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Guide to period and cohort life expectancy

Expectations of life can be calculated in 2 ways: “period life expectancy” or “cohort life expectancy”.

Period life expectancy at a given age for an area is the average number of years a person would live, if he or she experienced the particular area’s age-specific mortality rates for that time period throughout his or her life. It makes no allowance for any later actual or projected changes in mortality. In practice, death rates of the area are likely to change in the future, so period life expectancy does not therefore give the number of years someone could actually expect to live. Also, people may live in other areas for at least some part of their lives.

Cohort life expectancies are calculated using age-specific mortality rates that allow for known or projected changes in mortality in later years and are thus regarded as a more appropriate measure of how long a person of a given age would be expected to live, on average, than period life expectancy.

For example, period life expectancy at age 65 in 2000 would be worked out using the mortality rate for age 65 in 2000, for age 66 in 2000, for age 67 in 2000, and so on. Cohort life expectancy at age 65 in 2000 would be worked out using the mortality rate for age 65 in 2000, for age 66 in 2001, for age 67 in 2002, and so on.

Period life expectancies are a useful measure of mortality rates actually experienced over a given period and, for past years, provide an objective means of comparison of the trends in mortality over time, between areas of a country and with other countries. Official life tables in the UK and in other countries which relate to past years are generally period life tables for these reasons. Cohort life expectancies, even for past years, usually require projected mortality rates for their calculation and hence, in such cases, involve an element of subjectivity.

Period life expectancies are sometimes mistakenly interpreted by users as allowing for subsequent mortality changes. Period life expectancy answers the question “For a group of people aged x in a given year, how long would they live, on average, if they experienced the age-specific mortality rates above age x of the period in question over the course of their remaining lives?”

The cohort life expectancy answers the question “For a group of people aged x in a given year, how long would we expect them to live, on average, if they experienced the actual or projected future age-specific mortality rates not from the given year but from the series of future years in which they will actually reach each succeeding age if they survive?” If mortality rates at age x and above are projected to decrease in future years, the cohort life expectancy at age x will be greater than the period life expectancy at age x.

 

Content from the Office for National Statistics.
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