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Consumer Price Inflation Detailed Briefing Note, October 2013 (HTML Version) This product is designated as National Statistics

Released: 18 November 2013 Download PDF

Summary

Consumer Prices Index (CPI)

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and in line with European regulations. First published in 1997 as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the CPI is the inflation measure used in the Government’s target for inflation.

The CPI is also used for purposes such as uprating pensions, wages and benefits and can aid in the understanding of inflation on family budgets. For more information on the uses of the CPI see the article 'Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics'.

  • The all items CPI is 126.9, up from 126.8 in September.

  • The all items CPI annual rate is 2.2%, down from 2.7% last month.

  • The annual rate for CPI excluding indirect taxes, CPIY, is 2.3%, down from 2.8% last month.

  • The annual rate for CPI at constant tax rates, CPI-CT, is 2.1%, down from 2.5% last month.

  • The CPI all goods index is 121.4, down from 121.5 in September.

  • The CPI all goods index annual rate is 1.7%, down from 2.1% last month.

  • The CPI all services index is 133.8, up from 133.5 in September.

  • The CPI all services index annual rate is 2.7%, down from 3.4% last month.

CPIH

CPIH is a new measure of UK consumer price inflation that includes owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH). These are the costs of housing services associated with owning, maintaining and living in one’s own home. OOH does not include costs such as utility bills and minor repairs and maintenance which are already included in the index. CPIH uses an approach called rental equivalence to measure OOH. Rental equivalence uses the rent paid for an equivalent house as a proxy for the costs faced by an owner occupier. In other words this answers the question “how much would I have to pay in rent to live in a home like mine?” for an owner occupier. OOH does not seek to capture increases in house prices. Although, this may be inconsistent with some users’ expectations of measures of OOH, the inclusion of an asset price and therefore capital gains makes the measure less suitable for a measure of consumption. OOH currently accounts for just over 12% of the expenditure weight of CPIH. This has increased gradually from a weight of 10% in 2005.

Currently, the method of calculation, the population coverage and the basket of goods and services are the same as the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), with the exception of OOH. The method of deriving the weights for CPIH and the data used for these are also the same as for CPI, with the exception of OOH. This can result in some differences from the CPI. ONS currently classifies CPIH as an experimental statistic. For further information see the article Introducing the new CPIH measure of Consumer Price Inflation, 2005 to 2012.  

  • The all items CPIH is 124.8, up from 124.7 in September.

  • The all items CPIH annual rate is 2.0%, down from 2.5% last month.

  • The annual rate for CPIH excluding indirect taxes, CPIHY, is 2.1%, down from 2.6% last month.

  • The OOH component of CPIH is 107.8, up from 107.7 last month.

  • The OOH component annual rate is 1.0%, unchanged from last month.

  • The CPIH all goods index is 121.5, down from 121.6 in September.

  • The CPIH all goods index annual rate is 1.7%, down from 2.1% last month.

  • The CPIH all services index is 127.9, up from 127.6 in September.

  • The CPIH all services index annual rate is 2.3%, down from 2.8% last month.

Retail Prices Index (RPI) and RPIJ

In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, the Retail Prices Index and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. The full assessment report can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website.

The RPI is a long-standing measure of UK inflation that has historically been used for a wide range of purposes such as the indexation of pensions and rents and index-linked gilts. For further information on current and historic uses of the RPI please see the article 'Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics'.

RPIJ is an improved variant of the Retail Prices Index which is calculated using formulae that meet international standards. The rationale for creating RPIJ was to give users a better alternative to the RPI if their needs were for a measure of inflation based on the same population, classifications, weights etc as the RPI. Currently, RPIJ also acts as an analytical series, in that it allows users to see the impact of using the Jevons (which meets international standards) in place of the Carli formula (which does not meet international standards) in the RPI. The use of the different formulae at the elementary aggregate level is currently the only difference between the two indices. ONS does not produce detailed goods and services indices for RPIJ. ONS currently classifies RPIJ as an experimental statistic. For further information on RPIJ please see the article Introducing the new RPIJ measure of Consumer Price Inflation, 1997 to 2012.

  • The all items RPI is 251.9, unchanged from last month.

  • The all items RPI annual rate is 2.6%, down from 3.2% last month.

  • The all items RPIJ is 234.9, down from 235.0 in September.

  • The all items RPIJ annual rate is 1.9%, down from 2.5% last month.

  • The annual rate for RPIX, the all items RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (MIPs) index is 2.7%, down from 3.2% last month.   

  • The all goods RPI is 198.4, down from 198.8 in September. 

  • The all goods RPI annual rate is 2.3%, down from 2.9% last month.

  • The all services RPI is 336.3, up from 335.5 in September.

  • The all services RPI annual rate is 3.1%, down from 3.7% last month.

  • The annual rate for RPIY, the all items RPI excluding MIPs and indirect taxes index is 2.8%, down from 3.4% last month.

  • The Seasonally Adjusted RPIY (SARPIY) annual rate is 2.8%, down from 3.4% last month.

  • The Tax and Price Index (TPI) for October is 222.0, unchanged from last month.

  • The TPI annual rate is 1.6%, down from 2.2% in September. 

