fares and other travel costs

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS 23 18 -8.1 -5.0 0.11
Rail fares 6 6 -0.3 0.3 -
Bus and coach fares 4 4 -0.5 -2.1 -0.01
Other travel costs 13 8 -13.0 -9.4 0.11

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  • Largest upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to other travel costs, where average charges for long haul and European flights fell this year by less than a year ago.  Domestic flights rose this year but fell a year ago.  There was also a small upward contribution from sea fares, where average charges fell this year by less than a year ago.

  • Partially offset by a small downward contribution from bus and coach fares, where average charges for coach journeys fell this year by more than a year ago.

Leisure goods

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
LEISURE GOODS 33 30 0.8 1.3 0.01
Audio-visual equipment 7 6 2.3 2.5 -
CDs and tapes 3 3 3.4 2.2 -
Toys, photographic and sports goods 10 9 0.5 1.6 0.01
Books and newspapers 8 7 0.5 0.8 -
Gardening products 5 5 -0.5 0.1 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to toys, photographic and sports goods, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from computer games.

Leisure services

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Sep-12 1 month % change Sep-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
LEISURE SERVICES 71 74 1.0 0.1 -0.06
TV licence and rentals 12 13 - - -
Entertainment and other recreation 17 15 2.2 0.2 -0.04
Foreign holidays 33 35 0.8 0.1 -0.03
UK holidays 9 11 0.5 0.2 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to entertainment and other recreation and, to a lesser extent, foreign holidays, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from theatre admissions, part-time leisure classes and both self catering and hotel foreign holidays.

Reconciliation of CPI and RPI

(Table 5 of the Consumer Price Inflation Reference Tables) (1.23 Mb Excel sheet)

This table identifies the main factors contributing to the differences between the unrounded inflation rates for the CPI and the RPI. These differences are broken down into: mortgage interest payments, other housing components excluded from the CPI, other differences in the coverage of goods and services, and the formula effect. The final column titled ‘other differences including weights’ is derived as a residual.

The difference between the CPI and RPI unrounded annual rates in September 2013 was -0.47 percentage points, narrowing from -0.59 percentage points in August 2013.

The main factor contributing to the narrowing was:

  • Other differences including weights, which decreased the RPI 12-month rate relative to the CPI 12 month rate by 0.10 percentage points between August and September 2013. The effect came mainly from air fares, food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear and games toys and hobbies. Within this section there were no significant offsetting factors.

Overall there were no significant factors offsetting the narrowing effect.

RPI miscellaneous data

Selected average prices

Description                                July 2013 August 2013 September 2013
Petrol per litre Diesel £1.39 £1.42 £1.43
Petrol £1.34 £1.37 £1.38
Alcohol pub prices Draught bitter (pint) £2.87 £2.87 £2.88
Draught lager (pint) £3.30 £3.30 £3.31
Whisky (per nip) £2.46 £2.46 £2.47
Cigarettes Per 20 king size £7.77 £7.79 £7.87

Table notes:

  1. Average prices are as recorded for the RPI.

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Changes in Mortgage Interest Rates

This table gives an estimate of the contribution that changes in the average mortgage interest rate (MI) make to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

Changes in mortgage interest rates

       
Month     1-month % change in the RPI Approx. change in average MI rate Approx. contribution to the 1-month % change  in the RPI
September 2012 +0.5 Negligible -
October 2012 +0.6 Up +0.07% points +0.06% points
November 2012 +0.0 Down -0.08% points -0.07% points
December 2012 +0.5 Up +0.01% points +0.01% points
January 2013 -0.4 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
February 2013 +0.7 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
March 2013 +0.4 Negligible -
April 2013 +0.3 Negligible -
May 2013 +0.2 Negligible -
June 2013 -0.1 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
July 2013 +0.0 Negligible -
August 2013 +0.5 Negligible -
September 2013 +0.4 Negligible -
                                                                                                                                             

Table notes:

  1. A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approx 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

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Outlook

The outlook is a summary of seasonal trends, selected news cuttings and other sources of information. It gives some indication of expected changes to the annual rate of the CPI and RPI in the next few months.

