Statistical bulletin: Output in the Construction Industry, June and Q2 2012

Headline Figures (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted)

• The total volume of construction output in the second quarter of 2012 fell by 3.9 per cent compared with the first quarter of 2012.
• The total volume of construction output in the second quarter of 2012 fell by 9.5 per cent compared with the same quarter in 2011.
• The volume of all new work fell by 4.6 per cent and repair and maintenance fell by 2.7 per cent compared with the first quarter of 2012.
• The volume of all new work fell by 12.8 per cent compared with the same quarter in 2011 while repair and maintenance fell by 2.8 per cent.
• There were widespread falls in the volume of construction output in the second quarter of 2012 when compared with the first quarter of 2012. There were falls in eight of the nine sectors, with the largest decrease in new infrastructure, which fell by 8.6 per cent.
• The movement of the late May 2012 bank holiday to June 2012, the additional bank holiday for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and the unseasonal weather were likely contributing factors to the decline in the second quarter of 2012.

Introduction

This bulletin shows output in the construction industry for the second quarter of 2012. Most comparisons are in constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted. The overall estimate for construction output this quarter was 3.9 per cent lower compared with the previous quarter, reflecting volume reductions in eight out of the nine sectors. The largest of these reductions was in new infrastructure work, which fell by 8.6 per cent.

Further breakdowns, including non-seasonally adjusted and current price series, can be found in the data tables (641.5 Kb Excel sheet) . This publication focuses on the latest quarterly figures, but also includes the latest annual and monthly estimates as well as revisions to earlier periods in line with our revisions policy.

Changes Since the Forecast Used in the Q2 2012 Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate

As outlined in the article Statistical Special Events in Quarter Two 2012, the preliminary estimate of quarter two 2012 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) included a nowcast fall of 7.0 per cent (current price, non-seasonally adjusted) in construction output between May and June. This nowcast, combined with estimates for April and May, when deflated and seasonally adjusted resulted in an estimated fall in construction output of 5.2 per cent (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted) between quarter one and quarter two 2012.

The estimates released in this publication show that construction output fell by 4.4 per cent between May and June in current prices, non seasonally adjusted terms; and therefore by 3.9 per cent between quarter one and quarter two 2012 (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted).

The estimated impact on quarter two 2012 GDP from this release of construction output data is an upwards revision of 0.1 percentage points. As usual, construction data will continue to be subject to revisions due to late responses to the survey and revisions to seasonal adjustment factors.

Output in the Construction Industry

Construction Output (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Construction: Output & Employment - Office for National Statistics

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New work in the second quarter of 2012 fell by 4.6 per cent compared with quarter one, with all sectors showing a decrease. The largest fall was in infrastructure (8.6 per cent), while private commercial - the biggest sector - showed the smallest fall, decreasing by 0.6 per cent.

Repair and maintenance work fell by 2.7 per cent, with falls in both the public (2.6 per cent) and private (7.7 per cent) housing sectors. Partly offsetting these falls was a small increase (0.1 per cent) in non-housing repair and maintenance.

Over the year from the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, there was a 9.5 per cent fall in the total volume of construction output. There were decreases in all types of new work, which as a whole fell by 12.8 per cent over this period.

The largest falls in new work were seen in public housing (25.0 per cent), infrastructure (24.8 per cent) and other public non-housing (21.2 per cent). Repair and maintenance output fell by 2.8 per cent over the same period, with a drop of 8.5 per cent in repair and maintenance for private housing and a fall of 3.9 per cent for public housing. This was slightly offset by non housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 0.8 per cent.

Over recent periods, public sector output has been decreasing while private sector output has remained relatively flat. However, the decrease in this quarter is more evenly spread, with falls in private housing output for both new work and repair and maintenance and also falls in new private commercial and industrial work.

Construction output (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted)

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

1. R- Revised since April 2012 publication

New housing

The volume of new private housing work in the second quarter of 2012 was 8.1 per cent lower compared with the previous quarter and 6.7 per cent lower compared with the same quarter in 2011.

The volume of new work in the public housing sector in the second quarter of 2012 was 7.6 per cent lower than the previous quarter and 25.0 per cent lower compared with the same quarter in 2011.

 

New Housing (constant prices (2005), seasonally adjusted)

Source: Construction: Output & Employment - Office for National Statistics

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New public and private infrastructure

The volume of new infrastructure output in the second quarter of 2012 was 8.6 per cent lower compared with the previous quarter and 24.8 per cent lower compared with the same quarter in 2011.