CPI summary

Contributions to change in the CPI annual rate

CPI COICOP DIVISIONS     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01: Food and non-alcoholic beverages 112 106 0.5 0.1 -0.04
02: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 42 44 0.4 0.3 -
03: Clothing and footwear 65 68 1.2 1.0 -0.01
04: Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 144 137 0.1 - -0.03
05: Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 61 59 -0.6 -0.4 0.01
06: Health 24 25 0.2 -0.2 -0.01
07: Transport 162 148 -0.1 -1.5 -0.21
08: Communication 27 31 0.2 0.3 -
09: Recreation and culture 134 141 0.4 0.2 -0.02
10: Education 19 21 19.1 8.2 -0.18
11: Restaurants and hotels 114 117 - 0.2 0.03
12: Miscellaneous goods and services 96 103 - -0.2 -0.03

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Largest downward effects came from:

  • Transport, where prices, overall, fell by 1.5% between September and October 2013 compared with a smaller fall of 0.1% between the same two months in 2012. Within the transport sector, the main downward contribution came from prices for motor fuels with reports of price cuts at many of the major supermarket chains on the back of decreases in wholesale prices. Petrol prices fell by 4.9 pence per litre between September and October this year compared with a fall of 0.9 pence per litre between the same two months a year ago, to stand at 131.6 pence. Diesel prices fell by 2.9 pence per litre between September and October this year compared with a fall of 0.6 pence per litre between the same two months a year ago, to stand at 139.0 pence. There were also notable downward contributions from air fares and prices for second hand cars.

  • Education, where prices, overall, rose by 8.2% between September and October 2013, compared with a rise of 19.1% between the same two months in 2012. The downward contribution came principally from UK and EU student tuition fees, where the impact on the CPI of the rise in the cap for tuition fees introduced last year for new UK and EU students in England was smaller this year than in 2012. The smaller impact was due to the fact that many students were already paying the higher rate of fees. In addition there were more modest price increases for part-time and postgraduate fees compared to last year.

There were no notable upward contributions to the change in the CPI 12-month rate between September and October 2013.

CPI notable movements

CPI notable movements

All items CPI Annual rate +2.2%, down from +2.7% last month
  Also +2.2% in September 2012
  Last lower in November 2009 (+1.9%)
All items CPI exc energy, food,  Annual rate +1.7%, down from +2.2% last month
alcohol and tobacco Also +1.7% in September 2009
  Last lower in June 2009 (+1.6%)
Transport Annual rate -0.3%, down from +1.1% last month
  Lowest since July 2009 (-1.4%)
Miscellaneous goods and services Annual rate +0.7%, down from +0.9% last month
  Lowest since July 2000 (+0.5%)
All goods Annual rate +1.7%, down from +2.1% last month
  Also +1.7% in April 2013
  Last lower in November 2012 (+1.5%)
All services Annual rate +2.7%, down from +3.4% last month
  Lowest since December 2009 (+2.6%)
Fuels and lubricants Annual rate -4.2%, down from -1.6% last month
  Lowest since September 2009 (-6.6%)

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CPI detailed briefing

  • Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the CPI.

01 Food & non-alcoholic beverages

      Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01 Food & non-alcoholic beverages 112 106 0.5 0.1 -0.04

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to food.

  • Partially offset by non-alcoholic beverages.

01.1 Food

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01.1 Food 98 93 0.5 0.1 -0.05
01.1.1 Bread and cereals 17 16 -0.2 -0.6 -0.01
01.1.2 Meat 22 21 0.2 0.2 -
01.1.3 Fish 4 4 2.0 4.0 0.01
01.1.4 Milk, cheese and eggs 14 13 -0.3 -0.4 -
01.1.5 Oils and fats 2 2 1.3 3.1 -
01.1.6 Fruit 9 9 1.5 0.5 -0.01
01.1.7 Vegetables including potatoes 15 14 0.2 -1.3 -0.02
01.1.8 Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery 12 11 2.5 0.8 -0.02
01.1.9 Food products not elsewhere covered 3 3 -0.2 - -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to vegetables including potatoes; sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery; bread and cereals; and fruit.

  • Partially offset by fish.

Bread and cereals

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago. There is a small offsetting upward contribution coming from packs of individual cakes.

Fish

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, particularly for salmon fillets.

Fruit

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from pineapples.

Vegetables including potatoes 

  • Small downward effect.

  • Due to old white potatoes and premium potato crisps.

Old white potatoes                                  Small downward effect.   
                                                                     Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Premium potato crisps                          Small downward effect.  
                                                                     Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery

  • Small downward effect.  

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from chocolate bars, bags of sweets and chocolate covered ice cream bars.

  • Partially offset by a small upward contribution from boxes of chocolates. 

01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages 14 13 0.1 0.6 0.01
01.2.1 Coffee, tea and cocoa 4 3 0.7 -0.2 -
01.2.2 Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices 10 10 -0.2 0.8 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to mineral waters, soft drinks and juices; where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for fruit squash and fruit smoothies.

  • Partially offset by small downward contributions from packs of cola flavoured drinks and packs of fruit drink bottles.

02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 42 44 0.4 0.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small downward contribution from tobacco.