FOOD

Seasonal food
  • With the exception of 2011, seasonal food prices in the CPI have tended to rise in October in recent years.

Food

Seasonal food

Monthly % change for CPI seasonal food index  
Year August September October
2007 1.4 0.9 2.6
2008 1.9 -0.8 1.6
2009 -1.5 -2.2 2.1
2010 -0.5 -0.7 0.4
2011 -1.0 0.8 -1.6
2012 0.2 -0.1 0.9
2013 0.2 1.1  

Table notes:

  1. Seasonal food prices in the RPI tend to show a similar movement.

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CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR

  • Clothing and footwear prices in the CPI have shown a mixed pattern of rises and falls in the October of recent years.

Clothing and footwear

Monthly % change for CPI clothing and footwear index
Year August September October
2007 1.4 1.6 -
2008 1.4 2.2 -0.6
2009 1.3 3.6 -0.4
2010 2.8 6.4 -0.7
2011 3.7 4.4 0.8
2012 2.8 4.7 1.2
2013 2.0 4.2

Table notes:

  1. The clothing and footwear group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

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ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS

  • SSE (Scottish and Southern Energy plc) has announced it will increase average prices for both household electricity and household gas by 8.2% on 15 November 2013. (bbc.co.uk 10 October 2013)

  • Consumer groups are warning that the UK’s other energy suppliers are likely to raise their prices following the announcement by SSE of an 8.2% increase in bills. (bbc.co.uk 11 October 2013)

FURNITURE, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND MAINTENANCE

  • Prices tend to fall in October as a result of mid-season sales.

Furniture, household equipment and maintenance

Monthly % change for CPI furniture, household equipment and maintenance index
Year August September October
2007 0.5 1.8 -1.2
2008 0.8 1.6 -1.0
2009 1.5 1.6 -0.8
2010 1.0 1.7 -1.0
2011 2.0 1.2 -0.6
2012 0.8 0.5 -0.6
2013 1.8 0.2

Table notes:

  1. The household goods group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

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TRANSPORT

Fuels and Lubricants

  • Brent oil slipped towards $111 per barrel on Friday but was still on track to end the week higher after an overnight jump in prices due to concern over supply risks in the Middle East and hopes of a deal to end the US budget crisis. (uk.reuters.com 11 October 2013)

  • When considering the price of petrol between September and October 2013, it may be useful to note that the average price of petrol fell by 0.9 pence per litre between September and October 2012, to stand at 138.1 pence per litre as measured in the CPI.

  • A 1 pence change on average in the cost of a litre of road fuel contributes approximately 0.03 percentage points to the 1-month change in the CPI.

Passenger transport by air

  • Airfares have shown a mixed pattern of rises and falls in October of previous years.

Passenger transport by air

Monthly % change for CPI air fares index
Year August September October
2007 7.4 -28.1 4.3
2008 11.1 -19.3 -6.2
2009 8.3 -23.8 1.5
2010 16.1 -27.8 2.7
2011 11.2 -21.2 -6.0
2012 10.2 -25.2 -3.5
2013 9.4 -18.8

Table notes:

  1. The air fares index used in the RPI is the same as that used in the CPI, and is included in the other travel costs section.

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HOUSING (RPI)

Mortgage interest payments (MIPs)

  • The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% on Thursday 10 October 2013.

  • The change in average mortgage interest rates recorded in the RPI was +0.07% between September and October 2012. The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% in September 2012.

  • A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approximately 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

Contacts

Media contact:

Tel: Luke Croydon  +44 (0) 845 6041858

Out of hours media line +44 (0) 7867 906553

Email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Statistical contact:

Tel: Richard Campbell +44 (0) 1633 651536

Email: richard.campbell@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Website: www.ons.gov.uk

Email: cpi@ons.gsi.gov.uk

CPI/RPI recorded message (available after 9.45 am on release day):

Tel: +44 (0) 1633 456961

CPI/RPI Enquiries:

Tel: +44 (0) 1633 456900

Background notes

  1. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

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