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2011 Census Analysis

Census analysis video - Childbearing of UK and non-UK born women living in the UK, 2011 Census data

Video covering fertility patterns for UK born and non-UK born women, including examination of EU countries. More 2011 Census analysis videos are available on the ONS YouTube channel.


Transcript – Fertility Podcast (January 2014)

This is a transcript of the video podcast which can be viewed at:

Slide 1:

This is a short video looking at fertility rates for non-UK born women living in England and Wales, using data from the 2011 Census.

Slide 2:

First we will look at the number of births that occurred in England and Wales in each year between 2001 and 2011, using this chart. As you can see the number of births in England and Wales increased from 595 thousand in 2001 to 724 thousand in 2011.

The number of births can be broken down into those to UK born women and those to non-UK born women, as shown in this next chart.

The number of births to UK born women increased from 496 thousand births in 2001, to 540 thousand in 2011, an increase of 8.5%.

The number of births to non-UK born women increased from 97 thousand births in 2001, to 185 thousand in 2011, an increase of 88.5%.

Births alone do not provide the whole picture, and so we will look at an important measure of fertility for comparing groups, the total fertility rate, or TFR.

Slide 3:

TFR is a measure of how many births on average we would expect from a group if current fertility patterns were experienced for their whole childbearing lives. The TFR of UK born women was estimated at 1.56 for 2001 and for non-UK born women it was 2.22. So based on 2001 rates we would expect women born outside the UK to have on average 0.66 more births than women born in the UK.

However, by 2011 the gap had narrowed as the TFR of UK born women had increased to 1.84 but for non-UK born women it had remained stable and in 2011 was 2.21. This means by 2011 the gap was only 0.37 births per woman.

Slide 4:

We will now look at the non-UK born groups living in England and Wales in more detail for 2011.

All of the TFRs we are looking at are for women born in these regions, but living in England and Wales. The TFR of women may be very different in their country of origin.

Firstly we look at women born in Europe, which we have broken down into EU15 A12 (the 12 accession countries which joined the EU between 2001 and 2011) and non-EU.

The women born in the EU 15 countries have the lowest TFR in Europe with 1.51 births per woman, and the women born in A12 countries, encompassing the countries which have joined the EU since 2001, have a TFR of 2.19. Non-EU born women have a TFR of 1.90, very similar to UK born women.

Looking now at wider world regions, the highest TFR is for women born in Africa, with 2.76 births per woman.

Women born in Asia and the Middle East also have higher TFRs compared to UK born women, whereas women born in the Americas and Caribbean have the same TFR on average as UK born women.


Slide 5:

We have just shown that the fertility of non-UK born women are not all the same and that women born in different regions have different fertility levels. We will now look at the fertility rates of women born in EU countries, to show the variation that exists within world regions.

This chart shows the TFRs of women born in EU countries living in England and Wales in 2011. The size of the circles is proportional to the number of births that group of women had in England and Wales in 2011, from the largest, Poland with 20 thousand births, and a TFR of 2.13 to the smallest Luxembourg with 21 births , and a TFR of 1.28.

If we now add in the other EU countries TFRs, we can see that for the two countries with the largest number of births in England and Wales, that being Poland and Germany, Poland has a TFR above the UK TFR of 1.84, whereas Germany is below the UK TFR.

These are quite different to the TFR of women born in Romania with a TFR of 2.93, roughly one more child per woman than the UK born women.

If we bring on the dotted red line which shows the EU average TFR we can see that
the TFRs for women born in some southern European countries, such as Spain or Italy, is roughly half that of the EU overall.


Analysis helps users fully exploit the census data by pulling out the key stories, adding context, comparing areas and regions, and explaining trends over time.
Ian Cope, Director for Population and Demography, Office for National Statistics
Content from the Office for National Statistics.
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