02.1 Alcoholic beverages

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02.1 Alcoholic beverages 18 20 -0.4 -0.2 -
02.1.1 Spirits 5 6 -0.1 1.6 0.01
02.1.2 Wine 9 9 -0.2 -1.1 -0.01
02.1.3 Beer 4 5 -1.1 -0.9 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.   

  • There is a small upward contribution from spirits, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from whisky and vodka.

  • Offset by a small downward contribution from wine, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for New World red and white wine.

02.2 Tobacco

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02.2 Tobacco 24 24 0.9 0.7 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.  

03 Clothing and footwear

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03 Clothing and footwear 65 68 1.2 1.0 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to footwear.

03.1 Clothing

  Weight 2012   Weight 2013   1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03.1 Clothing 56 59 1.2 1.2 -
03.1.2 Garments 52 54 1.3 1.2 -
03.1.3 Other clothing and clothing accessories 3 4 1.3 1.1 -
03.1.4 Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing 1 1 - 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

03.2 Footwear including repairs

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03.2 Footwear including repairs 9 9 0.8 - -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago.

04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 144 137 0.1 - -0.03

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to actual rentals for housing.

04.1 Actual rentals for housing

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.1 Actual rentals for housing 64 62 0.4 0.1 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Average rental fees rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from Registered Social Landlord (RSL) rents.     

04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling 14 16 -0.2 -0.2 -
04.3.1 Materials for maintenance and repair 8 9 -0.4 -0.5 -
04.3.2 Services for maintenance and repair 6 7 - 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

04.4 Other services related to the dwelling

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.4 Other services related to the dwelling 10 11 - - -
04.4.1 Water supply 5 6 - - -
04.4.3 Sewerage collection 5 5 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 

04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels 56 48 -0.1 -0.1 -
04.5.1 Electricity 20 19 -0.4 - 0.01
04.5.2 Gas 32 26 - - -
04.5.3 Liquid fuels 3 2 1.1 -3.0 -0.01
04.5.4 Solid fuels 1 1 0.9 1.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.    

  • There is a small upward contribution from electricity, where prices overall were little changed this year but fell a year ago.

  • Offset by a small downward contribution from liquid fuels, where the price of kerosene fell this year but rose a year ago.

05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 61 59 -0.6 -0.4 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to household appliances, fitting and repairs; goods and services for routine maintenance; and tools and equipment for house and garden.

  • Partially offset by furniture, furnishings and carpets; and household textiles.

05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets 20 20 -0.3 -2.0 -0.04
05.1.1 Furniture and furnishings 16 16 -1.3 -1.4 -
05.1.2 Carpets and other floor coverings 4 4 3.9 -4.1 -0.03

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to carpets and other floor coverings, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for tufted carpets.

05.2 Household textiles

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.2 Household textiles 7 8 -0.6 -1.2 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago. 

05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs 9 9 -1.8 1.4 0.03
05.3.1/2 Major appliances and small electric goods 8 8 -1.8 1.9 0.03
05.3.3 Repair of household appliances 1 1 -2.3 -2.3 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to major appliances and small electric goods, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from automatic washing machines, fridge freezers and gas cookers. 

05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils 5 5 1.5 1.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden 5 4 -1.5 0.5 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 
  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for power point sockets.

05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance 15 13 -0.6 0.6 0.02
05.6.1 Non-durable household goods 6 5 -0.9 -0.1 0.01
05.6.2 Domestic services and household services 9 8 -0.3 1.1 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Non-durable household goods, where prices fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for household cleaner, partially offset by a small downward contribution from dishwasher tablets; and

  • Domestic services and household services; where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from nanny fees. 

06 Health

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06 Health 24 25 0.2 -0.2 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to hospital services.

  • Partially offset by medical products, appliances and equipment.

06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment 10 10 -1.3 1.1 0.02
06.1.1 Pharmaceutical products 6 6 -1.7 0.7 0.01
06.1.2/3 Other medical and therapeutic equipment 4 4 -0.6 1.7 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to pharmaceutical products; and other medical and therapeutic equipment.

Pharmaceutical products

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for antihistamine tablets.

Other medical and therapeutic equipment

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for condoms.

06.2 Out-patient services

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.2 Out-patient services 5 6 0.1 0.1 -
06.2.1/3 Medical and paramedical services 3 3 0.2 0.1 -
06.2.2 Dental services 2 3 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

06.3 Hospital services

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.3 Hospital Services 9 9 1.8 -1.6 -0.03

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to hospital inpatient services, where charges overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

07 Transport

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07 Transport 162 148 -0.1 -1.5 -0.21

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  • Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to operation of personal transport equipment; transport services; and purchase of vehicles.   

07.1 Purchase of vehicles

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.1 Purchase of vehicles 43 38 1.1 - -0.04
07.1.1A New cars 24 21 - - -
07.1.1B Second-hand cars 16 14 2.9 0.1 -0.04
07.1.2/3 Motorcycles and bicycles 3 3 0.2 - -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to second-hand cars, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment 89 81 -0.2 -1.5 -0.11
07.2.1 Spare parts and accessories 5 5 - 1.4 0.01
07.2.2 Fuels and lubricants 46 40 -0.6 -3.1 -0.10
07.2.3 Maintenance and repairs 22 22 -0.1 -0.2 -
07.2.4 Other services 16 14 0.5 -0.1 -0.01

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to fuels and lubricants; and, to a lesser extent, other services.

