In constant (2005) prices, non-seasonally adjusted, the total volume of construction output in July 2012 is estimated to have been 10.1 per cent lower than in July 2011.
Comparing the three months from May to July 2012 with the same three months one year ago (constant (2005) prices, non-seasonally adjusted) we see that:
The volume of construction output decreased by 10.0 per cent. New work decreased by 14.2 per cent and repair & maintenance decreased by 1.2 per cent.
Over the same period:
The volume of new infrastructure work decreased by 23.9 per cent.
New public housing decreased by 22.4 per cent; and new public other work (excluding infrastructure) decreased by 21.5 per cent.
Three sectors showed positive growth; infrastructure repair & maintenance (3.5 per cent), private industrial new work (1.5 per cent) and private non-housing (excluding infrastructure) repair & maintenance (0.7 per cent).
As we do not have enough data to seasonally adjust the monthly data we focus in this release on the year-on-year changes as described above. However, it is perhaps worth noting that the volume of construction output non-seasonally adjusted, increased by 2.2 per cent between June and July 2012. This compares with falls between the two same months in 2010 and 2011 of 1.4 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively.
This month, we have also produced an ad hoc analysis of public and private housing work.
Users should also be aware that, in line with our usual revisions policy, later responses to the survey, as well as updated deflators and seasonal adjustment factors, have led to revisions for the previous 12 months. The largest revision in constant (2005) prices, seasonally adjusted terms was in quarter two 2012 where the estimate has been revised up from a decrease of 3.9 per cent to a decrease of 3.0 per cent.
The estimated impact on quarter two 2012 GDP from this release of construction data is an upwards revision of 0.1 percentage points. As usual, construction data will continue to be subject to revisions due to late responses to the survey and revisions to seasonal adjustment factors.
Tables giving historic and other more detailed breakdowns of the data are available in the reference tables (31 Kb Excel sheet) published with this summary.
Source: Office for National Statistics
An article outlining the ONS policy on special events is available.
Queens Diamond Jubilee
As part of the celebrations for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee there were changes to bank holidays in May and June 2012. The late May bank holiday moved into June, and there was an additional day's holiday. The change to the holidays counts as a statistical special event in line with ONS's policy on Special Events. Caution should be taken when interpreting the movements in affected outputs that involve May and June 2012.
Olympics and Paralympics
The Olympics took place from 27 July to 12 August 2012 (with a few events starting on 25 July). The Paralympics began on 29 August and continue to 9 September. For most economic statistics, any direct effect of the Olympics will be mainly seen in the August estimates. Some July estimates may also be affected, particularly:
changes to travel patterns,
additional short-term employment connected with the Olympics,
inclusion of a proportion of ticket receipts in output and overseas trade.
Wider effects, for example if the presence of the Olympics has influenced the number of non-Olympics tourist visits, may of course affect any of the summer months. This commentary is intended to help users to interpret the statistics in the light of events. As explained in ONS’s Special Events policy, it is not possible to make an estimate of the effect of the Olympics and Paralympics on particular series only on the basis of information collected in those series. More details of how certain series are affected are in an Information Note, and an article explaining how various elements are reflected in the National Accounts was published in July 2012.
Changes to Construction Statistics
In June 2009 ONS announced major changes to the arrangements for producing construction statistics and indicated that the changes would take effect from the beginning of 2010. From January 2010, a new Monthly Business Survey replaced the quarterly output surveys for construction, and a quarterly new orders survey replaced the previous monthly new orders survey.
Copies of the survey questionnaire are also available on the ONS website.
Deflation and seasonal adjustment
'Value' of construction output is also known as 'current price' or 'nominal price' construction output. 'Volume' of construction output is also known as 'constant price' construction output. A volume series aims to measure the level of construction output, adjusting for price inflation, allowing comparisons of activity to be made between periods. The headline data are given in constant 2005 prices, seasonally adjusted. Deflators adjust the value series to take out the effect of price changes to give the volume series. Deflation of output is carried out sectorally, and a range of relevant tender price and output price indices are used.
Seasonally adjusted monthly estimates will not be available until enough monthly data are available for this to be done reliably. After 3 years of estimates are available, ONS will review if it is feasible to introduce a seasonally adjusted series.
Further information and user feedback
As a user of our statistics, we would welcome feedback on this release, in particular on the content, format and structure. For further information about this release, or to send feedback on our publications, please contact Kate Davies:
Telephone: +44 (0)1633 456344
Office for National Statistics,
Date of next Output in the Construction Industry publication: 12th October 2012.
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The user engagement section of the ONS website contains copies of the survey questionnaire.
A list of the names of those given 24 hour pre release access to the information contained within this summary is available on the Output in the Construction Industry: Pre-Release Access List (81.6 Kb Pdf) .
More details can be found in the Quality and Methodology Information paper on the ONS website.
Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: email@example.com
These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.