 

New Public and Private Infrastructure (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Construction: Output & Employment - Office for National Statistics

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New public non-housing (excluding infrastructure)

The volume of new work in the public non-housing sector (excluding infrastructure) in the second quarter of 2012 was 4.2 per cent lower compared with the previous quarter and 21.2 per cent lower compared with the same quarter in 2011.

 

New Public Non-Housing Excluding Infrastructure (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Construction: Output & Employment - Office for National Statistics

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New private non-housing (excluding infrastructure)

The volume of new construction work in the private industrial sector in the second quarter of 2012 was 1.9 per cent lower compared with the previous quarter and 6.9 per cent lower compared with the same period in 2011.

The volume of new private commercial output in the second quarter of 2012 was 0.6 per cent lower compared with the previous quarter and 3.8 per cent lower compared with the same quarter in 2011.

 

New Private Non-Housing Excluding Infrastructure (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Construction: Output & Employment - Office for National Statistics

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Housing repair and maintenance

The volume of housing repair and maintenance work (including improvement work) in the public sector in the second quarter of 2012 was 2.6 per cent lower compared with the previous quarter and 3.9 per cent lower compared with the same period in 2011.

Housing repair and maintenance work in the private sector in the second quarter of 2012 was 7.7 per cent lower compared with the previous quarter and 8.5 per cent lower compared with the same period in 2011.

 

Housing Repair and Maintenance (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Construction: Output & Employment - Office for National Statistics

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Non-housing repair and maintenance

The volume of repair and maintenance work in the non-housing sector in the second quarter of 2012 was 0.1 per cent higher compared with the previous quarter and 0.8 per cent higher compared with the same period in 2011. The introduction of an infrastructure repair and maintenance question in only 2010 means that we do not yet have sufficient data to produce seasonally adjusted series for the components of this series.

 

Non-Housing Repair and Maintenance (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Construction: Output & Employment - Office for National Statistics

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Revisions

In general revisions will follow the standard revisions policy for construction statistics shown in the table below.

Revisions Policy

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Revisions to the output series for the last 12 months were also due to revised and late responses from respondents.

Revisions Table (constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted

Great Britain

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

1. * Revised since April 2012 publication

Background notes

1. Special Events Policy

   As part of the celebrations for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee there were changes to bank holidays in May and June 2012, as outlined on direct.gov.uk

   The late May bank holiday, which would have fallen in the period covered by this publication, has been moved to June and an additional day's holiday has been added. The second quarter of 2012 also experienced unseasonal weather. The change to the holidays has been classified as a statistical special event in line with ONS's policy on Special Events.

   As such, caution should be taken when interpreting the movements in affected outputs involving May and June 2012.

2. Matched pairs estimation of growth in the construction industry

   In estimating the output in the construction industry, ONS uses robust methods in line with international good practice. Each month estimates of output are requested from a statistically representative stratified sample of 8,000 businesses. To produce total construction industry estimates, survey responses are weighted to the construction industry population on the Inter-Departmental Business Register (which covers all business registered for PAYE or VAT), deflated and seasonally adjusted. A full description of the methodology used is available in the Construction Quality and Methodology Information (161.5 Kb Pdf) paper.

   If we take the responses for businesses which were included in the construction industry sample for each of the months January to June 2012 (around 5,500 businesses in total), we can add the responses to give quarterly values, and show how the activity of these businesses changed between quarter one and quarter two. Table 12, in the spreadsheet in the data section (641.5 Kb Excel sheet) of this release, shows the numbers of businesses with a reduction in activity between quarter one and quarter two, and the numbers showing an increase or no change. It also shows the unweighted change in the value of activity corresponding to these reductions and increases. This approximates what might be obtained by an unweighted quarterly panel survey of businesses in the construction industry (often referred to as matched pairs).

3. Changes to Construction Statistics

   In June 2009 ONS announced major changes to the arrangements for producing construction statistics and indicated that the changes would take effect from the beginning of 2010. From January 2010, a new Monthly Business Survey replaced the quarterly output surveys for construction, and a quarterly new orders survey replaced the previous monthly new orders survey.

4. Relevance to users

   The statistical bulletin brings together information on the output of the construction industry in Great Britain. It draws on data compiled from the Monthly Business Survey, with businesses selected from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR). The construction industry, which contributes to the overall estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by approximately 7.6 per cent, covers Sections 41, 42 and 43 of the Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (excluding section 41.1 (property developers)).

   Similar data for Northern Ireland is provided by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

   Information relating to employment in the construction industry is available in the Labour Market Statistics Statistical Bulletin.