  • Partially offset by spare parts and accessories.

Spare parts and accessories

  • Small upward effect.   

  • Prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago.

Fuels and lubricants

  • Large downward effect.  

  • The average price of petrol across the month, as recorded for the CPI, fell by 4.9 pence per litre between September and October 2013 to stand at 131.6 pence per litre.

  • Last year, the average price of petrol fell by 0.9 pence per litre between September and October 2012 to stand at 138.1 pence per litre.

  • The average price of diesel fell by 2.9 pence per litre between September and October 2013 to stand at 139.0 pence per litre, compared with a fall of 0.6 pence last year to stand at 143.2 pence per litre.

Other services

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

07.3 Transport services

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.3 Transport services 30 29 -1.4 -3.3 -0.06
07.3.1 Passenger transport by railway 9 9 -0.7 -0.7 -
07.3.2 Passenger transport by road 12 13 0.1 -0.1 -
07.3.3 Passenger transport by air 8 6 -3.5 -11.2 -0.06
07.3.4 Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway 1 1 -6.7 -6.8 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

  • Due to passenger transport by air, where average air fares fell this year by more than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from long haul and, to a lesser extent, European and domestic routes.

08 Communication

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08 Communication 27 31 0.2 0.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 

08.1 Postal services

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08.1 Postal services 1 2 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.    

08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services 26 29 0.2 0.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

09 Recreation and culture

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09 Recreation and culture 134 141 0.4 0.2 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to other recreational items, gardens and pets.

  • Partially offset by audio-visual equipment and related products; and books, newspapers and stationery.

09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products 23 23 0.1 0.9 0.02
09.1.1 Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures 6 6 -1.1 1.1 0.01
09.1.2 Photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment 4 3 -2.1 -1.8 -
09.1.3 Data processing equipment 6 7 0.2 -1.5 -0.01
09.1.4 Recording media 6 6 2.2 5.4 0.02
09.1.5 Repair of audio-visual equipment and related products 1 1 0.2 -0.6 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to recording media; and equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures.

  • Partially offset by data processing equipment.

Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures

  • Small upward effect.  

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for televisions.

Data processing equipment

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for laptop computers and PC peripherals.  Partially offset by personal computers, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

Recording media

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from DVD films and CDs purchased via the internet.

09.2 Other major durables for recreation and culture

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.2.1/2 Major durables for in/outdoor recreation 10 9 - 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change. 

09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets 35 32 0.6 -1.3 -0.06
09.3.1 Games, toys and hobbies 20 19 0.6 -2.3 -0.06
09.3.2 Equipment for sport and open-air recreation 3 3 0.4 1.2 -
09.3.3 Gardens, plants and flowers 4 4 1.6 -0.4 -0.01
09.3.4/5 Pets, related products and services 8 6 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

  • Due to games, toys and hobbies; and, to a lesser extent, gardens, plants and flowers.

Games, toys and hobbies

  • Large downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from computer games, computer games consoles and children’s soft toys.

Gardens, plants and flowers

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for potted shrubs.

09.4 Recreational and cultural services

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.4 Recreational and cultural services 29 29 0.6 0.5 -
09.4.1 Recreational and sporting services 8 9 -0.5 -0.5 -
09.4.2 Cultural services 21 20 1.1 1.0 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery 13 14 -0.1 1.3 0.02
09.5.1 Books 3 4 1.4 4.4 0.01
09.5.2 Newspapers and periodicals 5 5 -1.9 -0.7 0.01
09.5.3/4 Misc. printed matter, stationery, drawing materials 5 5 0.8 0.8 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to books; and newspapers and periodicals.

Books

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago.

Newspapers and periodicals

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago.

 

09.6 Package holidays

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.6 Package holidays 24 34 0.4 0.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

10 Education

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
10 Education 19 21 19.1 8.2 -0.18

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Charges overall rose this year by less than a year ago, the downward contribution came principally from UK and EU student tuition fees , where the impact on the CPI of the rise in the cap for tuition fees introduced last year for new UK and EU students in England was smaller this year than in 2012.  The smaller impact was due to the fact that many students were already paying the higher rate of fees.  In addition there are more modest price increases for part-time and postgraduate fees compared to last year. 

11 Restaurants and hotels

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11 Restaurants and hotels 114 117 - 0.2 0.03

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.      

  • Due to accommodation services; and catering services.

11.1 Catering services

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11.1 Catering services 97 98 0.1 0.2 0.01
11.1.1 Restaurants and cafes 86 88 - 0.2 0.01
11.1.2 Canteens 11 10 0.4 0.1 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to restaurants and cafes, where prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago.

11.2 Accommodation services

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11.2 Accommodation services 17 19 -0.7 0.4 0.02

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Charges overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for hotel overnight stays.

12 Miscellaneous goods and services

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12 Misc. goods and services 96 103 - -0.2 -0.03

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to financial services not elsewhere covered; and personal care.

  • Partially offset by other services not elsewhere covered.

