Request
Information about the rise of the population in the Bradford district – if it is driven by immigration and/or rising birth rates ?
What is the current trend and what are the projections?
Response
In response to your request under the Freedom of Information act (reference FOI1423) regarding the population of Bradford local authority district (referred to as Bradford throughout this analysis).
Over the period mid-2001 to mid-2010 (the latest year for which population estimates are available) the population of Bradford increased by 41,900 from 470,800 to 512,600. Table 1, available in the Downloads section, shows the different components of population change and the contribution each makes to the overall population increase during the 9 year period.
The main components of population change are natural change (the difference between births and deaths), net international migration (inflows minus outflows) and net internal migration (moves within the UK):
-
Natural change added 30,800 persons to the population of Bradford over the period. Annual levels of natural change have been slowly increasing from approximately 2,500 in the year to mid-2002 to 4,300 in the year to mid-2010
-
Net international migration added a total of 34,000 persons over the period and has been fairly consistent with a mean of approximately 3,800 persons per year
-
Net internal migration resulted in a loss of population of -23,000 in Bradford between mid-2001 and mid-2010. This has also been consistent across the period with a mean annual reduction of approximately -2,600
Total net migration (including both international and internal moves) accounts for 11,000 of the population increase over the period, only 26 per cent of the total population increase. Therefore, recent trends have shown natural change to be a more significant driver of population increase in Bradford compared to total migration.
Further information about recent trends in the population estimates and the components of change are available in the population estimates analysis tool (2.65 Mb ZIP) .
The 2010-based subnational population projections are the latest projection figures available. These show that the population of Bradford is projected to increase by 99,100, over the 25 year period, to 604,000 persons in mid-2035. They are trend-based projections, which means assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels mainly over the previous five years. Therefore, projected trends show that natural change continues to be the more significant driver of population increase in Bradford compared to total net migration over the 25 year period to mid-2035.
Further information about trends in the population projections are available in Table 5 published as part of the 2010-based subnational population projections release (3.15 Mb Excel sheet)
Background Information
Population estimates and projections are National Statistics and are available from the ONS website at the following links:
The 2010-based subnational projections presented in this analysis were produced using the estimates and trends from a set of indicative population estimates for mid-2006 to mid-2010. These indicative estimates were published as part of a research report in November 2011 under the second phase of the Migrations Statistics Improvement Programme. They incorporate improvements to migration methodologies that are not included in the official mid-year population estimates quoted in this analysis. As a result the indicative mid-2010 population estimate for Bradford used as the base for the projections is lower than the official mid-2010 population estimate shown in the attached Table 1 (504,900 compared to 512,600).
