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Improved Methodology for Estimating Immigration to Local Authorities in England and Wales

Release date: 17 November 2011

As part of the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (MSIP), ONS has introduced a major improvement to the methodology for producing local authority long-term migration estimates within England and Wales.

The improved method uses a range of administrative sources to directly distribute the national England and Wales long-term immigration total to local authorities.

These improvements have been made possible through improved access to administrative data. This new approach replaces the current method which uses modelled estimates from the International Passenger Survey (IPS).

This release contains a range of information including:

  • documentation describing the improved methodology

  • indicative local authority long-term immigration figures based on the improved method for the last five years (mid-2006 to mid-2010)

  • indicative local authority population estimates for the last five years (mid-2006 to mid-2010)

  • a range of supporting tables and analysis

Pre-release access for LA immigration estimates (27 Kb Pdf)

Implementation of the improvements

ONS intends to use this improved methodology as the basis for estimating local authority long-term immigration rolling forward from the 2011 mid-year population estimates, which will be based on the 2011 Census.

The improved  mid-year population estimates are indicative in nature because they are designed to show users the impact on local authorities of incorporating the improved immigration estimates.

ONS will not be revising official population estimates at this stage, as this will have to be done again following the 2011 Census.

Therefore, the current mid-year population estimates, (that is, those published in June 2011) will remain the official series.

However, ONS does intend to incorporate the improved immigration estimates into the 2010-based subnational population projections, which will be made available for the next local authority funding settlement.

Users’ views

ONS would welcome the views of users on this new methodology, the local authority long-term migration estimates as well as views on the indicative mid-year population estimates.

Any comments should be e-mailed to imps@ons.gsi.gov.uk no later than 20 January 2012.

Feedback opportunity on Subnational Population Projections

There will be no separate user-consultation for the 2010-based subnational population projections (SNPPs), as these projections will be rebased following the publication of the 2011 Census results.

If you wish to comment on the trends that will be used to produce the projections, please use this opportunity to provide us with your feedback.

A departure from the trend-based approach may be considered, but only where the calculated trend observed in migration is demonstrably biased due to an atypical observation and where clear evidence is provided by the local authority in question.

Comments should be mailed to imps@ons.gsi.gov.uk no later than 20 January 2012.

Key documentation

Detailed Long-term Migration methodology papers

Tables and charts

Indicative long-term immigration estimates (covering all local authorities in England and Wales):

  • Table A (261.5 Kb Excel sheet) . Indicative Local Authority Immigration Impacts by Year (mid-2006 to mid-2010)
  • Tables B1 to B4 (200 Kb Excel sheet) . Top 20 Largest Upward / Downward Indicative Revisions to Immigration (mid-2006 to mid-2010)
  • Table C (10.83 Mb Excel sheet) . Comparisons of Current and Indicative Immigration Estimates with Administrative Sources
  • Table D (553.5 Kb Excel sheet) . Analysis of Indicative Immigration Estimates by Broad Stream (mid-2006 to mid-2010)
  • Table E (195 Kb Excel sheet) . Indicative Revisions Analysis by Geography (mid-2006 to mid-2010)

Indicative population estimates (covering all local authorities in England and Wales, broken down by sex and single year of age):

  • Tables F1 to F5 (4.84 Mb ZIP) . Indicative Population Estimates for Years Mid-2006 to Mid-2010
  • Tables G1 and G2 (1.55 Mb ZIP) . Mid-2006 to Mid-2010 estimates, unformatted data pre-2009 (Table G1), and post-2009 (Table G2) local authorities
  • Table H (188.7 Kb ZIP) . Total Impact of Indicative Estimates, Mid-2006 to Mid-2010 

Following user demand Table I was extended on 1 December 2011 to include information on impact by type of adjustment for each individual year, in addition to the existing cumulative mid-2006 to mid-2010 totals:

  • Table I (749 Kb Excel sheet) . Impact by Type of Adjustment, Mid-2006 to Mid-2010
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