12.1 Personal care

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.1 Personal care 28 28 -0.4 -0.6 -0.01
12.1.1 Hairdressing and personal grooming establishments 8 7 0.1 -0.2 -
12.1.2/3 Appliances and products for personal care 20 21 -0.6 -0.7 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago.

12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered 13 13 0.5 0.2 -
12.3.1 Jewellery, clocks and watches 8 8 0.3 0.1 -
12.3.2 Other personal effects 5 5 0.9 0.4 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

12.4 Social protection

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.4 Social protection 13 14 0.3 0.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.        

12.5 Insurance

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.5 Insurance 8 8 -0.3 -0.5 -
12.5.2 House contents insurance 3 2 -0.4 -0.2 -
12.5.3 Health insurance 2 2 4.1 -1.9 -0.01
12.5.4 Transport insurance 3 4 -3.4 0.1 0.01

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small downward contribution from health insurance, where average premiums fell this year but rose a year ago.

  • Offset by a small upward contribution from transport insurance, where average premiums for car insurance rose this year but fell a year ago.

12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered 23 30 0.4 -0.5 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Charges overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from ATM charges and mortgage arrangement fees. 

12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered 11 10 -0.4 0.6 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Charges overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

RPI summary

Contributions to the change in the RPI annual rate

GROUPS      Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FOOD 114 116 0.5 0.3 -0.03
CATERING 47 47 0.2 0.1 -
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 56 61 -0.1 0.1 0.01
TOBACCO 29 30 0.9 0.7 -
HOUSING 237 254 0.4 - -0.09
FUEL AND LIGHT 46 43 -0.1 -0.2 -
HOUSEHOLD GOODS 62 60 -0.1 -0.8 -0.05
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES 67 62 5.1 1.7 -0.23
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 45 43 1.1 1.3 0.01
PERSONAL GOODS AND SERVICES 39 40 - -0.3 -0.01
MOTORING EXPENDITURE 131 122 -0.1 -1.3 -0.15
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS 23 18 -0.9 -2.8 -0.03
LEISURE GOODS 33 30 0.2 0.2 -
LEISURE SERVICES 71 74 0.5 0.5 -

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RPI notable movements

RPI notable movements

All items RPI Annual rate +2.6%, down from +3.2% last month
  Also +2.6% in September 2012
  Last lower in December 2009 (+2.4%)
All items RPI exc MIPS (RPIX) Annual rate +2.7%, down from +3.2% last month
  Lowest since September 2012 (+2.6%)
All items RPI exc MIPS and indirect Annual rate +2.8%, down from +3.4% last month
taxes (RPIY) Lowest since September 2012 (+2.6%)
Tobacco Annual rate +6.5%, down from +6.6% last month
  Also +6.5% in March 2010
  Last lower in December 2009 (+4.5%)
Personal goods and services Annual rate +2.0%, down from +2.3% last month
  Lowest since March 2006 (+1.8%)
All goods Annual rate +2.3%, down from +2.9% last month
  Also +2.3% in April 2013 and June 2012
  Last lower in September 2009 (+1.7%)
All services Annual rate +3.1%, down from +3.7% last month
  Lowest since September 2012 (+2.8%)
Petrol and oil Annual rate -4.2%, down from -0.9% last month
  Lowest since September 2009 (-7.1%)

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RPI detailed briefing

In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, the Retail Prices Index and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. ONS consulted in March 2013 on whether to maintain this detailed RPI briefing and, based on views received, decided to continue with its publication.

  • Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the RPI.

Food

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FOOD 114 116 0.5 0.3 -0.03

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to non-seasonal food and seasonal food.

Seasonal food

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
SEASONAL FOOD 19 20 1.8 1.1 -0.01
Home killed lamb 1 1 4.8 0.9 -
Fresh fish 2 2 3.8 6.9 0.01
Eggs 1 1 -1.0 0.8 -
Unprocessed potatoes 2 2 6.1 -0.2 -0.01
Other fresh vegetables 7 7 -0.4 -0.3 -
Fresh fruit 6 7 2.1 1.1 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.  

  • Due to unprocessed potatoes, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for old white potatoes.

  • Partially offset by a small upward contribution from fresh fish, where prices overall rose this year.

Non-seasonal food

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
NON-SEASONAL FOOD 95 96 0.3 - -0.02
Bread 4 5 0.3 -1.2 -0.01
Cereals 4 4 0.4 -1.0 -0.01
Biscuits and cakes 7 7 -0.3 1.8 0.01
Beef 4 4 0.6 -0.7 -0.01
Imported lamb 1 1 -0.2 -3.9 -
Pork 1 1 -1.0 3.0 -
Bacon 2 2 -0.6 1.7 -
Poultry 4 4 1.2 -0.3 -0.01
Other meat 7 7 0.3 -0.3 -
Processed fish 2 2 3.5 0.7 -0.01
Butter 1 1 - 1.0 -
Oils and fats 2 2 2.0 3.4 -
Cheese 4 3 -0.7 0.6 -
Milk, fresh 4 4 0.4 0.2 -
Milk products 4 4 -0.5 -2.0 -0.01
Tea 1 1 1.6 3.9 -
Soft drinks 11 12 -0.1 0.8 0.01
Sugar and preserves 1 1 -0.4 -0.4 -
Sweets and chocolates 11 13 1.8 1.1 -0.01
Potato products 3 3 0.6 -1.3 -0.01
Processed vegetables 2 2 -3.0 -0.5 0.01
Processed fruit 2 1 0.7 0.6 -
Other foods 11 11 -0.3 -1.4 -0.01
Coffee and other hot drinks 2 1 0.1 -2.7 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Bread, cereals, beef, poultry and potato products, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from white sliced bread, rotisserie cooked chickens and premium potato crisps;

  • Processed fish and sweets and chocolates, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from bars of chocolate and bags of sweets.  Partially offset by boxes of chocolates; and

  • Milk products and other foods, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from frozen pizza,  chilled ready meals and chocolate covered ice cream bars.  Partially offset by a small upward contribution from mayonnaise.