5. Accuracy

   Revisions to previous periods: Figures for the recent months are provisional and subject to revision as later information becomes available.

6. Deflation and seasonal adjustment

   'Value' of construction output is also known as 'current price' or 'nominal price' construction output. 'Volume' of construction output is also known as 'constant price' construction output. A volume series aims to measure the level of construction output, adjusting for price inflation, allowing comparisons of activity to be made between periods. The headline data are given in constant 2005 prices, seasonally adjusted. Deflators adjust the value series to take out the effect of price changes to give the volume series. Deflation of output is carried out sectorally, and a range of relevant tender price and output price indices are used. 

   Seasonal adjustment aids interpretation by removing annually recurring fluctuations, for example, due to climate, hours of daylight, holidays or other regular seasonal patterns. Unadjusted data are also available.

   Seasonally adjusted monthly estimates will not be available until enough monthly data are available for this to be done reliably. After 3 years of estimates are available, ONS will review if it is feasible at that point.

7. User feedback

   As a user of our statistics, we would welcome your feedback on this release, in particular on the content, format and structure. Please send feedback to the following postal or e-mail address:

   Construction Statistics, Room 2001, Office for National Statistics, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport, Gwent, NP10 8XG

   E-mail: construction.statistics@ons.gsi.gov.uk

8. Usage licence

   You may use or re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit The National Archives or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4D, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk

9. Pre-release access

   A list of the names of those given 24 hour pre-release access to the information contained within this summary is available on the  Output in the Construction Industry: Pre-Release Access List (82.2 Kb Pdf) .

10. Quality

    A report on basic quality information (response rates, standard errors etc.) is published in table 11 of the construction output spreadsheet.

    A Quality Report for the construction output survey (161.5 Kb Pdf) can be found on the ONS website.

11. Publication timetable

    The content of the construction output monthly publication varies as shown in the table below:

    Period	What is published	Timing of publication
    End of quarter month (March, June, September and December)	Statistical release plus excel  spreadsheet consisting of tables  1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 and 11	Second Friday, 2 months after the end of the reference month
    One month after the end of quarter month (April, July, October and January)	Output summary plus excel spreadsheet consisting of tables 1 to 11	Second Friday, 2 months after the end of the reference month
    Two months after the end of quarter month (May, August,  November and February)	Output summary plus excel spreadsheets consisting of tables 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 11	Second Friday, 2 months after the end of the reference month

    Table 1	Volume of construction output in Great Britain: constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted index numbers - by sector
    Table 2	Volume of construction output in Great Britain: constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted - by sector
    Table 3	Volume of construction output in Great Britain: constant (2005) prices, non seasonally adjusted - by sector
    Table 4	Value of construction output in Great Britain: current prices, non seasonally adjusted - by sector
    Table 5	Value of new construction output in Great Britain: current prices - by type of work
    Table 6	Value of new construction output in Great Britain: current prices - by region
    Table 7	Volume of construction output in Great Britain: constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted growth rates - by sector
    Table 8	Volume of construction output in Great Britain: constant (2005) prices, non seasonally adjusted growth rates - by sector
    Table 9	Output price indices (2005 = 100)
    Table 10	Value of construction output in Great Britain: current prices - by size band
    Table 11	Basic quality report
    Table 12	Matched-pairs analysis

     

12. Further information

    Spreadsheets containing the data published in this Statistical Bulletin, as well as further breakdowns, basic quality information, matched pairs analysis and previous ONS releases can be found on the ONS website.

    Releases on construction output and employment prior to the transfer to ONS can be found on the BIS website.

    Related releases on new orders for construction in Great Britain are published on the ONS website.

    The Construction Statistics Annual publication brings together a wide range of statistics that are currently available on the construction industry from a number of different sources. 

    ONS launched a new website on 28 August 2011 which has improved the way users can access our statistics. However, many existing bookmarks and links no longer work and users will need to update them.

13. Following ONS

    Follow ONS on Twitter (@statisticsons) and Facebook (statisticsons).

    View the latest podcasts on YouTube (ONSstats)

14. Publication policy

    Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the Media Relations Office.

    National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

    Results of the survey held in April 2011 regarding users' satisfaction and use of the construction output and new orders surveys can be found on the ONS website.

    The Consultative Committee on Construction Industry Statistics (CCCIS) is a forum that meets, usually twice a year, under the auspices of BIS. ONS is a member of this forum. Agenda and minutes of CCCIS meetings can be found on the BIS web site.

15. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

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