  • Partially offset by:  

  • Biscuits and cakes and soft drinks, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from individual cakes, fruit squash and fruit smoothies.  Partially offset by a small downward contribution form packs of cola flavoured drinks and packs of fruit drink bottles; and

  • Processed vegetables, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago.

Catering

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
CATERING 47 47 0.2 0.1 -
Restaurant meals 27 27 0.1 0.2 -
Canteen meals 3 4 0.2 -0.5 -
Take-away meals and snacks 17 16 0.2 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.         

Alcoholic drinks

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 56 61 -0.1 0.1 0.01
Beer on sales 21 21 -0.2 0.2 0.01
Beer off sales 5 5 -0.8 -0.1 -
Wines and spirits on sales 16 20 - 0.3 0.01
Wines and spirits off sales 14 15 -0.1 -0.3 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Beer on sales, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago: and  

  • Wines and spirits on sales, where prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago. 

Tobacco

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
TOBACCO 29 30 0.9 0.7 -
Cigarettes 25 26 0.9 0.8 -
Other tobacco products 4 4 0.4 0.4 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.       

Housing

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSING 237 254 0.4 - -0.09
Rent 75 86 0.4 0.1 -0.03
Mortgage interest payments 29 29 2.5 -0.3 -0.08
Council tax and rates 41 43 - - -
Water and other charges 13 14 - - -
Repairs and maintenance charges 9 10 - 0.1 -
DIY materials 8 7 -0.8 -0.2 0.01
Dwelling insurance and ground rent 6 7 -0.8 -0.2 -
House depreciation 56 58 -0.2 0.1 0.01

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Mortgage interest payments, where average charges fell this year but rose a year ago; and

  • Rent, where average charges rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for Registered Social Landlords (RSL) rents.

  • Partially offset by:

  • DIY materials, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago; and

  • House depreciation, with the smoothed house price index used to calculate this component rising this year but falling a year ago.

Fuel and light

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FUEL AND LIGHT 46 43 -0.1 -0.2 -
Coal and solid fuels 1 1 0.9 1.1 -
Electricity 21 20 -0.5 - 0.01
Gas 21 19 - - -
Oil and other fuels 3 3 0.9 -2.5 -0.01

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small upward contribution from electricity, where prices overall were unchanged this year but fell a year ago.

  • Offset by a small downward contribution from oil and other fuels, where kerosene prices fell this year but rose a year ago. 

Household goods

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSEHOLD GOODS 62 60 -0.1 -0.8 -0.05
Furniture 22 21 -1.2 -1.6 -0.01
Furnishings 9 9 3.6 -4.5 -0.08
Electrical appliances 6 6 -2.0 2.6 0.03
Other household equipment 4 4 1.5 0.8 -
Household consumables 13 12 -0.2 0.9 0.01
Pet care 8 8 -0.1 -0.1 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Furnishings, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for carpets; and

  • Furniture, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from sofa beds, partially offset by a small upward contribution from home office desks.  

  • Partially offset by:

  • Electrical appliances, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for fridge freezers, automatic washing machines and smart phone handsets; and 

  • Household consumables, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for household cleaners and toilet rolls.  Partially offset by dishwasher tablets, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Household services

   Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES 67 62 5.1 1.7 -0.23
Domestic services 13 13 -0.1 0.5 0.01
Fees and subscriptions 29 24 11.8 4.2 -0.24
Postage 1 1 - - -
Telephone charges 24 24 0.3 0.2 -0.01

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  • Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Fees and subscriptions, where charges overall rose this year by less than a year ago, the downward contribution came principally from UK and EU student tuition fees, where the impact on the RPI of the rise in the cap for tuition fees introduced last year for new UK and EU students in England was smaller this year than in 2012.  The smaller impact was due to the fact that many students were already paying the higher rate of fees.  In addition there are more modest price increases for part-time and postgraduate fees compared to last year; and

  • To a lesser extent, telephone charges where average charges rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from bundled telecommunication services.  Partially offset by a small upward contribution from mobile telephone charges.

  • Partially offset by domestic services, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for nanny fees.

Clothing and footwear

  Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 45 43 1.1 1.3 0.01
Men’s outerwear 9 9 1.8 1.9 -
Women’s outerwear 16 16 1.3 2.0 0.01
Children’s outerwear 5 5 1.2 -0.1 -0.01
Other clothing 6 5 0.5 0.3 -
Footwear 9 8 0.3 0.5 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to women’s outerwear, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from women’s casual outer jackets and waterproof jackets.  Partially offset by small downward contributions from formal trousers and non-branded jeans.

  • Partially offset by children’s outerwear, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Personal goods & services

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
PERSONAL GOODS & SERVICES 39 40 - -0.3 -0.01
Personal articles 10 10 0.2 0.3 -
Chemists' goods 15 15 -0.6 -0.2 0.01
Personal services 14 15 0.6 -0.8 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to personal services, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for private health subscriptions.

  • Partially offset by chemists’ goods, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from deodorant and condoms.  Partially offset by a small downward contribution from perfume/eau de toilette, where prices fell this year but rose a year ago. 

Motoring expenditure

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
MOTORING EXPENDITURE 131 122 -0.1 -1.3 -0.15
Purchase of motor vehicles 39 34 1.6 - -0.06
Maintenance of motor vehicles 20 19 - 0.3 0.01
Petrol and oil 47 45 -0.4 -3.8 -0.16
Vehicle tax and insurance 25 24 -2.3 0.1 0.06

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:

  • Petrol and oil, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago. The price of petrol, as recorded for the RPI, fell by 6.0 pence per litre between September and October 2013, to stand at 131.6 pence per litre, compared with a fall of 0.7 pence per litre last year to stand at 138.2 pence per litre. Diesel prices fell by 3.9 pence per litre, to stand at 138.8 pence per litre in October 2013, compared with a fall of 0.6 pence per litre last year to stand at 143.1 pence per litre; and

  • Purchase of motor vehicles, where prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, particularly for used cars.

  • Partially offset by:

  • Vehicle tax and insurance, where average premiums for car insurance rose this year but fell a year ago; and

  • Maintenance of motor vehicles, where prices rose this year but were little changed a year ago. 

Fares and other travel costs

    Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS 23 18 -0.9 -2.8 -0.03
Rail fares 6 6 -0.5 -0.7 -
Bus and coach fares 4 4 0.2 -0.3 -
Other travel costs 13 8 -1.4 -5.4 -0.03

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to other travel costs, where average charges fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for air fares with the main downward contribution coming from long haul and, to a lesser extent, European and domestic flights.

Leisure goods

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
LEISURE GOODS 33 30 0.2 0.2 -
Audio-visual equipment 7 6 -1.1 - -
CDs and tapes 3 3 2.1 5.0 0.01
Toys, photographic and sports goods 10 9 0.1 -1.3 -0.01
Books and newspapers 8 7 -0.8 0.8 0.01
Gardening products 5 5 1.7 -0.2 -0.01

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There are small upward contributions coming from books and newspapers, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago and CDs and tapes, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago with the main upward contribution coming from DVD films.

  • Offset by small downward contributions from toys, photographic and sports goods and gardening products, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for computer games and potted shrubs.

Leisure services

     Weight 2012 Weight 2013 1 month % change Oct-12 1 month % change Oct-13 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
LEISURE SERVICES 71 74 0.5 0.5 -
TV licence and rentals 12 13 1.7 1.0 -0.01
Entertainment and other recreation 17 15 0.3 0.6 -
Foreign holidays 33 35 0.4 0.4 -
UK holidays 9 11 -0.1 - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small downward contribution from TV licence and rentals, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from subscription to satellite television.

Reconciliation of CPI and RPI

(Table 5 of the Consumer Price Inflation Reference Tables) (1.24 Mb Excel sheet)

This table identifies the main factors contributing to the differences between the unrounded inflation rates for the CPI and the RPI. These differences are broken down into: mortgage interest payments, other housing components excluded from the CPI, other differences in the coverage of goods and services, and the formula effect. The final column titled ‘other differences including weights’ is derived as a residual.

The difference between the CPI and RPI unrounded annual rates in October 2013 was -0.36 percentage points, narrowing from -0.47 percentage points in September 2013.

The main factors contributing to the narrowing were:

  • Mortgage interest payments, which decreased the RPI 12-month rate in October by 0.08 percentage points but is excluded from the CPI.

  • Other differences including weights, which decreased the RPI 12 month rate relative to the CPI 12 month rate by 0.07 percentage points between September and October 2013. The effect came mainly from fuel and lubricants and education. 

  • Formula effect, which decreased the RPI 12 month rate relative to the CPI 12 month rate by 0.03 percentage points between September and October 2013. The effect came mainly from furniture, household equipment and maintenance partially offset by clothing and footwear.

  • Partially offsetting this narrowing effect were:

  • Other differences in coverage of goods and services, which increased the RPI 12 month rate relative to the CPI 12 month rate by 0.04 percentage points. The effect came from several items which are in the CPI but not in the RPI.

  • Housing components excluded from the CPI, which increased the RPI 12 month rate relative to the CPI 12 month rate by 0.02 percentage points. The effect came mainly from house depreciation which is not included in the CPI.

RPI miscellaneous data

Selected average prices

Description                                August 2013 September 2013 October 2013
Petrol per litre Diesel £1.42 £1.43 £1.39
Petrol £1.37 £1.38 £1.32
Alcohol pub prices Draught bitter (pint) £2.87 £2.88 £2.88
Draught lager (pint) £3.30 £3.31 £3.31
Whisky (per nip) £2.46 £2.47 £2.47
Cigarettes Per 20 king size £7.79 £7.87 £7.94

Table notes:

  1. Average prices are as recorded for the RPI.

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Changes in Mortgage Interest Rates

This table gives an estimate of the contribution that changes in the average mortgage interest rate (MI) make to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

Changes in mortgage interest rates

Month     1-month % change in the RPI Approx. change in average MI rate Approx. contribution to the 1-month % change  in the RPI
October 2012 +0.6 Up +0.07% points +0.06% points
November 2012 +0.0 Down -0.08% points -0.07% points
December 2012 +0.5 Up +0.01% points +0.01% points
January 2013 -0.4 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
February 2013 +0.7 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
March 2013 +0.4 Negligible -
April 2013 +0.3 Negligible -
May 2013 +0.2 Negligible -
June 2013 -0.1 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
July 2013 +0.0 Negligible -
August 2013 +0.5 Negligible -
September 2013 +0.4 Negligible -
October 2013 +0.0 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points

Table notes:

  1. A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approx 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

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Outlook

The outlook is a summary of seasonal trends, selected news cuttings and other sources of information. It gives some indication of expected changes to the annual rate of the CPI and RPI in the next few months.

FOOD

Seasonal food
  • Seasonal food prices in the CPI have tended to rise in November in recent years.

Food

Seasonal food

Monthly % change for CPI seasonal food index  
Year September October November
2007 0.9 2.6 0.5
2008 -0.8 1.6 4.2
2009 -2.2 2.1 3.6
2010 -0.7 0.4 3.0
2011 0.8 -1.6 1.8
2012 -0.1 0.9 2.5
2013 1.1 0.1  

Table notes:

  1. Seasonal food prices in the RPI tend to show a similar movement.

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CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR

  • Prices for clothing and footwear historically have tended to rise in November following mid-season sales in October.

Clothing and footwear

Monthly % change for CPI clothing and footwear index
Year September October November
2007 1.6 - 0.5
2008 2.2 -0.6 -
2009 3.6 -0.4 0.6
2010 6.4 -0.7 2.0
2011 4.4 0.8 1.2
2012 4.7 1.2 0.6
2013 4.2 1.0

Table notes:

  1. The clothing and footwear group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

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ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS

  • SSE (Scottish and Southern Energy plc) has announced it will increase average prices for both household electricity and household gas by 8.2% on 15 November 2013. (bbc.co.uk 10 October 2013)

  • British Gas has announced electricity bills will go up by 10.4%, gas will rise by 8.4% from 23 November (bbc.co.uk 17 October 2013)

  • Npower has announced electricity price rises of 9.3% and a gas price rise of 11.1% from 1 December.  (bbc.co.uk 21 October 2013)

  • Scottish Power to raise gas prices by 8.5% and electricity prices by 9% from 6 December (bbc.co.uk 24 October 2013)

FURNITURE, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND MAINTENANCE

  • Prices tend to rise in November following mid-season sales in October.  However, prices unusually fell in November 2012.

Furniture, household equipment and maintenance

Monthly % change for CPI furniture, household equipment and maintenance index
Year September October November
2007 1.8 -1.2 0.8
2008 1.6 -1.0 0.7
2009 1.6 -0.8 0.9
2010 1.7 -1.0 1.6
2011 1.2 -0.6 1.0
2012 0.5 -0.6 -0.1
2013 0.2 -0.4

Table notes:

  1. The household goods group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

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TRANSPORT

Fuels and Lubricants

  • Brent crude oil steadied around $104 a barrel on Friday, near its lowest since early July, as Western powers stepped up work towards a deal with Iran over its nuclear programme that could bring some relief in sanctions. (uk.reuters.com 8 November 2013)

  • When considering the price of petrol between October and November 2013, it may be useful to note that the average price of petrol fell by 3.0 pence per litre between October and November 2012, to stand at 135.1 pence per litre as measured in the CPI.

  • A 1 pence change on average in the cost of a litre of road fuel contributes approximately 0.03 percentage points to the 1-month change in the CPI.

Passenger transport by Air

  • Historically air fares tend to fall in November.  

Passenger transport by air

Monthly % change for CPI air fares index
Year September October November
2007 -28.1 4.3 -13.3
2008 -19.3 -6.2 -4.9
2009 -23.8 1.5 -2.6
2010 -27.8 2.7 -6.4
2011 -21.2 -6.0 -7.5
2012 -25.2 -3.5 -8.3
2013 -18.8 -11.2

Table notes:

  1. The air fares index used in the RPI is the same as that used in the CPI, and is included in the other travel costs section.

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HOUSING (RPI)

Mortgage interest payments (MIPs)

  • The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% on Thursday 7 November 2013.

  • The change in average mortgage interest rates recorded in the RPI was -0.08% between October and November 2012. The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% in October 2012.

  • A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approximately 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

Contacts

Media contact:

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Email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

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Tel: Richard Campbell +44 (0) 1633 651536

Email: richard.campbell@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Website: www.ons.gov.uk

Email: cpi@ons.gsi.gov.uk

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Tel: +44 (0) 1633 456961

CPI/RPI Enquiries:

Tel: +44 (0) 1633 456900

Background notes

  1. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

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